Iran and USA – new approach needed

Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Broadcast: 26/02/2009

Reporter: Kerry O’Brien

……….ROBERT BAER:………………………President Obama is moving tentatively to open up serious dialogue with Iran, but that process could be a long, slow one. And if further evidence emerges that Iran is moving closer to nuclear weapons capacity, he would come under pressure to act pre-emptively…………………………….what’s happened is that the United States looks at the Middle East through Israel. And the Arabs and the Persians look at Israel as an outpost of the United States of the West. We’ve lost this anti-colonial game and the Iranians have won it. They’ve simply portrayed themselves as not as religious fanatics, but as an anti-colonial power. And everybody in the Middle East, you look at the polls across the board, even countries like Morocco, which are entirely Sunni, look to Tehran as the great anti-imperial power. We’ve lost the ideological war. You know, that doesn’t mean we lost the war entirely, but we’ve lost the ideological war, but by bringing Iran to the negotiating table; by implementing Resolution 242; closing the settlements in the West Bank; getting the Israelis to a position where they don’t have to feel they have to bomb Gaza; will normalise relations in the Middle East…………. It’s a military dictatorship and any military conflict can be negotiated. Ideological ones cannot be…………………………….The nuclear weapons is a red herring in this conflict with Iran because the Iranians are not going to build a bomb now. I’m almost convinced of it. In as much as you can predict anything, they are not going to build and test a bomb now. It causes them too much problems – too many problems – they’ve gained too much. There would be international embargo, sanctions and on and on. Even Russia and China would back away. Nuclear bomb – they don’t need one right now, it’s just a way to get us to the negotiating table. But the major point is they’re not going to commit suicide. If the Iranians wanted to commit suicide, they could have done it long ago in the Gulf. Started a war with the United States. And they’re not going to start one with Israel either.

What the coming dialogue between US-Iran holds Saudi Gazette Patrick Seale 26 February 2009  A  WASHINGTON consensus is emerging about the necessity of talking to Iran – sooner rather than later. President Barack Obama has spoken of reaching out to the Islamic Republic, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has responded by expressing a readiness to talk. He has even written a letter to Obama congratulating him on his election. This must surely be taken as a signal of a coming thaw.Both sides recognize that, after 30 years of stubborn mutual hostility, the time for dialogue has arrived. It may still be premature to expect an early restoration of diplomatic relations, but the opening of a US-staffed interests section in Tehran seems a likely prospect…………………..Several developments seem to be driving the US and Iran to the negotiating table. Of these, probably the most important is Iran’s progress in enriching uranium. Although it denies any intention to manufacture nuclear weapons, Iran’s scientific and technological achievement suggests that it is on the ‘threshold’ of becoming a nuclear power. But it is by no means certain that it will choose to take that extra step.
America’s interest lies in persuading Iran to go no further, while Iran’s interest is to go just far enough to deter any would-be attacker, but not so far as to arouse the fears of its neighbors, and incur the problems and responsibilities of actually becoming a nuclear power.