nuclear-news

Rocket fuel eating away at US, China nuclear weapons

Fast-aging fuel has likely rendered many US and Chinese ICBMs unusable, raising urgent questions about their nuclear arsenals.

Asia Times, by Gabriel Honrada, December 10, 2024

Aging rocket fuel may be quietly crippling the world’s nuclear arsenals, according to a new report exposing the ticking time bomb inside both US and Chinese missiles.

This month, South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Chinese rocket scientists have discovered that the solid fuel used in intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) ages much faster than previously known, potentially rendering hundreds of missiles unusable.

Research conducted at China’s National Key Laboratory of Solid Rocket Propulsion in Xian revealed that significant changes in the fuel columns can occur within 30 years, making them unable to withstand the loads during flight. This finding could explain the frequent launch failures experienced by some nuclear powers in recent years.

The study, led by senior engineer Qin Pengju, found that while the aged propellant appeared stable during routine storage, it became significantly more brittle under high pressure. It mentions that the research focused on the solid fuel commonly used in ICBMs: ammonium perchlorate, aluminum powder and hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB) binder.

SCMP says the study’s findings suggest that the fuel’s ductility under pressure can be compromised after just 27 years, leading to possible rapid fractures during launch. It notes that the issue has raised concerns about the US’s declining nuclear deterrent capability, which relies on Minuteman III missiles manufactured in the 1970s and Trident II missiles that have been operational for nearly three decades.

Perhaps illustrating the unreliability of aging ICBMs, a failed Minuteman III ICBM test in November 2023 has heightened concerns about the US’s aging land-based nuclear arsenal. The unarmed missile was terminated during a launch from Vandenberg Space Force Base due to an anomaly.

While the Minuteman III as a whole is still considered a reliable weapons system, its subcomponents, such as the silo, electronics and warhead, are old and may have been neglected.

Asia Times has previously reported that the US faces mounting pressure to replace its aging Minuteman III ICBMs as delays and cost overruns plague its next-generation LGM-35A Sentinel program.

Budgeted initially at US$95.8 billion, the Sentinel’s cost has surged to an estimated $160 billion, forcing the Pentagon to justify the increase under the Nunn-McCurdy Amendment. Due to Covid-19 disruptions and inflation, production delays have postponed its deployment until 2029. As a result, the US Air Force must extend Minuteman III’s lifespan.

Aside from old delivery systems, Asia Times reported in January 2024 that the aging of plutonium pits in US nuclear weapons poses a significant challenge to the country’s strategic deterrent. Despite plutonium’s 24,000-year half-life, microscopic changes over time can affect the storage safety and explosive yield of nuclear weapons.

The US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has struggled to produce new plutonium pits, with current production capacity unlikely to meet the goal of 80 pits annually until 2030 or later. This shortfall is attributed to a post-Cold War culture of complacency, a lack of skilled workers and restrictive environmental regulations.

Existing pits, designed for older weapons, may not perform as required in newer systems, raising concerns about the reliability of the US nuclear arsenal.

Keeping the 1970s-era Minuteman III poses significant challenges. In a February 2014 RAND report, Lauren Caston and other writers mention that central to keeping the aging Minuteman III in service is the aging infrastructure and components that require continuous modernization to maintain operability………………………………………………………………………………….. more https://asiatimes.com/2024/12/rocket-fuel-eating-away-at-us-china-nuclear-weapons/

December 12, 2024 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | safety, USA