The resuscitation of the nuclear industry is failing, because of costs
Nuclear Europe: a dream unwinding, China Dialogue, Steve Thomas June 06, 2012“…”…….If Europe’s governments have been jolted by the aftermath of Fukushima, the big energy companies have been violently shaken. Nuclear has long been an attractive option for the major operators because the massive demands placed on plant-builders effectively rule out entry by new competitors – unlike smaller-scale decentralised technologies, which allow scope for small companies to join in. ….On cost, the promise was that these reactors could be built for US$1,000 (6,300 yuan) per kilowatt of capacity. That would bring a 1,700-megawatt EPR in at US$1.7 billion (10.8 billion yuan). At that price, it was claimed their power would be competitive with the cheapest option, natural gas. Today, even before any of these designs have entered service, the cost estimates are five to six times that level, and there is no sign that they have stopped rising.
On finance, the mandatory opening up of European electricity systems to competition has extinguished the assumption that consumers will underwrite whatever costs are incurred. That means the financial risk falls on the owner, not consumers. Financiers don’t like that equation, especially for a technology with as poor a record for being built to time and cost and operating reliably as nuclear power. Consumers always pay, but plant owners can go bankrupt losing money lent to them by banks.
It has become increasingly clear that a nuclear-power plant will struggle to find finance if destined to operate unprotected in a competitive market. The disastrous Olkiluoto and Flamanville projects suggest the promise of “buildability” was also fanciful – and will have made financiers even more sceptical…. . http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/4956
China raising funds to launch nuclear power, but public sentiment is “fragile”
China to Stoke Nuclear Power, WSJ 6 June 12, State-Owned Firm Plans IPO to Fund Reactors; $5.4 Billion Deal Is Possible BEIJING—China National Nuclear Power Co. said it is planning a Shanghai initial public offering that will go toward financing part
of five power projects worth 173.5 billion yuan ($27.2 billion), in a multibillion-dollar deal that signals that the country’s ramp-up of nuclear power is moving forward..
… China National Nuclear Power, according to a statement on the environmental ministry website, will sell shares to raise funds for nuclear-power projects in Fujian, Zhejiang, Hainan and Jiangsu provinces, the statement said, adding that these projects were approved by China’s National Development and Reform Commission between 2008 and 2010. Those projects require 173.5 billion yuan in funding,…
the IPO could be asking a lot of the country’s equity markets. The commission hasn’t approved any sizable IPOs since May, when the regulator gave the green light to China Postal Express & Logistics Co.’s potentially 9.98 billion yuan deal, though that has yet to
launch. Since early May, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is down 4%.
“A big IPO would weigh on the stock market further as it would divert funds from the secondary market, especially when the sentiment remains fragile,” said Yang Delong, a fund manager at China Southern Fund….. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303665904577449784005256706.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
France’s nuclear dilemma – costs of shutting aged reactors
Nuclear Europe: a dream unwinding, China Dialogue, Steve Thomas June 06, 2012“…… the real challenge – regardless of whether Hollande or Sarkozy had won the election – was always going to be what to do about France’s existing plants when they reach the end of their lives. Under present plans, these ageing reactors will be retired at a rate of five to six per year from 2017 onwards. The cheaper option for the country’s power giant EDF would be to do as the Americans and extend the plants’ lifespans from 40 to 60 years, though thanks to post-Fukushima regulatory requirements that existing plants be made more robust for “extreme situations” this is not such a cheap option as it once was.
On the other hand, if France takes the route of replacing old reactors with EPRs, assuming problems around cost, licensing and construction can be solved, and the EPR remains a viable option, then the cost to EDF of replacing old capacity would be astronomical – far higher than first time around. It is doubtful that France could sustain the logistical and financial challenge of ordering and building four or five EPRs a year for a decade. It would also have to start paying huge sums for decommissioning existing reactors. That leaves France facing some tough choices…. http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/4956
AREVA looks to China to save its nuclear export industry
Areva sets nuclear sights on China http://www.brecorder.com/fuel-a energy/193/1196628/ JUNE 04, 2012 RECORDER REPORT French nuclear group Areva said it is prepared to put its mid-sized Atmea1 reactor into direct competition with a future Franco-Chinese reactor it hopes to help develop in an effort to sweep into China’s booming electricity market.
The head of Areva’s reactors and services division told Reuters it expects to know this year if it has a role to play in the construction of a 1,000 megawatt (MW) third-generation reactor alongside China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holding Co (CGNPC) and French utility EDF. That reactor would compete with the 1,100 MW Atmea1 pressurised water reactor (PWR) that Areva and Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) have developed through their Atmea joint venture.
“If the new product or the development of the product corresponds to a clear opening of the Chinese market, to important industrial returns for us and with the support of EDF and CGNPC, I have no qualms about cannibalising Atmea1, and neither does MHI,” Claude Jaouen said in an interview.
The Franco-Chinese project is in a preliminary phase with EDF, CGNPC and Areva, in agreement with MHI, looking to see to what extent the reactor can resemble Atmea1 and at what cost.
Under France’s previous government, the Nuclear Policy Council last year decided to forge a partnership with China to build a new type of nuclear reactor, widening France’s nuclear range with a cheaper and smaller model than the 1,600 MW EPR reactor, which has suffered from cost overruns and delays.
Rapid growth in renewable energy jobs
Renewable Energy Sector Employs Over 5 Million http://www.energymatters.com.au/index.php?main_page=news_article&article_id=3234 4 June 12, by Energy Matters According to a recent UN report, the number of renewable energy jobs doubled globally between 2007 and 2011 and millions more will be employed in the sector over the next 20 years.
The shift to a greener global economy could see an additional 15 to 60 million additional job over the next two decades according to a study led by the Green Jobs Initiative; a UN International Labour Organization (ILO) project. Continue reading
Wales would do better with renewables, tourism, than with nuclear power
Anti-nuclear group Pawb’s Anglesey job creation plans, BBC New North Wales, 1 June 12, The existing Wylfa plant has permission to operate until 2014
One nuclear reactor to be closed
Talks to find Wylfa B investors
Firms drop new Wylfa nuclear plan
An anti-nuclear group has published plans on how it believes jobs can be created on Anglesey. People Against Wylfa B (Pawb) says the fact companies have pulled out of plans for a new nuclear power station shows the economic case is weak.
It proposes an offshore wind farm and the promotion of tourism instead……
At the time talks were continuing to find investors, after the company which was to build a new nuclear power station on Anglesey pulled out…..
Pawb says up to 3,000 jobs could be created on the island, and Dr Clowes said one plan being backed is a proposal for a massive offshore wind farm between Anglesey and the Isle of Man…..
The solar photovoltaic (using solar panels to convert sunlight into electricity) industry is increasing apace. These are seen as Cinderella-type industries… but they are real jobs, here today,” he added. Tourism could also be developed, he argued. He said the Welsh government had put “all its eggs in one basket” by backing Wylfa B and
saw it as the cure-all.
“Many opportunities have been lost,” he added…. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-18292401
USA’s famous new nuclear reactors – a money pit
Watchdog: New nuclear plant will exceed budget, Online Athens, By RAY HENRY – Associated Press, May 31, 2012 ATLANTA — A state monitor said he believes Southern Co. will exceed its $6.1 billion budget to build a first-of-its-kind nuclear plant, according to a report released Thursday.
The warning from nuclear engineer William Jacobs. Jr. was his bluntest assessment yet on the possibility that Southern Co. subsidiary Georgia Power will need more money to construct two more nuclear reactors at Plant Vogtle near Augusta. Cost overruns plagued the industry during the last round of nuclear construction years ago. The 2.4 million
customers of Georgia Power ultimately pay for the building costs.
“In my opinion, the Company will need to request an increase in the certified cost and a change in the certified schedule to a later completion date,” said Jacobs, who was hired by the state’s Public Service Commission to monitor construction progress….
.. The report marked a change in tone for Jacobs. When asked in written testimony whether the plant could be built on budget and schedule, he simply answered, “No.” In previous reports, Jacobs had said Southern Co. faced “significant challenges” sticking to its budget….. http://onlineathens.com/local-news/2012-05-31/watchdog-new-nuclear-plant-will-exceed-budget
Vogtle nuclear reactor construction getting later and later
Southern’s Nuclear Reactors May Be Delayed, Monitor Says, Bloomberg, By Julie Johnsson – May 31, 2012 Southern Co. (SO)’s new nuclear reactors face delays that may boost costs beyond the $14 billion budgeted, an independent construction monitor said.
The reactors, due to be completed in 2016 and 2017, are already running seven-and-a-half months late and could be set back further by “additional potential delays recently identified” by Southern’s construction partners, William Jacobs said in testimony filed on the Georgia Public Service (PEG) Commission’s website today.
Jacobs said the latest delays stem from improperly installed rebar and a design issue, the details of which were redacted from his testimony to protect trade secrets .
Southern and the three co-owners of the Vogtle nuclear construction, 26 miles southeast of Augusta, Georgia, “face significant challenges in maintaining the project forecast at or below” the budget approved by Georgia regulators, Jacobs said. “A possible schedule delay as discussed above would impact the financing cost of the project.”….. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-31/southern-s-nuclear-construction-faces-added-delays-monitor-says.html
Australia’s uranium industry not looking good for the future
The uranium price tanked after the Fukushima disaster and so far there is no sign of a bounce.
Uranium flashpoint in the wild West, The Drum, Jim Green, 22 May 12, Interesting times in the uranium sector. The mining companies have had a few wins in the 14 months since the Fukushima disaster, but they’ve had more losses.
Bill Repard, organiser of the Paydirt Uranium Conference held in Adelaide in February, put on a brave face with this claim: The sector’s hiccups in the wake of Fukushima are now over with, the global development of new nuclear power stations continues unabated, and the Australian sector has literally commenced a U-turn in every sense.
Yet for all the hype, uranium accounts for a lousy 0.03 per cent of Australian export revenue and a negligible 0.02 per cent of Australian jobs. The industry’s future depends on the nuclear power ‘renaissance’, but global nuclear power capacity has been stagnant for the past 20 years, and if there is any growth at all in the next 20 years, it will be modest. Continue reading
Even nuclear industry experts know that the business is a dead cat
The nuclear landscape includes aging plants, rising global demand for energy, competition from cheap natural gas and environmental standards likely to be toughened after the Fukushima crisis in Japan.
A long-anticipated U.S. “nuclear renaissance” has run into headwinds – sagging demand for electricity as the economy slumped, investors wary of new plants that will cost $10 billion or more and then the crisis at Fukushima.
Nuclear meeting opens in Charlotte with debt worries, News Observer BY BRUCE HENDERSON , 22 May 12 Continue reading
Uranium mining industry threatened by plan to enrich depleted uranium stockpile
Uranium miners wary of plan to enrich depleted uranium stockpile, By MEAD GRUVER , May 19, 2012 CHEYENNE — The uranium industry and Wyoming’s congresswoman are questioning a determination by Energy Secretary Steven Chu that releasing and enriching up to 9,200 tons of depleted uranium from a federal stockpile won’t roil the uranium market and undermine prices.
The measure endorsed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is intended to keep open a Kentucky uranium enrichment facility and preserve 1,200 jobs.
Three such planned releases of federal uranium inventories could undermine uranium prices and cost jobs in their industry, the group Uranium Producers of America says……
Uranium prices have been averaging around $50 a pound since spiking above $130 in 2007. Rep. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo. — whose state has more estimated uranium reserves than any other by far, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration — questioned the department’s view of market certainty in the years ahead…… Up to 9,182 metric tons of depleted uranium — a byproduct of uranium enrichment for nuclear reactors — will be processed into the equivalent of 482 metric tons of low enriched uranium. Also the Department of Energy plans to release up to 2,800 metric tons of uranium per year as part of other projects including cleanup at the Paducah enrichment facility and one in Portsmouth, Ohio. http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/uranium-miners-wary-of-plan-to-enrich-depleted-uranium-stockpile/article_ffd65d4e-03d2-5122-af1e-67fdc8249142.html#ixzz1vY7Gpt6f
Japanese industry plans to cope well with a nuclear free summer
Many big companies in the region have said they can manage with power saving steps, and some experts said voluntary steps would probably suffice to shrink the supply-demand gap given growing awareness of energy saving measures.
Japan seeks 15 pct summer power savings in west, May 18, 2012
* Japan avoids mandatory power use limits for summer
* Critics doubt utilities’ shortage forecasts
By Yoko Kubota TOKYO, May 18 (Reuters) – Japan urged at least 15 percent power cuts in its urban-industrial west this summer from 2010 levels to cope with shortages after all nuclear reactors shut down, but stopped short of the mandatory cuts seen in the east last year. The government said on Friday that it aimed to avoid rolling blackouts in the region – home to many manufacturers including struggling electronics giants Panasonic Corp and Sharp Corp – although it needed to prepare just in case. Last summer, the government imposed mandatory usage cuts of 15 percent on customers of Fukushima plant operator Tokyo Electric Power and Tohoku Electric in the east of the country. Neither will face numerical targets this summer as they are expected to meet demand by firing up thermal plants. Continue reading
Nuclear industry downturn in China
Chinese nuclear manufacturers are now dealing with overcapacity as the world nuclear industry enters a trough,
China can manufacture 12 nuclear reactors sets annually whereas the industry needs only 40 sets before 2020
Japan leak sent nuclear industry reeling, 2012-05-19, By Liu Yiyu (China Daily) Japan’s nuclear emergency of last year has left a mark on Chinese nuclear manufacturers, which have since seen billions of yuan worth of orders postponed, a senior industry official said. Continue reading
Massive Olympic Dam uranium mine project might mot go ahead
projects such as the massive expansion of the Olympic Dam copper-uranium mine in Australia and the potash development in Canada are far less certain…… Where the money is put will say a lot about their expectations for demand for specific commodities now and into the future.
Knives Are Out, But Will BHP and Rio Cut?, WSJ, By Robb M. Stewart, May 16, 2012, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have signaled that harder times lie ahead for global miners but have given little indication of where the cuts, if any, will come to the billions of dollars worth of mining projects that both have in the pipeline in Australia and globally.
Neither is backtracking on their long held view about China’s long-term demand for iron ore and coal, but it is now clear that not every expansion project is guaranteed to get off the ground in the current environment–and those that do will be phased in over a longer time period… Continue reading
Japan might manage without nuclear power – a boon for gas and renewables investors
There are certain predictions that seem fairly safe if Japan succeeds in weaning itself off nuclear power so quickly. The switch away from nuclear power should be a major boon to natural gas producers around the world.
Certainly the abandonment of nuclear power would be crushing to uranium miners like Cameco; there would be demand for uranium to service existing plants, but the growth story would vanish.
Last and not least, abandoning nuclear power should be a major positive for renewable energy companies.
THE END OF NUCLEAR POWER: A BOON FOR INVESTORS? The Bull.com.au By Investopedia.com | 14.05.2012 Investors interested in the electrical utility sector and related industries, like mining and engineering, ought to pay a little extra
attention to Japan over the next few months.
With the last operating nuclear plant in Japan going offline for maintenance, Japan will be
operating a nuclear power-free electricity grid this summer. Whether the country gets through the summer without incident or interruption, it seems safe to bet that advocates on either side of the nuclear power debate will be paying close attention…..
This summer will be the real test, as the warm muggy climate of much of Japan puts a strain on the power grid. Last year, the nation made it through by implementing usage limits and asking businesses to shift activity to off-peak hours (weekends and evenings) to reduce peak demand. If similar measures manage to succeed this summer, and residents are not subjected to blackouts or excessive limitations, it may be hard to muster the support to restart those nuclear plants. Activists in other countries could likely point to Japan as proof that nuclear power is not essential. Japan Today, Europe Next? Continue reading
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