Coronavirus: How to prevent a new nuclear arms race – and future pandemics

Coronavirus: How to prevent a new nuclear arms race – and future pandemics, The National, Gavin Esler, May 18, 2020

Difficult though it may be, the world’s powers should find ways to engage with rogue actors and thereby use investment, otherwise meant for nuclear conflict, to better prepare for global health threats………..now, as we focus on another threat to our lives, our economies and our world – coronavirus – it is curious to compare all these elaborate and expensive preparations for nuclear conflict with the lack of preparation in western countries and in the states of the old Soviet Union for the global pandemic we are now experiencing.

Despite numerous warnings from virologists and epidemiologists that Sars and Mers would eventually be followed by something much worse, the world is still playing catch up on coronavirus.

Perhaps even more surprising, the danger of nuclear war has been forgotten in the public imagination but it has not gone away. The threat to the Gulf region and beyond from Iran’s nuclear programme has not been eliminated. North Korea has not abandoned its own extremely provocative missile programme. And figures released in the past few days have shown continuing reinvestment round the world in nuclear arsenals.

In 2019, according to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) the nine countries with nuclear weapons spent a total of $72.9 billion on those weapons, a 10 per cent increase on 2018. Of that sum, around half – $35.4bn – was spent by the Trump administration.

ICAN, as its name suggests, wants nuclear weapons to be banned. It points out that so much money that could be spent on making the world healthier – and preparing for the certainty of future pandemics – is being spent on the unlikelihood of a nuclear conflict.

While this argument is attention-grabbing, it does not face up to hard reality. Just because we were unprepared for Covid-19 does not of itself mean nuclear states should simply destroy their stockpiles. Events in the sea lanes of the Gulf remind us of the old Cold War saying, that the price of peace is eternal vigilance. Nevertheless, the dislocation caused by the virus has made many of us re-think our personal priorities – family, friends, work and what makes us happy.

Perhaps the pandemic may also make governments reassess their own priorities. How many nuclear weapons are “enough”? Do we still believe in the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction – or MAD? Could we cut nuclear arsenals and put more effort into engagement with Iran and North Korea – difficult though that is – to try to prevent a new nuclear arms race?

This year’s US presidential election, combined with an economic shock and the biggest threat to world health for a century, provides an opportunity to re-think our priorities. If we can spend billions every year on bunkers, missiles and early warning systems in the hope of preventing global conflict – and not see that investment as wasted – can we switch more investment to preventing and treating global health threats? https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/coronavirus-how-to-prevent-a-new-nuclear-arms-race-and-future-pandemics-1.1021110

May 19, 2020 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | general

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