nuclear-news

A sober look at policy on Iran’s nuclear programme

IAEA inspections and sanctions may not be a perfect strategy, but given the alternatives, they seem to be the best horse in this race.

Iran: 1, IAEA:   Center for Strategic and International Studies, By Kevin Kallmyer, Sep 8, 2010, In a recent IAEA report, the IAEA disclosed that the agency does not have the confidence to declare Iran’s nuclear program exclusively peaceful.The report states that Iran has not provided sufficient cooperation to permit the agency to fulfill its mission and confirm that Iran’s program is peaceful, and is the IAEA’s third report in a row to draw this conclusion. The IAEA report discussed multiple areas of Iranian defiance, which can be grouped into five categories…….
Regardless of Iran’s technical compliance with its Safeguard Agreement, the IAEA report describes a general theme of Iranian foot-dragging. Even if Iran had a valid point that some of the IAEA requests fell outside of their authority, and they are not in fact building a nuclear weapon, the discernable trend is that Iran seeks to limit IAEA authority at every point possible. The repeated attempt to bar inspections and decrease IAEA authority makes it difficult for countries to have confidence in Iran’s claim that they are only developing a peaceful nuclear program…..
IAEA reports seem to confirm the United States’ worst fear: that the U.S. strategy is failing to deter Iranian proliferation. The U.S. strategy to pressure Iran with sanctions has not appeared to change Iranian motivations to develop the bomb. This failure is most likely the result of multiple factors. Pressure has strengthened the case of hardliners that developing nuclear weapons is necessary to defend Iran against Western aggression, while liberal forces have failed to gain substantial influence in Iranian politics. Iran has also had the help of allies to maintain trade and its economy despite sanctions, allowing political elites to avoid the full force of pressure……
However, sanction’s current failure does not necessarily lead to the conclusion that all is lost and that the Obama administration’s policy is wrong……
IAEA inspections and sanctions may not be a perfect strategy, but given the alternatives, they seem to be the best horse in this race.

Iran: 1, IAEA: 0 | Center for Strategic and International Studies

September 9, 2010 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | antinuclear, nuclear, nuclear spin, nuclear weapons