USA’s nuclear power industry in its economic death throes

These are the facts: Renewables have taken the lead in new power generation in America, comprising nearly half of all new generating capacity installed in the United States in 2012. In the first quarter of this year, nearly half the new capacity installed was solar. With its poor economics, enormous complexity, overly-large capital requirements, too-long lead times, and overall risk, US nuclear power is headed for contraction, not resurgence. Ultimately, I think the same will be true globally

The real reason to fight nuclear power has nothing to do with health risks, Quartz, By Chris Nelder, 17 June 13“……Nuclear’s long goodbye The simple fact is that, at least in the US, the nuclear industry is dying a slow death. The announced closure of four major facilities in 2013 alone amount to 4,246 megawatts of nuclear capacity—enough to power 2.7 million homes for a year—that are being retired.

Even while the nuclear industry is able to externalize its costs for insurance (which are federally limited), loan guarantees (which are federally backstopped), decommissioning (which is pushed onto ratepayers) and waste handling (which is pushed onto taxpayers), it still lost. If it had to stand on its own and pay its full insurance costs like every other energy source, we could never build another nuclear plant in America, because no private investors would be willing to take that kind of risk. It’s hard to imagine how the economics could be more tilted in nuclear’s favor (although I’m sure its proponents have ideas on that).

The reason nuclear is dying is economics, not tribalism, as Shellenberger and Nordhaus claim. The UCS study found that if the EIA’s National Energy Modeling System were updated using 2009 utility cost estimates for building new nuclear plants, instead of EIA’s old over-optimistic projections, nuclear plants would not be the most economical way to add new capacity. The economics have shifted even farther away from nuclear since then.

Meanwhile, outside the fantasy world inhabited by the BTI, the real energy market has moved on. The US installed 13,200 megawatts of wind capacity in 2012,according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

In 2010, the combined generation of the four nuclear plants now headed for retirement, would have been just over 30 million MWh if all four were operating normally (one plant, the Crystal River plant in Florida, was not). Using a weighted average of the EIA’s onshore and offshore capacity factors for wind (36%), the wind capacity installed in the US last year will generate 41.6 million MWh per year.

In other words, the US installed enough wind last year to replace 138% of the nuclear generation shuttered this year.

The US nuclear fleet is shrinking, while wind and solar are posting double-digit, exponential growth rates. What part of this do Shellenberger and Nordhaus not understand?…….

http://qz.com/94817/the-real-reason-to-fight-nuclear-power-has-nothing-to-do-with-health-risks/