nuclear-news

The Uncertain Costs of New Nuclear Reactors: What Study Estimates Reveal about the Potential for Nuclear in a Decarbonizing World

Reports by Matt Bowen, Emeka Ochu & James Glynn • December 07, 2023  https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/the-uncertain-costs-of-new-nuclear-reactors-what-study-estimates-reveal-about-the-potential-for-nuclear-in-a-decarbonizing-world/

Executive Summary

Models that run decarbonization scenarios to meet mid-century goals for mitigating climate change almost always include a significant role for nuclear energy. The source’s projected level of deployment, however, remains uncertain, largely due to a wide range of estimated costs for new builds. Other factors that make it hard to gauge nuclear’s portion of the future energy mix include whether policies advancing low-carbon technologies will be enacted, the degree of public support for transmission siting and available low-carbon energy sources, whether new reactor technologies and fuels will change the investment equation, and how quickly “competitor” sources such as carbon capture and sequestration, renewables, and storage reduce costs.

This report, part of ongoing research into nuclear energy at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, examines the economics of new nuclear facilities for electricity generation—whether building them out makes sense financially as part of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as power demand grows across the globe. Insights into costs can be gleaned by reviewing the history of construction delays and cost overruns in the United States, international experiences that have fared better and worse, and studies that model a transitioning energy system. Studies reviewed in this report estimate new US reactor costs generally ranging from $3,000/kilowatt (kW) to $6,200/kW based on a variety of reactor designs and cost reduction curves assumed for subsequent years. Internationally, new reactor costs vary significantly by country, depending in part upon factors such as the cost of labor and whether projects involve multiple reactor builds (with attendant efficiencies in manufacturing and construction).

Additional findings from this report include the following:

• The limited number of new reactor builds in the United States in recent decades and the large number of new designs under development (some of which have never been built anywhere in the world) leave few data points from which to draw definitive conclusions on future nuclear costs.
• In countries such as China and India, construction expertise and supply chain efficiencies from ongoing nuclear power project buildouts and energy technology learning as well as lower labor costs, among other factors, have created more competitive economics for nuclear than are currently found in the United States.
• Additional findings from this report include the following:
• The limited number of new reactor builds in the United States in recent decades and the large number of new designs under development (some of which have never been built anywhere in the world) leave few data points from which to draw definitive conclusions on future nuclear costs.
• In countries such as China and India, construction expertise and supply chain efficiencies from ongoing nuclear power project buildouts and energy technology learning as well as lower labor costs, among other factors, have created more competitive economics for nuclear than are currently found in the United States.
• Modeling of nuclear energy costs in the US suggests that if the price tag ends up being much higher than the upper limits used in the studies cited, such as above $6,200/kW, new nuclear will play a marginal role, if any, in the US energy transition.
• Within the cost range quoted above, nuclear’s ability to play a substantial role in the United States (e.g., 50 gigawatts of deployment) could depend on factors including whether stronger decarbonization policies are enacted; whether other viable firm, low-carbon options emerge as competitive alternatives; whether difficulties with siting new transmission lines continue; and/or whether renewable energy expansion faces constraints.
• The new 30 percent tax credit in the Inflation Reduction Act available to both renewable and nuclear energy will substantially lower the cost of new nuclear reactors for US utilities.
• Internationally, scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change project that lower reactor costs in some emerging countries, in combination with strict climate mitigation policies, could result in very large new nuclear capacity expansion there.
• In modeling cases with high variable low-carbon power sources, the need for firm sources and storage options may be underestimated in the absence of greater temporal and technical granularity. This practice may omit costs associated with flexibility, market reserve, and storage that could be ameliorated by dispatchable nuclear capacity.

December 13, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | business and costs | Leave a comment

Nuclear’s share of world power output at multi-decade low – report.

PARIS, Dec 6 (Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nuclears-share-world-power-output-multi-decade-low-report-2023-12-06/– Global electricity production from nuclear energy dropped by 4% last year from 2021, with the technology’s share of gross electricity generation falling to its lowest since the 1980s, an industry report showed on Wednesday.

Nuclear energy generated 2,546 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity worldwide last year, accounting for 9.2% of total gross electricity generation, the annual World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR) showed.

Proponents of nuclear say as a low-carbon power source it could be vital in helping countries meet climate targets, but several plants around the world are coming to the end of their life expectancies and many new ones have faced delays.

The most nuclear power in the world is generated in the United States, followed by China.

Nuclear energy has regained some popularity recently as countries search for low-carbon power sources, but long lead times, high costs and climate impacts put the prospect of nuclear as a solution at “virtually zero”, the WNISR said.

As of mid-2023, a total of 407 reactors were operating in 32 countries, four less than a year earlier and 31 below a 2002 peak of 438, the report said.

The slow progress of construction has lifted the average age of a reactor to 31.4 years by the end of 2022, up from 31 years in mid-2022, the report said.

Some 58 reactors representing 58.6 gigawatts (GW) of additional capacity were under construction by mid-2023, five more than in 2022, with four in five reactors being built in Asia or Eastern Europe and over half facing years-long delays, the report said.

Nuclear is also continuing to fall behind renewables in terms of cost, as reactors are seen as more expensive and taking longer to build.

The adjusted cost of nuclear energy – which compares the total lifetime cost of building and running a plant to lifetime output – is nearly four times that of onshore wind, the report said.

Reporting by Forrest Crellin Editing by Mark Potter

December 10, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | business and costs | Leave a comment

The nuclear power renaissance has some way to run

EDF is vowing to build one reactor a year but challenges range from funding to a lack of skilled workers.

SARAH WHITE
 https://www.ft.com/content/aaa33c5c-70e8-4f05-a45a-a45c7d2aba72 1 Dec 23

When France first hosted a nuclear power trade fair about a decade ago, in the wake of the Fukushima disaster, it was a low-key affair. Two years ago, organisers’ main worry was to avoid anti-nuclear protesters marring proceedings. 

This week, the buzz at the vast salon on the outskirts of Paris was unequivocal. Miss America 2023, a nuclear engineering student, was on hand to help the event court the limelight, and champagne flowed on the stands displaying radioprotective gloves and designs for cutting-edge small reactors.  The message was clear: nuclear power is back, and France, Europe’s atomic power champion with its 56 reactors, intends to be at the heart of this revival.

“We’re coming out of a period of taboos [over nuclear],” said Sylvie Bermann, a former French ambassador to China and Russia who heads the Paris show.

The industry and its low-emission technology would also have its moment for the first time at the COP28 climate summit in the United Arab Emirates, with a dedicated event, she added.

After years in the doldrums, mindsets over nuclear have shifted, spurred by climate worries and an energy crisis last year when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and cut gas supplies to Europe. Even Japan, home to the Fukushima meltdown of 2011, has restarted idled reactors, while a host of other nations are considering new plants, giving suppliers reasons to feel more optimistic.

What is less obvious will be the move from aspirations to reality, in a sector where building reactors is costly and slow, especially after decades without projects drained the industry of skilled workers. 

Part of the promotional push by France and other pro-nuclear nations is aimed at solving some big obstacles. Chief among them, according to the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog Rafael Grossi, is the financing, including from multilateral bodies. 

Paris, which is riding high on recent EU wins to gain some subsidies for its existing plants, originally opposed by staunchly anti-nuclear Germany, has campaigned for instance for the European Investment Bank to help fund the construction of new reactors. “Nuclear has been constructed very fast when the money’s there,” said the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Grossi, citing the United Arab Emirates, which had gone from “zero to champions” in roughly eight years with a $20bn-plus project for four Korean-built reactors. They are almost all now online. 

There’s also a lot to prove on the industrial front. France’s state-controlled nuclear power operator EDF aims to build roughly one 1.6 Gigawatt reactor a year once it gets going with its new orders for at least six new ones in France by the mid-2030s, according to chief executive Luc Rémont. 

Considering its prototype in northern France known as Flamanville 3 has been 16 years in the making, it is an extremely ambitious goal. Rémont argues that parallel projects (the state-owned group is bidding for projects in India and the Czech Republic) would help EDF become better and faster.

There are other challenges. Many nations have long been dependent on Russian nuclear fuel, including the US reactor fleet, and finding sufficient alternative supplies could take years. 

Meanwhile, the IAEA forecasts that over the next 20 years the industry’s share in the global energy mix — roughly 10 per cent of the world’s electricity generation today — will remain flat, if not decrease slightly, unless there are even more ambitious construction plans.

Developers argue, however, that the hardest battle is getting political buy-in to give them the visibility they need. Judging by the upbeat messaging coming out of Paris this week, that part of the complex nuclear equation at least is some way towards being solved.

December 3, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | business and costs | Leave a comment

EDF to “build 1 reactor a year in 2030s” – CEO

EDF to “build 1 reactor a year in 2030s” – CEO. French utility EDF
plans to build at least one nuclear reactor per year in the next decade in
Europe, its CEO told the World Nuclear Exhibition in Paris late on Tuesday.
“We’re counting on an accelerated rate of construction capacity for large
reactors, from what we have today, which is one or two per decade… and
gradually moving up to one or even 1.5 per year” for the next decade, Luc
Remont said on the sidelines of the conference. “We have already built
four reactors per year” in the 1970s-80s.

 Montel 29th Nov 2023

https://www.montelnews.com/news/1532125/edf-to-build-1-reactor-a-year-in-2030s–ceo

November 30, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | business and costs | Leave a comment