Analysts In Iran Pessimistic Over Nuclear Talks, Oppose Further Delays

Analysts In Iran Pessimistic Over Nuclear Talks, Oppose Further Delays, Iran International, 6 Sept 21

Reza Nasri, a senior international relations expert in Iran has warned the Iranian government that delaying the resumption of nuclear talks with world powers would give an opportunity to the deal’s opponents in the West to erect new hurdles to a new agreement.

Nasri told ISNA news website in Iran that some American opponents of the 2015 nuclear agreement known as JCPOA may try to use this opportunity to form alliances against the revival of the deal among members of the US Congress………………….   https://iranintl.com/en/world/analysts-iran-pessimistic-over-nuclear-talks-oppose-further-delays

September 6, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

What’s next for the Iran nuclear deal?

Iran nuclear deal: What’s next for the JCPOA?

With a conservative government in Iran and Biden touting ‘other options’, restoring JCPOA will be difficult, analysts say, Aljazeera, By Ali Harb, 3 Sep 2021 Washington, DC – Tehran says it is seeking sanction relief; Washington says containing the Iranian nuclear programme is a national security priority.

And so, both countries maintained that they have an interest in reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. But six rounds of talks in Vienna earlier this year have failed to produce a path to restore the multilateral agreement.

The election of conservative President Ebrahim Raisi in Iran has further complicated the situation. Negotiations have been on ice since June with the Iranian government in transition. Last week, the Iranian parliament approved Raisi’s cabinet, but the parties are yet to set solid plans for resuming the negotiations.

With hardliners consolidating power in Iran and US President Joe Biden tackling multiple crises at home, analysts have said reviving the nuclear pact will be difficult.

Negar Mortazavi, an Iranian-American journalist and analyst, said she is pessimistic about the prospects of reinstating the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

A Raisi government run by ideologues and more interested in relations with China and Russia will not be rushing to negotiate with the US, she said.

“I’m prepared for the possibility that the return would not happen,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.

“And this is not only on the Iranian side, but it’s also the Biden administration. Joe Biden himself – even though he did promise a return to the JCPOA – it doesn’t seem like he’s willing to spend the political capital that is required for this return

Iran says all sanctions must go

As a candidate, Biden pledged to restore the deal that saw Iran curb its nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions against its economy.

The administration says it seeks to make the deal “longer and stronger” and use it as a platform to address broader issues with Tehran, including Iran’s ballistic missiles and regional activities.

On Thursday, Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said Iran agrees “in principle” to resuming the Vienna talks.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry said Amirabdollahian told his German counterpart, Heiko Maas, that negotiations must “result in removing all sanctions on the country and fulfilling the rights of the Iranian people”…………………

Since 2015, Trump imposed more than 1,000 sanctions on Iran, and Biden added a few of his own.

The Biden administration has expressed willingness to remove some sanctions not officially labelled as nuclear. But Iran said it wants all sanctions revoked. And so, the two countries have to agree on the scope of sanction relief. Even then, sanctions cannot be undone with the stroke of a pen. Removing them can be a lengthy process that involves several government agencies…………………https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/3/iran-nuclear-deal-whats-next-for-the-jcpoa

September 4, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran’s new foreign minister Warns Tehran May Not Return to Nuclear Talks Until November

New Iranian FM Warns Tehran May Not Return to Nuclear Talks Until November . by Sharon Wrobel, 1 Sept 21,

Iran’s new foreign minister hinted that a resumption of talks on the revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal could take up to two to three months.

“The other side understands that it will take two or three months for the new government to be established in Iran and plan for any sort of decision on this topic,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told state TV in an interview on Monday night.

Last week, Iran’s parliament approved most of the hardline nominees put forward by newly elected President Ebrahim Raisi…………   https://www.algemeiner.com/2021/08/31/new-iranian-fm-warns-tehran-may-not-return-to-nuclear-talks-until-november/

September 2, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran Foreign Ministry defends latest nuclear measures

Foreign Ministry Defends Latest Nuclear Measures, Financial Tribune, 21 Aug 21,

Iran reiterated that its nuclear program is peaceful and said it had informed the International Atomic Energy Agency about its latest nuclear enrichment activities. 

It added that its moves away from the 2015 nuclear deal would be reversed if the United States returned to the accord and lifted sanctions.

“If the other parties return to their obligations under the nuclear accord and Washington fully and verifiably lifts its unilateral and illegal sanctions … all of Iran’s mitigation and countermeasures will be reversible,” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said, ISNA reported.

The remarks by the senior diplomat came after the UN atomic watchdog said in a report on Tuesday that Iran has accelerated its enrichment of uranium to the 60% purity level……………………….

The talks have been at a standstill since the inauguration of Iran’s new President Ebrahim Raeisi, although he says he supports efforts to lift US sanctions.  https://financialtribune.com/articles/national/109860/foreign-ministry-defends-latest-nuclear-measures

August 23, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Russia, Germany, hope efforts to save Iran nuclear deal will be continued — Putin

Russia, Germany hope efforts to save Iran nuclear deal will be continued — Putin,  Tass, 20 Aug 21, The Russian leader also said he had informed Merkel about his telephone conversation with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on August 18   MOSCOW, August 20. /TASS/. Russia and Germany hope that efforts towards saving the Iran nuclear deal will be continued after a new government is formed in Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin said after talks with visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

“When discussing the situation around the Iran nuclear deal, we with Mrs Chancellor expressed the hope that after a new government is formed in Iran, strenuous efforts will be continued to preserve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” he said.

Putin also said he had informed Merkel about his telephone conversation with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on August 18.

The JCPOA Joint Commission has had several offline meetings in Vienna since April to discuss prospects for the United States’ possible return to the deal and steps needed to ensure full and efficient compliance with the deal’s terms by all its signatories. The commission members continue to discuss ways of restoring the nuclear deal at informal meetings in various formats, including at an expert level. JCPOA participants also hold separate consultations with the US delegation without Iran’s participation. It was originally planned to finish consultations in late May and then – in early June………… https://tass.com/politics/1328453

August 21, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Biden’s Iran envoy calls nuclear deal’s fate ‘one big question mark

Biden’s Iran envoy calls nuclear deal’s fate ‘one big question mark’, Politico, By ALEXANDER WARD and QUINT FORGEY  08/19/2021   ROBERT MALLEY, the man President JOE BIDEN has tasked with putting the United States back into the Iran nuclear deal, isn’t supremely confident he’ll succeed in his mission.

“It’s just one big question mark,” he told NatSec Daily during an exclusive interview in his State Department office. Rejoining the multinational accord “is not something that we can fully control,” he said, citing a lack of engagement from the Iranians.

Negotiations between the United States, Iran and five world powers have proceeded fruitlessly since April. Tehran’s side won’t even speak directly with Washington’s and instead prefers working through intermediaries while in Vienna. That dance was complicated by the arrival of new Iranian President EBRAHIM RAISI, a hardliner who experts suspect is more skeptical of the diplomatic effort than his pact-signing predecessor. No open bargaining has taken place since Raisi came to power in mid-July.

………….. Should the United States and Iran fail to agree on terms in the coming months, the envoy says his team is preparing some contingencies. One is that Washington and Tehran sign a wholly separate deal, complete with different parameters than the current accord. Another is a suite of punitive responses in coordination with European allies, though Malley didn’t specifically detail what those would be…………   https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2021/08/19/exclusive-bidens-iran-envoy-calls-nuclear-deals-fate-one-big-question-mark-494049

August 21, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Hopes rise that Iran hardliner will rejuvenate nuclear deal

Hopes rise that Iran hardliner will rejuvenate nuclear deal.   New foreign minister likely to wield more influence in Tehran than his predecessor,  Ft.com 13 Aug 21, ”……………………………………..Amirabdollahian, a hardliner close to Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, is set to become the main interlocutor with the west after he was nominated this week as the Islamic Republic’s foreign minister. He takes over from Mohammad Javad Zarif, a veteran US-educated diplomat who used a mix of charm and skills honed over a decade as the face of Iranian diplomacy in his dealings with western powers. Zarif was one of the main supporters of the nuclear deal, which he helped seal and then battled to keep alive as tensions with the west soared after Donald Trump, the then US president, abandoned the accord three years ago.  

But Iranian analysts are optimistic that Amirabdollahian — a 57-year-old graduate of Iran’s universities who comes from a humble background — may be able to revive the deal and achieve more lasting diplomatic results. They say his connections to the powerful hardline factions at the heart of the regime will give him greater domestic influence than Zarif, who by his own admission was often undermined by the Revolutionary Guards. “Under Amirabdollahian, we will not see more radicalism, rather more co-ordination between the diplomatic and military fields,” said a regime insider.  ……………..

Amirabdollahian is no stranger to nuclear talks. In 2013 he was involved in secret discussions with Omani officials. These led to confidential meetings with Americans and Europeans that were the forebear to the 2015 accord.  ……
Mohammad Mohajeri, a conservative analyst, said choosing Amirabdollahian over more radical figures who opposed the nuclear deal signalled that Raisi wanted to avoid escalating tensions with its foes…….. https://www.ft.com/content/03c031f7-9194-4cb4-b3c7-91c176d4b770

August 14, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran’s research reactors prove the nuclear deal is still working

How Iran’s research reactors prove the nuclear deal is still working, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists By Samuel M. Hickey | August 11, 2021  An underexamined success story from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal negotiations is the effective blocking of Tehran’s ability to collect plutonium for a nuclear bomb. Not only has the nuclear deal, known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), been effective in constraining Iran’s program, but it could, suitably adapted, provide a standard of guidance for research reactor construction that would lower proliferation risks worldwide.

There are two pathways to get the fissile material to fuel a nuclear bomb. The first is to enrich uranium, and the second is to recover plutonium from the spent fuel of a reactor. The JCPOA blocked both pathways. Now, Iran’s advancing enrichment program is the key obstacle for diplomats trying to revive the deal, and those talks have dragged on for months as the program marches forward.

Many nuclear weapons, including that used on Hiroshima, are uranium-based. However, every country that has a nuclear weapon has produced and separated plutonium for weapons. Iran has not reopened this path despite efforts by its conservative-dominated parliament to pressure the United States to lift sanctions in return for nuclear deal compliance. In December 2020, Iran passed a nuclear law requiring a return to a threatening research reactor design. So far, Iran has not adhered to that law because the modifications made to the original design under the JCPOA made the reactor even more efficient. This suggests that even in its weakened state, the JCPOA continues to provide permanent solutions to potential proliferation concerns. Its revival can further cement these gains as a “longer and stronger” deal is sought.

The inherent problem with nuclear reactors. Here’s the conundrum for nuclear negotiators both with Iran now and potentially with other countries in the future: Given enough time, all civilian research reactors will produce enough plutonium for a nuclear weapon that could be reprocessed—or separated from irradiated uranium—in their spent fuel. Some, like Iran’s Arak heavy water research reactor, as originally designed, are particularly well suited for plutonium production but also have civilian purposes such as medical radioisotope production and the testing of nuclear fuel and materials. Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, Sweden, and Taiwan have considered acquiring reprocessing plants but eventually demurred, given international reaction to the potential for proliferation. There is no public evidence that Iran has a reprocessing facility.

Since the Trump administration pulled out of the JCPOA, Iran has introduced advanced centrifuges and stockpiled uranium. This means that the amount of time for Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon via the enriched uranium path has been significantly decreased. However, the spent fuel pathway has not been reactivated as Iran has not done any work to reconstruct the Arak heavy water research reactor to its original design nor has it engaged in any reprocessing activities. Iran’s hedging strategy, ostensibly to accumulate leverage in negotiations to revive the JCPOA, suggests that nuclear brinksmanship with uranium enrichment grants a certain flexibility that plutonium does not……………………….. https://thebulletin.org/2021/08/how-irans-research-reactors-prove-the-nuclear-deal-is-still-working/

August 12, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

EU optimistic on nuclear deal despite Iran leadership change

EU optimistic on nuclear deal despite Iran leadership change

Agreement is “most likely scenario” says senior official   Politico BY JACOPO BARIGAZZI, August 7, 2021   European Union negotiators are optimistic on the chances of reviving the nuclear deal with Iran, despite the election of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi as the country’s new president, a senior EU official said Saturday.

“We still think that the most likely scenario is an agreement. What I cannot tell you is when and [under] what conditions” said the senior official. 

International negotiators have held six rounds of talks in Vienna to restore full compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal which has been on life support since the Trump administration’s decision to pull out in 2018. The deal curbed Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief.

Negotiations were paused following the election of Raisi in June. He was sworn in this week to replace the more moderate Hassan Rouhani.  

Contacts this week with Iranian officials on the sidelines of Raisi’s inauguration have not clarified when talks on the nuclear deal will resume or who will be in Tehran’s negotiating team, said the EU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks……………….. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-iran-nuclear-deal-leadership-vienna/

August 9, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Problems continue for Iran nuclear talks as new Iran President takes office

Hopes of revived Iran nuclear talks dim amid delays as new hardline president takes office, By Natasha Bertrand and Nicole Gaouette, CNN, August 6, 2021  Washington (CNN)Biden administration officials are becoming increasingly pessimistic about reviving the Iran nuclear deal as the country’s new hardline president takes office and its nuclear program continues to accelerate, national security and intelligence officials familiar with the negotiations told CNN.

The deal’s original signatories known as the P5+1 — the US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany — had hoped to begin their seventh round of negotiations by now. Some officials have expressed disappointment that the talks have been so delayed since the last round ended on June 20, especially as Iran’s nuclear advances risk making the current deal irrelevant.Now that President Ebrahim Raisi is officially in power after his inauguration Thursday, officials are hoping meetings will begin again in the next few weeks, but it’s still not clear if and when that will happen.

While Raisi is considered a hardliner, he has said that in principle he does not oppose the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, and American officials have said they don’t expect him to walk away from the talks………

Failure to return to the deal would be a blow to President Joe Biden’s foreign policy agenda.His officials, meanwhile, have fumed privately that they inherited major roadblocks to re-entering the deal from the previous administration and are now thinking through contingency plans.After President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018 and imposed a maximum pressure campaign on Iran with stiff new sanctions, Iran began developing and testing centrifuges that have shortened the time it would take to produce enough material for a bomb……..There is speculation among the P5 + 1 partners that the delay could be a tactical move by Iran. Increasingly, however, they also believe there is a real debate going on within the Iranian system on how to proceed with negotiations. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/06/politics/iran-nuclear-talks-pessimism-delay-raisi/index.html

August 7, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | 1 Comment

U.S. Weighing New Sanctions on Iran as Nuclear Deal Hangs in Balance

U.S. Weighing New Sanctions on Iran as Nuclear Deal Hangs in Balance  https://www.democracynow.org/2021/7/30/headlines/us_weighing_new_sanctions_on_iran_as_nuclear_deal_hangs_in_balance HEADLINEJUL 30, 2021   The U.S. is reportedly planning to impose sanctions on Iran’s drone and guided missile programs. This comes following reports the Biden administration is weighing tightening oil sanctions on Iran if talks to relaunch the nuclear deal — which the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from — fail. Iran has repeatedly said it will not recommit to the agreement until the U.S. lifts its devastating sanctions.

July 31, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran trying to enrich uranium metal that could help develop nuclear weapon, UN watchdog says,

Iran trying to enrich uranium metal that could help develop nuclear weapon, UN watchdog says, ABC,  7 jul 21,   Iran has begun the process of producing enriched uranium metal in a move that could help it develop a nuclear weapon, the UN atomic watchdog says.

Key points:

• Tehran says it is trying to develop fuel for a research reactor
• Donald Trump abandoned the US-Iran nuclear deal while US president
• The move could torpedo talks seeking to bring both nations back into the deal

Britain, France and Germany have threatened talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in light of the news, while the United States has described it as an “unfortunate step backwards”.

Tehran said the steps, which were disclosed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Tuesday, were aimed at developing fuel for a research reactor.

US and European officials made clear that Iran’s decision would complicate, and potentially torpedo, indirect US-Iranian talks seeking to bring both nations back into compliance with the 2015 deal, which was abandoned by former US president Donald Trump.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) imposed curbs on Iran’s nuclear program to make it harder for Tehran to develop fissile material for nuclear weapons in return for the lifting of economic sanctions………………https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/iran-nuclear-move-threatens-to-torpedo-deal-talks-with-us/100275388

July 8, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment