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Iran will expel U.N. nuclear inspectors unless sanctions are lifted

Iran will expel U.N. nuclear inspectors unless sanctions are lifted: lawmaker

By Reuters Staff DUBAI (Reuters) 10 Jan 21, – Iran will expel United Nations nuclear watchdog inspectors unless U.S. sanctions are lifted by a Feb. 21 deadline set by the hardline-dominated parliament, a lawmaker said on Saturday.

Parliament passed a law in November that obliges the government to halt inspections of its nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency and step up uranium enrichment beyond the limit set under Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal if sanctions are not eased.

Iran’s Guardian Council watchdog body approved the law on Dec. 2 and the government has said it will implement it….

……….https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-nuclear/iran-will-expel-un-nuclear-inspectors-unless-sanctions-are-lifted-lawmaker-idUSKBN29E0FQ

January 10, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

The risk of USA – Iran military showdown before Trump leaves office

Are the US and Iran headed for a military showdown before Trump leaves office? The Conversation Clive Williams
Campus visitor, ANU Centre for Military and Security Law, Australian National University, January 4, 2021 Tensions are running high in the Middle East in the waning days of the Trump administration.

Over the weekend, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, claimed Israeli agents were planning to attack US forces in Iraq to provide US President Donald Trump with a pretext for striking Iran.

Just ahead of the one-year anniversary of the US assassination of Iran’s charismatic General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also warned his country would respond forcefully to any provocations.

Today, we have no problem, concern or apprehension toward encountering any powers. We will give our final words to our enemies on the battlefield.

Israeli military leaders are likewise preparing for potential Iranian retaliation over the November assassination of senior Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh — an act Tehran blames on the Jewish state.

Both the US and Israel have reportedly deployed submarines to the Persian Gulf in recent days, while the US has flown nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to the region in a show of force.

And in another worrying sign, the acting US defence secretary, Christopher Miller, announced over the weekend the US would not withdraw the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its strike group from the Middle East — a swift reversal from the Pentagon’s earlier decision to send the ship home.

Israel’s priorities under a new US administration

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would like nothing more than action by Iran that would draw in US forces before Trump leaves office this month and President-elect Joe Biden takes over. It would not only give him the opportunity to become a tough wartime leader, but also help to distract the media from his corruption charges.

Any American military response against Iran would also make it much more difficult for Biden to establish a working relationship with Iran and potentially resurrect the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

It’s likely in any case the Biden administration will have less interest in getting much involved in the Middle East — this is not high on the list of priorities for the incoming administration. However, a restoration of the Iranian nuclear agreement in return for the lifting of US sanctions would be welcomed by Washington’s European allies.

This suggests Israel could be left to run its own agenda in the Middle East during the Biden administration.

Israel sees Iran as its major ongoing security threat because of its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian militants in Gaza.

One of Israel’s key strategic policies is also to prevent Iran from ever becoming a nuclear weapon state. Israel is the only nuclear weapon power in the Middle East and is determined to keep it that way.

While Iran claims its nuclear program is only intended for peaceful purposes, Tehran probably believes realistically (like North Korea) that its national security can only be safeguarded by possession of a nuclear weapon.

In recent days, Tehran announced it would begin enriching uranium to 20% as quickly as possible, exceeding the limits agreed to in the 2015 nuclear deal.

This is a significant step and could prompt an Israeli strike on Iran’s underground Fordo nuclear facility. Jerusalem contemplated doing so nearly a decade ago when Iran previously began enriching uranium to 20%.

How the Iran nuclear deal fell apart……….. https://theconversation.com/are-the-us-and-iran-headed-for-a-military-showdown-before-trump-leaves-office-152606

January 7, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Restoring Iran nuclear deal is good for Israel

Restoring Iran nuclear deal is good for Israel – opinion, Economic pressure is of no value if it is not accompanied by a diplomatic route that will allow Iranian leaders to justify a policy change. Jerusalem Post By NADAV TAMIR JANUARY 6, 2021

The Biden administration, to be sworn in on January 20, will have to deal with many urgent issues at home and abroad and to repair the rubble left behind by the Trump administration. For Israel, despite the existential importance of reaching a two-state solution with the Palestinians and preventing a binational catastrophe, there is no more urgent priority at the moment than a return to the 2015 nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between the world powers (P5 +1) and Iran. This will immediately stop the prospect of Iranian nuclear breakout, which has become a very real possibility since the Trump administration’s abandonment of the agreement……..

Contrary to what the detractors say, the Biden administration has no intention of allowing Iran to reach military nuclear capabilities. The Biden approach is that in order to prevent Iran from achieving military nuclear capabilities, diplomacy is needed alongside economic pressure. To this end, it is necessary to renew the international coalition vis-à-vis Iran and its expansion, and it is necessary to strengthen the pragmatic side in Iranian regime that favor the good of the Iranian economy over efforts to achieve Shiite hegemony in the Middle East. ……

The Israeli government needs to learn from the mistakes of its policies vis-à-vis the Obama administration. We must be a player that contributes to the international effort to stop Iran and refrain from pursuing a unilateral and confrontational policy toward the US and other powers. The Israeli confrontation with the Obama administration meant we were not part of the process of building the agreement, turning Israel into a divisive issue in American politics and tearing up the Jewish community, which largely supported Obama’s approach.

In order to stop Iran and to restore Israeli relations with the US and with the American Jewish community, the Israeli government must cooperate with the Biden government in its efforts to return to diplomacy with Iran from its first day in office, on January 20, not a moment too soon.

The writer is a former diplomat and foreign policy adviser to president Shimon Peres, a current senior adviser for international affairs at the Peres Center for Peace and Innovation, and a member of the board of the Mitvim regional foreign policy think tank and the steering committee of the Geneva Initiative. He served at the Israeli Embassy in Washington and as consul general to New England. https://www.jpost.com/opinion/restoring-iran-nuclear-deal-is-good-for-israel-opinion-654501

January 7, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, Israel, politics international | Leave a comment

Biden Wants US Back in Iran Nuclear Deal (Video)

Biden Wants US Back in Iran Nuclear Deal (Video) https://www.voanews.com/episode/biden-wants-us-back-iran-nuclear-deal-4531861
January 03, 2021, President-elect Joe Biden says he wants the United States to return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal — if Tehran also resumes compliance. VOA’s Diplomatic Correspondent Cindy Saine reports from Washington that experts say they expect a shift away from the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign of crippling economic sanctions on Iran, but a U.S. return to the nuclear deal will not be easy.

January 4, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

USA show of force -flying nuclear bombers over Iran

US flying nuclear bombers over Iran to deter NYE attack, 9 news, By CNN Dec 31, 2020 The US have flown nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to the Middle East in the latest show of force meant to deter Iran, as defense officials remain divided over the risk posed by the regime and the Iraq-based militias it supports.

Pentagon officials say the military muscle-flexing is meant to warn Tehran off attacking American interests or personnel in the days surrounding the January 3 anniversary of the Trump administration’s assassination of the powerful Iranian leader General Qasem Soleimani.

At the same time, acting Secretary of Defence Christopher Miller decided yesterday against a push to extend the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz’s deployment to the Persian Gulf, sending it out of the region in an explicit de-escalation signal to Iran, according to a senior defense official.

The conflicting messages could reflect divisions within the Pentagon, where a second senior defence official tells CNN that the current threat level from Iran is the most concerning they have seen since Soleimani’s death.

Officials cite new intelligence that Iran and allied militias in Iraq may be plotting attacks against US forces in the Middle East.

For example, Iran has been moving short range ballistic missiles into Iraq, prompting the US to deploy additional military assets to the region.

Yet others in the Pentagon contend that the threat is being exaggerated, with the first senior defence official – who is directly involved in discussions – telling CNN that there is “not a single piece of corroborating intel” suggesting an attack by Iran may be imminent.

US President Donald Trump has fuelled some of the uncertainty, reportedly asking in a mid-November meeting for military options he could use against Iran.

He then threatened Iran after a December 21 attack on the US embassy in Baghdad that senior US officials, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, attributed to Iraqi militias affiliated with Tehran.

“Our embassy in Baghdad got hit Sunday by several rockets,” Mr Trump tweeted from aboard Air Force One after a December 23 White House meeting on Iranian threats.

“Three rockets failed to launch. Guess where they were from: IRAN.”

Mr Trump then offered “some friendly health advice to Iran: If one American is killed, I will hold Iran responsible. Think it over.”

……… The B-52 flight was the second time this month the Pentagon has sent the nuclear-capable bombers to the region. It follows the Navy’s rare December 21 announcement that it had sent a nuclear-powered submarine through the Persian Gulf, accompanied by guided-missile cruisers. ,,,,,,,https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-us-flying-nuclear-bombers-over-iran-to-deter-nye-attack/f02018ea-2b8f-4d07-9941-e1df3a0a0f4c

January 2, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, USA, weapons and war | 1 Comment

Iran nuclear deal: ‘Heated rhetoric and the heightened risk of miscalculation’ widen differences

Iran nuclear deal: ‘Heated rhetoric and the heightened risk of miscalculation’ widen differences, UN News 23 Dec 20, Although the landmark Iran nuclear deal could improve regional stability if fully implemented, increased tensions have highlighted the risks posed by escalation, the UN’s Political and Peacebuilding Affairs chief told the Security Council on Tuesday.

Under-Secretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo was speaking during a virtual meeting on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the July 2015 accord that set out rules for monitoring Iran’s nuclear programme and a pathway to easing sanctions.

The JCPOA was signed by Iran alongside the European Union and five permanent members of the Security Council: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. However, Washington withdrew in May 2018.

Ms. DiCarlo noted that recent years have been characterized by “attacks on critical infrastructure, heated rhetoric and heightened risk of miscalculation.

“Such actions deepen the differences related to the Plan and render efforts to address other regional conflicts more difficult”, she said. “We call on all concerned to avoid any actions that may result in further escalation of tensions.”

Withdrawal and reduced commitments

Last August, the US announced it would reinstate sanctions lifted following the deal.

Ms. DiCarlo described the move as contrary to the goals of the JCPOA and Security Council Resolution 2231 on its implementation.

“We regret the steps taken by the United States when it withdrew from the Plan, as well as the steps taken by Iran to reduce some of its nuclear-related commitments under the Plan”, she told ambassadors.

The JCPOA guarantees that the UN-backed international nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will have regular access to sites in Iran and information about its nuclear programme.

While the country had complied with some provisions, the IAEA reported it had surpassed stipulated limits for enriched uranium, a critical component in nuclear power generation.

“Iran has stated its intention to remain in the Plan, and that the steps that they have taken are reversible. It is essential that Iran refrains from further steps to reduce its commitments and returns to full implementation of the Plan”, she said. …………..

Iran nuclear deal: a summary

What is the Iran nuclear deal? The 2015 “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (JCPOA), sets out rules for monitoring Iran’s nuclear programme, and paves the way for the lifting of UN sanctions.
Which countries are involved? Iran, the five members of the Security Council (China, France, Russia, UK, US), plus Germany, together with the European Union.
What is the UN’s involvement? A UN Security Council resolution to ensure the enforcement of the JCPOA, and guarantee that the UN’s atomic energy agency, the IAEA, continues to have regular access to and more information on Iran’s nuclear programme, was adopted in 2015.
Why is the deal at risk? The current US Administration pulled out of the deal in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions. In July 2019, Iran reportedly breached its uranium stockpile limit, and announced its intention to continue enriching uranium, posing a more serious proliferation risk. https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/12/1080592

December 24, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

US Navy nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine and 2 warships sail through Strait of Hormuz, (Persian Gulf-Gulf of Oman)

US Navy sails nuclear submarine through Strait of Hormuz, By Ryan Browne and Barbara Starr, CNN December 21, 2020 The US Navy nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine USS Georgia transited the Strait of Hormuz Monday accompanied by two additional American warships, the Navy said Monday in a rare public announcement of a nuclear submarine’s movements.

“The nuclear-power Ohio-class guided-missile submarine USS Georgia (SSGN 729), along with the guided-missile cruisers USS Port Royal (CG 73) and USS Philippine Sea (CG 58), transited the Strait of Hormuz entering the Arabian Gulf, Dec. 21,” the Navy said in a statement using an alternative name for the Persian Gulf.

The vessels’ entrance into the area comes amid heightened tensions with Iran, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blaming Iranian backed militias for a rocket attack on the US Embassy compound in Baghdad, on Sunday.

Some US officials have expressed concern that Iran may use the anniversary of the killing of General Qasem Solemani to carry out a strike on the US.

The US Navy rarely discusses the movement of its submarines, but Monday’s announcement also included details on the vessel’s capabilities, including its “ability to carry up to 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles.”……………… https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/21/politics/us-nuclear-sub-hormuz/index.html

December 22, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

World powers renew commitment to preserve Iran nuclear deal

World powers renew commitment to preserve Iran nuclear deal
Remaining parties to landmark 2015 deal reaffirm commitment as Iran’s nuclear programme’s chief slams a Parliament bill. Aljazeera, Maziar Motamedi, 21 Dec 2020, Tehran, Iran – The remaining parties to a landmark nuclear deal they signed with Iran in 2015 have renewed their commitment to preserving the accord in an online meeting.

The foreign ministers of Iran, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, China and Russia participated in a two-hour meeting chaired by the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, on Monday.

In a tweet before the meeting, Borrell said the aim is to “re-emphasise our commitment to preserve” the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the nuclear deal is formally known.

A joint statement following the meeting said the ministers “discussed that full and effective implementation of the JCPOA by all remains crucial and discussed the need to address ongoing implementation challenges, including on nuclear non-proliferation and sanctions lifting commitments”.

The foreign ministers recognised the deal, enshrined in Resolution 2231 of the United Nations Security Council, as a “key element” in the global non-proliferation regime and a diplomatic achievement contributing to regional and international peace……..

US President-elect Joe Biden has promised to bring his country back into the deal and lift sanctions but has hinted that more negotiations are needed on Iran’s missiles programme and regional influence.

The European signatories of the nuclear deal have also made similar remarks, but Iran has categorically rejected any further negotiations, saying the nuclear deal must be implemented as negotiated and signed in 2015…………….. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/21/world-powers-renew-commitment-to-preserve-iran-nuclear-deal

December 22, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran builds at underground nuclear plant

Iran builds at underground nuclear plant, The West Australian Jon GambrellAAP. Fri, 18 December 2020 Iran has begun construction on a site at its underground nuclear facility at Fordo amid tensions with the US over its atomic program, satellite photos obtained by The Associated Press show.

Iran has not publicly acknowledged any new construction at Fordo, whose discovery by the West in 2009 came in an earlier

round of brinkmanship before world powers struck the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran.

While the purpose of the building remains unclear, any work at Fordo likely will trigger new concern in the waning days of the

Trump administration before the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden.

Already, Iran is building at its Natanz nuclear facility after a mysterious explosion in July there that Tehran described as a

sabotage attack.

“Any changes at this site will be carefully watched as a sign of where Iran’s nuclear program is headed,” said Jeffrey Lewis,

an expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies who

studies Iran.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The International Atomic Energy

Agency, whose inspectors are in Iran as part of the nuclear deal, also did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

…………..https://thewest.com.au/business/energy/iran-builds-at-underground-nuclear-plant-ng-s-2042622

December 20, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics | Leave a comment

West yet to condemn Iranian nuclear scientist’s assassination

West yet to condemn Iranian nuclear scientist’s assassination Friday, 18 December 2020 Robert Inlakesh. Press TV, London

In the wake of the Israeli assassination of Iran’s top scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Western governments and media are yet to actively condemn the terrorist attack which took place in Tehran.

Many analysts speculate that the respective actions of the media have acted to exacerbate regional tensions, rather than de-escalate the situation following the Israeli aggression against Iran.

Following the Israeli regime-sponsored terrorist attack on Iranian soil, what has been dubbed as psychological warfare has also been a tool used to attack Iran. With claims spread throughout the international press, regarding an alleged killing of an Iranian Quds Force commander along the Iraq-Syria border area; An unsubstantiated claim but published nonetheless……….

For long Israeli strikes conducted against sovereign nations have gone under reported and have skipped condemnation from Western nations, sparking the criticism that the international community operates on double-standards. https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/12/18/641027/Israeli-psychological-as-well-as-physical-warfare-against-Iran

December 20, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Iran’s Rouhani: No conditions or negotiations on nuclear deal

Iran’s Rouhani: No conditions or negotiations on nuclear deal

The US tried to include Iran’s missile programme and regional issues in the original nuclear deal but it is non-negotiable, president says. Aljazeera, By Maziar Motamedi, 14 Dec 2020, Tehran, Iran – President Hassan Rouhani said Iran will not accept any preconditions in returning to the nuclear deal it signed with world powers and will not negotiate its missiles programme or regional activities.

The United States and European powers have said in recent weeks they remain committed to revitalising the nuclear deal – formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – which outgoing US President Donald Trump unilaterally abandoned in 2018……….. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/14/irans-rouhani-no-conditions-or-negotiations-on-nuclear-deal

December 15, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran clearly wants to maintain the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)

Iran will not accept new nuclear deal: MP, Tehran Times December 13, 2020 “Iran’s position on the JCPOA is quite clear. There is a consensus in the establishment in its entirety on the nuclear deal that Iran demands that all JCPOA parties should return to the deal and implement it unconditionally,” the lawmaker said, according to the Parliament’s news agency ICANA.

Rahimi Jahanabadi also referred to the upcoming meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission, which is scheduled to be held on Wednesday, saying that during the meeting the two issues should be discussed.

“It is expected that Mr. Araghchi, as Iran’s representative, underlines two issues in the JCPOA Joint Commission meeting. First of all, he should reiterate that the JCPOA is the best deal. Second, Iran will not accept a new deal and negotiations,” the lawmaker said, adding that Iran should tell the 4+1 that it will return to its past activities if the Westerners fail to implement their commitments.

4+1 refers to France, Britain, Russia and China as four permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. First it was referred to as 5+1, before Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the multilateral agreement.

On Saturday, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, the deputy foreign minister of Iran for political affairs, announced in a statement that the Joint Commission will hold a meeting at the level of deputy ministers and political directors.

The meeting will be held via videoconference. Araghchi said he will represent Iran in the meeting……… https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/455734/Iran-will-not-accept-new-nuclear-deal-MP

December 14, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran Awards Military Medal To Nuclear Scientist Assassinated Last Month

Iran Awards Military Medal To Nuclear Scientist Assassinated Last Month NDTV 13 Dec 20, Tehran:

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday posthumously awarded a prestigious military decoration to top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was assassinated last month, state television reported.

Fakhrizadeh was killed on a major road outside Tehran in late November in a bomb and gun attack that the Islamic republic has blamed on its arch foe Israel……. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-awards-military-medal-to-nuclear-scientist-mohsen-fakhrizadeh-assassinated-last-month-2338031

December 14, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics | Leave a comment

Iran’s President Rouhani ready to restore the nuclear deal

Rouhani: ‘No negotiations’ needed to restore Iran nuclear deal https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/9/iran-rouhani-no-negotiations-on-nuclear-deal

President Rouhani says Iran will return to its commitments that were part of the deal if other signatories do the same. By

Maziar Motamedi, 9 Dec 2020, Tehran, Iran – Iran’s nuclear deal can be restored without negotiations despite recent escalations following the assassination of a top nuclear scientist, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has told world powers.

Rouhani said United States President Donald Trump “scribbled on a piece of paper” in May 2018, unilaterally withdrawing from the nuclear deal.

“The next person can put up a nice piece of paper and sign it and it just needs a signature, we’ll be back where we were. Ittakes no time and needs no negotiations,” Rouhani said in a televised cabinet speech on Wednesday.

“And it’s not just about the US. The P4+1 can return to all their commitments and we will do the same,” he said in reference to France, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, and Russia, the other signatories of the nuclear deal.

US President-elect Joe Biden and Europe have signalled that while they wish to restore the nuclear deal, they believe it needs to be renegotiated and extended.

Exactly a year after the US pulled out of the landmark deal and imposed harsh sanctions on Iran, Tehran gradually scaled back its commitments under the deal in five steps that it said are reversible.

Following the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh outside Tehran last month, the Iranian parliament, dominated by conservatives and hardliners, quickly passed a bill that aims to increase uranium enrichment and expel inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The Rouhani administration has explicitly said it opposes the legislation and was not consulted in its drafting.

Rouhani said all the new advanced centrifuges that are being installed at the Natanz underground nuclear facilities can be switched off once all the signatories of the nuclear deal start fully implementing their commitments.

Earlier this week, France, Germany and the UK – together known as the E3 – issued a joint statement saying Iran’s plans for a further reduction of nuclear commitments are “deeply worrying” and go against the spirit of the accord.

December 10, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran hastens nuclear legislation in response to the assassination of its nuclear scientist

Iran vows to build two new nuclear facilities, alarming observers https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/iran-vows-build-two-new-nuclear-facilities-alarming-observers By Richard StoneDec. 8, 2020,

Iran’s possible responses to the assassination of a prominent nuclear scientist go well beyond boosting uranium enrichment and expelling weapons inspectors, two provisions of a law passed by Iran’s parliament that alarmed nonproliferation experts last week. Equally worrisome are new facilities the law requires, which could enable Iran to make plutonium and fashion uranium into bomb components.

The legislation had been in the works for months, but parliament fast-tracked it after the 27 November killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, director of a Revolutionary Guard research unit who had previously led a secret nuclear weapons program shuttered in 2003, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran’s powerful Guardian Council last week approved the law. The potential limits on IAEA monitoring are of particular concern, says a European diplomat involved in negotiations with Iran. “IAEA would go blind in many areas of Iran’s nuclear establishment.”

Posing a fresh proliferation risk are the new facilities the bill mandates: a lab for working with uranium in metal form—a vital skill if Iran were to make nuclear weapons—and a heavy water reactor that could accumulate plutonium in its spent fuel. “If either was to proceed, that would stand out as a major proliferation concern,” says Richard Johnson, senior director for fuel cycle and verification at the nonprofit Nuclear Threat Initiative.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s administration opposed the legislation. However, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told an international forum last week, “We will implement it. We have no other choice.” But Zarif noted the law is reversible. “The remedy is very easy,” he said: Iran would shelve the law if the United States returns to the 2015 nuclear deal, formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which restrained Iran’s nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions. The Trump administration pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018; President-elect Joe Biden has pledged to rejoin it.

The JCPOA, proponents say, lengthened the time Iran would need to accumulate enough fissile material for a bomb, from several weeks to at least 1 year. A key provision is a cap on uranium enrichment at 3.67% of the fissile isotope uranium-235 (U-235), which is a level sufficient for civilian nuclear reactors. One year after the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, and after Europe’s failure to deliver promised economic relief, Iran began to breach the pact, including increasing enrichment to 4.5%. A hike to 20%—which last week’s law requires—is a big step toward weapons-grade uranium, which is generally defined as greater than 90% U-235.

A heavy water reactor would pose another headache. Before the JCPOA, Iran was building a 40-megawatt heavy water reactor in Arak to produce radioisotopes for medicine. As originally designed, the reactor would have accumulated one or two bombs’ worth of plutonium each year in its spent fuel. The JCPOA required that the facility, not yet complete, be redesigned as a 20-megawatt reactor that largely eliminates plutonium production. But the redesign stalled after the U.S. Department of State in May canceled sanction waivers permitting import of necessary equipment and technology. The new law orders the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) to complete the 40-megawatt reactor—apparently the configuration originally planned at Arak—and design a second 40-megawatt heavy water reactor; a timetable for completion of both projects is due in early January 2021.

The law also mandates that AEOI inaugurate a “metallic uranium factory” in Isfahan within 5 months. Iran had agreed under the JCPOA to a 15-year moratorium on uranium and plutonium metallurgy.

Any provocation from the West could spur the Iranian government to implement the law even faster. “Many things could go wrong in the next several weeks,” the European diplomat says. And a U.S. return to the pact would not be instantaneous. “We can’t just snap our fingers and say, ‘We’re back in,’” Johnson says. The Biden administration would have to rescind sanctions that run contrary to the JCPOA, while Iran would have return to compliance by mothballing advanced centrifuges, for example, and steeply reducing a growing stockpile of enriched uranium.