Facing enormous pressure at home and abroad, how much longer can Israel continue its war in Gaza?

April 8, 2024 Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set a high bar for victory right at the start of the Gaza conflict: the complete destruction of Hamas and freedom for all of the approximately 250 hostages taken by the group during its raid into Israel on October 7 last year.

He has doubled down several times on these objectives. During a media conference in January, he said:

There are those who claim victory is impossible. I utterly reject this. Israel, under my leadership, will not compromise on less than total victory over Hamas.

On that measure, Israel is still a long way from victory six months into the war. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have had no trouble destroying buildings and other infrastructure in Gaza, resulting in enormous numbers of civilian casualties and immense suffering for residents, but their hold on territory seems tenuous.

Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer wrote in this week’s Sunday Times, for instance, that when he was embedded with an IDF unit recently, he had observed what he believed to be Hamas snipers in the ruins of the Al-Shifa Hospital following the army’s “successful” conclusion of its operations there.

The other goal of freeing the Israeli hostages still seems far off, as well. There were hopes for more releases following the brief ceasefire in November negotiated by Qatar, Egypt and the US, which led to the exchange of 105 hostages for 240 Palestinian prisoners.

But just three Israeli hostages have so far been freed by Israeli military action. About 100 hostages are believed to be still in Gaza, and alive.

Despite these poor results, Netanyahu argues that only military pressure on Hamas will lead to more hostage releases. Netanyahu, who leads the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, has the support of his cabinet in this belief………………………………………………………………………………

So, is Hamas then ‘winning’?

Unlike the Netanyahu government, the Hamas leadership has not publicly set a standard by which it might measure victory. However, it’s obvious: the war is a zero-sum game. If Hamas survives, Israel loses.

That’s a much lower bar, and Hamas seems to believe it has the momentum. Since the temporary truce in November, Hamas has hardened its demands for a new hostage-prisoner exchange deal to include a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and permanent ceasefire……………………………………………………………………………………….

Netanyahu has become accustomed to facing down US presidents over his years in power, but Biden’s message certainly got through to him. He hurriedly convened a cabinet meeting to approve the opening of three aid pathways into Gaza.

But did this really mark a turning point for US support for Israel? The US has already reduced its diplomatic support for Israel, having abstained on a ceasefire resolution in the UN Security Council last month, which allowed it to pass.

A far more serious step would be to reduce or place conditions on US weapons sales to Israel. However, such a move is not likely at this stage. It would run counter to the long-held bipartisan US policy towards Israel, which virtually since the creation of the Jewish state has been to ensure its survival in a region where it is surrounded by enemies. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………

Biden’s plan for a political settlement in the territory is for the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank to be revitalised and take over management of Gaza after Hamas’s defeat. How that might be achieved given the Palestinian Authority has little credibility with Palestinians and even less with Israelis is not at all clear.

Even more worryingly, Hamas’s demise still seems a long way off.

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April 9, 2024 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Uncategorized