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The challenges in projecting future global sea levels

It is well understood that human-caused climate change is causing sea
levels to rise around the world. Since 1901, global sea levels have risen
by at least 20cm – accelerating from around 1mm a year for much of the
20th century to 4mm a year over 2006-18.

Sea level rise has significant
environmental and social consequences, including coastal erosion, damage to
buildings and transport infrastructure, loss of livelihoods and ecosystems.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said it is
“virtually certain” that sea level will continue to rise during the
current century and beyond.

But what is less clear is exactly how quickly
sea levels could climb over the coming decades. This is largely due to
challenges in calculating the rate at which land ice in Antarctica – the
world’s largest store of frozen freshwater – could melt. In this
article, we unpack some of the reasons why projecting the speed and scale
of future sea level rise is difficult.

 Carbon Brief 17th Feb 2026, https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-challenges-in-projecting-future-global-sea-levels/

February 22, 2026 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | climate change