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Why the US must press for a ceasefire in Ukraine

The war might have been prevented — probably would have been prevented — if Ukraine had been willing to abide by the Minsk agreement, recognize the Donbas as an autonomous entity within Ukraine, avoid NATO military advisors, and pledge not to enter NATO. Nevertheless, what was possible even as late as January 2022 may not be possible now. The Russian annexation of additional territory raises the stakes. But the longer the war continues the harder it is going to be to avoid the utter destruction of Ukraine.

As a key player in Kyiv’s defense and the leader of sanctions against Russia, Washington is obligated to help find a way out.

Responsible Statecraft, OCTOBER 17, 2022, Jack F. Matlock Jr.

Four recent events have put the war in Ukraine on a distinctly more dangerous course.

— The Russian annexation of four additional Ukrainian provinces blocks compromise solutions that were feasible earlier.

— The disabling attacks on both North Stream pipelines make it impossible in the near term to restore Russia as the principal energy supplier to Germany, even if the war in Ukraine should be miraculously ended.

— The Ukrainian attack on the bridge to Crimea gave Russia a pretext to escalate attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets.

— The Russian retaliatory attacks on civilian targets are certain to do more damage to Ukraine than Ukraine can do to Russia. 

The leaders of both Russia and Ukraine have set impossible goals. In fact, not a single participant in the war in Ukraine has espoused a goal that can restore peace in the area. Russia’s recent incorporation of four Ukrainian provinces into the Russian Federation will not be accepted by Russia’s neighbors or by most European powers.

Given the passions aroused by the war and its atrocities, Ukraine, even with NATO support, cannot create a stable, functioning state within all the borders it inherited in 1991. If Ukraine tries to regain these territories by force and is encouraged and empowered by the U.S. and NATO to do so, Russia (and not just President Putin) will very likely demolish Ukraine in retaliation. Reality trumps illusion whenever the two conflict.

And if war should stop with the destruction of Ukraine — Kyiv and Lviv leveled as Grozny once was — that would assume that escalation does not involve the use of nuclear weapons. If the Russian leader feels convinced that the U.S. and “Western” goal is to take him out, what is to prevent him taking out others as he goes?

What Went Wrong

It did not have to happen. When the Cold War ended (by negotiation, not by victory) and the USSR fragmented into 15 separate countries (because of pressures from the inside, not from without), Europe was suddenly whole and free, the goal of U.S. and NATO policy during the Cold War. If the future stability and prosperity of Europe were to be ensured, the principal task was to build a security system covering all the countries of Europe. 

But a succession of American presidents, from Clinton to Trump, chose instead to enlarge NATO, to trash arms control treaties that ended the Cold War, and to enlist former Soviet republics in a military alliance that excluded Russia. Benjamin Abelow summarized the portentous events in his insightful How the West Brought War to Ukraine

The war might have been prevented — probably would have been prevented — if Ukraine had been willing to abide by the Minsk agreement, recognize the Donbas as an autonomous entity within Ukraine, avoid NATO military advisors, and pledge not to enter NATO. Nevertheless, what was possible even as late as January 2022 may not be possible now. The Russian annexation of additional territory raises the stakes. But the longer the war continues the harder it is going to be to avoid the utter destruction of Ukraine.

America’s Security

We Americans can only admire the valiant resistance Ukrainians have mounted to the Russian invasion and should be proud that we have been able to support their defense. Everything possible should be done to make sure that Ukraine survives as an independent state. But that does not mean that Ukraine has to recover all the territory it inherited in 1991. In fact, given all the passions aroused by the war and what preceded it (the violent change of government in 2014 that many Russians considered a coup d’etat organized by the United States), the population in some areas is likely to resist a return to Kyiv’s control.

Some will argue that the United States has a moral obligation to support whatever the Ukrainian leaders demand since “they know best.”

No, they do not know best what is in the security interests of the American people, and that should be the primary concern of any American government. They also, under the stress of war, may not be the best judges of their own ultimate security interests.

…………………………………………………………………………….The issue with Ukraine and Russia of course is not recognition of independence but whether the U.S. should support the Ukrainian goal to restore its control over all the territory it received when the Soviet Union broke up. If pursuit of that goal precipitates the progressive destruction of Ukraine, it is obviously not in Ukraine’s interest.  

Effect on the World

The fighting in Ukraine continues and intensifies while the world is still struggling with the covid-19 pandemic and remains vulnerable to mutations and new pathogens, while global warming is producing ever more destructive effects. Meanwhile, migrations caused by famine, flood, war, and misgovernment are overwhelming the capacity of even the richest countries to absorb the afflicted. And to all of that one must add the threat of Armageddon, a nuclear holocaust — something no rational leader would risk. But rationality cannot be assumed in either domestic or international politics today.

………………………………………………………………. What all the parties to the conflict in Ukraine seem to have forgotten is that the future of mankind will not be determined by where international borders are drawn — these have never been static in history and doubtless will continue to change from time to time. The future of mankind will be determined by whether nations learn to settle their differences peacefully.  

Is There a Way to Stop the War?

There may not be, given the passions aroused by the conflict. Both Ukraine and Russia have lost enough blood that their populations are likely to oppose any effort to give the other side any portion of what it wants. Their presidents hate each other and see any concession as a personal defeat. But the more the war continues, the more Ukrainian lives will be lost, property destroyed, and the probability of a wider conflict increased.

The only practical way to stop the actual fighting would be to agree on a ceasefire. This is difficult for the Ukrainians since they are liberating some of the occupied territories, but the reality is that if the war continues Russia is capable of damaging Ukraine more than Ukraine can damage Russia without risking a wider war.

As principal arms supplier to Ukraine, the U.S. should encourage the Ukrainians to agree to a ceasefire. As the sponsor of the most punitive sanctions on Russia, the U.S. should use its leverage to induce Russia to agree to genuine negotiations during a ceasefire. 

Negotiations must be conducted in private to be successful, which would require a revival of U.S.-Russia diplomacy. Over the past few years, tit-for-tat expulsions have reduced both countries to skeleton diplomatic staffs. Nevertheless, if there is a will to talk and negotiate, ways can be found. So far, it is the will that seems to be lacking.

At present, none of the relevant parties to the conflict in Ukraine seem to be willing to stop fighting and enter into genuine negotiations to bring peace in Ukraine. Until this changes, the fighting stops, and serious negotiations get underway, the world is headed for an outcome where we all are losers.

October 19, 2022 - Posted by | Ukraine, weapons and war



    The lying genocidist, racist Republicans would steal all the money, we put into social security and Medicare. The shitassed, rich centrist democrats are letting them do it . The trillionaire corporate mass media’s subtly encourage it . Half of the deranged demented , fungus brained fools in the usa. who would cut off their nose to spite their face, go along with it! We  work our butts off for 40 years. They say there w will be a recession, if they cannot make, more than half the country completely destitute homeless and starving, by taking all the money they have. Wrong ,lying criminal repuklican scum if you cut social security and Medicare and take it away  it will be
    a great depression.  The ultimate lie, by genocidal racist supremacist devils, who kill for money. They would  give our social security and Medicare money, to the worst rich devils, war profiteers and thieves,, who have already gotten trillions in tax cuts . Cuts   given by Bush Jr. And trump.   Tax cuts Continued by semifascist rightwing  centrist democrats, like Biden and Obama. Tax cuts for the likes of  the Kochs, bezos, gates, Starbucks billionaire shultz, who pays minimum wage. No taxes at all for Billionaire and govt welfare scum like Musk and gates CROOKED CONGRESS DEVILS .  All the oil companies and defense contractors. ,

    Steal social security retirement savings , so that 98 percent of the elderly and retired would be homeless and starving. Half the country or more. No money left in the economy because, they are lying thieving murderous psychopaths . THERE ARE  so many brain dead hateful, racist fools who would starve as well WHO go along them! There are already millions who are homeless.

    Rent is higher in most usa towns and cities now than Tokyo japa where the rents the highest the world!
    Rent unaffordable for most. Working people who can barely afford food, rent, meds, clothes for their children. Working people burdened witH outlandish taxes, while thousands of billionaires and millionaire pay no taxes. Taxes for billions for proxy wars in Yemen and the Ukraine, that cause inflation. You said people should vote for Biden! Demented evil corrupt lying , rightwing scum Biden, who is just a shade less fascist, than the murderous racist rapist trump. Remember the Ukraine is really a bipartisan proxy empire war like all usa wars are with posers who say they are are against but who would kill all the colored people and Jewish and cause a worldwide conflagration w China as well. The demented evil , corrupt Biden and rat nest brained, fascists and gerontocracy from both sides of the supposedly two party war party want it graham, McConnell, Pelosi, Feinstein, most fascists republicans ad they ae all run but  racist fascists now. Madness has spread in the usa like the radioactive wildfires that have engulfed half the USA In The past 5 years.

    Comment by Tina stow | October 20, 2022 | Reply

  2. You hyped up conman criminal, Musk for no good reason. It lied about starlink and contact with Russia. It’s fraudulent stock is crashing so, the fat, ugly, lying, fuk, took to the media and internet to broadcast overhyped lies and bullshit, like alexjones. You bought into it.

    Comment by Eppie Tsong | October 21, 2022 | Reply

    • I didn’t buy into all that. I agreed with some sensible comments that Musk made about ending the war in Ukraine – NOT with the rest of his stuff

      Comment by Christina Macpherson | October 21, 2022 | Reply

  3. Elon musk. It brags about firing thousands. It brags about using slave and child labor. It brags, about destroying the commons and twitter. It brags about helping to finance a fascist coup, in Bolivia, for lithium. It brags about self driving vehicles, that have killed dozens and caught fire. It kills for money

    Comment by Twitter | October 21, 2022 | Reply

  4. Arrogant, stupid EU leader and Nato supporter says Europe is the Garden.
    Doesn’t care to realize, that if there is a nuclear release in Ukraine or nuclear conflagration, how much more radioactive and chemical polluted Europe, will be.

    “Europe is a garden. The rest of the world is a jungle. And the jungle could invade the garden.” “Europeans have to be much more engaged with the rest of the world. Otherwise, the rest of the world will invade us.” – Shocking comments from EU foreign policy headhead@JosepBorrellF

    Comment by Natalia | October 21, 2022 | Reply

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