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RBC Capital Markets Analysts agree. Only they think it will be a much longer road than most.

Analysts Fraser Phillips and Patrick Morton on Thursday sent shudders through the industry as they took an axe to their uranium price forecasts. They cut their 2014 spot price forecast to US$31.50 a pound, down from US$45. And it got worse from there. The 2015 target was cut to US$40 (from US$60), and targets for the 2016 to 2018 period fell to just US$40-US$45 from US$75-US$80. Not surprisingly, shares of every significant uranium company (including Cameco Corp., Paladin Energy Ltd. and Denison Mines Corp.) tumbled on Thursday.

The analysts believe the uranium market is going to be in surplus until 2021, which is far longer than most insiders expect. They blame continuing oversupply in the market.

“Active annual supply exceeds demand by a significant margin, and on top of that, significant excess inventories have been and continue to be accumulated post the Fukushima disaster, particularly in Japan,” they said in a note. It is no secret the uranium market is under pressure. The sector is still reeling from the Fukushima disaster in 2011, and approvals for Japanese reactor restarts are taking longer than expected. The spot uranium price recently fell below US$30 a pound for the first time since 2005…….

The RBC analysts pointed out that mine production has continued to grow during the past two years despite low prices, and that the Japanese restart process has stalled. They believe only four Japanese reactors will restart this year, and just 28 (out of 50) will be online by 2018…….http://business.financialpost.com/2014/06/05/rbc-annihilates-uranium-price-outlook/