The War Situation Has Developed Not Necessarily to Ukraine’s or the West’s Advantage But They Plan to Negotiate When They’ve Turned Things Around a Bit
naked capitalism, by Yves Smith,
ust because Russia has been slow and methodical about grinding up Ukraine’s army and materiel in Donbass does not mean that there’s reason to think Ukraine can turn its losses around with generous applications of Western funding, weapons, and hopium. And on the economic war front, even though Russia has taken a hit, it seems to be making surprisingly solid progress in adjusting, while conditions in the US and Europe look to be worsening, and at an accelerating rate.
Admittedly, the press, presumably reflecting the readings of military experts, has greatly reduced coverage of the conflict now that even generous applications of porcine maquillage can no longer hide that things are going from bad to worse for Ukraine. A very long established contact forwarded this message from a former senior US military official:
Just in from an Army Colonel in the building:
“Spoke to someone today who said that the Ukie basic training is 10 days and then off to the front. 65% casualty rates. At least double or more the losses of the Russians but you don’t hear anything about it.”
Recall that Scott Ritter, early on in his many detailed analysis, said that if one side was consistently inflicting casualties at a higher rate than the other, even at a ratio of say 1:1.2, the side with the lower losses would prevail.
Recall also that Ukraine has not made a single significant offensive since the war began. The most it has been able to achieve are small tactical gains that don’t amount to anything over time.
……………………………….. Truth be told, Western officials and the media are increasingly acknowledging that Ukraine can’t win this war, and therefore the two sides need to negotiate a peace. But to invoke a saying I heard in Venezuela, “They have changed their minds, but they have not changed their hearts.” The US and NATO have consumed so much Ukraine Kool-Aide that they are light-year away from what a realistic settlement would have to include. And that’s because they still can’t admit to themselves that Russia is wining, and at this rate, will have taken Odessa before Zelensky will even be willing to cede Donbass. For instance, look at this key statement from Joe Biden’s New York Times op-ed earlier this week:
We have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table
Why should Ukraine keep fighting and losing more men and suffering more damage? Why not sue for peace now? Biden’s unstated assumption is that if the US pumps enough air into the leaking Ukraine balloon, it will be in a better position than it is now. That can come about only by taking territory back or by inflicting huge losses on the Russian side. In what universe is that a likely outcome?
There are also complicating factors on the Russian side. One is that the Russian population regards Putin as too dovish and would much rather have the Ukraine matter be as settled as it can be via this war. That argues for taking more territory, certainly the entire Black Sea coast, probably Kharkiv and perhaps even securing the Dneiper save perhaps hard by Kiev.
A second matter is that many of the “liberated” or expecting to be liberated territories seem to want to join Russia, and not be independent friendlies or part of a Novorossiya (this may be realism as well as romanticism; they are too small to go it alone). One reason for this expectation is that at least some members of the Donbass militias are continuing to fight for the Russian cause in neighboring oblasts, here Kherson.
Recall that Putin was not happy when the two breakaway republics declared independence in 2014, and he had to push them in the Minsk Accord negotiations to accept staying in Ukraine,……………………………………………..
the Guardian get credit for admitting that Russia is winning the economic war – and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops. However, economic editor Larry Elliott’s contains a lot of hand wringing and falsehoods, like the claim that Putin “weaponized” food. But notice that his closing section calls only for “a deal” not a rollback of sanctions. And it’s the sanctions that are hurting the collective West:
If proof were needed that sanctions are not working, then President Joe Biden’s decision to supply Ukraine with advanced rocket systems provides it. The hope is that modern military technology from the US will achieve what energy bans and the seizure of Russian assets have so far failed to do: force Putin to withdraw his troops.
Complete defeat for Putin on the battlefield is one way the war could end, although as things stand that doesn’t appear all that likely. There are other possible outcomes. One is that the economic blockade eventually works, with ever-tougher sanctions forcing Russia to back down. Another is a negotiated settlement.
Putin is not going to surrender unconditionally, and the potential for severe collateral damage from the economic war is obvious: falling living standards in developed countries; famine, food riots and a debt crisis in the developing world.
The atrocities committed by Russian troops mean compromising with the Kremlin is currently hard to swallow, but economic reality suggests only one thing: sooner or later a deal will be struck.
Perhaps Elliott didn’t want to stick his neck out too far by saying ending at least some of the sanctions would be necessary. But the failure to call for that means that politicians with no skin in the game like Ursuala von der Leyen will continue trying to escalate. It doesn’t matter that it isn’t working. These officials have convinced themselves that eyepoking the evil Putin will bring down Russia. They need to heed the oracle’s warning to to Croesus: that if he attacked the Persians, he would destroy a great empire. That empire was his own. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/06/the-war-situation-has-developed-not-necessarily-to-ukraine-or-the-wests-advantage-but-they-plan-to-negotiate-when-theyve-turned-things-around-a-bit.html
Ukraine staging battle scenes for propaganda – Russia
Russia, https://www.rt.com/russia/556544-staged-footage-action-ukraine/ 7 June 22, The propaganda footage was allegedly sponsored by the British government, The Russian Defense Ministry released on Friday what it claimed to be staged combat scenes filmed on behalf of the Ukrainian government and paid for by the British government. The two short clips appear to be raw footage of what looks like a war movie.
The filming of the videos took place on May 28 in the town of Meshkovka in Ukraine’s Nikolaev Region, the ministry said. A train station of the same name is located on the outskirts of the provincial capital in the south of the country.
One of the videos shows two armored vehicles facing the camera. At the command of a woman, who appears to be the film director, the backdoor of the closest vehicle opens, and a group of armed men in uniform wearing red armbands starts pouring out. Several others rise from the grass around the second vehicle in the distance and start moving forward, their weapons raised.
The second clip is a shootout scene, with a group of armed uniformed men retreating through rubble while firing back at an unseen enemy. Pyrotechnics appear to simulate enemy fire. At one point, a professional-looking film crew comes into view.
Ukrainian victory not in the cards – former top US official
https://www.rt.com/russia/556701-ukraine-us-negotiations-zelensky/ The US and its allies should persuade Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, Hugh De Santis says . Ukraine won’t be able to win against Russia, and the US must persuade Kiev to negotiate with Moscow to end the conflict, Hugh De Santis, who oversaw NATO and arms control policy planning in the Reagan administration, has insisted.
Defeating the Russian forces on the battlefield and restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including taking back Crimea, “would be condign punishment for Russia’s unprovoked invasion,” De Santis wrote in his opinion piece for The National Interest magazine on Saturday.
“But would it be worth the cost of more carnage in Ukraine, the possibility of a wider war in which chemical or tactical nuclear weapons might be used, further disruption of the world economy, and renewed European polarization?” he asked.
According to the former State Department official, the answer to that question is negative.
“A Ukrainian military victory is not in the cards, and a negotiated outcome is the only realistic goal,” he insisted.
Because of this, “the US and its allies must persuade Kiev to bring this war to an end, including by imposing limits on further military aid as leverage,” De Santis suggested.
Washington has been actively backing Kiev during the conflict, supplying it with weapons, funds and intelligence. In May, US President Joe Biden approved a $40 billion aid package for Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelensky and “his advocates in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states” should come to terms with the fact that Ukraine will become a neutral state and that it would have to hand over the Donbass and Crimea to Russia for the peace talks to be successful, he pointed out.
Current high-ranking US and EU officials have also recently identified negotiations as the preferred outcome of the conflict as Russian forces continue their steady advance in the Donbass.
Last week, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, said that “a negotiated outcome is a logical choice, but both sides have to come to that conclusion on their own.”
A few days before that, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell urged the bloc to increase deliveries of weapons to Ukraine and apply even more sanctions against Russia, but explained that it should be done to help Kiev strengthen its position in future peace talks with Moscow. Just over a month ago, Borrell was insisting that “this war must be won on the battlefield” by Ukraine.
Russia attacked its neighboring state in late February, following Kiev’s failure to implement the terms of the Minsk agreements, first signed in 2014, and Moscow’s eventual recognition of the Donbass republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. The German- and French-brokered protocols were designed to give the breakaway regions special status within the Ukrainian state.
The Kremlin has since demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join the US-led NATO military bloc. Kiev insists the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked and has denied claims it was planning to retake the two republics by force.
EDITORIAL: Vienna meeting on the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons -best chance for Japan to lead the way
Vienna meet best chance for Japan to make case for
nuclear abolition https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14640066. June 8, 2022 Nuclear weapons must never be used. The international community must stand as one and make this plea. The urgency has never been greater than it is now.
As the only nation to have experienced atomic warfare, Japan’s mission is to lead the way.
The first meeting of the signatories to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons will be held in Vienna late this month against the backdrop of Russia’s war against Ukraine, which has escalated into a threat to use nuclear weapons.
The treaty categorically forbids all signatory nations to own, use or threaten to use nuclear weapons.
It went into force in January last year and has been ratified by more than 60 nations and regions.
The conference has been eagerly awaited as an opportunity to counter moves by the nuclear powers to expand their weapons arsenals and continue calls for a world without nuclear weapons.
All U.N. members are qualified to attend. Some have chosen to participate as observers, without having signed or ratified the nuclear ban treaty.
They include Germany and Norway, members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as well as Sweden and Finland, which have announced they plan to join the military alliance.
Participating in discussions for the elimination of nuclear weapons does not conflict with remaining under the U.S. “nuclear umbrella.”
Observer nations intend to focus on long-term goals while dealing with the current Russian threat.
But the Japanese government has not changed its decision to sit out the conference, asserting there is no point in participating without engaging the nuclear powers in the process.
How will the international community regard the absence of Japan at this conference, given that it is the nation most familiar with the horrors that befell Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
We deplore the government’s stance.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, elected from Hiroshima, has stressed that background in projecting his political persona. He has appraised the nuclear ban treaty as “an important exit.”
We understand Kishida’s position of stressing the importance of Japan’s alliance with the United States.
But that stance must be all the more reason for him to seek Washington’s understanding and proudly attend the Vienna conference. That, we believe, is what “peace diplomacy” boils down to.
In the meantime, the government has appointed young anti-nuclear activists as “special youth envoys” and is sending them to the conference to convey the horrors of atomic bombing to the world.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, elected from Hiroshima, has stressed that background in projecting his political persona. He has appraised the nuclear ban treaty as “an important exit.”
We understand Kishida’s position of stressing the importance of Japan’s alliance with the United States.
But that stance must be all the more reason for him to seek Washington’s understanding and proudly attend the Vienna conference. That, we believe, is what “peace diplomacy” boils down to.
In the meantime, the government has appointed young anti-nuclear activists as “special youth envoys” and is sending them to the conference to convey the horrors of atomic bombing to the world.
We hope the delegation will remind the world firmly of the inhumanity of nuclear weapons.
During the Cold War, nuclear weapons were perceived as “the ultimate weapons that cannot be used.”
But since then, they have been reduced in size and become more readily available. Conspicuous moves have been made to lower the hurdle of their deployment. Fears of an accidental nuclear explosion have not evaporated.
How do we reconcile nuclear disarmament and arms control with initiatives for the abolition of nuclear weapons?
It will be a tough challenge, but we must keep striving to reach this goal.
–The Asahi Shimbun, June 8
Germany rules out nuclear power as an option during the energy crisis.
German Leader Rules Out Nuclear Option to Fill Energy Gaps
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says his government remains committed to phasing out nuclear power despite concerns about rising energy prices and possible future shortages due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
By Associated Press, June 8, 2022, BERLIN (AP) — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Wednesday that his government remains committed to phasing out nuclear power despite concerns about rising energy prices and possible future shortages due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Germany shut down half of its six nuclear plants in December and the remaining three are due to cease production at the end of this year as part of the country’s long-running plan to phase out conventional power plants in favor of renewable energy……………….
“We also know that building new nuclear power plants makes little sense,” he said at a news conference with foreign correspondents in Berlin.
“If someone decides to do so now they would have to spend 12-18 billion euros on each nuclear power plants and it wouldn’t open until 2037 or 2038,” said Scholz. “And besides, the fuel rods are generally imported from Russia. As such one should think about what one does.”
“That’s why the government, all the governing parties unanimously, are counting on (…) the massive expansion of renewable energy,” he added…………..
“The goal of completing the phaseout of coal in Germany ideally by 2030, and the climate targets, remain in place,” Government spokeswoman Christiane Hoffmann said. https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2022-06-08/germany-to-keep-more-coal-plants-on-hand-in-case-of-gas-cuts
Ukraine slams planned IAEA mission to Russian-occupied nuclear plant
Reutershttps://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-slams-planned-iaea-mission-russian-occupied-nuclear-plant-2022-06-07/
June 7 (Reuters) – Ukraine’s state nuclear company Energoatom on Tuesday criticised an IAEA plan to send a delegation to a Russian-occupied nuclear plant in southern Ukraine, saying it “did not invite” such a visit.
“We consider this message from the head of the IAEA as another attempt to get to the (power plant) by any means in order to legitimise the presence of occupiers there and essentially condone all their actions,” Energoatom wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
On Monday, IAEA head Raphael Grossi said the organisation was working on sending an international mission of experts to the Russian-held nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, Europe’s largest. nL1N2XT0LV]
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New film shows the anguish and destruction of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster
| A new documentary contains “lost tapes” of the Chornobyl disaster that have never been seen before, showing the horrific destruction and anguish that occurred during and after the worst nuclear incident in history. In a new trailer for the Sky Original documentary, Chernobyl: The Lost Tapes, HBO released small snippets of footage of the heroic workers that fought to contain the fallout and of the thousands of residents evacuating the area, including the voices of locals that the documentary claims were “silenced” following the disaster. IFL 6th June 2022https://www.iflscience.com/editors-blog/lost-tapes-of-chernobyl-reveal-the-devastating-impact-of-the-worst-nuclear-disaster/ |
UK Nuclear test veterans demand recognition at first meeting with Prime Minister
Boris Johnson was told about debilitating health issues suffered by servicemen and their descendants as a result of radiation exposure. Sophie Wingate 8 June 22
People affected by Britain’s atomic experiments have asked for formal recognition for nuclear test veterans in their first ever official meeting with a prime minister.
A group including a nuclear bomb test veteran, a widow and four descendants told Boris Johnson about their experiences of the tests and,,,,,,,,,,,, (Registered readers only_ https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/boris-johnson-people-joe-biden-christmas-island-rebecca-longbailey-b2096722.html
TODAY. Nuclear weasel words: doncha love this one – ”Challenge”?
It’s looking as if hatred between Ukrainians and Russians is now a more important priority than the safety of Europe !
”Challenge” is one of the nuclear industry’s favourite topical weasel words. ”Challenge” is the one they use when they mean – at the very least – ”Problem”. But it also covers ”disastrous nuclear situation” and ”impossible obstacle” and ”omigawd we don’t want people to understand how bad this is”.
The nuclear industry prefers not to mention such matters, but, when it has to – they are ”Challenges” – e.g, the IAEA – Radioactive Waste: Meeting the Challenge. Sounds so much better that – ”This is so God-awful we don’t know what to do with it.” (Indigenous groups in Canada are today using the word more authentically).
Today, the IAEA Director General talks of ”challenging conditions” in Ukraine’s nuclear reactors. ”Challenging” is an understatement. Now there’s a worrying spat between the IAEA and Ukraine government – Ukraine’s nuclear power plant operator is accusing Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, of “lying” . That’s because Grossi wants to send experts to check on the safety of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear complex – the biggest in Europe, but now under the control of the Russians.
It’s looking as if hatred between Ukrainians and Russians is now a more important priority than the safety of Europe !
Geo-political readings on the Russia / Ukraine conflict 8.6.22 —
Yet again, we find ourselves presenting more geo-politically orientated readings on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. If anyone is serious about stopping wars, it’s vital to understand how they get started. That means getting a grip on the power dynamics at play between the protagonists, who is backing each protagonist and most important […]
Geo-political readings on the Russia / Ukraine conflict 8.6.22 —
American senator calls for creation of Pacific NATO — Anti-bellum
Nikkei AsiaJune 7, 2022 Create a NATO for the Pacific, U.S. senator proposes The U.S. should push back against China’s efforts to expand its sphere of influence by creating a “Pacific NATO,” a senator has proposed. Sen. Ben Sasse, a Republican from Nebraska known as a prominent critic of Donald Trump, blasted both the former […]
American senator calls for creation of Pacific NATO — Anti-bellum
TEPCO’s former management forced to indict former management.
Just a travesty of justice: The designated attorney requested an on-site inspection at the appeal hearing, but the trial concluded today without such an inspection.
June 6, 2022
The appeal trial for the mandatory prosecution of three former TEPCO executives over the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, in which they were acquitted at the first trial, concluded today without an on-site inspection.
Former TEPCO Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata and three other former TEPCO executives were indicted on charges of manslaughter in connection with the nuclear accident.
The first trial court acquitted them in 2019 on the grounds that “it is not recognized that they could have predicted the occurrence of a huge tsunami,” and the designated lawyer acting as the prosecutor appealed the verdict.
At the appeal hearing held today at the Tokyo High Court, the designated lawyer pointed out that “the three could and should have foreseen the tsunami,” based on the “long-term assessment” issued by the government’s earthquake headquarters before the disaster. He argued that the first trial court’s decision to deny the reliability of the long-term assessment was erroneous.
The defense, on the other hand, argued for acquittal on the grounds that “there was no error in the first trial.
The designated attorney requested an on-site inspection at the appeal hearing, but the trial concluded today without such an inspection.
https://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/articles/-/63459?display=1
Three former TEPCO executives to be sentenced on appeal in December-January, or forced prosecution for nuclear accident.
June 6, 2022
On June 6, the Tokyo High Court (presided over by Keisuke Hosoda) held the third hearing of an appeal against three former TEPCO executives who were indicted on charges of manslaughter and death for negligence in connection with the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident and failure to take tsunami countermeasures. The designated attorney acting as the prosecutor requested that the Tokyo District Court ruling acquitting the three be reversed, and the defense reiterated its plea of not guilty at the conclusion of the trial. The verdict is expected in December or January next year.
The three defendants are Tsunehisa Katsumata, 82, former chairman; Ichiro Takekuro, 76, former vice president; and Sakae Mutoh, 71, former vice president. The main point of contention, as in the first trial, is whether the three defendants were able to foresee the occurrence of the giant tsunami and whether they were able to take measures to prevent the accident.
Designated Lawyer: “The First-Instance Judgment is Wrong
The district court ruling in 2007 rejected the reliability of the “long-term evaluation” of earthquake forecasts released by the government in 2002, and ruled that the earthquake was not foreseeable enough to shut down the plant.
On the day of the hearing, the designated attorney appealed that the first instance decision was erroneous, citing the example of the reliability of the long-term assessment being recognized in a civil court ruling on liability for the accident. He stated, “If reliability is recognized, the validity of the first instance judgment will be overturned from the bottom up.”
The defense, on the other hand, countered that the fact-finding process in a criminal trial is different from that in a civil trial, and that “this is no basis for holding that the first-instance decision was erroneous.
According to the representatives of the families of the victims in the criminal trial, the high court explained after the conclusion of the trial that it would set the date for the verdict in December or January of next year.
https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASQ666G1BQ66UTIL01Z.html?fbclid=IwAR2xTS7IOPmNLwpMZsg1IPg8jscudVShWhxI-2n1YH2o2dQA2qi5h-kX2Ck
Appeal Hearings End for 3 Ex-TEPCO Execs over 2011 Meltdowns
June 6, 2022
Tokyo, June 6 (Jiji Press)–Tokyo High Court concluded on Monday hearings for three former executives of Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc. <9501> in an appeal trial over the 2011 meltdowns at its Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant.
The three are former Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata, 82, and former executive vice presidents Sakae Muto, 71, and Ichiro Takekuro, 76. The court is likely to issue its verdict in December or the following month, according to an attorney in the trial.
The trio came under mandatory indictment on charges of professional negligence resulting in death and injury over the unprecedented triple meltdown at TEPCO’s Fukushima No. 1 plant in northeastern Japan and were acquitted in the first trial.
In the first trial, hearings were held 37 times, while only three hearings took place for the appeal, including the first one in November last year.
Lawyers appointed to act as prosecutors had asked judges to conduct on-site inspections and demanded former senior officials of the Japan Meteorological Agency testify about the government’s long-term assessments of earthquake and tsunami risks.
TEPCO issues 1st apology from president for nuclear accident
Face value skin-deep apology: So sorry that we destroyed your life, your health and your living environment but happy that the court gave us only a chump change damages compensation to be paid for all of that.
June 6, 2022
FUTABA, Fukushima Prefecture–Tokyo Electric Power Co. apologized to a group of plaintiffs who won a damages suit against the utility for the first time under the name of its president.
“We sincerely apologize to you for upending your lives and causing irreparable mental and physical damage with the nuclear disaster,” TEPCO President Tomoaki Kobayakawa said in the statement.
The apology was read by Kazuyoshi Takahara, representative of the utility’s Fukushima Revitalization Headquarters in Futaba, Fukushima Prefecture, to some of the plaintiffs who visited on June 5. He bowed after reading the statement.
Kobayakawa was not among the TEPCO officials who received them.
The apology followed the Supreme Court’s decision in March that upheld the Sendai High Court’s order for the utility to pay more compensation to the victims than outlined in the central government’s guidelines.
Naoko Kanai, who heads the group’s secretariat, said, “I would like to accept the apology and want to believe the words reflect the company’s determination to make efforts to restore the lives of the residents.”
But Tomio Kokubun, a deputy leader of the plaintiff group, blasted the absence of the TEPCO president when offering the apology.
“It shows a lack of common sense, given that the company caused an accident of such magnitude,” he said.
The group of 216 plaintiffs sued the company for the “loss of their hometowns” after they were ordered to evacuate when the triple meltdown unfolded in March 2011 following the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami.
The lawsuit was among about 30 similar lawsuits brought against TEPCO.
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