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Future global energy demand – report from Energy Transition Outlook

Energy Post 5th Sept 2017, Global energy demand will plateau from 2030, oil demand will flatten from
2020 to 2028 and go to a significant decline thereafter, the shift to
renewable energy will be quicker and more massive than most people realize,
yet the energy transition will not be difficult to finance.

These are some of the momentous conclusions of a set of major new reports from independent
energy consultancy DNV GL, under the name Energy Transition Outlook (ETO).
They are based on an independent model and output from hundreds of the
company’s experts who work in all sectors of the energy industry.

Energy Post spoke with project leader Sverre Alvik and lead author of the
renewable energy section of the report, Paul Gardner. They agree:
“changes are coming so fast they will surprise many people.” Alvik says
“we have a more optimistic view on the continued cost reduction potential
of solar and wind power and on improvements in energy intensity than many
of the reference scenarios used in the industry.” Alvik notes that “the
growing electrification in combination with the growth of renewables will
make the energy system more energy efficient, leading to important energy

“It is possible to build a secure system with a very high
level of renewable energy”, says Gardner. “But in our projections we
don’t quite get to 100%. We see quite a bit of ‘peaking’ gas
generation to go with renewables by 2050. We have a lot of wind, a lot of
solar and a lot of gas plant that spends a lot of time doing nothing. Even
when we include the backup costs for the gas-fired power, this still looks

Gardner does add there is one thing that the model does not
yet take into account, namely the effect that temporary surpluses of wind
and solar power will have on the economics of renewables. “We have not
yet shown what the impact is of that.” However, he says, “we will also
need to decarbonize heat, so it makes sense to store the surplus renewable
energy, for example to heat water with it or to convert it into gas, to be
used for heating. It is not yet clear what the most economic route will


September 11, 2017 - Posted by | 2 WORLD, ENERGY

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