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Why Russia, China, and the U.S. Are Suddenly Expanding Their Nuclear Weapons Test Sites

No one wants to be the first to test a nuclear weapon, but everyone wants to be second

Popular Mechanics BY KYLE MIZOKAMI OCT 4, 2023 #nuclear #anti-nuclear #nuclear-free #NoNukes

Recent satellite photos of nuclear test sites in the United States, Russia, and China indicate that all three countries are taking steps to refurbish their nuclear weapons testing sites. None have conducted tests since the 1990s, but all three have viable reasons for resuming testing. One major obstacle to the resumption is the diplomatic and political fallout that would accompany such a test, as the rest of the world would condemn it.

A Three-Way Standoff

CNN asked experts to review images of U.S., Russian, and Chinese nuclear test sites taken from commercial Planet satellites. The experts concluded that there was increased activity at all three sites, including “new tunnels under mountains, new roads and storage facilities, as well as increased vehicle traffic coming in and out of the sites.”

Nuclear tests are typically conducted underground in order to contain the blast and radioactivity, which can be carried by winds and endanger nearby populations. Mountains are particularly useful as testers can dig horizontally, not vertically, to create a space to contain the explosion.

The United States conducted its last nuclear test in 1992, the Soviet Union in 1990, and China in 1996. (Russia inherited the Soviet Union’s nuclear stockpile.) The three countries, which together account for more than 92 percent of all nuclear weapons worldwide, have for decades refrained from testing nukes in what amounts to an unofficial ban. A Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty banning all nuclear weapons explosions exists but has not entered into force because eight countries, including the United States, have not ratified it.

In other words, there is no legal reason why a country can’t test a nuclear weapon. Still, although each of the “big three” countries has reasons why it would want to resume testing, none have so far done so—nobody wants the international condemnation that would accompany the resumption of testing.

United States’ Nuclear Weapons

The United States has 5,244 nuclear warheads divided into eight types, equipping land-based missiles, bombers, and submarines. The U.S. is fairly confident in the reliability of its nuclear arsenal, but there always could be an unseen flaw that would prevent a nuclear weapon from achieving its designated yield—its full explosive power. More nuclear testing could also help fully unlock the secrets of how nukes work.

The U.S. Department of Energy and Department of Defense have developed two new weapon types, the B61-12 nuclear gravity bomb and the W76-2 submarine-launched missile warhead, without actually setting one off. Both warheads are derivatives of existing designs: the B61-12 is just the latest in the long line of B61 bombs dating back to the 1960s, while the W76-2 is a derivative of the W76 warhead featuring a much smaller explosive yield.

Russia’s Nuclear Weapons

Russia fields 5,589 nuclear warheads divided into ten or more types, ranging from strategic weapons mounted on long-range missiles, bombers, and submarines to low-yield tactical nuclear weapons delivered by rocket and cruise missile. The current Russian government has never tested a nuclear weapon, but Russia inherited nuclear weapons, facilities, and experts when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991……………………………

China’s Nuclear Weapons

China is likely the country that has the most to gain from the resumption of nuclear weapon tests. China has a standing arsenal of 410 nuclear weapons, with as few as four to six different warhead types. China ceased testing in 1996, and at the time had the most primitive arsenal of the three powers. Unlike the U.S. and Russia, China mainly sought high-yield, reliable bombs to offset the poor accuracy of its missiles.

China is in the midst of a nuclear arms buildup, having added about 100 to 150 warheads in the past decade. It has also added several new types of delivery systems, including the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile, the JL-3 submarine-launched missile, and the highly anticipated H-20 stealth bomber. Beijing will likely want new, smaller warheads for these systems, particularly if it wants a single missile capable of nuking multiple targets.

While computer modeling and prediction could give China a degree of confidence that a new warhead design works, nobody will know for sure until it is tested.

The Takeaway

The current nuclear testing situation is in a standoff, with the three biggest nuclear powers waiting to see who, if anyone, tests first. Each has their own reasons to resume nuclear testing, but none want the stigma of being the first to break the informal ban. The second country to test would attract much less attention, and the third country even less. While we don’t know when the first new test will take place, the second test by another country will likely follow very quickly afterward.

October 5, 2023 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | weapons and war, World