nuclear-news

   The government’s pretence that there is a bidding war between nuclear power providers is also unconvincing. Companies from the US, South Korea and Russia have given up and a joint French-Chinese bid is the only game in town.

 Nuclear drive more about foreign policy than energy, ANTHONY BUTLER:  http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=171008  State’s campaign to win public support for proposed nuclear power programme hampered by logic and chronology 2012/05/04  THE government’s belated campaign to win public support for its proposed nuclear power programme has been hampered by logic and chronology.

Spokesmen now claim that a 9600MW six-plant nuclear programme was prescribed by the government’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2), which was needlessly approved by the Cabinet less than a week after last year’s Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. Yet the project and uranium enrichment programme were first announced by then minerals and energy minister Buyelwa Sonjica in August 2006.

The same time-travel conundrum afflicts the government’s belated discovery that “uranium beneficiation” is a key factor favouring the programme. Deputy Science Minister Derek Hanekom has observed that IRP2’s assumptions were anyhow dated even before the plan was approved. The capital costs of renewable energy sources are falling rapidly as global production of renewables is being scaled up. Many of the world’s largest economies have abandoned nuclear reactor plans and calculate that they can meet carbon commitments using renewable sources alone.

South Africa’s nuclear programme has been driven by an African National Congress (ANC) that sees the country as a “nuclear power”. It was shaped by former minister and arms-deal enthusiast Alec “Offsets” Erwin. It is therefore unsurprising to find Department of Energy director-general Nelisiwe Magubane claiming that “cheap energy”, localisation and job creation might be worth “up to R3-trillion” — all for a programme costing “R750bn at most”.

The government’s pretence that there is a bidding war between nuclear power providers is also unconvincing. Companies from the US, South Korea and Russia have given up and a joint French-Chinese bid is the only game in town. The French have a long history in the local industry and won what became an abortive first tender in 2008. National champion Areva faces a slump in its European markets now that Germany, Switzerland, Italy and Belgium have decided against future investments.

Given falling natural gas prices, limited political pressure for carbon taxes and cheaper renewables, the French nuclear industry faces a crisis.

South Africa’s programme could be influenced by how French citizens vote in Sunday’s presidential election runoff. President Nicolas Sarkozy supports nuclear power. Socialist challenger Francois Hollande wishes to reduce the role of nuclear from today’s 75% of French electricity generation to about 50% over the next 15 years. The French nuclear energy industry has already been hounding developing countries to sign up before the technological and other implications of the Fukushima disaster become clear. Should Hollande win, a beleaguered French nuclear sector will move into overdrive to secure a South African deal.

France’s new co-bidder, China, has benefited technologically from partnerships with the French industry. Guangdong Nuclear Power Group, which will probably be involved in this programme, has recently built stations under license from Areva.

If resource-rich developing countries decide to accumulate long-term indebtedness to Chinese state-owned banks, why would the Chinese Communist Party seek to dissuade them? The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s stake in Standard Bank provides an instrument for channelling funds to this programme, as well as a local lobbyist in its favour. Given that the majority of planned global plants are located in China, India, Russia and South Africa, the proposed Brics development bank could become another nuclear industry financing mechanism.

None of this has very much to do with the environment, industrial policy or South Africa’s energy needs. Even uranium “beneficiation”, some cynics suspect, is driven by a desire to show off South Africa’s potential enrichment capabilities. The ANC’s foreign policy tail seems to be wagging its energy security dog.