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World faces new danger of ‘economic denial’ in climate fight, Cop30 head says

André Corrêa do Lago says ‘answers have to come from the economy’ as climate policies trigger populist-fuelled backlash

Fiona Harvey Environment editor, Guardian, 28 May25

The world is facing a new form of climate denial – not the dismissal of climate science, but a concerted attack on the idea that the economy can be reorganised to fight the crisis, the president of global climate talks has warned.

André Corrêa do Lago, the veteran Brazilian diplomat who will direct this year’s UN summit, Cop30, believes his biggest job will be to counter the attempt from some vested interests to prevent climate policies aimed at shifting the global economy to a low-carbon footing.

“There is a new kind of opposition to climate action. We are facing a discredit of climate policies. I don’t think we are facing climate denial,” he said, referring to the increasingly desperate attempts to pretend there is no consensus on climate science that have plagued climate action for the past 30 years. “It’s not a scientific denial, it’s an economic denial.”

This economic denial could be just as dangerous and cause as much delay as repeated attempts to deny climate science in previous years, he warned in an exclusive interview with the Guardian.

As the climate crisis has gathered pace, temperatures have risen and the effects of extreme weather have become more obvious, scientists have been able to draw ever more clearly the links between greenhouse gas emissions and our impacts on the planet. So the argument has shifted, Corrêa do Lago believes, from undermining or misrepresenting the science to attempts to counter climate policy.

“It is not possible to have [scientific] denialism at this stage, after everything that has happened in recent years. So there is a migration from scientific denial to a denial that economic measures against climate change can be good for the economy and for people.”

The rise of populist politicians around the world has fuelled a backlash against climate policy, most clearly seen in the presidency of Donald Trump in the US, where he has set about cancelling policies intended to boost renewable energy and cut greenhouse gases, and dismantling all forms of government-sponsored climate-related institutions, including scientific research labs.

Corrêa do Lago wants to spur a new global effort to persuade people that remodelling the economy away from a reliance on fossil fuels and towards a clean energy future will reap benefits for all people. “The new populism is trying to show [that tackling the climate crisis does not work],” he said. “It’s the turn of those who believe in the fight against climate change to show and to prove that fighting climate change is possible, and that it can come with economic advantages and with a better quality of life.”

Corrêa do Lago is an economist by training – the youngest of five brothers, all of whom became economists. “My mother was horrified with our lack of originality,” he joked.

He has been a career diplomat, having joined Brazil’s foreign service in 1983 and serving previously as ambassador to India and Japan. He is also a veteran of the Cop talks – the annual “conference of the parties”, which will take place this year in Belém, near the mouth of the Amazon, in November.

“Most of the answers have to come from the economy,” said Corrêa do Lago. “Because we have now enough science, enough demonstration of how climate change can affect people’s lives. Now we need answers [in the form of policy measures]. We need economists to rally.”

Over the past two decades, economists have begun to take on the challenge of the climate crisis, after the 2006 landmark review by Nicholas Stern, the former chief economist of the World Bank, which found it would be cheaper to tackle emissions than to allow them to run unchecked. That contradicted the conclusions of some previous economists, who had claimed it was not worth trying to move away from fossil fuels, or it would be too expensive.

Since then, multiple reports have proved the same point. Most recently, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UN Development Programme produced a joint report this year, with the final version to come out next month, showing that tackling the climate crisis would materially increase economic growth, rather than being a necessary cost.

But much mainstream thinking on economics does not take the climate crisis into account. Most governments preparing budgets, for instance, do not include climate impacts in their estimates, and nor do businesses. Many of the economic estimates of climate damage are also far too modest. For Corrêa do Lago, this shows that much more needs to be done.

“Climate has not been incorporated into economic theory in a satisfactory way yet,” he said. “Because it’s a very disturbing element.”…………………………………………………………………………………….. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/28/andre-correa-do-lago-cop30-interview-climate-crisis

May 31, 2025 Posted by | climate change | Leave a comment

Earth is heading for 2.7°C warming this century. We may avoid the worst climate scenarios – but the outlook is still dire.

 Is climate action a lost cause? The United States is withdrawing from the
Paris Agreement for the second time, while heat records over land and sea
have toppled and extreme weather events have multiplied.

In late 2015,
nations agreed through the Paris Agreement to try to hold warming well
under 2°C and ideally to 1.5°C. Almost ten years later, cutting emissions
to the point of meeting the 1.5°C goal looks very difficult. But humanity
has shifted track enough to avert the worst climate future.

Renewables,
energy efficiency and other measures have shifted the dial. The worst case
scenario of expanded coal use, soaring emissions and a much hotter world is
vanishingly unlikely. Instead, Earth is tracking towards around 2.7°C
average warming by 2100. That level of warming would represent
“unprecedented peril” for life on this planet. But it shows progress is
being made.

 The Conversation 27th May 2025, https://theconversation.com/earth-is-heading-for-2-7-c-warming-this-century-we-may-avoid-the-worst-climate-scenarios-but-the-outlook-is-still-dire-254284

May 30, 2025 Posted by | climate change | Leave a comment

Is the COP30 climate summit already in crisis, with six months to go?

Mounting concerns about Brazil’s approach to the COP30 climate summit have
observers asking whether the meeting will be able to tackle the difficult
choices involved in curbing emissions. It is now less than six months
before the world’s nations gather in Brazil for the COP30 climate summit,
where observers hope to see key action on halting global warming. But with
skyrocketing accommodation prices, distracted world leaders and accusations
that the meeting’s Brazilian hosts are dodging the difficult topics, is
COP30 in crisis? This year’s meeting is particularly important, coming a
decade after countries struck the Paris Agreement, the landmark climate
deal designed that pledged to keep warming below 2°C or, ideally, 1.5°C.
While the latter goal looks increasingly out of reach, the Paris process
means all nations are required to submit fresh, more ambitious climate
plans this year outlining their strategies to cut emissions up to 2035.
“I think COP30 will be an inflection moment,” says Stela Herschmann at
the Brazilian climate NGO Observatório do Clima.

“We are in a tipping
point for the science – if we really want to keep the 1.5°C [goal]
within reach – we need to accelerate efforts.” But with just months to
go before the summit kicks off, that optimism is under threat. Under
current climate pledges, warming will escalate to 2.6°C by the end of the
century. Campaigners say it is critical that the next round of countries’
climate plans – known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) –
ramp up to bring that number closer to the 2°C upper limit set by the
Paris Agreement.

 New Scientist 20th May 2025, https://www.newscientist.com/article/2480461-is-the-cop30-climate-summit-already-in-crisis-with-six-months-to-go/

May 26, 2025 Posted by | climate change | Leave a comment

Sea level rise will cause ‘catastrophic inland migration’, scientists warn

 Sea level rise will become unmanageable at just 1.5C of global heating and
lead to “catastrophic inland migration”, the scientists behind a new
study have warned.

This scenario may unfold even if the average level of
heating over the last decade of 1.2C continues into the future. The loss of
ice from the giant Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has quadrupled since
the 1990s due to the climate crisis and is now the principal driver of sea
level rise.

The international target to keep global temperature rise below
1.5C is already almost out of reach. But the new analysis found that even
if fossil fuel emissions were rapidly slashed to meet it, sea levels would
be rising by 1cm a year by the end of the century, faster than the speed at
which nations could build coastal defences. The world is on track for
2.5C-2.9C of global heating, which would almost certainly be beyond tipping
points for the collapse of the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets. The
melting of those ice sheets would lead to a “really dire” 12 metres of
sea level rise.

 Guardian 20th May 2025,
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/20/sea-level-rise-migration

May 22, 2025 Posted by | climate change | Leave a comment

Tropical forests destroyed at fastest recorded rate last year

 The world’s tropical forests, which provide a crucial buffer against
climate change, disappeared faster than ever recorded last year, new
satellite analysis suggests. Researchers estimate that 67,000 sq km (26,000
sq mi) of these pristine, old-growth forests were lost in 2024 – an area
nearly as large as the Republic of Ireland, or 18 football pitches a
minute. Fires were the main cause, overtaking land clearances from
agriculture for the first time on record, with the Amazon faring
particularly badly amid record drought. There was more positive news in
South East Asia, however, with government policies helping to reduce forest
loss.

 BBC 21st May 2025,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0lnngl6713o

May 22, 2025 Posted by | climate change | Leave a comment

Want to know how the world really ends? Look to TV show Families Like Ours

John Harris, 1 May 25

The Danish drama is piercing in its ordinariness. In the real world, the climate crisis worsens and authoritarians take charge as we calmly look awaySun 11 May 2025 21.35 AESTShare649

The climate crisis has taken a new and frightening turn, and in the expectation of disastrous flooding, the entire landmass of Denmark is about to be evacuated. Effectively, the country will be shutting itself down and sending its 6 million people abroad, where they will have to cope as best they can. Huge numbers of northern Europeans are therefore being turned into refugees: a few might have the wealth and connections to ease their passage from one life to another, but most are about to face the kind of precarious, nightmarish future they always thought of as other people’s burden.

Don’t panic: this is not a news story – or not yet, anyway. It’s the premise of an addictive new drama series titled Families Like Ours, acquired by the BBC and available on iPlayer. I have seen two episodes so far, and been struck by the very incisive way it satirises European attitudes to the politics of asylum. But what has also hit me is its portrayal of something just as modern: how it shows disaster unfolding in the midst of everyday life. At first, watching it brings on a sense of impatience. Why are most of the characters so calm? Where are the apocalyptic floods, wildfires and mass social breakdown? At times, it verges on boring. But then you realise the very clever conceit that defines every moment: it is really a story about how we all live, and what might happen tomorrow, or the day after.

The writer and journalist Dorian Lynskey’s brilliant book Everything Must Go is about the various ways that human beings have imagined the end of the world. “Compared to nuclear war,” he writes, “the climate emergency deprives popular storytellers of their usual toolkit. Global warming may move too fast for the planet but it is too slow for catastrophe fiction.” Even when the worst finally happens, most of us may respond with the kind of quiet mental contortions that are probably better suited to literature than the screen. Making that point, Lynskey quotes a character in Margaret Atwood’s novel The Year of the Flood: “Nobody admitted to knowing. If other people began to discuss it, you tuned them out, because what they were saying was both so obvious and so unthinkable.”

These days, that kind of thinking reflects how people deal with just about every aspect of our ever-more troubled world: if we can avert our eyes from ecological breakdown, then everything else can be either underestimated or ignored. There is a kind of moment, I would wager, that now happens to all of us. We glance at our phones or switch on the radio and are assailed by the awful gravity of everything, and then somehow manage to instantly find our way back to calm and normality. This, of course, is how human beings have always managed to cope, as a matter of basic mental wiring. But in its 21st-century form, it also has very modern elements. Our news feeds reduce everything to white noise and trivia: the result is that developments that ought to be vivid and alarming become so dulled that they look unremarkable.

Where this is leading politically is now as clear as day. In the New Yorker, Andrew Marantz wrote, in the wake of Trump’s re-election, about how democracies slide into authoritarianism. “In a Hollywood disaster movie,” he writes, “when the big one arrives, the characters don’t have to waste time debating whether it’s happening. There is an abrupt, cataclysmic tremor, a deafening roar … In the real world, though, the cataclysm can come in on little cat feet. The tremors can be so muffled and distant that people continually adapt, explaining away the anomalies.” That is true of how we normalise the climate crisis; it also applies to the way that Trump and his fellow authoritarians have successfully normalised their politics.

Marantz goes to Budapest, and meets a Hungarian academic, who marvels at the political feats pulled off by the country’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán. “Before it starts, you say to yourself: ‘I will leave this country immediately if they ever do this or that horrible thing,’” he says. “And then they do that thing, and you stay. Things that would have seemed impossible 10 years ago, five years ago, you may not even notice.” The fact that populists are usually climate deniers is perfect: just as searingly hot summers become mundane, so do the increasingly ambitious plans of would-be dictators – particularly in the absence of jackboots, goose-stepping and so many other old-fashioned accoutrements. Put simply, Orbán/Trump politics is purposely designed to fit with its time – and to most of its supporters (and plenty of onlookers), it looks a lot less terrifying than it actually is.

Much the same story is starting to happen in the UK. On the night of last week’s local elections, I found myself in the thoroughly ordinary environs of Grimsby town hall, watching the victory speech given by Reform UK’s Andrea Jenkyns, who had just been elected as the first mayor of Greater Lincolnshire. For some reason, she wore a spangly outfit that made her look as if she was on her way to a 1970s-themed fancy dress party, which raised a few mirthless laughs. She said it was time for an end to “soft-touch Britain”, and suddenly called for asylum seekers to be forced to live in tents. That is the kind of thing that only fascists used to say, but it now lands in our political discourse with not much more than a faint thump.

Meanwhile, life has to go on. About 20 years ago, I went to an exhibition of works by the French photographer Henri Cartier-Bresson – one of which was of a family of four adults picnicking by the Marne, with their food and wine scattered around them, and a rowing-boat moored to the riverbank. When I first looked at it, I wondered what its significance was. But then I saw the date on the adjacent plaque: “1936-38.” We break bread, get drunk and tune out the noise until carrying on like that ceases to be an option: as Families Like Ours suggests, that point may arrive sooner than we think.

May 14, 2025 Posted by | climate change, Denmark, media | Leave a comment

I just returned from Antarctica: climate change isn’t some far-off problem – it’s here and hitting hard.

The continent stands as a powerful symbol of our interconnected climate systems – a compelling case for conservation…………………… the ocean shapes our world – and Antarctica is central to that story. The surrounding waters link the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans through the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This connectivity means that what happens in Antarctica affects us all.

Jennifer Verduin, Sun 11 May 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/11/antarctica-climate-change-threat

As an oceanographer, I study how the ocean shapes our world. For Australia and other nations, the lesson is urgent.

Antarctica is often viewed as the last truly remote place on Earth – frozen, wild and untouched. But is it really as untouched as it seems?

This vast frozen continent is encircled by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the only current in the world that connects all the oceans, showing how closely linked our planet really is.

Earlier this year, I joined more than 100 scientists on a journey to Antarctica. What we encountered was extraordinary: towering icebergs, playful penguins, breaching whales and seals resting on the ice. Yet beneath this natural wonder lies a sobering reality – Antarctica is changing, and fast. The experience left me both inspired and deeply saddened.

This unique environment highlights the fragility of our planet. Its pristine landscapes and thriving wildlife represent what we stand to lose if we don’t take urgent action to reduce human impact.

Historically, Antarctica suffered from exploitation – hunters came for whales and seals, leaving scars on its ecosystems. While wildlife is slowly recovering, these species now face a new threat: climate change. Rising ocean temperatures are melting ice, reshaping habitats and disrupting the delicate balance of life.

The continent stands as a powerful symbol of our interconnected climate systems – a compelling case for conservation. During our visit, we toured research stations and Port Lockroy, where gentoo penguins raise their chicks. Here, human activity is carefully managed. Half the island is set aside for the penguins, while the other half welcomes around 18,000 tourists each year who come to learn about this remarkable place. It’s a model of coexistence – one that shows how we can live alongside nature when we choose to act responsibly.

Along our journey, we witnessed diverse wildlife in their natural habitats – from penguins and seals to whales and seabirds. Albatrosses and cape petrels followed our ship, gliding effortlessly over the waves – symbols of resilience, yet also vulnerability.

But reminders of past damage still linger. On Deception Island, rusted remains of the whaling industry serve as stark evidence of the harm unchecked exploitation can cause. They also underscore why continued protection of these fragile ecosystems is vital.

As an oceanographer, I study how the ocean shapes our world – and Antarctica is central to that story. The surrounding waters link the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans through the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This connectivity means that what happens in Antarctica affects us all. Pollution, warming seas and oil spills know no borders. These changes disrupt ocean currents, harm marine life and influence climate systems around the globe.

The implications are clear: addressing environmental challenges requires international cooperation and decisive action.

May 12, 2025 Posted by | ANTARCTICA, climate change | Leave a comment

Two-thirds of global heating caused by richest 10%, study suggests

 Two-thirds of global heating caused by richest 10%, study suggests. Paper
in Nature Climate Change journal reveals major role wealthy emitters play
in driving climate extremes. The world’s wealthiest 10% are responsible
for two-thirds of global heating since 1990, driving droughts and heatwaves
in the poorest parts of the world, according to a study.

While researchers
have previously shown that higher income groups emit disproportionately
large amounts of greenhouse gases, the latest survey is the first to try to
pin down how that inequality translates into responsibility for climate
breakdown. It offers a powerful argument for climate finance and wealth
taxes by attempting to give an evidential basis for how many people in the
developed world – including more than 50% of full-time employees in the
UK – bear a heightened responsibility for the climate disasters affecting
people who can least afford it.

 Guardian 7th May 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/07/two-thirds-of-global-heating-caused-by-richest-study-suggests

May 10, 2025 Posted by | climate change | Leave a comment

‘Sitting ducks’: the cities most vulnerable to climate disasters.

Extreme weather means wildfires and flooding are becoming more likely,
posing a risk to urban areas around the world. Kostas Lagouvardos and his
colleagues at the Penteli Observatory, which offers sweeping views of
Athens, are what you would call experts on wildfires. They have spent
decades researching the link between meteorological conditions and deadly
infernos, as well as tackling the challenge of forecasting when and where
the disasters might happen.

But even they were caught off-guard by the
wildfire that arrived at their door last August. “It was ironic,” says
Lagouvardos, research director at the Institute for Environmental Research
and Sustainable Development at the National Observatory of Athens. The
Penteli site, which forms part of the NOA and is home to the historic
Newall refractor telescope, was almost engulfed by a blaze that spread from
nearby Mount Pentelicus. Flames whipped around the grounds, coming within
metres of the astronomy tower and other buildings, as helicopters dropped
water from above and firefighters below battled to save the crucial
scientific site. The observatory buildings were spared, but its nearest
neighbour was badly damaged, as were many other buildings in the area. One
person died.

The fact that a wildfire came so close to the very building
where scientists had long attempted to understand the phenomenon highlights
the key challenges for cities around the world as extreme weather
intensifies. Not only are wildfires becoming more common, they are
difficult to predict and are spreading ever closer to densely populated
urban areas. Just last week, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
warned that wildfires in the country were at risk of reaching Jerusalem.

Athens, like other big cities including Dallas, Lisbon, Sydney and Cape
Town, are what some scientists refer to as “sitting ducks”. In these
places, the climate and geographical conditions mean they are extremely
vulnerable to global warming-related disasters.

This could be wildfires,
like those in Los Angeles in January, but also flooding, as seen in
Valencia last year. In some cases, one can follow the other. These
so-called sitting ducks “haven’t had an extreme event” so far, says
Erin Coughlan de Perez, a professor at Tufts University, an expert in
climate risk. “They’ve got lucky.” But the odds might be against
them.

With 2025 expected to be one of the hottest on record, despite a
cooling La Niña weather phenomenon earlier this year, scientists warn of a
rising risk of climate-related disasters. Climate change is causing a rise
in extreme heat, which helps fuel wildfires, while hotter temperatures can
also lead to more intense rainfall and flooding, because warmer air holds
more moisture.

 FT 5th May 2025,
https://www.ft.com/content/57835a0c-9e58-4c1a-9c5a-f6a4cbe3f748

May 7, 2025 Posted by | climate change, Greece | Leave a comment

Arctic plant study reveals an ‘early warning sign’ of climate change upheaval

 Scientists studying Arctic plants say the ecosystems that host life in
some of the most inhospitable reaches of the planet are changing in
unexpected ways in an “early warning sign” for a region upended by
climate change.

In four decades, 54 researchers tracked more than 2,000
plant communities across 45 sites from the Canadian high Arctic to Alaska
and Scandinavia. They discovered dramatic shifts in temperatures and
growing seasons produced no clear winners or losers. Some regions witnessed
large increases in shrubs and grasses and declines in flowering plants –
which struggle to grow under the shade created by taller plants.

Those findings, published in Nature, fill key knowledge gaps for teams on the
frontlines of a changing climate.

 Guardian 1st May 2025 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/01/arctic-plant-study-warning-climate-change

May 4, 2025 Posted by | climate change | Leave a comment

‘Spiral of silence’: climate action is very popular, so why don’t people realise it?

Researchers find 89% of people around the world want more to be done, but
mistakenly assume their peers do not.

The Guardian is joining forces with
dozens of newsrooms around the world to launch the 89% project—and
highlight the fact that the vast majority of the world’s population wants
climate action. The illusion that climate action is not popular is global.
So imagine dispelling that myth: such a shift, experts say, could be a
gamechanger, pushing the world over a social tipping point into unstoppable
climate progress. Such a communication campaign, low-cost and scalable,
could be among the most powerful tools available to fight the climate
crisis, they say. Decades of psychological research indicates that
correcting such misunderstandings can change people’s views across a
swathe of issues, from participating in protests to voting for Donald
Trump.

 Guardian 22nd April 2025
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/apr/22/spiral-of-silence-climate-action-very-popular-why-dont-people-realise

April 24, 2025 Posted by | climate change | Leave a comment

Activate climate’s ‘silent majority’ to supercharge action, experts say

Making concerned people aware their views are far from alone could unlock the change so urgently needed.

‘Spiral of silence’: climate action is very popular, so why don’t people realise it? The Guardian is joining forces with dozens of newsrooms around the world to launch the 89% project—and highlight the fact that the vast majority of the world’s population wants climate action. Read more

Making people aware that their pro-climate view is, in
fact, by far the majority could unlock a social tipping point and push
leaders into the climate action so urgently needed, experts say. The data
comes from a global survey that interviewed 130,000 people across 125
countries and found 89% thought their national government “should do more
to fight global warming”. It also asked people if they would
“contribute 1% of their household income every month to fight global
warming” and what proportion of their fellow citizens they thought would
do the same. In almost all countries, people believed only a minority of
their fellow citizens would be willing to contribute. In reality, the
opposite was true: more than 50% of citizens were willing to contribute in
all but a few nations. The global average of those willing to contribute
was 69%. But the percentage that people thought would be willing was 43%.
The gap between perception and reality was as high as 40 percentage points
in some countries, from Greece to Gabon.

Damian Carrington Guardian 22nd April 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/apr/22/activate-climate-silent-majority-support-supercharge-action

April 24, 2025 Posted by | climate change | Leave a comment

Murder in Broad Daylight :REPORTING FROM THE CLIMATE WAR ZONE

April 16, 2025, by Radio Ecoshock [ includes audio]

Killer summer heat in Spring? Don’t worry. Donald Trump shoots the messengers. Closing down climate in NASA and NOAA, the news from Paul Voosen at the American Academy. The voice of Canadian weather and science David Phillips helps process the news. Plus a quick replay from Arjit Varki: denial as a basic function in the human mind.

Summer is two months early in Central Asia. The first 11 days in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan were all above 30 degrees C or 86 Fahrenheit. Just listen to the harsh heat wave hitting India’s capital Delhi and it’s 33 million people. Delhi has been over 40 degrees C (104 F) three days this month.  The summer heat is yet to come!

Still don’t care? How about the first 100 degree day in Phoenix, already – a month earlier than usual. That’s a Spring heat wave over the whole U.S. Southwest.

No matter what weather you experienced, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service and US NOAA, the world had the warmest January ever recorded. It was 1.75 degrees C above the pre-industrial level. Eighteen of the last nineteen months were over the alleged 1.5 degree safety line for climate change. We get the hottest months ever recorded on this planet, despite the La Nina conditions which normally cool things down. This is over-the-limit super heat.

Donald Trump got elected promising cheap gas at the pumps. He would turn the USA into an energy super-power. Off with protections and National Parks. Drill by the beaches, frack by the schools, do whatever you want. Because they are firing the regulators, scientists and the prosecutors who enforce anything related to pollution, the protection of nature, or climate change.

The Artificial Intelligence bro’s are scanning all government data to find anything related to climate change. They want to delete all that and fire the scientists who generate data on climate. Or just fire scientists generally. Who needs those egg-heads?

We need funeral music. The end of climate science in America is nigh. That’s not a fringe worry anymore, it is happening in real time.

REPORTING FROM THE CLIMATE WAR ZONE

Paul Voosen

Paul Voosen holds a master’s in science journalism from Columbia University. On April 11th, he filed this story at science.org, the publication of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. The title is: “Trump seeks to end climate research at premier U.S. climate agency – White House aims to end NOAA’s research office; NASA also targeted.”

I’m just going to pass this on, quoting from Voosen’s article:

“President Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to end nearly all of the climate research conducted by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), one of the country’s premier climate science agencies, according to an internal budget document seen by Science. The document indicates the White House is ready to ask Congress to eliminate NOAA’s climate research centers and cut hundreds of federal and academic climate scientists who track and study human-driven global warming.

The administration is also preparing to ask for deep cuts to NASA’s science programs, according to media reports today.

The administration’s plan would “eliminate all funding for climate, weather, and ocean laboratories and cooperative institutes,” says the document, which reflects discussions between NOAA and the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) about the agency’s 2026 budget request. Currently, NOAA operates 10 research labs around the country. They include influential ocean research centers in Florida and Washington state; five atmospheric science labs in Boulder, Colorado, and Maryland; and a severe storm lab in Oklahoma. It also operates the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in New Jersey, the birthplace of weather and climate modeling, as well as a lab in Michigan devoted to the Great Lakes. The agency further funds cooperative institutes, which support a large collection of academic scientists who work closely with the NOAA labs.

The proposal would cut NOAA’s competitive climate research grants program, which awards roughly $70 million a year to academic scientists. It would end support for collecting regional climate data and information, often used by farmers and other industries. And it would terminate the agency’s National Oceanographic Partnership Program and college and aquaculture sea grant programs, which support a host of research efforts.

NOAA officials still have time to persuade OMB to alter the request, but NOAA sources said it is unlikely to substantially change. But this proposal is only the first stage of the budget process; Congress will have the final word in setting NOAA’s spending.

At NASA, science programs also face severe cuts, according to details first reported by Ars Technica. The White House is considering requesting a nearly 50% cut to NASA science’s office, down to an overall budget of $3.9 billion. According to Ars Technica, the plan calls for: “a two-thirds cut to astrophysics, down to $487 million; a greater than two-thirds cut to heliophysics, down to $455 million; a greater than 50 percent cut to Earth science, down to $1.033 billion; and a 30 percent cut to Planetary science, down to $1.929 billion.”

Such NASA cuts would require ending the operations of a huge host of earth science satellites. They could also result in the closure of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland, which has thousands of employees and is one of the agency’s premier centers for earth science research. The cuts would also end plans for Mars Sample Return, the DAVINCI mission to Venus, and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, which is almost fully assembled.“

That is from Paul Voosen at science.org, with work from Eric Berger’s report April 11 at arstechnica.com on the NASA cuts.

Close the Goddard Space Flight Center? Forget new earth science satellites? Fire the biggest and possibly best climate science teams in the world? All this is deeply wrong.

IS IT THE FALL OF EMPIRE?

In the year 410, the Christian Father Saint Augustine kept a diary of his times. The German tribes known as “the Vandals” were storming across North Africa. They surrounded his ancient city of Carthage. Then he received impossible news: Rome itself was sacked. Augustine forsaw the ancient institutions of learning, government, and the arts crumbling away, leading to a long period now called “The Dark Ages”.

Are we there yet? I don’t think so. But we can smell burning institutions in America, once a light of Democracy for the world. Big name universities like Harvard, Princeton and Columbia are being defunded and told what to teach. Until now, the brightest students, scientists and scholars came to those universities to learn and spread their brilliance. They have all been sent home, abruptly, with no warning. They find an email announcing an immediate cut to funding, and told to self-deport.

One scientist I follow on Bluesky was fired in February, rehired a week ago, and then fired again. Others have watched five or ten years of research suddenly wiped out, along with their paychecks that paid the mortgage. Big black holes of data are opening up in America, formerly the largest depository of weather data and climate science.

In recent weeks I asked guests from Europe and Australia whether climate science can be maintained and go forward without NASA or NOAA. In today’s feature interview with the grand old man of Canadian weather and climate – I ask again. Twice. Because nobody, none of our guests, could take that seriously. After working this beat for decades, I see NASA and NOAA science in almost everything. The new deniers plan to kill that off.

On April 8th, Trump stands in front of some burly men who might be coal miners, looking strangely out of place in the Oval Office. He signed an Executive Order to boost the American coal industry. Trump wants a rash of new coal plants to fuel data farms for Artificial Intelligence. He’s dumping any incentives to buy electric cars, and removing any legislation requiring phasing out gas vehicles. The electric revolution is over along with all that other green crap, he says. The new Environmental Destruction Agency fired any investigators and dumped the pollution rules, so just go for it.

The new Orwellian Great Leader says: “There is no climate change – that was all a scam!” Don’t believe your lying eyes. Never mind the heat, and all those bodies overseas. But the disasters will come again, and again.

David Gelles writes about “Climate: Economic Disaster Warnings” for the New York Times, April 10. He notes a Morgan Stanley report expects the world to heat by 3 degrees Celsius. A U.N. Gap report also found the world likely to warm to 3.1 degrees C over preindustrial by the end of this century. That means flooding of cities like Rio, Shanghai and Miami, just to name a few. A February report from First Street, found the U.S. would lose $1.47 trillion in lost real estate values by 2055, just 30 years from now. 80,000 homes would be lost to floods in the next 15 years in New York City according to reporters Zaveri and Howard.

Günther Thallinger is a member of the supervisory board of Allianz SE, the giant Swiss insurer. He told the times:

“The math breaks down: the premiums required exceed what people or companies can pay,” he said. “This is already happening. Entire regions are becoming uninsurable.”

But the risks extend well beyond the insurance business, Thallinger said.

“This is not a one-off market adjustment,” he wrote in his post. “This is a systemic risk that threatens the very foundation of the financial sector. If insurance is no longer available, other financial services become unavailable too. A house that cannot be insured cannot be mortgaged. No bank will issue loans for uninsurable property. Credit markets freeze. This is a climate-induced credit crunch.”

  • David Gelles in the New York Times April 10th.

You think the stock market is melting down now. Wait until the real world melts down too. You won’t have to wait long.

So let’s get to our feature guest with Canada’s take.

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THE VOICE OF WEATHER & ENVIRONMENT

DAVID PHILLIPS…………………………………………………………………………………. https://www.ecoshock.org/2025/04/murder-in-broad-daylight.html

April 22, 2025 Posted by | climate change | Leave a comment

Nuclear Energy Means Climate Action Delay: O’Donnell and Winfield

 Susan O’Donnell and Mark Winfield, https://www.theenergymix.com/nuclear-energy-means-climate-action-delay-odonnell-and-winfield/ 16 Apr 25

What is the best way for utilities to delay the transition from fossil fuels? Propose to build nuclear reactors.

Electricity utilities wanting to “decarbonize” have several options for replacing the fossil fuel (coal, oil and gas) plants on their grids: aim to increase energy efficiency and productivity; add new renewable energy and storage resources; consider adding carbon capture and storage (CCS); or propose to build new nuclear reactors.

By objective measures, building new nuclear power plants will cost more, take longer to deploy, and introduce catastrophic accident risks—relative to improving energy productivity, expanding renewables with energy storage, and developing distributed energy resources. CCS suffers from limits of appropriate geology, reduced plant efficiency, and high costs.

However, if the goal is to keep fossil fuel-fired plants operating as long as possible, promising to build more nuclear energy has definite appeal.

Reactor design, planning, and build times are notoriously long—usually measured in decades—with well-established patterns of significant “unexpected” delays. Delaying while waiting for the promised new nuclear builds or reactor refurbishments maintains the status quo, effectively kicking actual climate action well down the road.

The two Canadian provinces with operating nuclear power reactors, Ontario and New Brunswick, provide case studies in this strategy. Both provinces are investing in significant new fossil gas generating infrastructure while waiting for new reactor designs to be developed and then built.

In Ontario, greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector have already risen dramatically as fossil gas plants are run to replace out-of-service nuclear reactors, and the province proposes to add more gas-fired generating capacity to its system. After a nearly decade-long hiatus, it only recently proposed a feeble reengagement with renewable energy. New nuclear reactor builds at Darlington, Bruce, and now Wesleyville, with timelines stretching well into the 2030s and 40s, remain the centrepiece of its energy (and supposed) climate strategy.

New Brunswick’s NB Power plans to add 600 MW of new nuclear power at its Point Lepreau nuclear site on the Bay of Fundy. Calls to build renewables instead have been rebuffed. In 2018, the province invited two nuclear start-up companies to set up in Saint John and apply for federal funding. Despite generous support from federal and provincial taxpayers, the companies have been unable to attract matching private funds. The NB Power CEO recently said she is “unsure” if the ARC-100, the reactor design promoted in 2018 as the closest to commercialization, will be ready by “the late 2030s.”

Meanwhile, the government recently announced support for building a large fossil gas plant, the biggest power project in the province in more than a decade.

The reality is that the new nuclear reactors being pushed by proponents are largely “PowerPoint reactors”—unproven and unbuilt designs. The BWRX-300 reactor that Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is proposing for its Darlington site, for example, lacks a fully-developed design, including key elements like safety systems. The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) still gave OPG a licence to build it, while the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is still reviewing the design and asking for more information.

Recent analyses from the U.S. Tennessee Valley Authority also suggest the cost of the reactors will be far higher than OPG has claimed, and the timeline to construction and completion by 2030 seems less and less likely.

The new Monark design for a CANDU reactor that AtkinsRéalis (formerly SNC Lavalin) is proposing for the Bruce Power nuclear site is even further behind the BWRX-300 in development. According to the CNSC, the Monark is at a “familiarization and planning” stage, with no date set for even the first, preliminary stage of the design review.

The Monark’s main competitor is the AP-1000 reactor by Westinghouse. In 2002, the company submitted the AP-1000 design for formal review by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Two reactors came online in 2023 and 2024 at the Vogtle plant in Georgia, more than two decades later and twice the original timeline. Prior to the Vogtle project, the last reactor to come online in the U.S. took more than five decades from the start of construction to supplying power to the grid.

The final cost of the recent Vogtle project, at US$36.8 billion, was more than twice the original budget. If the same cost profile is applied to Ontario’s nuclear expansion projects, the total bill to Ontario electricity ratepayers and taxpayers could exceed $350 billion.

Promising to build more nuclear power is a political path to climate action delay and a distraction from a sustainable and decarbonized energy system transition. There is a reason why the International Energy Agency predicts that despite new nuclear reactor builds, nuclear energy will provide only eight percent of electricity supplies globally by 2050. In the meantime, while renewables development continues to accelerate globally, Canadian utilities, detoured by nuclear and CCS ambitions, double down on fossil gas and drift further and further behind in the global energy revolution.

Dr. Susan O’Donnell is adjunct research professor and lead investigator of the CEDAR project at St. Thomas University in Fredericton. Dr. Mark Winfield is a professor at the Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change at York University in Toronto, and co-chair of the faculty’s Sustainable Energy Initiative.

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April 17, 2025 Posted by | Canada, climate change | Leave a comment

Flood warnings as Europe named as the fastest-warming continent in the world

Europe has been named the fastest-warming continent in the world in a
UN-led annual report. The UN-led European State of the Climate 2024, which
included contributions from about 100 scientists and experts, found that
last year was the warmest on record for the continent as countries were hit
by clear climate change impacts, extreme weather and record temperatures.

Released on Tuesday by the UN World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and
the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the report details a year of
extremes.

 Independent 15th April 2025, https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/flooding-spain-global-warming-un-report-b2733121.html

April 17, 2025 Posted by | climate change, EUROPE | Leave a comment

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