Greatest nuclear risk is that of accidental war

What’s the number one military threat to the U.S.?
- Terrorism
- A deliberate nuclear attack
- Accidental nuclear war with Russia
Based on the recent political debates, you’d think it would be 1 or 2, but if you do the numbers, 3 wins hands down. Here’s why. Let’s compare the expected number of Americans killed during the year ahead, i.e., the number of Americans who’d get killed if the threat comes true times the probability of this happening during the coming year. For terrorism, one of the worst-case scenarios is a nuclear explosion in downtown New York killing millions of people. If we very pessimistically multiply this by a 10% chance of happening in 2016 (it’s probably much less likely), the expected number of casualties is a few hundred thousand per year.
For an all-out nuclear war with Russia, there’s a huge uncertainty in casualties. If nuclear winter is as severe as some modern forecasts and ruins global food production with freezing summers for years, then it’s plausible that over 5 billion of the 7.4 people on Earth will perish. If for some poorly understood reason there’s no nuclear winter at all, we can use a 1979 report by the U.S. Government from before nuclear winter was discovered, estimating that 28%-88% of Americans and 22%-50% of Soviets (150-450 million people with today’s populations) would die.
What’s the chance of this happening during the year ahead? Before answering, please check out this timeline of near-misses when it almost happened by mistake (highlights below). John F. Kennedy estimated the probability of the Cuban Missile Crisis escalating to nuclear war between 33% and 50%, and near-misses keep occurring regularly. Even if the risk of accidental nuclear war is as low at 1% per year, the expected deaths are 1.5-50 million people per year depending on your nuclear winter assumptions, way more than for terrorism. It’s likely that the chance of a deliberate unprovoked all-out nuclear attack by the U.S. or Russia is much smaller than 1%, given that this entails national suicide with over 7,000 nuclear weapons on the opposing side, many on hair-trigger alert.
A robust defense against terrorism and belligerent adversaries is clearly crucial, but U.S. military strategy can’t afford to be soft against the greatest threat of all: accidental nuclear war. When you hear about the U.S. plan to spend about $1 trillion modernizing and upgrading our nuclear arsenal, it at first sounds like a step in the right direction, reducing this risk. Unfortunately, looking at what the money is actually for reveals that it instead increases the risk. Please check out the disturbing incidents below: Which of these risks would be reduced by the planned more accurate missile targeting, improving first-strike incentive? By the new nuclear-tipped cruise missile? By the new gravity bomb? None! We’re spending money to make ourselves less safe by fueling a destabilizing arms race. We’ll be safer if those 1 trillion dollars were spent on non-nuclear parts of the U.S. military and on strengthening our society in other ways.
Top-10 list of near-misses
(Sources and more incidents here.)
10) January 1, 1961: H-bombs Dropped on North Carolina……..
9) October 24, 1962: Soviet Satellite Explodes During Cuban Missile Crisis………
8) January 25 1995: Norwegian Rocket Mistaken for ICBM…….
7) October 26, 1962: US F102A Fighters vs. Soviet MIG interceptors……
6) June 6, 1980: Faulty Chip Signals Soviet Attack……..
5) November 11, 1983: Soviets Misinterpret U.S. Nuclear War Games ……..
4) November 9, 1979: Simulated Soviet Attack Mistaken for Real…….
3) September 9, 1983: Soviet Union Detects Incoming Missiles……
2) October 27, 1962: Soviet Sub Captain Decides to Fire Nuclear Torpedo During Cuban Missile Crisis……..
1) The incidents that keep happening
These are only a sample of over two dozen close calls that we’ve catalogued in this timeline, and there are almost certainly more, since some have been revealed only decades later. Also, although most nuclear incidents were reported by U.S. sources, there’s no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. Moreover, near-misses keep happening. Although some argue that the superpowers should keep their current nuclear arsenals forever, simple mathematics shows that nuclear deterrence isn’t a viable long-term strategy unless the risk of accidental nuclear war can be reduced to zero: Even if the annual risk of global nuclear war is as low as 1%, we’ll probably have one within a century and almost certainly within a few hundred years. This future nuclear war would almost certainly take more lives than nuclear deterrence ever saved. If you want to reduce the risk of accidental nuclear war, please help raise awareness by sharing this timeline.
Increasing safety risks as nuclear reactors age
Nuclear power in the future: risks of a lifetime http://thebulletin.org/nuclear-power-future-risks-lifetime9185 DAVID LOCHBAUM, 26 Feb 16, A nuclear safety engineer,Lochbaum is one of the nation’s top independent experts on nuclear power.
The chance of one reactor experiencing a meltdown among a fleet of 100 reactors operating within the NRC’s safety goal for 40 years is nearly one in three (32.97 percent), or slightly higher than the risk from taking two turns on a six-chamber revolver during Russian roulette. The chance of a meltdown from that fleet operating for 60 years rises to 45.12 percent, or slightly higher than taking three Russian roulette turns. And the meltdown risk from the fleet operating for 80 years is 55.07 percent, or roughly the risk from taking four and one-half Russian roulette turns.
The bathtub curve. The NRC’s safety goal is a constant number for all reactors at every point during their operation. In reality, the risk over a reactor’s lifetime varies by what is called the bathtub curve due to its shape.
A reactor begins operating with relatively high risk due to material imperfections, assembly errors, worker mistakes, and other break-in problems. The risk levels off during mid-life and then rises late in life due to age-related degradation.
The US fleet of reactors is heading toward, if not already in, the wear-out portion of the bathtub curve where risk increases. Continue reading
France’s nuclear giant AREVA in deep financial mess – again!
Nuclear group Areva in the red again http://www.euronews.com/2016/02/26/nuclear-group-areva-in-the-red-again/ Nuclear power group Areva has reported a full-year net loss of 2.038 billion euros, its fifth consecutive annual loss.
The French state-controlled firm blamed extra costs at a reactor project in Finland for half of that.
The rest was due to restructuring expenses and other costs related to market conditions including reduced demand for uranium, nuclear fuel and services.
The group said it has enough funds for this year thanks to bank loans and will sell five billion euros worth of new shares by the first quarter of 2017 to stay afloat.
Areva is 87 percent state-owned and the French government has promised to subscribe to the new share issue.
‘uncontrollable radioactive flow’ from Indian Point nuclear station into the Hudson River
New York City’s nuclear power plant leaking ‘uncontrollable radioactive flow’ into Hudson River, http://inhabitat.com/new-york-citys-nuclear-power-plant-leaking-uncontrollable-radioactive-flow-into-hudson-river/ Inhabitat, by Lacy Cooke, 27 Feb 16 New York governor Andrew Cuomo recently called for an investigation after Indian Point, a nuclear power plant on the Hudson River, reported a leak of radioactive material flowing into the groundwater. Now, new samples taken from the local groundwater show that contamination levels are 80% higher than previous samples, prompting experts to claim this leak is spreading in “a disaster waiting to happen” and calling for the plant to be shut down completely. The Indian Point nuclear power plant is located just 25 miles north of New York City, and it’s a crucial source of of power for over 23 million people living in the greater NYC metropolitan region.
Indian Point has experienced other leaks in the past, and the investigation may influence whether the power plant continues to operate in the future.
Via NY Daily News, CBS News, EcoWatch
No straightforward answers to nuclear waste – except to stop making it
More money and some jobs would be offset by the stigma inevitably attached to radioactivity and by the risks involved, including accidents, radioactive leaks to underground water systems, and radioactive emissions to the air.
Recent accidents at nuclear waste dumps in Germany, New Mexico and France are deeply concerning. It is difficult to credibly predict cumulative environmental effects should a radioactive incident occur underground.
There are no straightforward answers. Given the dangers of radioactive waste, McKenna should invoke the precautionary principle which is enshrined in environmental laws worldwide. It states projects should not be undertaken if they might have serious adverse consequences, even if we don’t know whether these consequences will happen.
The next step would be to stop making more nuclear waste.
Dealing with nuclear waste is so difficult that phasing out nuclear power would be the best option http://www.lfpress.com/2016/02/26/dealing-with-nuclear-waste-is-so-difficult-that-phasing-out-nuclear-power-would-be-the-best-option Erika Simpson and Ian Fairlie, Special to Postmedia Network Environment Minister Catherine McKenna has dealt a setback to Ontario Power Generation’s plan for a nuclear waste burial site on the shores of Lake Huron. In a letter to interested parties last week,
McKenna delayed a decision on whether to approve the proposed deep geologic repository (DGR) for low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste and set a short April 18 deadline for OPG to furnish a timeframe within which it could provide an updated list of commitments to mitigate potential damage from the site.
Furthermore, she stated she will seek a further extension for the review from cabinet at a later date. We are probably in for long delays. Continue reading
As far away as Tokyo, highly radioactive black sand from Fukushima meltdowns is found
New Meltdown Byproduct Found Far From Fukushima Daiichi, Simply Info February 4th, 2016 Another type of material has been found by researchers that is tied to the meltdowns at Fukushima Daiichi. We have reported extensively over the years on the finding of “black stuff” around mainland Japan. This is a highly radioactive black sand like material that had gathered in gutters and roads as far away as Tokyo. Analysis of materials of that type has linked them to the meltdowns inside the reactors at Fukushima Daiichi. This new finding is also linked directly to the reactor meltdowns……..http://www.fukuleaks.org/web/?p=15283
Radioactive leak – but Japanese nuclear reactor still to restart
Japan nuclear reactor to resume operations despite radioactive leak. UPI.com By Elizabeth Shim TOKYO, Feb. 25 –– A Japanese nuclear power plant reactor that had shown signs of radioactive leaks is to resume operations.
Takahama nuclear power plant’s No. 4 reactor is scheduled to return online Friday, the Asahi Shimbun reported, following the return of two reactors at the Sendai plant in southern Japan, and the resumption of operations at the Takahama plant of reactors No. 1, 2 and 3. The No. 4 reactor was suspended in July 2011 after a regular inspection and is returning online after four years and seven months.
But prior to the announcement, the plant’s parent company Kansai Electric Power had said 36 quarts of contaminated water had been found in a structure next to the No. 4 reactor……….Reactors No. 1 and 2 at Takahama have been operating for more than 40 years. http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/02/25/Japan-nuclear-reactor-to-resume-operations-despite-radioactive-leak/6581456422419/
For the Nobel Peace Prize – an anti nuclear recommendation – Professor Roger Clark
Anti-nuclear Nobel nomination ‘exciting’ http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/297588/anti-nuclear-nobel-nod-‘exciting‘ Alexa Cook, 26 Feb 16 – alexa.cook@radionz.co.nz
A New Zealander working on a lawsuit to hold nuclear powers to account is excited about the team’s nomination for a Nobel Peace Prize. Professor Roger Clark is part of an international team representing the Republic of the Marshall Islands, which includes Bikini Atoll.
Mr Clark said the team of eight lawyers had done a lot of hard work, and he was thrilled to be part of it.
“It’s an exciting thing. I think it’s a really important case and, of course, the nomination is for former RMI [Republic of the Marshall Islands] Foreign Minister [Tony] De Brum and the whole team that is working on the case.
“What we are arguing about in March is the quite technical question of jurisdiction.”
Between 1946 and 1958, the United States detonated 60 nuclear weapons on the islands, the equivalent of 1.7 Hiroshima bombs detonated daily for a dozen years.
Professor Clark, who began his law studies at Victoria University, and is now based at Rutgers University in New Jersey, said the case would be hard to win but he thought they had a shot.
The legal system in the court was quite different to others and there had been a lot of hard work, particularly in the past few weeks, he said.
“Co-ordinating eight lawyers from Italy, the UK, the US and Holland is an interesting feat and the most complicated piece of litigation I’ve ever engaged in.”
It was a strange court to argue in, he said. “You have to give them a written copy of your oral argument beforehand and then you basically read the oral argument.
“It’s not like in New Zealand or Australian court where you can have an interchange with judges.”
A statement from Rutgers University said if the team’s arguments were successful it could “further the cause of total nuclear disarmament”.
The case, which is being taken against the United Kingdom, India and Pakistan, accuses nuclear-armed states of breaching obligations under international law to negotiate in good faith to rid the world of weapons of mass destruction.
“The hearings in March explore whether these three states have properly accepted the jurisdiction of the court over the cases,” the statement said.
“The United States has declined to accept the court’s jurisdiction over these issues.”
Professor Clark had previously presented a case at the International Court of Justice on behalf of Samoa in 1995 and 1996 to outlaw nuclear weapons.
Hearings on the Marshall Islands case begin in March.
The Nobel Peace Prize Laureates will be announced in October, with a ceremony in Oslo in December.
New Canadian govt still backs nuclear industry
She was speaking on behalf of Minister of Natural Resources Jim Carr yesterday.
The federal government has asked for more information about the planned underground nuclear waste storage site in Kincardine before giving final approval…….https://blackburnnews.com/midwestern-ontario/midwestern-ontario-news/2016/02/26/federal-support-confirmed-for-nuclear-industry/
New USA nuclear missile test

India about to get a nuclear-armed submarine
India close to first nuclear-armed submarine, SMH, February 27, 2016 N.C. BipindraNew Delhi: India is close to becoming the world’s sixth country to put a nuclear-armed attack submarine into operation, a move that would give it a leg up on neighbouring Pakistan and intensify a race for more underwater weapons in Asia.
The 6000-tonne Arihant, developed over the past three decades under a secret government program, is completing its final trials in the Bay of Bengal, according to a senior navy officer who declined to be identified because he’s not authorised to speak about the program. The vessel will be operated by the navy yet remain under the direct control of India’s Nuclear Command Authority headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The deployment would complete India’s nuclear triad, allowing it to deliver atomic weapons from land, sea and air. Only the US and Russia are considered full-fledged nuclear triad powers now, with China and India’s capabilities still largely untested……… http://www.smh.com.au/world/india-close-to-first-nucleararmed-submarine-20160226-gn54ja.html#
International Atomic Energy Agency reports that Iran is abiding by nuclear agreement
Iran Abiding by Nuclear Deal, UN Agency Says International Atomic Energy Agency’s report says Tehran keeping within limits of July agreement, WSJK By LAURENCE NORMAN Feb. 26, 2016 Iran has carried out most of its commitments under the nuclear agreement reached in July, the United Nations’ atomic agency said Friday, although for a time it exceeded the permitted amount of heavy water, which can be used to produce plutonium.
In its first report on Iran’s compliance deal since the agreement went into effect in mid-January, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran’s stock of heavy water had reached 130.9 tons, above the 130 tons limited permitted by the deal, the diplomats said.
However, the stockpile fell when Iran shipped 20 tons of heavy water out of the country on Wednesday. The IAEA verified the amount that was shipped, the report said.
One diplomat said the IAEA allows for a margin of error of 1 percentage point in such measurements, which means that Iran wasn’t technically over the limit…..
The nuclear deal saw Iran agree to scale back its nuclear activities and infrastructure in exchange for the lifting of tight, related sanctions imposed by the U.S., the European Union and the United Nations……. http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-abiding-by-nuclear-deal-un-agency-says-1456515699
Taipei readies for big anti-nuclear protest in March
Anti-nuclear protests are now planned for March 12 http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/local/taipei/2016/02/26/459275/Anti-nuclear-protests.htm TAIPEI--A national anti-nuclear alliance is scheduled to hold a protest march in Taipei March 12, demanding that the government make Taiwan nuclear-free by 2025 by decommissioning the nation’s three functioning nuclear plants and abolishing the mothballed fourth nuclear power plant in New Taipei’s Gongliao District.
They are also seeking the establishment of a mechanism that will allow public participation in policy-making regarding nuclear waste management.
Disastrous problem of nuclear waste just won’t go away
A disaster waiting to happen: nuclear waste and Lake Huron, Michigan Radio, By JACK LESSENBERRY , 25 Feb 16 Michigan has been so preoccupied with our own environmental disaster in Flint that we may have missed the announcement that Canada last week indefinitely delayed a decision about whether to bury low-level nuclear waste near Lake Huron……..
Had the conservative government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper been reelected last fall, the decision announced last week would almost certainly have been to bury the waste here. But Harper’s party lost in an unexpected landslide to Justin Trudeau’s more environmentally conscious liberals.
The outcome may be especially welcome in poor, battered Flint. The city hopes to eventually switch to a new water provider using Lake Huron, and the last thing anyone wants to worry about is radioactive waste leaching into the water, as unlikely as that may be.
But this also means we still don’t have an answer to what is to be done with 200,000 cubic feet of nuclear waste, currently stored in above-ground containers near Ontario’s immense Bruce nuclear generating station.
Even more important is finding a permanent home for all those highly radioactive, spent nuclear fuel rods in both our nations. Scientific American estimated seven years ago that the United States alone had produced 64,000 metric tons of those rods.
There’s more now, and any effort to establish a permanent burial site has been killed by narrow, NIMBY, not-in-my-backyard thinking, as it has in Canada.
This is a disaster waiting to happen – there’s tons of this stuff in “temporary,” above-ground storage everywhere from Monroe to Charlevoix, where an old nuclear plant was torn down nearly twenty years ago.
If the apparent decision to not bury low-level waste near Lake Huron makes us forget this far bigger problem, then it is no kind of victory at all. http://michiganradio.org/post/disaster-waiting-happen-nuclear-waste-and-lake-huron#stream/0
CPS Energy writes off $millions from Texas nuclear expansion project
CPS Energy writes off $391.4 million from South Texas Project nuclear expansion San Antonio Express News, 24 Feb 16 CPS Energy revealed Wednesday it has written off $391.4 million in costs associated with its partnership of the unbuilt — and highly criticized — Units 3 and 4 of the South Texas Project nuclear plant……..
Longtime opponents of the nuclear expansion said CPS Energy made the correct move to write off its costs so far.
“CPS’ decision shows that proposed nuclear reactors are worthless. There’s no market for their rate raising, high-cost, high-risk power,” Tom “Smitty” Smith of Public Citizen’s Texas office in Austin said in an email. “The proposed reactor price tag rose from $5.9 billion to $18.2 billion, even before a license was ever issued. Delays, construction problems and lawsuits are the norm for nuclear reactors. They cost so much that even with all the federal subsidies, no bank will loan money to build them. CPS did the smart thing and wrote off this worthless investment.”
Controversy erupted in 2009 over the expansion project, which already had received intense opposition over concerns about storage of waste fuel and estimated cost of $13 billion.
It was revealed that a new cost estimate from partner Toshiba Inc. — $4 million higher than the previous one — had been withheld by utility executives from the CPS board and City Council while additional financing was under consideration……….
“The NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) can license these reactors, but they won’t get built,” added Karen Hadden of the Sustainable Energy and Economic Development Coalition. “Renewable energy is cheaper these days and much safer. Nuclear power creates radioactive waste that remains deadly for hundreds of thousands of years.”…….. http://www.expressnews.com/business/local/article/CPS-Energy-writes-off-391-4-million-from-South-6852804.php
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