‘Cottage industry’: Gurus say nuclear no match for solar energy
Hans van Leeuwen https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/cottage-industry-gurus-say-nuclear-no-match-for-solar-energy-20231013-p5ebxp
Hans van Leeuwen covers British and European politics, economics and business from London. He has worked as a reporter, editor and policy adviser in Sydney, Canberra, Hanoi and London. Connect with Hans on Twitter. Email Hans at hans.vanleeuwen@afr.com
London | The debate on nuclear power is a distraction from solar, which is about to tip into exponential growth that will sweep aside all other energy sources, say Australia’s much-garlanded pair of leading solar inventors.
Andrew Blakers and Martin Green, often dubbed the “fathers of photovoltaics”, described nuclear energy as “a cottage industry”, with no chance of reaching economies of scale in any useful timeframe.
Solar, though, “is going to take over energy it is in a way that will be utterly astonishing for most people”, Professor Blakers said.
“It is going to do it as fast as we went from film photography to digital photography. In the space of 20 years, basically we’re going to flip from solar being a few per cent to solar being everything but a few per cent. It really is the fastest energy change in all of history by a large margin,” he said.
The two men were in London to collect the latest in a string of prizes for their work on PERC solar photovoltaic technology, which has brought down the cost of solar panels by 80 per cent in the past decade.
At Buckingham Palace on Thursday (Friday AEDT), the King awarded them and their colleagues Aihua Wang and Jianhua Zhao with the Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering.
Professor Green described nuclear as “pie in the sky” – including the small modular reactor technologies that have enthused the British government and the opposition in Australia as countries race to transition to green energy.
“They are going to have a few prototypes up by 2030, but it really needs the economy of volume to get the prices down to where they’re projecting,” he said. “So you need to be selling hundreds of these things, not just a few sample ones.”
He also said that the history of power generation had been about reducing costs by making things bigger. “It’s going against historical trend, I think, imagining that you can do things cheaply by making a lot of [smaller ones].”
Professor Blakers said nuclear was simply not in the net-zero race. “This year, it looks like the world will do about 500 gigawatts of solar and wind – maybe 400 gigawatts of solar, 100 gigawatts of wind. Hydro will do about 20 gigawatts, nuclear will do approximately one, gas and coal maybe 50,” he said.
“Solar has been growing at 20 per cent a year for a long time. If it continues to grow at this level, we will completely decarbonise the world by the early 2040s. This is how fast it’s happening. It’s so cheap compared with anything else.”
Nuclear, meanwhile, had not increased its capacity in the past 13 years, he said, adding no more than a gigawatt a year.
“You cannot grow an industry from one to multi-thousand gigawatts, which is what you’d need per year, in any reasonable timeframe. It’s impossible unless you put it on a war footing,” he said.
“You just don’t have enough engineers, scientists, raw materials, the factories, the factories to build the factories, the factories to build the factories to build the factories – it just doesn’t happen.”
Grids: the big hurdle
Both men were convinced that battery technologies and costs would continue to fall, driving increasingly rapid growth. The one big obstacle in Australia was transmission.
“Basically, you need a lot of new transmission to bring the new solar and wind into cities. And we’re not building it,” Professor Blakers said.
“Transmission only becomes important once you get up to 30, 40 per cent solar-wind. We’re currently 33 per cent solar-wind, and we will be 75 per cent by 2030. We don’t have a transmission problem yet. But in two years’ time, we’ll have a major one, and everyone can see that.”
He said initiatives to increase compensation to land owners should overcome the remaining community resistance.
Professor Green said the growth of solar energy use would not unseat China’s dominance of the supply chain for solar panels.
“Solar is basically going to demolish the market for coal and gas. And the geopolitical question is whether India, Europe and the US would tolerate having 80 or 90 per cent of the global solar industry coming out of China,” he said.
“It’s very hard to see other countries competing with China. The momentum they’ve got.”
He said India might become a major manufacturer, but its industry’s development would not be as co-ordinated and co-operative as China’s had been.
China, though, would have to address the demand of its customers for higher environmental and social standards – creating an opportunity for Australia to become a player in providing green-friendly metallurgical-grade silicon. #nuclear #antinuclear #NuclearFree #NoNukes #NuclearPlants
Endless electricity and water use: the Artificial-Intelligence-Blockchain-Data Centre -Nuclear-NuScale nightmare to come
Blockchain biz goes nuclear: Standard Power wants to use NuScale reactors for DCs
Please, no crypto boom, thank you
The Register, Tobias Mann, Sun 8 Oct 2023 #nuclear #anti-nuclear #nucler-free #NoNukes
Colocation outfit Standard Power hopes to power two new datacenters in Ohio and Pennsylvania entirely by miniaturized nuclear reactors from NuScale.
Standard Power makes no secret it focuses on providing datacenter services to not just those into AI workloads and other kinds of high-performance computing but also those performing proof-of-work blockchain mining, the kind needed to craft digital tokens like Bitcoin. The significant energy requirements of this type of blockchain work spurred an investigation by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy last year, and calls by lawmakers to implement reporting and/or sustainability requirements for such operations.
Generally speaking, a datacenter packed with proof-of-work miners is going to demand a chunky amount of power. Concerned it may not get adequate electricity supplies for its new facilities, which by the sounds of it will support blockchain mining as well as other workloads, Standard Power said it hopes to take the nuclear option.
“We see a lot of legacy baseload grid capacity going offline with a lack of new sustainable baseload generation options on the market especially as power demand for artificial intelligence-computing and datacenters is growing,” Standard Power CEO Maxim Serezhin said in a statement.
And the colo outfit’s Ohio and Pennsylvania datacenters may need or get a lot of power. The company expects to deploy 24 of NuScale’s small modular reactors between the two sites. These reactors are reportedly capable of generating 77 megawatts apiece — putting the total deployed capacity at 1,848 megawatts.
Despite the announcement, it may be a few years before Standard Power can realize its nuclear dreams. As we learned in January, Idaho National Labs will be among the first to demonstrate NuScale’s reactors, and the first of these modules isn’t expected to come online until 2029. We asked Standard Power when it expects its facilities will be operational; we’ll let you know if we hear anything back…………………………………..
Standard Power is hardly the first datacenter operator to get excited about nuclear power, either. Cumulus Data opened a datacenter next to a nuclear plant — the full-size kind — in January and last month we learned that Microsoft is now hiring someone to potentially deploy SMR systems to power its growing cloud enterprise. https://www.theregister.com/2023/10/08/standard_power_nuclear_datacenter/
Wind and solar are only forms of power generation rising globally, study finds.
Independent, Stuti Mishra 8 Oct 23,
China leads the charge by contributing to 43 per cent of the global
growth in solar energy generation.
. Electricity data from 78 countries that
represented 92 per cent of global electricity demand for the first half of
2023 was analysed in the study released by environmental think-tank Ember
on Thursday. It found that while overall emissions remained stable, with a
slight 0.2 per cent increase, wind and solar power generation surged ahead.
Independent 6th Oct 2023
Chart: China’s solar export dominance grows with surging European orders
#nuclear #antinuclear #nuclear-free #NoNukes
China’s solar export dominance grows with surging European orders. The
country produces 80 percent of the world’s solar panels, and Europe is
now buying over half of the panels it exports.
Canary Media 29th Sept 2023
Microsoft May Go Nuclear to Support Its Energy-Hungry AI.
powering that AI is extraordinarily costly, even more so than its other cloud-based products. Microsoft’s latest sustainability report noted that the company’s water consumption has increased 30% year over year in order to keep its AI supercomputers cool.
Kyle Barr, September 28, 2023 https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/09/microsoft-may-go-nuclear-to-support-its-energy-hungry-ai/
Artificial intelligence has proved a costly endeavour—well, yes, in terms of money, but AI requires massive amounts of energy, and water consumption to operate at scale. That hasn’t stopped big tech companies such as Google and Microsoft from putting that energy-hungry AI into practically every single one of their user and enterprise end-products. Big daddy Microsoft has been trying to keep its (OpenAI-assisted) lead in the AI rat race, and it may need to grab the fuel rod by both hands if it wants to continue its big AI ambitions.
And when we say fuel rod, we mean it literally. Microsoft put out calls for a program manager on “Nuclear Technology” on Monday. As first reported by CNBC, The job specifically mentions that this new initiative would use “microreactors” and “Small Modular Reactors” to power the data centres used by Microsoft Cloud and AI. Whatever it is, the scope for Microsoft’s nuclear AI could be “global” as Microsoft has Azure data centres in all parts of the globe.
Microsoft declined to comment on any plans for future nuclear endeavours. The company instead linked to past blog posts on company sustainability initiatives. It’s unclear what plans Microsoft may have for nuclear-powered AI. The position references that the nuclear program manager would build a “roadmap for the technology’s integration,” which would also mean selecting partners for developing and implementing how the hell the tech giant would facilitate nuclear.
Small Modular Reactors, or SMRs, are a proposed class of reactors that would be a purportedly smaller version of a full-on nuclear plant with a smaller power capacity. The idea is they can be built in one location and then moved to a separate site. There are only a few prototype SMRs implemented in Places like Russia and China, though the U.S. Office of Nuclear Energy only approved its first SMR design in January this year.
Back in May, Microsoft signed a power purchase agreement with nuclear fusion startup Helion set to start in 2028. That’s different than an SMR, which still uses fission to generate power, and while there have been some recent successes with fusion this past year, we still could be a long way off from any kind of energy pivot.
Microsoft has spent the last year implementing generative AI into practically every one of its software products. Most recently, the Redmond, Washington company announced its AI copilot for Windows 11 to act as a kind of virtual assistant on a desktop. Court documents have shown that Microsoft has been looking for ways to implement more AI capabilities on its Azure cloud platform.
But powering that AI is extraordinarily costly, even more so than its other cloud-based products. Microsoft’s latest sustainability report noted that the company’s water consumption has increased 30% year over year in order to keep its AI supercomputers cool. Microsoft has put billions of dollars into a partnership with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, and the Redmond company now being forced to power and cool its partner’s growing energy needs to train OpenAI’s latest models. Training GPT-3 consumed enough water to fill a full nuclear reactor’s cooling tower, according to one recent study.
Studies have shown AI is responsible for massive amounts of carbon emissions, and OpenAI’s GPT-3 model was responsible for CO2 emissions than most other large language models. The company’s GPT-4 model is purportedly 1,000 times more powerful than GPT-3.5 and was trained on nearly four times as much data. Running a larger AI model would require several times as much power as smaller models, and AI companies aren’t slowing down.
Solar and wind farms can easily power the UK by 2050, scientists say
A team at the University of Oxford claims that the two technologies could provide ten times our present need
Adam Vaughan, Environment Editor, Tuesday September 26 2023, The Times
Wind and solar power could comfortably supply all the UK’s energy needs by the middle of the century, according to a University of Oxford team.
The researchers calculated that the two renewable technologies could power the nation even after making a conservative estimate that accounted for the amount of land and sea available, energy storage needs, economics and a high future demand for energy.
The analysis found that the UK has enough wind and solar resources to generate 2,896 terawatt hours a year by 2050, or almost ten times today’s electricity needs.
Shotwick Solar Farm in Deeside covers 220 acres and is the biggest in Britain. Similar farms could provide almost of a fifth of our energy
The vast majority, 73 per cent, would come from offshore wind farms, followed by utility-scale solar in fields at 19 per cent. The Solar Energy Industries Association defines a solar project as utility-scale
if it generates greater than 1 megawatt of
solar energy.
Onshore wind farms, which the government this month promised
to unblock in England by changing planning barriers, would supply about 7
per cent. Solar on rooftops would provide less than 1 per cent, because it
was assumed the technology would be largely confined to the south of
Britain and only for south-facing rooftops.
The paper by the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment said wind and solar had been underestimated in Great Britain, and “predominant narratives that
renewables are too expensive or impractical are wildly out of date”.
Professor Cameron Hepburn, director of the Smith School, said a renewable
powered Britain was now possible because of falling costs of wind and solar
power. He said a recent Royal Society report on energy storage showed the
intermittent nature of renewables could be cost-effectively tackled by
using hydrogen stored in the country’s network of salt caverns. “I
think the public would be stunned that we could power not just the entire
electricity system but the whole energy system of this country with wind
and solar,” Hepburn said.
The country was assumed to need 1,500 terawatts
of energy by 2050, far higher than most other estimates, to ensure the
analysis was conservative. The report assumed 2 per cent of land was given
over to utility-scale solar, 5 per cent of land to onshore wind farms and
10 per cent of the UK’s exclusive economic zone to offshore wind
turbines. Hepburn said wind turbines on land would coexist with farms.
Times 26th Sept 2023
UK risks power supply crunch in January as nuclear plants halt.
Rachel Morison and Elena Mazneva, Bloomberg News, 27 Sept 23
(Bloomberg) — The UK’s National Grid Plc is preparing for a possible power crunch in January as several planned nuclear outages coincide with peak winter demand.
Electricity consumption is projected to climb to a high during the first two weeks of January, just as nuclear availability is forecast to drop, according to National Grid’s winter outlook report published Thursday. Blackouts are a less likely than last winter but can’t be ruled out, the grid’s Electricity Supply Operator said. ………..
Units at Electricite de France SA’s Hartlepool and Torness nuclear stations are scheduled to be offline for work in January, company data show.
National Grid expects it will need to use “operational tools” like market warnings to help balance supply and demand this winter. The network operator has been stress-testing tens of thousands of weather scenarios this winter to ensure it can manage margins, Dyke said. …….. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-risks-power-supply-crunch-in-january-as-nuclear-plants-halt-1.1977313
Renewables boost in Germany: turning the corner after a bad year?
DAVID TOKE, SEP 15, 2023 https://davidtoke.substack.com/p/renewables-boost-in-germany-turning
Germany could be turning a corner after a bad year in 2022 as renewables increase and solar power deployment dramatically increases. 2022 saw coal electricity production increase driven by a mixture of the need to substitute for Russian natural gas and the phase-out of nuclear power. In the first half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022 coal production as a proportion of electricity fell back from 31 per cent to 27 per cent. Renewable energy increased from 48 per cent to 53 per cent. See here.
On top of that solar pv deployment is surging ahead at the rate of over 1 GW a month according to PVMagazine. To put this in context this means that solar pv’s share of electricity production increases by somewhat over 2 per cent per annum. Of course, that’s certainly not enough on its own, but it is a start. Energy Minister Habeck hopes that planning reforms he oversaw will dramatically increase wind power deployment rates. These have been flagging in recent years.
The production of renewable energy is higher in Germany compared to other countries. Rapid progress in renewables growth is set to resume with reforms introduced by the current Government in which the Green Party’s Robert Habeck holds the Economic Affairs and Climate Action portfolio. However Germany is still to recover from the impact of the shutdown of Nordstream 1 gas pipeline from Russia and the big increase in energy costs involved in the pivot away from Russian gas.
Certainly, the embrace of Russia was not a choice favoured by Greens, who argued for energy conservation and renewables instead. But the geopolitical blunder, led by the the SDP’s former Chancellor, Gerhard Schroader, is costing Germany dearly. By contrast there was much greater consensus on phasing out nuclear power after the Fukushima accident in 2011.
The strength of coal interest in Germany has continued, with a completed phase-out now set for 2038. The strength of coal interests in Germany has been much higher compared to the UK because the UK has had (at least in the past) greater availability of cheap gas from the North Sea. Natural gas prices rose for the UK after 2006, but by then most of the coal electricity production had been replaced by natural gas.
There has been a big struggle recently over a heating law. The opposition was fiercely opposed to a mandatory phase-out of gas boilers by 2025. This was ultimately watered down so that, in effect, consumers can still replace gas boilers if there is no provision for local district heating networks.
The provision of district heatimng networks, already a lot more common than in the UK, is to be radically increased. They will be supplied by large-scale heat pumps. It should be mentioned that a law since 2021 effectively bans gas boilers in new buildings – something that is not yet the case in the UK.
Solar energy boost for France
CNR is leading a consortium in the development of “Ombrières
PHotovoltaïquE grand LIneAire”, a solar shading project along the
ViaRhôna cycling route in southern France’s Caderousse department,
alongside the Rhône River.
The pilot project aims to evaluate the
integration of a PV facility into the landscape and assess its energy
performance. The project partners include French cable supplier Nexans,
Schneider Electric, railway operator SNCF, and the SuperGrid Institute.
The PV system will span 900 meters in length and have an installed capacity of
900 kW. It will consist of 30 shaded structures with west-east oriented
solar panels. The consortium will conduct tests on the system’s overall
architecture and the equipment needed for transporting medium voltage
direct current (MVDC) electricity to the delivery point. Construction and
testing are scheduled for the 2025-28 period, following a three-year phase
of engineering studies, research and development (R&D), and prototyping.
PV Magazine 13th Sept 2023
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/09/13/french-consortium-plans-900-kw-solar-cycling-path/
In Australia, big batteries and solar push new boundaries on the grid
The rapid evolution of Australia’s energy system continues apace as the
mild weather of spring and new production benchmarks give voice to the new
capacity that has been added over the past 12 months. As noted earlier this
week, spring is the season for new records because of the good conditions
and moderate demand.
In South Australia on Sunday, solar set a new record
of 120 per cent of local demand in the state (the excess was exported to
Victoria) and on Wednesday and Thursday it was the turn of wind and battery
storage. Wind hit a peak of 141.4 per cent of local demand at 4.35am on
Thursday morning. That wasn’t a record in itself, but the big share of
wind and later solar during the daytime was accompanied by a record amount
of activity from the state’s growing fleet of big batteries.
Renew Economy 14th Sept 2023
Ukraine plans up to 1GW wind farm in Chernobyl nuclear disaster zone
Five years after a small solar farm was built at the site, Ukraine has
unveiled plans to develop a potentially huge wind power plant in the
Chernobyl exclusion zone – the site of the worst nuclear power plant
disaster in world history. Der Spiegel reports that a declaration of intent
was signed this week between German-based developer Notus Energy, the
Ukrainian government and electricity transmission system operator
Ukrenergo, to build an up to 1,000MW wind farm, capable of supplying power
to around 800,000 homes – including in the capital Kyiv.
Renew Economy 13th Sept 2023
Endless energy use needed for endless data storage – so, small nuclear reactors for Sweden
Nuclear-powered campus in Sweden will power data centers
Small modular player Kärnfull Next plans commercial campus at Nyköping
September 11, 2023 By Peter Judge
Swedish nuclear company Kärnfull Next has announced plans for a campus of small modular reactors (SMRs) on the Swedish coast, which will power data centers.
The company plans to build the campus at a site in Nyköping, on the east coast of Sweden, where nuclear software firm Studsvik currently operates test reactors. It is planned to come on stream in 2030.
DCD has asked Kärnfull for more details, including the type of data center partners the company hopes to engage with…………………………………………
The company is still checking on aspects such as financing, permitting, and the possibility of power purchase agreements with power off-takers, and expects to finalize some decisions on all that towards the end of 2024……………………………………………………………. https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/nuclear-powered-campus-in-sweden-will-power-data-centers/
Windfarm bid withdrawn after Ministry of Defence raises nuclear testing station concerns
Midlothian View, by Local Democracy Reporter, Paul Kelly, Wednesday September 13th 2023
A bid for a domestic windfarm in Hawick has been withdrawn after the Ministry of Defence (MoD) raised concerns over its potential impact on a nearby nuclear testing station.
Scottish Borders Council received a planning application for the erection of a 10.4m high turbine on land south east Of Wynburgh Cottage at Langburnshiels.
But the MoD objected to the application due to its potential impact on the Eskdalemuir Seismological Recording Station.
The normally unmanned station was established by the UK Atomic Energy Authority in 1962 as the British contribution to an international network intended to identify and locate underground nuclear tests and, later, monitor compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty…………………………more https://www.midlothianview.com/news/windfarm-bid-withdrawn-after-mod-raises-nuclear-testing-station-concerns
Could new nuclear kill one of the world’s most promising offshore windmarkets?
Sweden is slated to host some of the biggest projects at sea
globally but its government is talking up the virtues of atomic power,
writes Bernd Radowitz.
Recharge 5th Sept 2023
How a nuclear disaster spurred Fukushima to become a renewables leader
Japan Times, BY FRANCESCO BASSETTI, MINAMISOMA, FUKUSHIMA PREF. – 5 Sept 23
As you reach the coast on Fukushima Prefectural Route 74, which runs between the towns of Minamisoma and Soma, scenes typical of the Japanese countryside — rice paddies and hills blanketed by lush green forests — undergo a swift transformation.
Now, expanses of metal, glass and silicon shimmer in the midday sun, stretching out to a horizon dotted with four white wind turbines, blades humming as they turn in the summer breeze.
Following the 2011 triple disaster — and the subsequent cratering of support for nuclear energy — Fukushima Prefecture has positioned itself at the forefront of Japan’s low-carbon transition.
Few projects better exemplify that than the Minamisoma Mano-Migita-Ebi solar power plant, which was the largest in Fukushima Prefecture until 2019 and is made up of 220,000 solar panels that, if laid end to end, would cover 350 kilometers — roughly the distance between Nagoya and Tokyo. The panels can generate up to 60 megawatts of electricity, enough to power 20,000 households.
Because of projects like the Minamisoma facility, Fukushima Prefecture has claimed the crown as the Tohoku region’s leader in cumulative solar power generation since 2013, and this is a direct consequence of the reconstruction policies that were put in place after the March 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster.
But today, grid connection issues, opposition by incumbent energy companies and a return to nuclear energy in some parts of the country are slowing progress in Fukushima and beyond. In 2022 almost 80% of the increase in total electricity generation in Japan came via fossil fuels — a worrying signal that, although renewable energy generation continues to increase, it is not keeping up with the pace of electrification.
Renewable recovery
Particularly in the coastal areas of Fukushima Prefecture, solar panels have a strong presence: They cover fields, occupy clearings that have been carved out of forests and hillsides, and rest on the rooftops of houses. Cars and trucks brandishing the names of the companies that operate them are a regular feature as they carry equipment and workers along well-kept roads…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
“Recovery plans have always been tied to developing a society that is no longer dependent on nuclear power,” says Masaki Moroi, deputy director of Fukushima Prefecture’s Energy Division.
By the end of 2021, Fukushima Prefecture had covered 47% of its energy demand with renewables, compared with just 23.7% in 2011. That’s a particularly impressive feat when compared with Japan’s national average of just 22.7% in 2022.
“Fukushima took the lead after 2011 because of its direct experience with disaster and clear commitment by policymakers to quit nuclear energy and back renewables,” says Hikaru Hiranuma of the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research.
According to Hiranuma, the single most influential policy in the initial boom in renewable energy was the introduction of a feed-in-tariff program by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in July 2012………………………………………………………………………………………..
Beyond Minamisoma, Fukushima Prefecture implemented policies promoting renewable energy projects in areas affected by the tsunami and nuclear fallout where there were high rates of abandoned land………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. more https://www.japantimes.co.jp/environment/2023/09/05/fukushima-renewable-energy-leader/
1 This Month
To see nuclear-related stories in greater depth and intensity – go to https://nuclearinformation.wordpress.com/
12 February – Webinar The Big Push: New Nuclear Projects in Canada
Thursday, February 12, 7 pm Eastern | 2nd of 4 sessions in the 2026 Nuclear Waste Online webinar series
Join a webinar on the push for new nuclear generation in Canada. Go to Northwatch.org to register or use the registration link https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_ZfWOf1GITqSRIZX8CB-A9w
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