Nuclear power – a renaissance? or another false dawn?
Nick Butler: Nuclear power has been in decline since the Fukushima disaster in Japan more than a decade ago. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and soaring natural gas prices have led some to argue that nuclear energy can help solve the twin challenges of energy security and climate change. Is the industry back in business, or will this prove to be another false dawn?
Until recently, nuclear power’s prospects seemed poor. Plants built in the 1970s and 1980s are nearing the end of their working lives, while Germany and Japan decided to shut down theirs for political reasons. Of the relatively few new nuclear plants currently being built, many have been blighted by management failures and technical faults.
The flagship EPR pressurized water reactors at Flamanville in northern France and Olkiluoto in Finland are, respectively, 13 and 12 years behind schedule. Hinkley Point in southwest England, which was supposed to have provided the power to cook Britain’s Christmas turkeys in 2023, may now be operational in 2027.
Inevitably, all of these projects are massively over budget. However, there is significant interest in the potential of nuclear power to replace the Russian natural gas supplies on which the EU has depended for the past 40 years. French President Emmanuel Macron announced before the recent presidential election that France would build up to 14 new nuclear reactors, starting in 2028. And Poland submitted plans in March for the construction of six new reactors.
Supporting this trend, firms such as Rolls-Royce in the United Kingdom and NuScale in the US are developing a new generation of small modular reactors (SMRs) that can be built and commissioned in under 10 years.
But a nuclear renaissance is far from certain. Today, more reactors are at risk of closure and decommissioning than are being built. Although public sentiment has become more favourable to nuclear power in most countries, entrenched resistance, underpinned by environmental and safety concerns, continues to impede a renaissance.
Local planning processes are extensive and bitter. Construction takes time, not least because of the extensive safety assessments required, and time costs money. As a result, projects will proceed only where there are credible guarantees regarding future pricing and power purchases. The nuclear industry is still failing to deal effectively with the problem of waste disposal. At plants such as Sizewell in eastern England, there is the additional challenge of securing sufficient water supplies to operate the reactors. Because of the lead times involved, nuclear energy cannot offer a solution to today’s challenges.
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