Stopping global warming necessitates closing coal and gas energy resources
Massive fossil fuels cut is last chance to limit global warming, researchers say http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/massive-fossil-fuels-cut-last-chance-limit-global-warming-researchers-say-311133 9 Jan 15 While the world’s fossil fuel reserves are already limited, new research published in Naturemagazine argues that these energy sources should already be out of commission, in order to salvage a 50% chance of stopping global warming. EurActiv Germany reports.
According to the study, approximately 80% of current technically and economically recoverable coal, 50% of gas reserves, and 30% of oil reserves would have to remain untapped over the next 40 years to slow global warming.
When these are burned to generate energy, CO2 is created – a greenhouse gas that absorbs the earth’s heat radiation before it can escape into outer space.
There is at least a 50% chance that global warming could be reduced to pre-industrial levels, said researchers Paul Ekins and Christophe McGlade.
But keeping global temperatures at such tolerable levels, can only be achieved if exploitation of these fuels is given up, they indicated. Only one-third of fossil fuel reserves can be tapped
At the moment, 2,900 gigatonnes of fossil fuel reserves worldwide are technically and economically recoverable. But as earlier studies have already calculated, only around 1,100 gigatonnes of carbon-dioxide can be emitted while still upholding the 2° climate target.
This means leaving a large amount of reserves untouched, a painful move for countries that are economically dependent on their fossil fuel resources.
With the help of computer models, the researchers illustrate which regions must considerably reduce their output. To do this, they use a variety of data including from the German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Raw Materials, the International Energy Agency and the Global Energy Assessment.
Middle East must abandon half of its oil reserves
Taking into consideration the respective regional costs of extraction and assumed future technological development, the researchers then calculated which resources could be extracted the most cost-effectively.
The outcome showed the Middle East would have to leave about half of its recoverable oil reserves – around 260 billion barrels – in the ground. But the United States and Australia would have to give up 90% of their currently recoverable coal resources.
China, India, Africa and the Middle East, would also have to significantly limit their extraction of unconventional gas.
Meanwhile, extraction of fossil fuel reserves in the Arctic should be avoided completely, the researchers write.
“A question of compensation”
Although the study is not the first of its kind, its strength is in detailed division of regions, Michael Jakob and Jérôme Hilaire from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research wrote in a commentary on the Nature study.The formulated target for poor countries, whose poverty could grow due to a stricter climate policy, raises certain concerns, the researchers write.
“Given the crucial role of energy in economic development, how can countries be convinced to forgo the use of fossil fuels if this is perceived to imperil primary policy objectives such as poverty reduction?” asked Jakob.
For this reason, successful climate policy comes down to compensation, that affected countries could receive from an international fund, he said.
But to do this, industrialised countries would have to create large incentives, the two researchers argue.
A study by the German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Raw Materials shows that as it stands, a large part of worldwide non-renewable energy resources is still available.
Despite predicted increases in demand, particularly due to population and economic growth in developing countries, natural gas and coal could still be supplied for many decades.
Scientists are under-reacting to the very real threats of climate change
Playing Dumb on Climate Change, NYT, By NAOMI ORESKESJAN. 3, 2015CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — SCIENTISTS have often been accused of exaggerating the threat of climate change, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that they ought to be more emphatic about the risk. The year just concluded is about to be declared the hottest one on record, and across the globe climate change is happening faster than scientists predicted.
Science is conservative, and new claims of knowledge are greeted with high degrees of skepticism……….
When applied to evaluating environmental hazards, the fear of gullibility can lead us to understate threats. It places the burden of proof on the victim rather than, for example, on the manufacturer of a harmful product. The consequence is that we may fail to protect people who are really getting hurt……….
In the case of climate change, we are not dumb at all. We know that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, we know that its concentration in the atmosphere has increased by about 40 percent since the industrial revolution, and we know the mechanism by which it warms the planet.
WHY don’t scientists pick the standard that is appropriate to the case at hand, instead of adhering to an absolutist one? The answer can be found in a surprising place: the history of science in relation to religion. The 95 percent confidence limit reflects a long tradition in the history of science that valorizes skepticism as an antidote to religious faith……..
Years ago, climate scientists offered an increase of 2 degrees Celsius (or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) as the “safe” limit or ceiling for the long-term warming of the planet. We are now seeing dangerous effects worldwide, even as we approach a rise of only 1 degree Celsius. The evidence is mounting that scientists have underpredicted the threat. Perhaps this is another reason — along with our polarized politics and the effect of fossil-fuel lobbying — we have underreacted to the reality, now unfolding before our eyes, of dangerous climate change. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/opinion/sunday/playing-dumb-on-climate-change.html?_r=1
Pope Francis pushes for climate change action, challenging political and some religious authorities
rancis’s edict on climate change will anger deniers and US churches, Guardian, John Vidal, 28 Dec 14 Pontiff hopes to inspire action at next year’s UN meeting in Paris in December after visits to Philippines and New York “……can Francis achieve a feat that has so far eluded secular powers and inspire decisive action on climate change?It looks as if he will give it a go. In 2015, the pope will issue a lengthy message on the subject to the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics, give an address to the UN general assembly and call a summit of the world’s main religions.The reason for such frenetic activity, says Bishop Marcelo Sorondo, chancellor of the Vatican’s Pontifical Academy of Sciences, is the pope’s wish to directly influence next year’s crucial UN climate meeting in Paris, when countries will try to conclude 20 years of fraught negotiations with a universal commitment to reduce emissions.
“Our academics supported the pope’s initiative to influence next year’s crucial decisions,” Sorondo told Cafod, the Catholic development agency, at a meeting in London. “The idea is to convene a meeting with leaders of the main religions to make all people aware of the state of our climate and the tragedy of social exclusion.”
Following a visit in March to Tacloban, the Philippine city devastated in 2012 by typhoon Haiyan, the pope will publish a rare encyclical on climate change and human ecology. Urging all Catholics to take action on moral and scientific grounds, the document will be sent to the world’s 5,000 Catholic bishops and 400,000 priests, who will distribute it to parishioners.
According to Vatican insiders, Francis will meet other faith leaders and lobby politicians at the general assembly in New York in September, when countries will sign up to new anti-poverty and environmental goals………..
According to Neil Thorns, head of advocacy at Cafod, said: “The anticipation around Pope Francis’s forthcoming encyclical is unprecedented. We have seen thousands of our supporters commit to making sure their MPs know climate change is affecting the poorest communities.”
However, Francis’s environmental radicalism is likely to attract resistance from Vatican conservatives and in rightwing church circles, particularly in the US – where Catholic climate sceptics also include John Boehner, Republican leader of the House of Representatives and Rick Santorum, the former Republican presidential candidate.
Cardinal George Pell, a former archbishop of Sydney who has been placed in charge of the Vatican’s budget, is a climate change sceptic who has been criticised for claiming that global warming has ceased and that if carbon dioxide in the atmosphere were doubled, then “plants would love it”………
Francis will also be opposed by the powerful US evangelical movement, said Calvin Beisner, spokesman for the conservative Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, which has declared the US environmental movement to be “un-biblical” and a false religion……..http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/27/pope-francis-edict-climate-change-us-rightwing?CMP=share_btn_tw
USA’s Environment Protection Agency finding it hard to assess nuclear power’s greenhouse emissions
E.P.A. Wrestles With Role of Nuclear Plants in Carbon Emission Rules By MATTHEW L. WALD NYT DEC. 25, 2014 WASHINGTON — Trying to write a complicated formula to cut carbon emissions, the Environmental Protection Agency thinks it has found a magic number: 5.8.
The agency is trying to complete a rule governing carbon emissions from power plants, and among the most complicated and contentious issues is how to treat existing nuclear power plants. Many of them are threatened with shutdowns because cheap natural gas has made their reactors uncompetitive.
The agency’s proposal gave an odd mathematical formula for evaluating nuclear plants’ contribution to carbon emissions. It said that 5.8 percent of existing nuclear capacity was at risk of being shut for financial reasons, and thus for states with nuclear reactors, keeping them running would earn a credit of 5.8 percent toward that state’s carbon reduction goal.
Since receiving tens of thousands of comments on the proposal, the agency is now reviewing the plan. It must evaluate all comments before it sets a final rule, which it hopes to do by June. That rule, however, is likely to be challenged in court. Continue reading
Arctic ice melting rapidly as solar radiation increases
Arctic Ice Melting Due To Absorption Of Increased Solar Radiation http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/576820/20141222/arctic-melting-ice-solar-radiation.htm#.VJ20osA8 By India Ashok | December 22, 2014
In recent years, the Arctic region has been absorbing more and more of the sun’s radioactive energy, causing the rapid melting of ice in the region. Researchers have found a direct correlation in the rise of solar radiation being absorbed and the decrease in the mount of Arctic sea ice. Since 2000, scientists have observed that the reflective quality of the sea ice has been overwhelmed by the increased levels of absorption of solar radiation such that sea ice in the area has been shrinking at a consistently alarming rate. In fact, the overall climate of the Arctic region is reported to have undergone a marked increase in warmth.
Norman Loeb of NASA’s Langley Research Centre in Virginia has reportedly stated that the Arctic region experienced an increase of warmth in the climate of about five percent. In fact, scientists have concluded that the Arctic region is the only one in the world to have experienced such a rise in temperatures. NASA’s Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments, which have been placed on a few satellites are responsible for uncovering the data and measurements from which the Arctic climactic conditions can be analysed.
Leob went on to say that “Advances in our understanding of Arctic climate change and the underlying processes that influence will depend critically upon high quality observations like these from CERES.” What is confounding most scientists is that the Arctic region is comparatively showing more changes in its climate than any other region on the planet.
Mark Tschudi of the University of Colorado provided enough data that portrayed that since 2000, the Arctic region has lost a total of 1.4 million square kilometres of old ice. Further observation into the climactic conditions of the Arctic region only reinforce the theory that the marked temperature rise in the region is slated to continue increasing at this rate. While most would like to spend more time observing climactic patterns before venturing a root cause for such drastic changes, the possibly that global warming may have a hand in all this could not be ruled out.
To contact the editor, e-mail: editor@ibtimes.com
Rising temperatures threaten to kill forests
Woodlands at risk as mercury climbs http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/woodlands-at-risk-as-mercury-climbs-20141223-124s2a.html December 24, 2014 – Peter Hannam
“At 50 degrees, you just start to see massive mortality in the canopy, even in the eucalyptus,” Eamus says.
Many studies have focused on how vegetation initially benefits from increases in carbon dioxide – a plant food – provided adequate water and soil nutrients are available. Less understood, though, is how trees cope with higher temperatures, particularly when humidity drops. That gap is partly because humidity conditions have been difficult to replicate at large scale.
“Stomata of all plants respond to decreased humidity by closing their apertures so they can reduce the amount of water they have to spend,” Eamus says. Less transpiration, though, means ambient temperatures are hotter.
Droughts will make the problem worse as eco-systems are already under stress. “The incoming solar radiation can’t evaporate the water from soil and leaves, [so] it heats the canopy, ground and air,” he says.
Some species are less adapted to rising temperatures than others, so the biodiversity balance will shift. Eamus predicts alpine forests – which are forecast to see some of the biggest temperate increases – “are going to be first ones to keel over”.
Hole in ozone layer lingers – with deadly effects
Australian scientists have now found the radiation is having much wider effects. “Ecosystem impacts documented so far include changes to growth rates of South American and New Zealand trees, decreased growth of Antarctic mosses and changing biodiversity in Antarctic lakes,” say Sharon Robinson, of Wollongong University in NSW, and David Erickson, from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee.
Because it is no longer absorbing UV light, the stratosphere has cooled, which is reducing air pressure over the South Pole and sucking the southern jetstream southwards, along with its associated weather systems.
That has helped cool the Antarctic and direct more extreme weather towards Australia.http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-ozone-hole-is-rewriting-earths-
Warming of oceans brings hottest year on record
Warm oceans keep world on course for hottest year December 16, 2014 Peter Hannam Environment Editor, The Sydney Morning Herald Ongoing record warmth in the world’s oceans has increased the likelihood that 2014 will be declared the hottest year since reliable data began more than a century ago, US and Japanese agencies say.
The warmth comes as conditions in the Pacific remain conducive to an El Nino event forming in coming months, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said.
Surface temperatures have exceeded El Nino threshold levels for several weeks, and the bureau estimates there is a greater than 70 per cent chance of such an event soon.
The first 11 months of the year were the warmest on record, with combined global land and sea-surface temperatures running 1.22 degrees above the 20th-century average, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
This year will be the hottest on record – eclipsing 2005 and 2010 – provided December is at least 0.76 degrees above average, NOAA said…………http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/warm-oceans-keep-world-on-course-for-hottest-year-20141216-1287l2.html
Heating of Arctic oceans may cause dangerous solar radiation feedback loop
Rapid warming of Arctic may trigger dangerous solar radiation feedback loop http://www.sciencerecorder.com/news/rapid-warming-of-arctic-may-trigger-dangerous-solar-radiation-feedback-loop/ Delila James | Science Recorder | December 18, 2014 NASA scientists at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco presented what is just the latest dire prediction about the runaway effects of climate change.
The researchers discussed a map created by satellites’ heat-sensing instruments showing the rate of solar radiation change in the Arctic, where the rate of heat absorption per square meter since 2000 has increased by more than 10 Watts of energy, according to a report by Wired. In some regions, such as the Beaufort Sea north of Alaska, the rate has increased as much as 45 Watts of energy per square meter.
For the past decade-and-a-half, NASA has been using satellite sensors called CERES to calculate how much solar energy is being absorbed by planet Earth as opposed to being reflected back into space. Every year the Arctic ice cap shrinks in the summer and grows in the winter. But because of the record loss of sun-reflecting sea ice in the Arctic seen in recent years, much of the winter ice cover now is thin—less than 6 feet thick, according to Wired.
So, when warm weather returns to the Arctic, the thin ice cover melts rapidly, causing the oceans to heat up. This then causes more ice to melt in a solar radiation feedback loop, in which the thinner the ice cover, the earlier in the summer it melts, which warms the ocean, which melts the ice, and so on.
Compared to 30 years ago, the annual summer melt in the Arctic comes seven days earlier, the Wired report said.
Atmospheric scientist Jennifer Kay of the University of Colorado, who collaborated in the research, said in a statement that CERES, which has only been collecting Arctic solar energy data since 2000, cannot be used to predict any long-term trends.
“Climate is usually considered to be a 30-year average,” Kay said.
Nuclear power is a distraction from the urgent task of tackling climate change
Nuclear damages attempts to tackle climate change nuClear News Dec 14 It is now almost 15 years since Tony Blair asked the Number Ten Performance and Innovation Unit (PIU) to carry out a thorough review of energy policy. That review ultimately led to the 2003 Energy White Paper which concluded that the current economics of nuclear power make it an unattractive option, and that there are still important issues about nuclear waste which need to be resolved.
Rising sea levels take a village – first of many climate change effects to come
If you believe the grim predictions of the latest climate science, Shishmaref is just the beginning. Towns in low-lying coastal plains and flood-prone river basins in the lower 48 may be next. A study from the U.S. Geological Surveywarns that 50 percent of the U.S. coastline is at high or very high risk of impacts due to sea level rise; according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 16.4 million Americans live in the coastal flood plain. If we can’t figure out how to save a village with fewer than 600 people from falling into the sea, what hope is there for everyone else?
Climate Change Takes A Village, Huff Post Kate Sheppard sheppard@huffingtonpost.com
As The Planet Warms, A Remote Alaskan Town Shows Just How Unprepared We Are 12/14/2014 “……..The remote village of 563 people is located 30 miles south of the Arctic Circle, flanked by the Chukchi Sea to the north and an inlet to the south, and it sits atop rapidly melting permafrost. In the last decades, the island’s shores have been eroding into the sea, falling off in giant chunks whenever a big storm hits.
The residents of Shishmaref, most of whom are Alaska Native Inupiaq people, have tried to counter these problems, moving houses away from the cliffs and constructing barriers along the northern shore to try to turn back the waves. But in July 2002, looking at the long-term reality facing the island, they voted to pack up and move the town elsewhere.
Relocation has proven much more difficult than that single vote, however. And 12 years later, Shishmaref is still here, ready to begin another school year. Continue reading
Nuclear too slow to be effective, and will soak up all the UK climate change funds
Nuclear damages attempts to tackle climate change nuClear News Dec 14 Mixed success; differing agendas shown in Lima Climate Change agreement
Lima climate change talks end in agreement – but who won? Guardian, Suzanne Goldberg, 14 Dec 14 This weekend’s deal on cutting greenhouse gas emissions gave everyone at the talks in Peru what they came for – sort of There was one thing above all others that wealthy countries wanted out of the Lima negotiations and that was a method of accounting for emissions cuts.
The issue that mattered above all to developing countries was deciding who should carry the burden of emissions cuts, and getting the money flowing for climate aid.
For small island states, acknowledgement of “loss and damage” due to climate change was critical. All three contingents got what they wanted – sort of. The deal reached on Saturday afternoon was critical in keeping the talks on track. The US and the European Union had pushed hard for a text that would require countries to offer upfront information about the nature of their pledges to cut emissions – “clarity, transparency and understanding”.
Wealthy countries also wanted a review process to ensure the pledges when they all come in would be enough to keep the world on course for two degrees of warming. But China especially had balked at providing detailed accounting of its emissions reductions plans, arguing that an outside review would amount to an affront to its sovereignty. The deal that emerged early on Sunday found a solution by changing a single word – “shall” to “may” – easing China’s concerns about outside interference……..http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/14/lima-climate-change-talks-who-won
Rich nations reluctant to help poor countries deal with climate change. Lima talks bog down?
Lima climate summit extended as poor countries demand more from rich,Guardian, Suzanne Goldenberg in Lima 12 Dec 14 Leaders of rich nations have been lampooned by environment activists at the Lima talks, but developing countries are also frustrated by their apparent lack of commitment.
Talks stumble amid rising frustration over ‘ridiculously low’ cash commitments offered by rich nations to help pay for emissions cuts Climate talks in Lima ran into extra time amid rising frustration from developing countries at the “ridiculously low” commitments from rich countries to help pay for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
The talks – originally scheduled to wrap up at 12pm after 10 days – are now expected to run well into Saturday , as negotiators huddle over a new draft text many glimpsed for the first time only morning.
The Lima negotiations began on a buoyant note after the US, China and the EU came forward with new commitments to cut carbon pollution. But they were soon brought back down to earth over the perennial divide between rich and poor countries in the negotiations: how should countries share the burden for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, and who should pay?
The talks were designed to draft a blueprint for a global deal to fight climate change, due to be adopted in Paris late next year. But developing countries argued that before signing on they needed to see greater commitments that the industrialised countries would keep to their end of a bargain to provide the money needed to fight climate change. After 10 days of talks, developing countries argued that those assurances were not strong enough.
By midweek, a little over $10bn had been raised for a green climate fund, intended to help poor countries invest in clean energy technology. That was below the initial target of $15bn and many of those funds will be distributed over several years………http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/12/lima-climate-change-talks-stumble-cash-emissions-cuts
Climate change; hotter weather brings expensive nuclear power shutdowns
Planned shutdowns of nuclear plants could mean higher prices for consumers CTV Toronto , December 8, 2014 The planned shutdowns of two of Ontario’s biggest nuclear plants during normally high peak times could mean soaring prices for consumers next year.
The Bruce Power and Darlington Nuclear Generating Stations will be shut down at the same time next spring and summer for 16 weeks for planned repairs.
The closure means that Ontario will not have enough electricity to meet its mandatory reserve during those weeks, when power demands normally soar. Last year, Ontario’s top-10 record days for electricity demand fell during those weeks. And Toronto also declared six extreme heat alerts during the same time.
The massive shutdowns combined with the possible added demand for power could mean the province may import electricity from the U.S. to avoid an outage.
“We always have the option if we see extreme weather coming to import power from our neighbours,” Alexandra Campbell, a spokesperson for the Independent Electricity System Operator, told CTV Toronto.
But Ontario’s NDP energy critic Peter Tabuns is warning that could mean higher prices for consumers.
“Let’s all pray for a cool, rainy May and a cloudy June and July because very high prices comes with those very high temperatures,” Tabus said…….
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