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‘Everyone needs to calm down’: experts assess Russian nuclear space threat

Attacks in Earth’s orbit as likely to damage Russian interests as western ones, says leading academic

Nicola Davis , 15 Feb 24, Guardian,

Rumours that Russia is planning to deploy nuclear weapons in space have been dampened down by experts who say that while such technology is possible, there is no need to push the panic button.

The furore kicked off on Wednesday when the head of the US House of Representatives’ intelligence committee, Mike Turner, called for the Biden administration to declassify information on what he called a “serious national security threat”.

While Turner gave no further details, it was later reported by news outlets, citing unnamed sources, to involve Russia’s potential deployment of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon in space. The Kremlin dismissed the claim as a “malicious fabrication”.

Dr Bleddyn Bowen, an associate professor at the University of Leicester who specialises in outer space international relations and warfare, said the the lack of detail was no reason to panic. “It’s so vague and cryptic, it could be a number of different things. [But] no matter what they are, none of them are a big deal, to be honest. Everyone needs to calm down about this.”

Russia is bound by several legal restrictions regarding the use or presence of nuclear weapons in space. Article 4 of the Outer Space treaty (1967) bans nuclear weapons from being put into orbit, installed on celestial bodies or otherwise stationed in outer space, while the New Start treaty aims to reduce the number of deployable nuclear arms. The Partial Nuclear Test Ban treaty (1963) bans nuclear explosions in space.

Even if Russia ignores these agreements, there are other considerations. Bowen said the rumoured threat may relate to nuclear-tipped anti-satellite weapons but that such a threat was nothing new.

“These are the first and the most crude kind of anti-satellite weapons ever built: the Americans had them in 1959.” He said any state with nuclear weapons already had the technology to use them in space, broadly speaking.

Another possibility, Bowen said, was that the threat related to space-based nuclear weapons that could be used to knock out satellites. Again, the idea is not entirely new: Russia has previously explored the stationing of nuclear weapons in space, albeit to attack ground targets……………………………………………………………………………………

Space-based nuclear weapons are vulnerable to attack from other nations, while the damage from such weapons would be indiscriminate.

“When you detonate a nuclear weapon in space you generate the fireball … but what you [also] generate is the electromagnetic pulse which fries the electrical circuits of anything that’s unshielded within a few thousand kilometres’ radius,” he said. The pulse may also knock out power grids on Earth if the bomb is detonated above or near populated areas.

“After that, you have the radiation that the bomb would generate,” Bowen said. Over time it would fry the electrical circuits of satellites in the wider part of Earth’s orbit.

The loss of satellite services could affect myriad systems on Earth, from telecoms to satellite navigation services. “That can have knock-on effects to the economy, to critical infrastructure, to the financial system, which relies on these satellites.”

In other words, while nuclear bombs could take out a desired satellites, they could also damage Russia’s technology and interests.

“You’ve got to be in a very desperate situation to want to do something like that,” he said. “So I am not losing any sleep over this.”

Russia also has other technology to hand. In 2021 Russia tested a direct-ascent anti-satellite missile, successfully knocking out one of its own defunct satellites.

But James Green, a professor of public international law at the University of the West of England, said he was also dubious that that system would be deployed. “I think Russia likes to project its space power [to appear] greater than it probably is,” he said.
 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/experts-russian-nuclear-space-threat

February 18, 2024 Posted by | Russia, space travel, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Dutch appeals court orders Netherlands to stop exports of F-35 parts to Israel, citing war in Gaza

AP News, BY MOLLY QUELL, 10, February 13, 2024

THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — An appeals court ordered the Dutch government on Monday to halt the export of F-35 fighter jet parts to Israel, citing a clear risk of violations of international law.

A trio of human rights organizations brought a civil suit against the Netherlands in December, arguing authorities needed to reevaluate the export license in light of Israeli military action in the Gaza Strip.

“It is undeniable that there is a clear risk that the exported F-35 parts are used in serious violations of international humanitarian law,” Judge Bas Boele said in reading out the ruling, eliciting cheers from several people in the courtroom.

The exports must cease within seven days……………………………………………

Oxfam Novib, Pax Nederland and The Rights Forum filed the case in December. They argued the continued transfer of the aircraft parts makes the Netherlands complicit in possible war crimes being committed by Israel in its war with Hamas.

In January, a lower court sided with the government, allowing the Dutch to continue sending U.S.-owned parts stored at a warehouse in the town of Woensdrecht to Israel. The Netherlands is home to one of three F-35 European regional warehouses.

Other countries are also considering restricting weapons sales to Israel. Human rights groups in the United Kingdom have brought a similar suit against their government, attempting to block weapons exports to Israel.

In the United States, Democrats in the Senate are pushing a bill that would require President Joe Biden to get congressional approval before greenlighting weapons sales to Israel………………………………….https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-court-f35-israel-b33608b054a33fbacc518395b53b74e8

February 18, 2024 Posted by | EUROPE, Legal | Leave a comment

Ukraine set to lose key Donbass city – White House

 https://www.rt.com/russia/592511-key-donbass-city-loss/

With Russia poised to capture Avdeevka, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby has called on Congress to give Kiev more ammunition

Russian forces are preparing to capture the Donbass stronghold of Avdeevka after “particularly intense” fighting, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Thursday. 

Situated just ten kilometers north of Donetsk, Avdeevka had been used by the Ukrainian military as a staging ground for attacks on the city since 2014, many of which targeted civilians. They constructed deep bunkers there, with Russian military bloggers comparing the town to a “fortress.”

Fighting around Avdeevka is “particularly intense,” Kirby said at a press conference. “We’re getting reports from the Ukrainians that the situation is critical, the Russians continuing to press Ukrainian positions every single day,” he stated, adding that “Avdeevka is at risk of falling into Russian control.”

It is unclear how many troops Kiev has lost attempting to hold Avdeevka. Kirby linked the impending fall of the town to ammunition shortages, a problem well documented by Western media in recent months. The White House spokesman called on Congress to pass a bill that would give Ukraine a $60 billion infusion of military aid, stating that this would “provide Ukraine with the artillery shells that they desperately need to disrupt these Russian assaults.”

While the US Senate passed the bill earlier this week, it remains a non-starter in the House of Representatives, where the slim Republican majority have demanded that it include a major tightening of US immigration law and “real border security provisions,” according to House Speaker Mike Johnson. 

Ukraine appears determined to hold Avdeevka at all costs, with President Vladimir Zelensky naming Aleksandr Syrsky – a general infamous for tolerating severe losses – as commander-in-chief of his armed forces last week. Syrsky immediately deployed Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade – an elite Western-armed unit made up of the remnants of the neo-Nazi Azov regiment – to Avdeevka, where they relieved the beleaguered and depleted 110th Mechanized Brigade.

While Ukrainian officials have not conceded defeat in Avdeevka, German reporter Julian Roepcke claimed on Thursday that “the Ukrainian army is in the process of pulling out,” while Russian forces are “quickly advancing inside and around the town.” According to Roepcke, the Russian flag is now flying at the entrance to the town, at the same spot where Zelensky took a selfie during a publicity visit in December. 

February 18, 2024 Posted by | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

EDF refuses to give the EPR2 cost estimates to the commission of inquiry

EDF refuses to give the EPR2 cost estimates to the commission of inquiry
(even behind closed doors), which therefore threatens to launch proceedings
against EDF managers.

 @MathieuVVyve 15th Feb 2024

February 18, 2024 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Cut in Half by Russians, Avdiivka is Reinforced by Ukrainian Nazi Azov Battalion – Massive Missile Strike on Reinforcements Causes Some Defenders to Withdraw

The heavily fortified frontline town of Avdiivka, split in two by Russian forces, witnesses some of the Ukrainian defenders begin to retreat of some areas to ‘more favorable positions’.

The supply lines of the AFU in the southern sector are now under extreme pressure.

Besides the multi-pronged ground attack that is overextending the defenses, a reason for the rapid advance of the Russian forces in Avdiivka is the aerial support: a FAB guided munition drops almost immediately on any place where a concentration of Ukrainian military is spotted.

Telegram channel Ukraine Watch reported that in the first third of February alone, the Russian Aerospace Forces dropped about 460 aerial bombs on the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This includes FAB-250/500/1500 and ODAB.

his partial folding of the defenses is a bit surprising because up until a couple of days ago, the New Ukrainian commander Syrsky was still rumored to be withdrawing elite units from the Rabotino and Verbove fronts to immediately reinforce Avdiivka.

This reportedly includes more of the 47th as well as the 3rd Assault Brigade, better known as the Nazi ‘Azov’ battalion.

These brigades were thrown directly into the center of battle.

Simplicius the Thinker reported:

“After witnessing the nightmare of Bakhmut, they [Ukrainians] now understand what awaits the soldiers in Avdiivka. But what’s most interesting, is you’ll recall that their narrative was previously that Bakhmut was a ‘successful operation’ because it allegedly grinded down such a disproportionate number of Russian troops, that the city defense served its purpose. But when that truth is put to the test in reality, Ukrainians instead recognize that it’s actually them getting ground down amid desperate calls for withdrawal. If Bakhmut was such a ‘success’, then they would be happy to keep their men in Avdiivka and inflict another such ‘success’ against Russian attackers.”……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Ukraine Watch reported:

“The current situation can be described as difficult. That is, the enemy is now advancing practically along the entire front line, and we have switched from offensive actions to a defensive operation. And the aim of our defensive operation is to exhaust the enemy’s forces, to inflict maximum losses on him, using our fortifications, our technical advantages in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare and the maintenance of prepared defensive lines. The situation at the front was very tense, with the enemy making offensive movements in several directions, in fact all along the line of sight of my group.”

And finally, today, Intel Slava reported that the Ukrainian army is retreating to ‘more advantageous positions’ in Avdiivka, according to Dmitry Likhovy, speaker of the Tavria Armed Forces of Ukraine group.

“In Avdiivka, a maneuver is taking place where our units are withdrawing to more advantageous positions. Supplies to Avdiivka and evacuation from there are difficult. But a reserve logistics artery, prepared in advance, is being used.”  https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/cut-half-russians-avdiivka-is-reinforced-ukrainian-nazi/


February 18, 2024 Posted by | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

War on Gaza: Israeli army chief urges soldiers to stop looting Palestinian homes

Herzi Halevi’s comments come after footage revealed Israeli soldiers stealing necklaces, furniture and pets.

By MEE staff,  16 February 2024,
 https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli-senior-official-tells-soldiers-looting-gaza-homes-impermissible

The Israeli army’s chief of staff has warned soldiers against looting homes in Gaza after numerous videos emerged showing houses being vandalised and ransacked.

According to the Israeli Ynet news website, Herzi Halevi has asked commanders and soldiers to refrain from theft, unnecessary graffiti on the walls and a “breakdown of discipline”.

He pointed to several videos posted online that showed violent and provocative acts that appeared to have little to do with furthering the stated aim of destroying Hamas. 

In one video, a soldier boasts about stealing a silver necklace from Gaza to take back to his girlfriend in Israel. Another video shows a soldier stealing a rug from a Palestinian home, and a third shows a soldier stealing a traditional mirror from a house.

Other videos show an Israeli officer stealing make-up to take as a gift to Israel and a soldier setting fire to food and water supplies.

Theft and vandalism

In January, Israel’s head of the Antiquities Authority backtracked after he appeared to announce that Israel was displaying some stolen artefacts from Gaza in the Knesset.

He had published photos and videos on his Instagram account saying that his deputy went to Gaza to inspect the antiquities, which were reported to have been displayed in the Israeli parliament.

According to Ynet, Halevi’s comments were not welcomed by many commanders, who believe they will affect the morale of the Israeli soldiers.

However, he still insisted that such behaviour should be immediately stopped.

In the first days of the war, Israeli soldiers were not allowed to carry their phones with them in the field, but the restriction appears to have fallen.

Earlier in January, the Gaza government media office said the Israeli army had, since 7 October, looted money, gold, and artefacts worth around $25m.

The media office said it had “dozens of testimonies” provided by residents of the Gaza Strip regarding the thefts.

“Theft operations occurred in various ways, the first of which was at the checkpoints, such as Salah al-Din Street, where they stole from the displaced people who had moved from the northern Gaza Strip to the south, their bags containing their valuable possessions such as money, gold, and artefacts,” the office said in a statement.

February 18, 2024 Posted by | Israel, weapons and war | 1 Comment

Shameless Emmanuel Macron demands British taxpayers cough up more cash for nuclear power

The French are to blame for EDF’s financial woes and the UK taxpayer should not be on the hook, top Brexiteer Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said.

By ALESSANDRA SCOTTO DI SANTOLO, World News Reporter,  https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1866640/Emmanuel-Macron-hinkley-point-power-plant-france-uk-edf, Wed, Feb 14, 2024

A member of Emmanuel Macron’s cabinet has shamelessly demanded that British taxpayers cough up more cash for nuclear power stations. In a move that has ignited a cross-channel spat, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has demanded that Britain contributes additional funds to cover the soaring costs of nuclear power plants being constructed in the UK by French energy giant EDF.

Le Maire made the infuriating request during an International Energy Agency ministerial meeting in Paris, indicating that he would seek “an equitable sharing of costs” for projects such as Hinkley Point C in Somerset and Sizewell C in Suffolk.

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Shameless Emmanuel Macron demands British taxpayers cough up more cash for nuclear power

EXCLUSIVE: The French are to blame for EDF’s financial woes and the UK taxpayer should not be on the hook, top Brexiteer Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said.

By ALESSANDRA SCOTTO DI SANTOLO, World News Reporter, Feb 14, 2024 

France intends to ask the UK Government to share extra costs for the Hinkley Point power plant (Image: Getty)

A member of Emmanuel Macron’s cabinet has shamelessly demanded that British taxpayers cough up more cash for nuclear power stations. In a move that has ignited a cross-channel spat, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has demanded that Britain contributes additional funds to cover the soaring costs of nuclear power plants being constructed in the UK by French energy giant EDF.

Le Maire made the infuriating request during an International Energy Agency ministerial meeting in Paris, indicating that he would seek “an equitable sharing of costs” for projects such as Hinkley Point C in Somerset and Sizewell C in Suffolk.

The cost of Hinkley Point C has skyrocketed to £46billion, a substantial increase from the initially proposed £18billion when contracts were signed in 2016, prompting concerns and discussions about who should bear the financial burden of the overruns.

February 18, 2024 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

TODAY. 11 year old boys and nukes in space.

Yeah – I’ve been reading about the awful threat of Russia sending its evil nuclear weapons up into space to destroy our benign satellites. Shock horror – we could lose TikTok coverage and our media focus on Taylor Swift!

Not to mention that it’s not a great idea to cause nuclear explosions in space, and spread toxic radioactive debris all over the place.

But – is it true?

Are the Russians that stupid?

or the North Koreans, or the Chinese ? Or anyone else that we’re scared of?

Well, they might be. Because. Here’s the rub. The biological development of the male does mean that they have a tendency towards aggression, and to develop inhibition rather late – say towards the age of 30. So the young teenage boys, on average, are a bit keener on risk-taking than they will be at later ages.

This aggression, competitive drive, and low fear of danger was probably useful way back when sabre-toothed tigers were the big threat. But not so useful now when other teenage boys can be a big threat.

The problem is – that risk-taking, competitive, aggressive teenager seems to still live and thrive within the men that are actually running things in our world.

They probably are not planning nuclear weapons to hit satellites, because even they see what a stupid idea that is. However, they’re surely organising all sorts of other ways to damage the satellites of “the other side”. Do you think for one moment that it’s only the Russians etc who are doing this? Of course the 11 year-old boys inside the psyche of the Western leaders are up to the same tricks, and probably leading the pack.

February 17, 2024 Posted by | Christina's notes | Leave a comment

Spending watchdog launches investigation into Sellafield

National Audit Office to examine risks and costs at nuclear waste site in Cumbria

Anna Isaac and Alex Lawson, 16 Feb 24  https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/15/spending-watchdog-launches-investigation-into-sellafield—

Britain’s public spending watchdog has launched an investigation into risks and costs at Sellafield, the UK’s biggest nuclear waste dump.

The National Audit Office (NAO), which scrutinises the use of public funds, has announced it will examine whether the Cumbria site is managing and prioritising the risks and hazards of the site effectively as well as deploying resources appropriately and continuing to improve its project management.

The findings of its investigation are expected to be published this autumn.

Sellafield is Europe’s most toxic nuclear site and also one of the UK’s most expensive infrastructure projects, with the NAO estimating it could cost £84bn to maintain the site into the next century.

Last year, Nuclear Leaks, a Guardian investigation into activities at Sellafield, revealed problems with cybersecurity, a radioactive leak and a “toxic” workplace culture at the waste dump.

Predictions of the ultimate bill for the site, which holds about 85% of the UK’s nuclear waste, vary. It cost £2.5bn to run the site last year, and the government estimates it could ultimately take £263bn to manage the country’s ageing nuclear sites, of which Sellafield accounts for the largest portion.

The site employs about 11,000 people and is the world’s largest store of plutonium. It comprises more than 1,000 buildings, many of which were not created with the intention of becoming long-term storage facilities for radioactive material.

Sellafield is so expensive that the Office for Budget Responsibility, which monitors threats to the UK government’s finances, has warned that it and other legacy sites pose a “material source of fiscal risk” to the country.

The NAO previously examined activities at Sellafield in 2018. It found some aspects of project management had improved but that more needed to be done to get a grip on vast costs and risks.

Amyas Morse, the head of the NAO at that time, found that the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA), which is tasked with management of Sellafield, needed to improve its explanation of its progress so that parliament could hold it to account.

This challenge was underlined when the Guardian uncovered how a worsening leak from a huge silo of radioactive waste at Sellafield could pose a risk to the public.

The leak, from one of the “highest nuclear hazards in the UK” – a decaying building known as the Magnox swarf storage silo – is expected to continue for at least a further 30 years. This could have “potentially significant consequences” if it gathers pace, risking the contamination of groundwater, according to an official document.

This was just one of a catalogue of safety risks arising from ageing infrastructure at the site. A document sent to members of the Sellafield board in November 2022, and seen by the Guardian, raised widespread concerns about a degradation of safety across the site, warning of the “cumulative risk” from failings ranging from nuclear safety to asbestos and fire standards.

Responding to the issues late last year, a Sellafield spokesperson said: “The nature of our site means that until we complete our mission, our highest hazard facilities will always pose a risk.”

Sellafield is owned by the NDA, a quango sponsored and funded by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero that is tasked with cleaning 17 sites across the UK.

The NDA said it had a “responsibility to deliver for the public, including on value for money”.

“We welcome this continued scrutiny and look forward to working with the NAO,” a spokesperson said.

February 17, 2024 Posted by | business and costs, politics, UK | Leave a comment

Australian PM Albanese and 85 Other MPs Vote to End Assange Incarceration

“Enough is enough,” PM Albanese said.

By Diego Ramos , ScheerPost, 15 Feb24,  https://scheerpost.com/2024/02/15/australian-pm-albanese-and-85-other-mps-vote-to-end-assange-incarceration/—

The Australian House of Representatives voted on Wednesday in favor of a motion supporting the end of Julian Assange’s incarceration and to bring him back to Australia. Among the supporters of the motion is Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who, regarding the long term prosecution and detention of Assange, declared, “enough is enough.”

In the motion introduced by MP Andrew Wilkie, the argument is made for the release of Assange from Belmarsh Prison in the UK and returned to Australia. This comes ahead of next week’s court ruling on Assange’s extradition appeal.

Wilkie said, “It will send a very powerful political signal to the British government and to the US government that the British government should not entertain the idea of Mr Assange being extradited to the US.”

86 members of the house of representatives, including Albanese, voted in favor of the motion; 42 members voted against it.

Wilkie, speaking to Parliament about Assange stated, “Surely this man has suffered enough. The matter must be brought to an end.”

Adam Bandt, member of Australian Parliament and leader of the Australian Greens, said, “…[T]his sets an incredibly chilling precedent for journalists in the future and for journalists’ ability to hold governments to account, to say uncomfortable things about governments … and to know that you can tell the truth without facing imprisonment and without facing a risk to your own life.”

If Assange’s appeal is rejected, he faces immediate extradition to the United States, where he would be set to face trial for various charges, including the release of confidential military records and diplomatic cables in 2010.

Wilkie said the vote demonstrated that Australia stood “as one,” on the Assange case and “[r]egardless of what you might think of Mr Assange, justice is not being served in this case now.”

Below is a transcript of the motion authored by MP Andrew Wilkie: [on original]

February 17, 2024 Posted by | AUSTRALIA, politics | Leave a comment

EDF’s setbacks weigh down the relaunch of nuclear power in Europe

Montel. EDF’s recent setbacks in its project to build two new generation EPR reactors in the United Kingdom darken the prospects for the revival of nuclear power in Europe, experts told Montel.

Montel) EDF's recent setbacks in its project to build two new generation EPR reactors in the United Kingdom darken the prospects for the revival of nuclear power in Europe, experts told Montel.

By: Muriel Boselli,  8 Feb 2024, https://montelnews.com/fr/news/1537158/les-revers-dedf-plombent-la-relance-du-nuclaire-en-europe-
A dispute between Paris and London over who should pay GBP 6-8 billion (in 2015 values) for new additional costs for the Hinkley Point C (HPC) project is tarnishing the image of the nuclear industry, at a time when nations European pro-nuclear companies seek to promote atomic energy in the fight against climate change, according to several experts.

Commissioning of the HPC project could be delayed by up to four years and completion costs are now expected to be between GBP31bn and £34bn, according to EDF announcements last month.

Hinkley's problems underline the "slow descent into hell" of the French nuclear industry, Jean-François Raux, former director of EDF and general delegate of the French Electricity Union (UFE), told Montel.

“I have fierce doubts about EDF's ability to build more reactors,” he said, highlighting the delays and additional costs of new construction in France, Finland and the United Kingdom.

Indeed, the start-up of the Flamanville EPR by mid-2024 was “very tense”, with EDF still having to submit compliance documents, the director of the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) declared last week. The project is already twelve years late.

According to a source close to the matter at EDF, the company could even withdraw from HPC, although this scenario is not the most likely. “The board of directors did not sign a blank check for Hinkley, it barely committed to financing the project for 2024,” he assures.

Threat to the relaunch of nuclear power
The French nuclear recovery program provides for the construction of six EPR2s in France at an estimated cost of EUR 52 billion. A first pair of reactors is planned at Penly, in the northwest of the country by 2035-2037.

However, these ambitions are threatened by difficulties encountered at the Hinkley site, experts said.

“The problem is that we will have to launch construction work on two European pressurized reactors at Penly, while we continue to inject billions into HPC,” estimated the source at EDF. “There will inevitably be plasters to wipe and skills to find,” he added, noting that the Penly EPRs will “inevitably encounter difficulties”.

Florence de Bonnafos, campaign manager at Greenpeace, agrees with these comments, believing that EDF's nuclear revival project is unrealistic given the latest cost estimates for the two HPC reactors.

“It’s still a bit complicated to make us believe that we will be able to build six reactors for the same budget as two reactors in Great Britain,” she said.

The schedule slip on the HPC project follows reports that EDF's Chinese partner CGN has pulled out of financing the project, leaving a gap of GBP1bn per year.

The issue could impact funding for the UK's other planned flagship nuclear project at Sizewell C, a joint venture between the UK government and CGN. EDF, in debt to the tune of EUR 65 billion, is expected to make a final investment decision next summer.

Political decisions
The subject of financing is at the heart of a standoff between the French and British governments, with Paris partly accusing the United Kingdom of having frozen its diplomatic relations with China.

Elsewhere, in the Czech Republic, where EDF has submitted a bid to build four reactors, officials could be tempted to choose Korean competitor KHNP, analysts said.

“The main problem is that the decisions taken are more political than industrial,” said the EDF source. “No one thought that we would do HPC and Flamanville in the given time. It was custard. »

In addition, Mr. Raux notes a lack of accountability within EDF. “In other sectors, when things go wrong, leaders are replaced,” he said.

This is the first part of a two-part article devoted to the prospects for nuclear development in the EU.

February 17, 2024 Posted by | business and costs, EUROPE | Leave a comment

From Russia with nukes? Sifting facts from speculation about space weapon threat

“Nuclear weapons in space are a really, really dumb idea,” said Jessica West of Canadian non-profit Ploughshares, but experts note that with Russia, nothing can ever be fully ruled out.

By   THERESA HITCHENSon February 15, 2024 
 https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/russia-nuclear-weapon-space-mike-turner-threat-white-house/

WASHINGTON — In the 24 hours since a cryptic, but scary, warning from Ohio Rep. Mike Turner, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, of a “serious national security threat,” mainstream and social media sites alike have been chock-a-block with breathless, and sometimes contradictory, speculation about what might be going on.

Even as other members of Congress and the White House sought to play down Turner’s statement, leaks began to fill the press that the situation involves some sort of Russian nuclear capability in orbit.

The New York Times today quoted officials “briefed on the matter” as saying that the Biden administration has “informed Congress and its allies in Europe about Russian advances on a new, space-based nuclear weapon designed to threaten America’s extensive satellite network.”

PBS News Hour, on the other hand, on Wednesday said that sources characterized the new weapon as a nuclear-powered satellite carrying an electronic warfare payload — which is a very different beast than a nuclear weapons-carry satellite — but today reported that it is unclear which of those two things is correct.

The most detail shared by the administration came in a press conference today, where White House spokesperson John Kirby confirmed that the threat in question is “related to an anti-satellite weapon that Russia is developing.”  He also noted that it is not an “active capability that has been deployed,” and that “there is no immediate threat to anyone’s safety.” However, Kirby refrained from providing more specific details.

Moscow, predictably, has issued a blanket denial.

Whatever the exact nature of the new threat is, the White House and President Joe Biden are “taking it seriously,” Kirby said, with briefings planned to Congress, as well as allies and partners. Further, he said, the administration is undertaking “direct diplomatic engagement with Russia” on US concerns.

To be clear, any type of Russian on-orbit anti-satellite (ASAT) would be a bad thing. But all things considered, a nuclear weapon in space would be worse than a nuclear-powered satellite carrying a disruptive EW payload — although for a number of reasons much less likely to be what Moscow is up to.

Nuclear Weapons in Space: Been There, Done That

Yes, nuclear weapons have been detonated in space before, by both the Soviet Union and the US during the early days of the Cold War. The largest was done by the US in 1962. After a series of failed tests, the United States conducted the Starfish Prime experiment, setting off a 1.45 megaton nuke at an altitude of about 450 kilometers (about 280 miles) above sea level.

The blast created an electro-magnetic pulse and lingering radiation belts that ultimately killed eight of the 24 satellites that were then on orbit, including one owned by the United Kingdom, according to a 2022 report by the American Physical Society.

There are around 7,000 active satellites on orbit today, as well as 10 humans aboard the International Space Station and China’s Tiangong station. Thus, a nuclear explosion on orbit likely would create even more havoc than Starfish Prime — including, almost certainly, for Russia’s own assets.

“Nuclear weapons in space are a really, really dumb idea, first because they are banned, but also because they have immediate and long lasting indiscriminate effects on the space environment which means that everyone — including the deployer and its allies — is affected,” explained Jessica West of Canadian non-profit Ploughshares in an email.

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, to which both Russia and the US are parties, was created by the United Nations precisely to ban nuclear weapons in space.

“Some people might say that Russia doesn’t care about this because its space capabilities are waning so it has a smaller stake in the game. But I don’t think that any state can aim for functionality let alone ‘great power’ without being able to exploit outer space. There are also easier (and currently legal) ways of having large scale effects on the space environment such as the use of destructive weapons and dirty bombs,” West added.

Todd Harrison of the American Enterprise Institute agreed.

“There is no need to place nukes in orbit. Keeping nukes on Earth atop ICBMs is less expensive, more flexible to operate, easier to upgrade and maintain, etc. But what if your intent is to use the nuke in space (e.g., an EMP blast)? It is still better to base it on the ground,” he told Breaking Defense in an email.

“Detonating nuclear weapons has also been banned by treaty since 1963, not that it would stop Russia from doing it,” he added. “But why did the US and USSR agree to this ban so long ago and stick to it for all these years? It’s because popping off a nuke in space creates a real mess that affects satellites indiscriminately.”

That said, it would be very hard to detect if any country decided to deploy a nuke on a satellites, said Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. He told Breaking Defense in an email today that this verification problem was one of the key findings of an unclassified wargame the center conducted last spring on the use of a nuclear weapon in low Earth orbit.

“My hunch is that nobody wants to admit that this is the case. It’s a pretty important point,” he added.

Nuke-Powered Satellite: Old Tech, New Use?

Several experts said that Russian development of an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon being carried on a nuclear-powered satellite, one using a small nuclear reactor to generate on-board electricity, is a more likely scenario. This is because both NASA and Russia’s Space Agency Roscosmos, have used nuclear power for space systems in the past. Indeed, NASA’s famous Voyager spacecraft carry nuclear power generators.

“The advantage is that a nuclear power source gives you power all the time, instead of being dependent on solar arrays pointing at the sun and charging batteries,” Harrison said.

Russia in the 1970s launched a series of naval reconnaissance satellites, called RORSATs for Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellites, equipped with a small reactor. Infamously, one of them crashed into Canada’s Northwest Territories in 1978, scattering radioactive debris for miles. Thus, the UN has “adopted principles regarding the use of nuclear power sources in outer space,” West said, which focus on safety and peaceful uses.

Still, she noted that “obviously the use of nuclear anything in space is fraught with safety concerns, and when this is combined with a military capability, it adds on security concerns and fears that it could also be used as a nuclear weapon.”

Harrison explained that a nuclear power source could be used to operate a number of payloads capable of disabling satellites.

“A nuclear power source could be used for a lot of things, like powering a radio frequency jamming payload to block signals or a high-powered microwave payload that could potentially fry the circuits on a satellite. Both of these applications would make a lot of sense from space,” he said.

Secure World Foundation’s Brian Weeden, in a thread on X (formerly Twitter), said a nuke-powered EW satellite is likely what the Russians are working on — especially considering that there is evidence that they have been developing such a technology, as documented in a 2019 article in The Space Review. The satellite system in question, called Ekipazh, is being developed by KB Arsenal (or Arsenal Design Bureau) of St. Petersburg under a contract with the Ministry of Defense, the article asserts.

All that said, Harrison said that it is also possible that some other non-nuclear capability is at play.

“Of course, all of the speculation could be completely wrong and it could be some other type of counterspace weapon. Russia has tested crazy things in the past, like firing a machine gun in space,” he said.

“But until we know more, and knowing Russia’s history of ASAT weapon development and testing, it is certainly something to be concerned about. Our economy and military are heavily dependent on space, and Russia knows that,” he added.

February 17, 2024 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

France’s first 6 EPR2 nuclear reactors will cost much more than the planned 52 billion euros.

 Why the first six EPR2s will cost much more than the 52 billion euros
initially planned by EDF. During a hearing in the Senate, the executive
director of EDF’s new nuclear projects, Xavier Ursat, indicated that the
first six EPR2s will cost more than the 52 billion euros announced in 2021.
A first slippage in costs including the new estimate is promised for the
end of 2024.

Why the first six EPR2s will cost much more than the 52
billion euros initially planned by EDF. EDF does not brag about it. But in
the Senate commission of inquiry into the price of electricity, Xavier
Ursat, its executive director in charge of the engineering department and
new nuclear projects, was obliged to talk about it.

As predicted by an expert report in 2021, the construction of the first six EPR2s will indeed
cost more than the 51.7 billion euros, rounded to 52 billion by the State,
calculated by EDF at the time Emmanuel Macron had to decide on the relaunch
of a new nuclear program in France. A relaunch confirmed in his speech on
Belfort’s energy strategy on February 10, 2022. “We are carrying out a
new economic assessment. It led to a figure higher than 52 billion,”
Xavier Ursat declared to the senators. Which, for him, “is not very
surprising”.

 L’Usine Nouvelle 12th Feb 2024

https://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/pourquoi-les-six-premiers-epr2-vont-couter-beaucoup-plus-que-les-52-milliards-d-euros-prevus-par-edf-au-depart.N2208139

February 17, 2024 Posted by | business and costs, France | Leave a comment

Biden disparages Netanyahu in private but hasn’t significantly changed U.S. policy toward Israel and Gaza

As the reported Palestinian death toll in the Gaza Strip reaches 28,000, the president continues to believe that unequivocally supporting Israel is the right policy.

Yet, even as Biden has escalated his rhetoric, he is not yet prepared to make significant policy changes, officials said. He and his aides continue to believe his approach of unequivocally supporting Israel is the right one.

As the reported Palestinian death toll in the Gaza Strip reaches 28,000, the president continues to believe that unequivocally supporting Israel is the right policy.

NBC News, Feb. 12, 2024, By Carol E. Lee, Jonathan Allen, Peter Nicholas and Courtney Kube

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden has been venting his frustration in recent private conversations, some of them with campaign donors, over his inability to persuade Israel to change its military tactics in the Gaza Strip, and he has named Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the primary obstacle, according to five people directly familiar with his comments.

Biden has said he is trying to get Israel to agree to a cease-fire, but Netanyahu is “giving him hell” and is impossible to deal with, said the people familiar with Biden’s comments, who all asked not to be named.

“He just feels like this is enough,” one of the people said of the views expressed by Biden. “It has to stop.”

Biden has in recent weeks spoken privately about Netanyahu, a leader he has known for decades, with a candor that has surprised some of those on the receiving end of his comments, people familiar with them said. His descriptions of his dealings with Netanyahu are peppered with contemptuous references to Netanyahu as “this guy,” these people said. And in at least three recent instances, Biden has called Netanyahu an “asshole,” according to three of the people directly familiar with his comments……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Yet, people familiar with Biden’s private comments said he has told them he believes it would be counterproductive for him to be too harsh on Netanyahu publicly. 

Biden’s frustrations with Netanyahu have also not led to a major policy shift, but his administration has begun to consider such options. Two weeks ago, officials told NBC News that the administration was discussing delaying or slowing U.S. weapons sales to Israel as leverage to get Netanyahu to dial down Israeli military operations in Gaza and do more to protect civilians………………….

Yet, even as Biden has escalated his rhetoric, he is not yet prepared to make significant policy changes, officials said. He and his aides continue to believe his approach of unequivocally supporting Israel is the right one…………………………

“I’m a Zionist,” Biden said, reiterating his views that Hamas must be destroyed and that Israel must be protected, according to the supporter………………………………………………..  https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/biden-disparages-netanyahu-private-hasnt-changed-us-policy-israel-rcna138282

February 17, 2024 Posted by | Israel, politics international, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Russian ‘nukes in space’ scare by Biden admin is nonsense

Russian ‘nukes in space’ scare by Biden admin is BS, Bruce K. Gagnon,
https://space4peace.blogspot.com/2024/02/russian-nukes-in-space-scare-by-biden.html

Remember in 2003 how the New York Times reported that Iraq had WMD which then justified the Bush administration’s ‘shock and awe’ attack? At the time so-called ‘intelligence agencies’ in the US claimed that it was all true. 

It wasn’t.

Fast forward to 2024 and we hear reports from the same corporate media rag that intel reveals Russia has a new super-duper nuclear weapon that can destroy US satellites in space. 

Suddenly its all over the news just days after the Vladimir Putin interview with Tucker Carlson is seen by hundreds of millions (maybe billions by now) around the world. 

Desperation hits the White House.  ‘We’ve got to come up with something big to trash Russia in order to get Congress to vote for the billions for the Ukraine war’. 

And so they did.

It’s all BS.

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty banned weapons of ‘mass destruction’ in space. At the time the US and USSR were worried about one side blowing things up with nukes in space. Thus the incentive for the treaty.

Both sides today have anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) capabilities using kinetic weapons that just crash into a satellite – no explosives involved. So Russia would not need nukes to do the job if they wanted to. Likely lasers are also available to both sides to carry out the task as well.

The US last tested an ASAT in 2008 in Operation Burnt Frost when they launched an ‘interceptor missile’ from a Navy Aegis destroyer that went into space and knocked out an old US satellite.

US, India, China and Russia have developed anti-satellite weapons of some kind – mostly the kinetic variety.

The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to White House claims about the ‘new secret Russian nuclear weapon’ by saying:

“It’s clear that the White House is trying, by hook or by crook, to push Congress to vote on a bill to approve funding [for Ukraine]. We’ll see what tricks the White House will use,” he said.

PAROS

And remember that Russia and China every year for at least the last 25-30 years go to the UN and introduce a new treaty called Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) to ban all weapons that fall outside of the 1967 treaty. In other words, all the new high-tech space weapons that are not covered in the Outer Space Treaty.

The US and Israel routinely block the treaty negotiations (during both Republican and Democrat administrations) saying, ‘There is no problem in space thus no need for a new treaty’. Very self serving.

I believe the Russians have a long history of generally honoring treaties while the US does not.

It was the US that pulled about of the ABM Treaty (Anti-ballistic missile) that outlawed the building, testing and deployment of ‘missile defense’ systems which are key elements in Pentagon first-strike attack planning. 

The US refuses to renounced first-strike while China and Russia have done so for many years.

So who is really the aggressor in space?

When the US claims it will be the ‘Master of Space’ (to ‘control and dominate space and deny other nations access to space’) one must examine closely just who is leading the race to militarize and weaponize space.

See the 1997 US Space Command document ‘Vision for 2020’ that lays that all out here.

Incidentally, the US Space Force was created in 2020 – right on schedule you might say.

Beware of those who promote corporate media reporting of White House lies and deception to keep war$ going.

February 17, 2024 Posted by | spinbuster, USA | Leave a comment

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