The way that China plans its nuclear weapons strategy
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The role of nuclear weapons in China’s national defence, The Strategist,
27 May 2020, Fiona S. Cunningham At the end of April, two upgraded Chinese Type-094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) reportedly went into service. But China’s SSBN capability is a far less important component of its nuclear deterrent than its land-based missile force. And that nuclear deterrent plays an important but limited role in China’s national defence. Absent major strategic change, the role of nuclear weapons in China’s national defence strategy is unlikely to expand. And absent major technological change, the relative importance of China’s sea-based deterrent is also unlikely to grow.
Although the commander of US Strategic Command, Admiral Charles A. Richard, recently stated that he could ‘drive a truck through China’s nuclear no first use policy’, that policy has played a critical role in China’s nuclear force development since 1964. China’s nuclear force structure is optimised to ride out an adversary’s nuclear strike and then retaliate against an adversary’s strategic targets, rather than credibly threaten first use. China’s operational doctrine for its nuclear forces doesn’t include plans for the first use, or threat of first use, of nuclear weapons in a conventional conflict. While Chinese leaders and strategists have debated changes to the no-first-use policy from time to time, there’s no sign that China plans to abandon it. The policy was most recently reaffirmed in China’s 2019 defence white paper.
China’s top leaders in the politburo and Central Military Commission exercise strict control over both the formulation of nuclear strategy and the authority to alert or use nuclear weapons. To ensure they’re not used accidentally, mistakenly or without authorisation, nuclear weapons are kept off alert in peacetime and warheads are stored separately from delivery systems in a central depot deep in the country’s interior. There are two potential changes to the threat environment that could prompt Beijing to rethink its restrained nuclear posture: a dramatic increase in the intensity of the US threat China faces and a radical technological change that weakens its retaliatory-only policy.
If Chinese leaders concluded that a future conflict with the US posed an existential threat rather than a limited war, they could look to nuclear weapons as insurance against a conventional defeat that eliminated the Chinese state. But such a change is by no means a given. Chinese strategists stress a number of reasons for the country’s restrained nuclear strategy, including the difficulty of controlling nuclear escalation and geography. China’s large size provides it with non-nuclear options for defeating a conventional military threatening its survival. An increase in US hostility wouldn’t remove these incentives for restraint.
A breakthrough in the development of counterforce technology is also unlikely to change China’s retaliatory nuclear posture, unless it were so radical that it made that posture unviable. Those changes would have to enable the US to credibly threaten to destroy most of China’s retaliatory force. It would also have to render China’s other options for ensuring a survivable nuclear force futile, such as expanding its arsenal size or shifting to a launch-on-warning alert status. Such radical technological change is unlikely, despite persistent US efforts to improve its counterforce capabilities. Regardless of whether either of these situations come to pass, China’s land-based missile force is unlikely to be displaced by its sea-based deterrent as the primary leg of its retaliatory nuclear capability, for four reasons………..
This piece was produced as part of the Indo-Pacific Strategy: Undersea Deterrence Project, undertaken by the ANU National Security College. This article is a shortened version of chapter 7, ‘The role of nuclear weapons in China’s national defence’, as published in the 2020 edited volume The future of the undersea deterrent: a global survey. Support for this project was provided by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-role-of-nuclear-weapons-in-chinas-national-defence/
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Government-owned Chinese company wants to build Sizewell nuclear plant
State-owned Chinese company bids to build second UK nuclear plant, SMH, By Latika Bourke May 27, 2020 —A Chinese state-owned company blacklisted in the United States has applied to build a second nuclear plant in Britain amid growing concern in the UK government’s ranks about Chinese investment in critical infrastructure.China General Nuclear Power Group’s application creates a new headache for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is already facing a backbench revolt over his approval of Chinese firm Huawei to supply Britain’s 5G networks.
The UK does not have an investment review process like Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board. However, Johnson has flagged a tightening of foreign investment rules in the wake of the pandemic and subsequent alarm about dependence on China. CGN, on Wednesday, submitted its planning application to build the Sizewell reactor in Suffolk, England with its French partner EDF. The project, estimated to cost at least £20 billion ($A37 billion) would be financed through private investment and construction would begin by the end of 2021 if approvals are given. CGN’s initial stake in the project would be 20 per cent compared to EDF’s 80 per cent. The same consortium was approved to build Britain’s Hinkley Point power station in 2016. The then prime minister Theresa May temporarily halted the project over concerns about Chinese investment in critical infrastructure but eventually gave the project the go-ahead. However, in August last year the Trump Administration placed CGN on the US entity list accusing it of acting contrary to the United States’ national security. The US has accused the Chinese company of stealing US nuclear technology for military use.
Sizewell’s approval process is expected to take at least 18 months at the same time as the government is being urged to tighten foreign investment rules. Former Conservative party leader and backbench MP Iain Duncan Smith told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age that China must not be allowed to make any further inroads into the UK’s critical infrastructure. “We simply cannot go further down the road of becoming more dependant on China,” he said…….. https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/state-owned-chinese-company-bids-to-build-second-uk-nuclear-plant-20200527-p54x37.html |
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Radioactive pollution at the Bugey nuclear power plant in France : EDF condemned! —
On May 22, 2020, the French court found EDF guilty of all the offences regarding radioactive pollution at the Bugey Nuclear Plant for which it was prosecuted and fined it a paltry and symbolic 3,000 euros. French anti-nuclear groups welcome this guilty condemnation (while acknowledging the symbolic nature of the fine) which finally reveals EDF […]
via Radioactive pollution at the Bugey nuclear power plant in France : EDF condemned! —
Court set-back to France’s EDF nuclear supply contracts
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France’s EDF suffers second setback over nuclear supply contracts, https://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL8N2D93OF PARIS, May 27 (Reuters) – A French court ruling on Wednesday ordered state-controlled utility EDF to accept Gazel Energy’s suspension of supply contracts under a force majeure clause prompted by the coronavirus pandemic.In the decision, seen by Reuters, the president of the Paris commercial court said conditions for force majeure in ARENH nuclear power contracts between the two companies were “evidently met”.
The verdict followed a similar ruling last week that ordered EDF to accept Total’s suspension of supply contracts. Total and Gazel Energy have sought to invoke the force majeure clause in contracts after the pandemic cut electricity demand by around 20% and pushed prices far below that specified in their existing agreements. (Reporting by Benjamin Mallet; writing by Matthieu Protard; editing by Jason Neely) |
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Trump administration to remove almost all sanctions relief to Iran
US clamps down on waivers tied to Iran’s nuclear cooperation, Matthew Lee, Ap Diplomatic Writer, The Wilton Bulletin, , Wednesday, May 27, 2020 WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration announced Wednesday it is ending nearly all of the last vestiges of U.S. sanctions relief provided under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he would revoke all but one of sanctions waivers covering civil nuclear cooperation. The waivers had allowed Russian, European and Chinese companies to continue to work on Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities without drawing American penalties…… Pompeo also imposed sanctions on two officials with Iran’s atomic energy organization who are involved in the development and production of centrifuges used to enrich uranium. The nuclear cooperation waivers were last renewed in late March and were due to expire at the end of the month. The revocations will give foreign companies 60 days to wind down their operations. Pompeo in March had opposed extending the waivers, which are among the few remaining components of the nuclear deal that the administration has not canceled. But officials said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had prevailed in an internal debate by arguing the coronavirus pandemic made eliminating the waivers unpalatable at a time when the administration is being criticized for refusing to ease sanctions to deal with the outbreak.
President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and has steadily reimposed U.S. sanctions on Iran that had been eased or lifted under its terms. The “civilian-nuclear cooperation” waivers allow foreign companies to do work at some of Iran’s declared nuclear sites without becoming subject to U.S. sanctions.
Deal supporters say the waivers give international experts a valuable window into Iran’s atomic program that might otherwise not exist. They also say some of the work, particularly at the Tehran reactor on nuclear isotopes that can be used in medicine, is humanitarian in nature………. https://www.wiltonbulletin.com/news/article/US-to-revoke-Iran-nuclear-cooperation-sanctions-15298267.php |
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Soaring costs of UK’s Hinkley Point C nuclear project, and other nuclear plans, while renewables get cheaper
UK’s National Trust says new Sizewell C nuclear power station poses threat to rare birds
National Trust. A new nuclear power station planned for the Suffolk coast
would threaten rare wildlife on protected heathland, according to the
National Trust.
submitted to the Planning Inspectorate tomorrow, to build twin reactors at
Sizewell in a project that the French state-controlled company says would
supply enough low carbon electricity for six million homes, or 7 per cent
of UK power.
that is one of Britain’s rarest habitats and is home to a breeding
population of endangered stone curlews. It has written to the leaders of
East Suffolk council and Suffolk county council to raise concerns about the
proposed £18 billion plant, which EDF would build with the Chinese nuclear
power company China General Nuclear (CGN). Stop Sizewell C, a local
campaign group, said the power stations “would be an expensive bridge to
nowhere: it will suck vital funds away from the technologies and projects
that are more capable of truly transforming our energy landscape”.
including the actors Bill Nighy and David Morrissey and the painter Maggi
Hambling, called on the government to step in to delay consideration of the
proposal until the coronavirus restrictions were lifted. Mr Nighy, who used
to live in Theberton with his former partner, the actress Diana Quick,
said: “It is beyond belief that EDF is pressing forward during these
terrible and uncertain times with a project so misguided, and which even
the government’s own advisers find deeply concerning.
will not fit to any degree in our new world, and this internationally
famous environment will be desecrated. This is a time to protect our
ecosystems, not shatter them.”
New Luxembourg law allows claims over nuclear accidents
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New Luxembourg law allows claims over nuclear accidents, Liability law passed with eyes on nearby Cattenom power plant, which reported more than 40 low-level incidents in 2018, CORDULA SCHNUER, 26.05.2020 Lawmakers passed a new law on Tuesday allowing residents to seek damages for nuclear power accidents, two weeks after the government launched a campaign against nuclear waste storage near its border.Fifty-six out of 60 parliament members voted in favour of the law that will allow victims of a nuclear accident living in Luxembourg up to 30 years to claim damages in one of the Grand Duchy’s courts. …. (subscribers only) https://luxtimes.lu/luxembourg/40796-new-luxembourg-law-allows-claims-over-nuclear-accidents
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Trump withdraws from Open Skies Treaty, throws more doubt on the future of the New START nuclear treaty
Open Skies withdrawal throws nuclear treaty into question, The Hill, BY REBECCA KHEEL – 05/25/20
President Trump‘s move this week to withdraw from an international pact meant to prevent accidental war has added to concerns about the fate of a separate arms control treaty with Russia. The Trump administration says formal talks with Moscow on extending the New START agreement, which places limits on deployed nuclear warheads, will start imminently. But after Trump announced Thursday he is withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty, arms control advocates raised fresh doubt about the future of New START, which is set to expire in February. Trump has shown deep skepticism toward international agreements — and those negotiated under the Obama administration in particular — but the administration insists it hasn’t given up on arms control….. he person Trump has tapped to negotiate an extension or replacement has made no guarantees, saying at a think tank event this past week he’s “not going to speculate” on whether the treaty will be extended “at this very early stage” and arguing the United States could win an arms race if need be. “We know how to win these races and we know how to spend the adversary into oblivion,” Marshall Billingslea, the special presidential envoy for arms control, said during a Hudson Institute webcast. “If we have to, we will, but we sure would like to avoid it.” The wrangling over the decades-old arms control regime comes as much of the world’s attention is focused instead on the coronavirus pandemic, which Democrats have accused Trump of using as a cover to withdraw from Open Skies with little attention. “The president should be focused on combating the coronavirus, not dragging America toward a costly and potentially devastating nuclear arms race,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) said in a statement on Trump’s move to pull out of Open Skies….. New START caps the number of deployed nuclear warheads the United States and Russia can have at 1,550 a piece, and it places limits on deploying weapons that can deliver the warheads and creates a verification regime that includes 18 on-site inspections per year. The agreement, which was negotiated by the Obama administration, is set to expire Feb. 5, 2021. But the treaty includes an option to extend it for another five years without needing the approval of either country’s legislature. Arms control advocates have sounded the alarm about the future of New START since last year after Trump withdrew from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, a pact that banned Russia and the United States from having ground-launched missiles of a certain range. Now, those warnings are intensifying. In a statement opposing Trump’s Open Skies withdrawal, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) also highlighted “the uncertainty surrounding its commitment to New START,” calling the combination of both “very alarming.” The Open Skies Treaty, which was first proposed by former President Eisenhower but didn’t enter into force until 2002, allows its more than 30 signatories, including the U.S. and Russia, to fly unarmed observation flights over each other. The intention is to provide transparency about military activities to avoid miscalculations that could lead to war. The Trump administration formally submitted its notice of intent to withdraw Friday, kicking off a six-month period before the withdrawal is final. ……. Russia, meanwhile, has previously offered to extend the treaty immediately without any preconditions and has also recently expressed a willingness to include some of the new weapons Washington is concerned about. But on the heels of the U.S. withdrawal from Open Skies, Ryabkov on Friday cast doubt on New START’s extension…… Derek Johnson, executive director of Global Zero, which advocates for the elimination of nuclear weapons, argued Trump’s move on Open Skies “does not bode well for New START.” “Rather than accept Russia’s offer to extend New START immediately and without preconditions, the Trump administration has proposed instead to negotiate a new trilateral agreement that includes China. Without extending New START, this proposal is either a fool’s errand or a deliberate farce,” Johnson said in a statement. “Getting China’s nuclear forces under control is a worthy goal, and sustained efforts are required to do that — but if New START goes the way of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces and Open Skies Treaties, the possibility of a bigger deal goes with it.” https://thehill.com/policy/defense/499240-open-skies-withdrawal-throws-nuclear-treaty-into-question |
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Federal report: 2019 Seattle radiation leak could have been disastrous, was a ‘near miss’
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In May 2019, radiation leaked from a device at Harborview Research and Training. At first called a “minor” breach, investigators warn it could have been much worse. K5 Chris Ingalls May 23, 2020, SEATTLE — A March report from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) says a radiation leak at the Harborview Research and Training Building one year ago was “preventable” and “a near miss to a significant event” that could have devastated the Seattle area.
“It is a wake-up call for all of us,” said Dr. Jacob Kamen, a radiation expert at Mount Sinai Health System in New York City, who reviewed the 175-page report at KING 5’s request. When radiation leaked from a medical device that a contractor was decommissioning on May 2, 2019 it was called a “minor” breach at the time. But the DOE investigation revealed a stunning lack of oversight by federal regulators and a federally licensed contractor who pushed “…mission completion over safe conduct.” Greg Wolf, a spokesman for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), which led the investigation, said the report was meant to be blunt so the same safety breakdowns would not happen again. “In this joint investigation NNSA took an unflinching look at the incident and concluded that it was preventable. It was largely a result of weak and partially implemented oversight processes,” Wolf said……. Video released by the DOE at KING 5’s request shows a serious mistake as the contractor uses an electric hand saw to cut into an aluminum tube that holds the cesium capsule. ……. the Seattle incident shows how much damage even a small amount of radioactive material can cause. “So just imagine if a tiny fraction can do such contamination in a building for a year – what would it do if it’s used by someone with malicious purposes in downtown Seattle? Just imagine how bad it would be,” Kamen said. Kamen says cesium could be used as a “weapon of mass disruption.” It would not necessarily result in a large body count, but it could contaminate city blocks and shut down the economic engine – much like coronavirus is doing now. Kamen is one of the leading voices calling for the disposal of medical devices – like irradiators – from low security facilities across America…… The Harborview Research and Training Building remains closed during a cleanup that is nearing $9 million. Research projects that could be salvaged and medical training have been transferred to other locations…… https://www.king5.com/article/news/investigations/harborview-training-research-radiation-leak/281-d91e61fe-4e3e-4d4d-b6a1-9993be5e93c5 |
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Sizewell nuclear planning application should be rejected until coronavirus lockdown restrictions are lifted
East Anglian Daily Times 24th May 2020, EDF Energy could be set this week to submit its final plans for a new £14billion nuclear power station on the Suffolk coast to the Government– despite widespread anger over the timing of the application. Community leaders across east Suffolk, along with many influential organisations and a host of celebrities have demanded that the power giant puts its plans for the new Sizewell C twin reactor on hold until after the coronavirus lockdown restrictions are lifted. They fear that current bans on public
meetings and people getting together even in small groups, plus the continued closure of libraries, will prevent many from seeing the full plans, debating them and giving their views. Central Suffolk and North Ipswich MP Dr Dan Poulter has written to Government ministers urging them to reject the planning application, known as the Development Consent Order, until after the Covid-19 crisis. News that the application is about to be made has left them deeply disappointed and saying it is the most inappropriate time to do so. https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/sizewell-c-dco-submission-wednesday-may-27-1-6668608 |
UK’s new nuclear plants – nearly all parts are sourced and/or funded from China and France
David Lowry’s Blog 24th May 2020, Letter from David Lowry to The Times: Your important revelation follows Johnson’s assertion to MPs on Wednesday that he is pursuing “measures
to protect our technological base.” The initiative, “Project Defend,”
is aimed at creating a new national resilience framework, which, The Times
reports, will address the current over-reliance on China for “medical and
other strategic imports.”
One such strategic import is civil nuclear
technology, on which UK is 100 per cent reliant on foreign suppliers for
the critical core reactor infrastructure, with the Hinkley C nuclear plant
under construction by French state generator, Electricite de France ( EdF)
using French technology, supported by French and Chinese capital
investment.
The next new nuclear plant in line for construction, at
Sizewell C in Suffolk, will have 20per cent of its costs paid for by
Chinese state company China General Nuclear.
The third new plant, at
Bradwell in Essex, is planned to entirely built using 100 per cent Chinese/
French designed technology, mostly imported, and backed by 62 per cent
Chinese funding. It would also be operated by a primarily Chinese technical
team. Only smaller parts for these new plants will be sourced from the UK
supply chain.
http://drdavidlowry.blogspot.com/2020/05/uk-china-nuclear-relations-need-reset.html
Iran tops the list of countries which accepted inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2019.
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‘The goal of opponents is to undermine confidence and cooperation between Tehran and IAEA’
JCPOA ensuring Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful, says Russia, Tehran Times May 25, 2020 “The purpose of #JCPOA is to restore confidence in exclusively peaceful nature of nuclear program of #Iran,” Ulyanov tweeted on Monday.“The deal fulfils this task,” he wrote. “No sign of military dimension was found. The goal of opponents is opposite- to undermine confidence and cooperation between Tehran and #IAEA.” In an earlier tweet on Sunday, the Russian envoy wrote, “Opponents of #JCPOA call for a ‘renewed coalition of pressure on Tehran’. In their article in Newsweek, published on Sunday, they try to instruct #IAEA what it ‘must’ and ‘should’ do. IAEA is independent. It’s Board of Governors and Secretariat will decide for themselves on how to proceed.” The Newsweek article that Ulyanov referred to, titled “The IAEA must report its latest findings on Iran’s nuclear weapons program”, called for a renewed coalition of pressure on Tehran in order to “address the regime’s nuclear program from its roots.” “World powers should make clear to Iran that it can no longer conceal its nuclear past and potentially its present—or swift international penalties will follow,” added the article written by Jacob Nagel, former acting national security advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Andrea Stricker, a research fellow at FDD. This is while Iran tops the list of countries which accepted inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2019. “Last year, the Islamic Republic received 21 percent of the entire visits that were made to various nuclear sites across the world by inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Organization (IAEA),” Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s ambassador to the Vienna-based international organizations, said earlier this month. He was citing the IAEA’s 129-page 2019 Safeguards Implementation Report. “The agency continued to verify and monitor the nuclear-related commitments of the Islamic Republic of Iran under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” read the 129-page report prepared for diplomats that accounts for resources spent on enforcing the landmark 2015 agreement among world powers…….. |
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Finland’s new nuclear reactor hit by valve leak
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Finland’s new nuclear reactor hit by valve leak, SwissInfo Ch MAY 25, 2020 HELSINKI (Reuters) – Finland’s long-delayed Olkiluoto 3 (OL3) nuclear reactor was hit by another setback after the nation’s safety watchdog reported valve problems in a component involved in the cooling process.
The reactor in western Finland was built by a consortium of France’s Areva and Germany’s Siemens and had been due to start producing electricity in November this year. “A leak was observed in the mechanical control valve of one of the pressuriser safety valves,” nuclear watchdog STUK said in a statement on Monday, adding that a full investigation is required before it can issue a nuclear fuel loading permit. “This is very serious,” STUK’s head of inspection, Iiro Paajanen, told Reuters, adding that the leak was in part of the reactor’s primary circuit and involved in its cooling. However, Areva said the issue is unlikely to cause further delay for the reactor, which was originally due to be completed in 2009. ….. Although Finland’s government issued an operating permit for the 1.6 gigawatt reactor in March 2019, OL3 needs final approval from STUK to load fuel and start production. “At present, the plant unit still has several outstanding issues before a loading permit can be issued,” STUK wrote in its January-April safety report. Reporting by Anne Kauranen and Tarmo Virki; Editing by Alexander Smith and David Goodman) https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/finland-s-new-nuclear-reactor-hit-by-valve-leak/45783642 |
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Canadian farming community not happy about taking on nuclear wastes
Teeswater area debating taking on ‘forever’ nuclear waste project, Scott Miller CTV News London 25 May 20, WINGHAM, ONT. — Anja van der Vlies is worried about the future of her 1200 dairy goat operation, if Canada’s most radioactive nuclear waste is buried a couple side roads away from her family’s farm.
“It’s fairly close to where we farm. If I just look at the radius of 10 kilometres from the proposed site, so much food is being prepared here. What’s going to happen to that?”she says.
Right next door, dairy farmer Ron Groen has posted signs around his property sharing his concerns about the proposed project, just north of Teeswater.
“The waste is going to be radioactive for a million years, so basically the waste will be eternally radioactive and our kids, grandkids, 33,000 generations after us living in and around town will have to worry about this problem,” he says.
About 1200 acres of farmland north of Teeswater has been optioned by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization to potentially build Canada’s first permanent nuclear waste facility.
Over five million used nuclear fuel bundles, would be buried 500 metres under these Bruce County farms, if the community agrees to it.
Darren Ireland is one the landowners, whose agreed to option his land for the project.
“For me, it’s about five generations. This area has struggled for years to keep things going. I look at this as something, that we could be looking at for five generations, that’s huge,” he says.
The mayor of the municipality of South Bruce, Robert Buckle, also sees upside to the project…….
Signs opposing the project starting going up around the area around March. A local group has formed to keep nuclear waste out of South Bruce’s soil.
“The sooner we can stop this, the better for our community,” says van der Vlies…….
Two communities remain in the running to house Canada’s most radioactive waste. Ignace, in Northern Ontario, and the Municipality of South Bruce, north of Teeswater. One site will selected, no later, than 2023. https://london.ctvnews.ca/teeswater-area-debating-taking-on-forever-nuclear-waste-project-1.4953737
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