nuclear-news

Study on IAEA website: Core meltdown risk now around 1,000% higher because of Fukushima — Engineer: Nuclear disaster “a certainty” over next 30 years in Europe

Published: November 2nd, 2013 at 5:49 pm ET
By ENENews

http://enenews.com/study-iaea-website-core-meltdown-risk-around-1000-higher-because-fukushima-engineer-nuclear-disaster-certainty-next-30-years-europe

Title: How did Fukushima-Dai-ichi core meltdown change the probability of nuclear accidents?
Source: Available from the INIS Liaison Officer for France
Authors: Escobar Rangel, Lina; Leveque, Francois
Date: October 2012

How to predict the probability of a nuclear accident using past observations? What increase in probability the Fukushima Dai-ichi event does entail? […] We find an increase in the risk of a core meltdown accident for the next year in the world by a factor of ten owing to the new major accident that took place in Japan in 2011. […]

Two months after the fukushima Dai ichi meltdown, a French newspaper published an article coauthored by a French engineer and an economist1. They both argued that the risk of a nuclear accident in Europe in the next thirty years is not unlikely but on the contrary, it is a certainty. They claimed that in France the risk is near to 50% and more than 100% in Europe. […]

The Fukushima Dai-ichi results in a huge increase in the probability of an accident. […]

The Fukushima Dai-ichi effect of
[delta] 43 could appear as not realistic. In fact, at first glance the triple meltdown seems very specific and caused by a series of exceptional events. For most observers, however, the Fuskushima Dai-ichi accident is not a black swan. […] It has also been ignored by the nuclear safety agency NISA because as well-demonstrated now the Nippon agency was captured by the nuclear operators (Gundersen (2012)). [Gundersen, A. (2012), The echo chamber: Regulatory capture and the fukushima daiichi disaster, Technical report]

[…] Unfortunately, it is likely that several NPPs in the world have been built in hazardous areas, have not been retrofitted to take into account better information on natural risks collected after their construction, and are under-regulated by a non-independent and poorly equipped safety agency as NISA. […]  a massive release of radioactive elements from a nuclear power plant into the environment is no longer a risk limited to a few unstable countries where scientific knowledge and technological capabilities are still scarce. […]

View the study here

November 2, 2013 - Posted by arclight2011part2 | Uncategorized