J.D. Vance – New York Times: The Math on Ukraine Doesn’t Add Up
The notion that we should prolong a bloody and gruesome war because it’s been good for American business is grotesque.
Mr. Zelensky’s stated goal for the war — a return to 1991 boundaries — is fantastical.
J.D.Vance, The New York Times, Fri, 12 Apr 2024 , https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/12/opinion/jd-vance-ukraine.html
President Biden wants the world to believe that the biggest obstacle facing Ukraine is Republicans and our lack of commitment to the global community. This is wrong.
Ukraine’s challenge is not the G.O.P.; it’s math. Ukraine needs more soldiers than it can field, even with draconian conscription policies. And it needs more matériel than the United States can provide. This reality must inform any future Ukraine policy, from further congressional aid to the diplomatic course set by the president.
The Biden administration has applied increasing pressure on Republicans to pass a supplemental aid package of more than $60 billion to Ukraine. I voted against this package in the Senate and remain opposed to virtually any proposal for the United States to continue funding this war. Mr. Biden has failed to articulate even basic facts about what Ukraine needs and how this aid will change the reality on the ground.
The most fundamental question: How much does Ukraine need and how much can we actually provide? Mr. Biden suggests that a $60 billion supplemental means the difference between victory and defeat in a major war between Russia and Ukraine. That is also wrong. This $60 billion is a fraction of what it would take to turn the tide in Ukraine’s favor. But this is not just a matter of dollars. Fundamentally, we lack the capacity to manufacture the amount of weapons Ukraine needs us to supply to win the war.
Consider our ability to produce 155-millimeter artillery shells. Last year, Ukraine’s defense minister estimated that the country’s base-line requirement for these shells was over four million per year but that it could fire up to seven million if that many were available. Since the start of the conflict, the United States has gone to great lengths to ramp up production of 155-millimeter shells. We’ve roughly doubled our capacity and can now produce 360,000 per year — less than a tenth of what Ukraine says it needs. The administration’s goal is to get this to 1.2 million — 30 percent of what’s needed — by the end of 2025. This would cost the American taxpayers dearly while yielding an unpleasantly familiar result: failure abroad.
Just this week, the top American military commander in Europe argued that absent further security assistance, Russia could soon have a 10-to-1 artillery advantage over Ukraine. What didn’t gather as many headlines is that Russia’s current advantage is at least 5 to 1, even after all the money we have poured into the conflict. Neither of these ratios plausibly leads to Ukrainian victory.
Proponents of American aid to Ukraine have argued that our approach has been a boon to our own economy, creating jobs here in the factories that manufacture weapons. But our national security interests can be — and often are — separate from our economic interests.The notion that we should prolong a bloody and gruesome war because it’s been good for American business is grotesque. We can and should rebuild our industrial base without shipping its products to a foreign conflict.
The story is the same when we look at other munitions. Take the Patriot missile system — our premier air defense weapon. It’s of such importance in this war that Ukraine’s foreign minister has specifically demanded them. That’s because in March alone, Russia reportedly launched over 3,000 guided aerial bombs, 600 drones and 400 missiles at Ukraine. To fend off these attacks, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and others have indicated they need thousands of Patriot interceptors per year. The problem is this: The United States only manufactures 550 every year. If we pass the supplemental aid package currently being considered in Congress, we could potentially increase annual production to 650, but that’s still less than a third of what Ukraine requires.
These weapons are not only needed by Ukraine. If China were to set its sights on Taiwan, the Patriot missile system would be critical to its defense. In fact, the United States has promised to send Taiwan nearly $900 million worth of Patriot missiles, but delivery of those weapons and other essential resources has been severely delayed, partly because of shortages caused by the war in Ukraine.
If that sounds bad, Ukraine’s manpower situation is even worse. Here are the basics:Russia has nearly four times the population of Ukraine. Ukraine needs upward of half a million new recruits, but hundreds of thousands of fighting-age men have already fled the country. The average Ukrainian soldier is roughly 43 years old, and many soldiers have already served two years at the front with few, if any, opportunities to stop fighting. After two years of conflict, there are some villages with almost no men left. The Ukrainian military has resorted to coercing men into service, and women have staged protests to demand the return of their husbands and fathers after long years of service at the front. This newspaper reported one instance in which the Ukrainian military attempted to conscript a man with a diagnosed mental disability.
Many in Washington seem to think that hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainians have gone to war with a song in their heart and are happy to label any thought to the contrary Russian propaganda. But major newspapers on both sides of the Atlantic are reporting that the situation on the ground in Ukraine is grim.
These basic mathematical realities were true, but contestable, at the outset of the war. They were obvious and incontestable a year ago, when American leadership worked closely with Mr. Zelensky to undertake a disastrous counteroffensive. The bad news is that accepting brute reality would have been most useful last spring, before the Ukrainians launched that extremely costly and unsuccessful military campaign. The good news is that even now, a defensive strategy can work. Digging in with old-fashioned ditches, cement and land mines are what enabled Russia to weather Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive. Our allies in Europe could better support such a strategy, as well. While some European countries have provided considerable resources, the burden of military support has thus far fallen heaviest on the United States.
By committing to a defensive strategy, Ukraine can preserve its precious military manpower, stop the bleeding and provide time for negotiations to commence. But this would require both the American and Ukrainian leadership to accept that Mr. Zelensky’s stated goal for the war — a return to 1991 boundaries — is fantastical.
The White House has said time and again that it can’t negotiate with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. This is absurd. The Biden administration has no viable plan for the Ukrainians to win this war. The sooner Americans confront this truth, the sooner we can fix this mess and broker for peace.
UN nuclear watchdog’s board sets emergency meeting after Zaporizhzhia attacks
The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s Board of Governors will hold an emergency
meeting on Thursday at the request of both Ukraine and Russia to discuss
attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, after the enemies accused
each other of drone attacks. The International Atomic Energy Agency has
said drones struck the Russian-held facility in southern Ukraine on Sunday,
hitting one reactor building. It has not ascribed blame but has demanded
such attacks stop.
Reuters 10th April 2024
New blast at Europe’s largest nuclear plant in Ukraine
EUROPE’S largest nuclear plant was attacked by drones again today,
posing no direct threat to its safety but underscoring the “extremely
serious situation” at the facility in Ukraine, the United Nations has
said. The International Atomic Energy Agency said its team was aware of an
explosion at a training centre next to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
today.
Morning Star 9th April 2024
https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/new-blast-europes-largest-nuclear-plant-ukraine
Attacks on Ukrainian nuclear facilities ‘must cease immediately’: UN atomic watchdog
United Nations, 8 April 2024, Peace and Security 8 Apr 24
The head of the UN nuclear watchdog agency reiterated that attacks against nuclear power plants in Ukraine are “an absolute no go”, following direct military action targeting the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on Sunday.
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said the targeting marked a “major escalation” in the level of danger facing the power plant.
It was the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 that the ZNPP – Europe’s largest nuclear power plant – has been directly targeted. It has been occupied by Russian forces since the early weeks of the fighting.
As of Sunday, while there were “no indications” of damage to critical nuclear safety or security systems, the strikes were “another stark reminder” of the threats to the power plant and other nuclear facilities during the ongoing war, IAEA said.
“Although the damage at unit 6 has not compromised nuclear safety, this was a serious incident that had the potential to undermine the integrity of the reactor’s containment system,” Director General Grossi said.
‘A major escalation’
“This is a major escalation of the nuclear safety and security dangers facing the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. Such reckless attacks significantly increase the risk of a major nuclear accident and must cease immediately,” Mr. Grossi said.
Reiterating that no one can “conceivably benefit” or get any military or political advantage from attacks against nuclear facilities, he stressed such attacks are “an absolute no go”.
“I firmly appeal to military decision makers to abstain from any action violating the basic principles that protect nuclear facilities.”
At least one casualty
According to IAEA, after receiving information from the ZNPP about the drone attacks, its experts stationed at the site went to three affected locations.
They were able to confirm the physical impact of the drone detonations, including at one of the site’s six reactor buildings where surveillance and communication equipment appeared to have been the target.
While they were at the roof of the reactor, Russian troops engaged what appeared to be an approaching drone, the agency said, adding that this was followed by an explosion near the reactor building.
“The IAEA team reported that they observed remnants of drones at this and two other impact locations at the site. At one of them, outside a laboratory, they saw blood stains next to a damaged military logistics vehicle, indicating at least one casualty,” it said.
IAEA experts further reported hearing explosions and rifle fire on the site throughout the day. The team also heard several rounds of outgoing artillery fire from near the plant………………………… https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1148346—
What are the risks at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant after drone attack?
By Guy Faulconbridge and Francois Murphy, April 8, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nuclear-power-plant-eye-ukraine-war-2024-04-08/
MOSCOW/VIENNA, – Russia said Ukraine struck the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station controlled by Russian forces three times on Sunday and demanded the West respond, though Kyiv said it had nothing to do with the attacks.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has long warned of the risks of a disaster at Zaporizhzhia, Europe’s largest nuclear plant, and urged an end to fighting in the area.
The plant is just 500 km (300 miles) from the site of the world’s worst nuclear accident, the 1986 Chornobyl disaster.
What nuclear material is at the Zaporizhzhia plant, what are the risks and why are Russia and Ukraine fighting over it?
WHAT IS IT AND WHAT WAS ITS CAPACITY?
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has six Soviet-designed VVER-1000 V-320 water-cooled and water-moderated reactors containing Uranium 235. They were all built in the 1980s, though the sixth only came online in the mid-1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
All but one of the reactors are in cold shutdown. Reactor unit 4 is in “hot shutdown”, mainly for heating purposes.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi says that fighting a war around a nuclear plant has put nuclear safety and security in “constant jeopardy”.
WHAT HAPPENED ON APRIL 7?
Russia’s state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, said Ukraine attacked the plant three times on Sunday with drones, first injuring three near a canteen, then attacking a cargo area and then the dome above reactor No. 6.
IAEA experts at the site went to the three locations of the attacks and confirmed there had been an attack.
“Russian troops engaged what appeared to be an approaching drone,” the IAEA said. “This was followed by an explosion near the reactor building.”
“While the team so far has not observed any structural damage to systems, structures, and components important to nuclear safety or security of the plant, they reported observing minor superficial scorching to the top of the reactor dome roof of Unit 6 and scoring of a concrete slab supporting the primary make-up water storage tanks,” the IAEA said.
The IAEA did not say directly who was to blame for the attacks.
A Ukrainian intelligence official said Kyiv had nothing to do with any strikes on the station and suggested they were the work of Russians themselves.
WHAT ARE THE RISKS?
Russian forces took control of the plant in early March 2022, weeks after invading Ukraine. Special Russian military units guard the facility and a unit of Russia’s state nuclear company, Rosatom, runs the plant.
Nuclear reactors’ containment structures like Zaporizhzhia’s are made of steel-lined reinforced concrete designed to withstand the impact of a small plane crash so there is little immediate risk from a minor attack on those structures.
A 1989 study by the U.S. Department of Energy found that the model of containment structure used in Zaporizhzia “exhibits vulnerabilities to the effects of an aircraft crash” and a fighter jet crashing downwards into the dome, where the structure is thinner, could penetrate it, causing concrete chunks and aircraft engine parts to fall inside.
External power lines essential to cooling nuclear fuel in the reactors are a softer potential target. Cooling fuel even in reactors in cold shutdown is necessary to prevent a nuclear meltdown.
Since the war began the plant has lost all external power eight times, most recently in December last year, forcing it to rely on emergency diesel generators for power. Water is also needed to cool fuel.
Pressurised water is used to transfer heat away from the reactors even when they are shut down, and pumped water is also used to cool down removed spent nuclear fuel from the reactors.
Without enough water, or power to pump the water, the fuel could melt down and the zirconium cladding could release hydrogen, which can explode.
WHAT ABOUT THE SPENT FUEL?
Besides the reactors, there is also a dry spent fuel storage facility at the site for used nuclear fuel assemblies, and spent fuel pools at each reactor site that are used to cool down the used nuclear fuel.
Without water supply to the pools, the water evaporates and the temperatures increase, risking a fire that could release a number of radioactive isotopes.
An emission of hydrogen from a spent fuel pool caused an explosion at reactor 4 in Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.
WHAT HAPPENS IN A MELTDOWN?
A meltdown of the fuel could trigger a fire or explosion that could release a plume of radionuclides into the air which could then spread over a large area.
The Chornobyl accident spread Iodine-131, Caesium-134, Strontium-90 and Caesium-137 across parts of northern Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, northern and central Europe.
Nearly 8.4 million people in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine were exposed to radiation, according to the United Nations. Around 50 deaths are directly attributed to the disaster itself.
But 600,000 “liquidators”, involved in fire-fighting and clean-up operations, were exposed to high doses of radiation. Hundreds of thousands were resettled.
There is mounting evidence that the health impact of the Chornobyl disaster was much more serious than initially presented at the time and in the years following the accident.
Incidence of thyroid cancer in children across swathes of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine increased after the accident. There was a much higher incidence of endocrine disorders, anaemia and respiratory diseases among children in contaminated areas.
Meet Centuria, Ukraine’s Western-trained neo-Nazi army
The Grayzone, KIT KLARENBERG·APRIL 7, 2024
A uniquely Ukrainian strain of Neo-Nazism is spreading throughout Europe, which openly advocates violence against minorities while seeking new recruits. With Kiev’s army collapsing and a narrative of Western betrayal gaining currency, the horror inflicted on residents of Donbas for a decade could very soon be coming to a city near you.
Centuria, an ultra-violent Ukrainian Neo-Nazi faction, has cemented itself in six cities across Germany, and is seeking to expand its local presence. According to Junge Welt, a Berlin-based Marxist daily, the Nazi organization’s growth has been “unhindered by local security services.”
Junge Welt traces Centuria’s origins to an August 2020 Neo-Nazi summit “at the edge of a forest near Kiev.” There, an ultranationalist named Igor “Tcherkas” Mikhailenko demanded the “hundreds of mostly masked vigilante fighters present,” who were members Kiev’s fascistic National Militia, “make sacrifices for the idea of ‘Greater Ukraine.’” As the former head of the Neo-Nazi Patriot of Ukraine’s Kharkiv division, and commander of the state sponsored Azov Battalion from 2014 to 2015, Mikhailenko has professed a desire to “destroy everything anti-Ukrainian.”
Junge Welt reports that since 2017, the National Militia “had been practicing brutal vigilante justice” throughout Ukraine, including “tyrannizing the LGBTQ scene.” Centuria was subsequently blamed for a terrifying November 2021 attack on a gay nightclub in Kiev, in which its operatives assaulted revelers with truncheons and pepper spray.
Now the same Neo-Nazi sect “has an offshoot in Germany,” Junge Welt revealed. On August 24 2023, the 32nd anniversary of Ukraine’s independence, Centuria convened a “nationalist rally” in the central city of Magdeburg, “unmolested by Antifa and critical media reporting.”
Participants proudly posed with the flag of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) founded by World War II-era Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera. Centuria boasted at the time on Telegram, “although Ukrainian youth are not in their homeland, they are starting to unite.” Meanwhile, they threatened the “enemies” of their country with “hellish storm,” pledging that “Ukrainian emigrants” would not “forget their national identity for a few hundred euros.”
Junge Welt reports that Centuria “is currently raising funds for its parent organization’s combat unit,” which is commanded by Andriy Biletsky – the Azov Battalion founder who infamously stated in 2014 that the Ukrainian nation’s mission was to “lead the white races of the world in a final crusade… against Semite-led Untermenschen.” At home, Centuria’s members express similar attitudes towards Muslims, Africans, and gays, whom they refer to, respectively, as the “German Caliphate,” “black rapists,” and “pedophiles.”
Now, the group’s members are working hard to pass their ideological vision down to future racists across the continent. “We are creating a new generation of heroes!” Centuria’s Telegram channel boasts. Accordingly, the neo-Nazi group has been arranging hiking trips to Germany’s Harz mountains with a Ukrainian nationalist scout association called Plast. This outfit opened chapters across the Western world beginning in the 1950s, in response to the Soviet Union’s hounding of fascists and nationalists. Besides receiving ideological indoctrination, Plast’s youthful members may have the opportunity to improve their physical fitness and receive military training. As Centuria ominously declares on Telegram, “free people have weapons.”
As Washington gradually backs away from its sponsorship of Ukraine’s war with Russia, it has begun ceding responsibility for the military campaign’s management – and likely failure – to Berlin. If US arms shipments continue to dwindle, Germany will become Kiev’s chief supplier of weapons. And the Germans may find that saying “no” to Ukraine could result in some nasty surprises………………………………………………………………………………………………. https://thegrayzone.com/2024/04/07/centuria-ukraines-western-neo-nazi-army/
Ukrainian artillery cuts last backup power line to Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant
Steven Starr, April 6, 2024
The fuel rods within the reactor core and in the spent fuel pools will continue to emit a large amount of heat (from the continuous decay of fission products within the fuel) even after the reactors are in a “cold shutdown”. Thus, electric power is required to run the cooling systems in the spent fuel ponds and the pumps that push cooling water through the reactors. If no offsite electricity is available, diesel generators are required to generate electricity to operate the pumps to cool the reactor and the cooling systems that cool the spent fuel pools.
A prolonged failure of the cooling systems (from loss of electric power) to continuously remove heat from the spent fuels will eventually cause the water in the pools to boil off and expose the spent fuel rods to steam and/or air. Exposure of the fuel rods to steam and/or air will cause them to overheat to the point of rupture or ignition, leading to the massive release of radioactivity. (The Soviet-designed reactors have their spent fuel pools inside the primary containment, unlike US reactors that locate spent fuel pools outside primary containment).
The fuel inside the steel reactor containment vessels must also be cooled (by pumping cooling water through the containment vessel). Failure of the cooling pumps to circulate water through the core will lead to the water in the containment vessel to superheat and eventually lead to the damage of the fuel rods, which would release large amounts of highly radioactive fission products.
Offsite power to the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has historically been provided by the Zaporozhye Thermal Power Station, which is located several kilometers away from the ZNPP. I think the damage to backup power line from Ukrainian artillery fire refers to the destruction of the power lines and power transformers that connect the Thermal Power Station to ZNPP.
Russia urges IAEA to publicly reveal Ukrainian attacks on nuclear plant
https://www.rt.com/russia/595516-russia-iaea-zaporozhye-attacks/ 6 Apr 24
The Zaporozhye NPP lost the connection to its last remaining backup power line after artillery fire was heard in the vicinity
Moscow has appealed to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), urging it to publicly record the recurring attacks by the Ukrainian army on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.
The plant is Europe’s largest atomic power station, with six reactor cores capable of generating a gigawatt of electricity each. The plant came under Moscow’s control in 2022, early on in the Ukraine conflict, and was formally transferred to Rosatom management after Zaporozhye Region was incorporated into Russia following a referendum. Kiev claimed it was illegally occupied and insisted that Russia kept heavy weapons at the plant and was attacking Ukrainian forces from it.
Kiev has since targeted the facility with artillery, missile, and drone attacks, and has sent armed groups to try and seize it. Earlier this week, the NPP lost the connection to its only remaining back-up power line, a key source of the electricity it needs to cool its reactors, with the IAEA team on the ground reporting that it heard “numerous rounds of artillery fire” in the vicinity of the plant. On Friday, the NPP wrote on Telegram that it has been repeatedly attacked by Ukrainian drones recently.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned Kiev on Friday against further attacks on the plant, noting that they could harm critical infrastructure and destabilize the facility. She also appealed to the IAEA to make the recent attacks and their perpetrators known to the public.
“We strongly urge the IAEA and its leadership to actively use the experts present at the station to publicly record all cases of attacks from the Ukrainian side and clearly state where the threat to the safe operation of this facility really comes from,” she said in a statement.
In a statement to TASS late Friday, the IAEA said it was aware of the reported attacks and was studying them, but refused to give any further details.
The IAEA deployed a permanent on-site monitoring mission to the plant in September 2022, but has repeatedly declined to publicly assess the incidents involving the facility or name Ukraine as the perpetrator.
Experts from the agency said the plant is now entirely dependent on the only remaining 750-kilowatt line for off-site power. The NPP reported that the loss of connection to the backup power line is being investigated, and noted that the radiation background at the station and the surrounding area so far remains unchanged.
America’s crazed proxy war on Russia is destroying Ukraine’s economy
Walt Zlotow, West Suburban Peace Coalition, Glen Ellyn IL 7 Apr 24
I’m no economist. But you don’t need to be one to figure out the economic catastrophe the US has imposed on its Trojan Horse Ukraine in its lust to weaken Russia.
Most opponents of this endless US debacle focus on the hundreds of thousands dead Ukrainian soldiers without a single US death to weaken, isolate Russia.
But we should not ignore the economic basket case Uncle Sam has created, essentially degrading life for every Ukrainian not yet killed.
Since goading Russia into invading 26 months ago, Ukraine has ceased to exist as an economically independent nation. Its exports have largely vanished, its imports have exploded. Ukraine has gone from a surplus exporter to a massive importer. That dries up foreign currency making the paying for further imports, even the national debt, increasingly problematic.
Exports plummeted by 17% and 30% respectively in ’22 and ’23. Imports? More than doubled since America’s disastrous, losing proxy war crossed the Red Line to invasion.
Ukraine now spends half its GDP on defense that’s accomplishing nothing but more soldier cemeteries and spiraling economic collapse. Its borrowed over $40 billion in last 2 years, a 200% increase compared to the previous 10 years. Its external debt is now 90% of GDP and heading north to 140% by 2026 according to EU estimates.
All this could have been avoided had the US realized 33 years ago that the Soviet Union’s demise meant the true end to the Cold War. Now, having turned the Cold War into a Hot War destroying Ukraine, America’s crazed leaders, including most Democrats and Republicans, lust for another $61 billion in weapons that will prolong the flow of red blood and red ink.
And the Big Fool in the White House just says ‘Push on.’
West helping Ukraine attack deep inside Russia – CNN
https://www.rt.com/russia/595314-west-helps-ukraine-drone-attacks/ 5 Apr 24
Kiev’s foreign backers are coordinating the flight paths of kamikaze drones, a report says
Western countries are helping Ukraine to launch kamikaze drones deep into Russian territory, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing a source close to Kiev’s drone program.
An unnamed Ukrainian official who spoke to CNN described how Kiev uses UAVs with longer ranges and “more advanced capabilities” to strike targets located more than 1,000km (621 miles) from the border.
“The flights are determined in advance with our allies, and the aircraft follow the flight plan to enable us to strike targets with meters of precision,” the source said.
The admission of receiving guidance from abroad follows multiple reports that Western personnel are providing Ukrainian troops with intelligence and information about specific targets.
The Washington Post cited a senior Ukrainian official last year as saying that Kiev’s soldiers “almost never” use advanced weapons, including US-made HIMARS rocket launchers, without receiving coordinates from the Pentagon.
On Tuesday, Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Tatarstan, a region 650km east of Moscow (400 miles), which had not previously been attacked by UAVs. One drone was aiming to hit an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, a city located roughly 1,100km (680 miles) from the border. Mayor Ramil Mullin said that the aircraft was disabled by air defenses and caused no damage.
Another drone struck a student dormitory inside the industrial zone in Elabuga, injuring 13 people. The hub hosts several companies that make high-tech equipment, including drones, according to Russian media.
Moscow has repeatedly warned that the delivery of weapons and other military aid to Kiev makes Western countries de facto direct participants in the conflict. The Russian Defense Ministry and local authorities have said that Kiev uses Western-supplied arms to indiscriminately fire at civilians.
Ukrainian military leaders know they can’t win on battlefield – Guardian
https://www.rt.com/russia/595341-ukraine-gur-attacks-guardian/ 5 Apr 24
Their army’s weakness has prompted Kiev’s strikes on Russian infrastructure, senior officers have allegedly told the London newspaper.
Ukraine has no other option but to launch attacks inside Russia, including on its oil infrastructure, because its army faces continued setbacks on the battlefield, The Guardian has reported, citing the leadership of the country’s military intelligence service, the GUR.
Officers who allegedly spoke to the British newspaper were candid about Kiev’s desperate military situation. GUR Brigadier-General Dmitry Timkov said his country was like a patient on life support.
”We are attached to a drip. We have enough drugs to stay alive. But, if the West wants us to win, we need the full treatment,” he admitted, referring to the dwindling quantities of military aid coming from Kiev’s western backers.
Major General Vadim Skibitsky, the deputy head of the GUR, admitted that a Ukrainian victory, widely promised by Kiev, is impossible at the moment. Facing multiple setbacks, the agency had “no choice” but to launch strikes deep inside Russia. He described this as a “NATO-standard procedure, known as center of gravity, or COG.”
The concept was first developed by Carl von Clausewitz, the famous Prussian general and military theorist, and essentially refers to targets that have the most value for the enemy, physically or morally.
GUR officials that spoke to the Guardian claimed credit for a recent string of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. This contradicts public statements by the head of SBU, the Ukrainian civilian security agency, Vasily Maliuk who said it was his agents who were responsible for the operations.
Both branches have been overhauled in the years since the 2014 armed coup in Kiev, with the CIA’s help, according to Western media reports. Both were allegedly involved in targeted assassinations of people deemed enemies of Ukraine, since before the conflict with Russia began in 2022.
The newspaper said GUR intends to launch a new major attack on the Crimean Bridge – and to disable it – “in the first half of 2024.” Ukraine has previously targeted the structure, twice in 2022 and 2023.
READ MORE: West helping Ukraine attack deep inside Russia – CNN
The first plot involved a powerful bomb hidden in a truck, which killed the vehicle’s driver and four other civilians in nearby cars. Moscow said GUR masterminded this attack. The second strike involved naval kamikaze drones that SBU said were deployed by its agents. That bombing killed two civilians.
Moscow has accused Kiev of engaging in terrorism as a method of war. The regime in Kiev has adopted the tactics, Russian officials are claiming, because it is unable to score victories on the battlefield.
Ukraine aid will bankrupt future US generations – congressman
https://www.rt.com/news/595344-ukraine-aid-bankrupt-us/ 5 Apr 24
America risks getting bogged down in “yet another forever war,” Republican Eli Crane has warned.
The US should end its financial support for Ukraine and instead focus on how Kiev can settle the conflict, Republican congressman Eli Crane has said. His comments come as House Speaker Mike Johnson said the chamber is likely to vote soon on providing Kiev with new funding.
Several months ago, US President Joe Biden proposed a supplemental security package that would earmark around $60 billion in assistance to Ukraine, but it has since remained stalled in Congress as Republicans demand more focus on security at the Mexican border.
On Sunday, however, Johnson signaled that the package could come up for a vote soon, with “some important innovations.” Among these, he said, is a possibility of extending a loan to Ukraine – an idea favored by GOP presidential frontrunner Donald Trump – as well as seizing Russian sovereign assets frozen in the US and transferring the proceeds to Kiev.
Since the start of the Ukraine conflict, the West has frozen around $300 billion in Russian assets, most of which are under European control. While numerous Western officials have proposed seizing the funds to finance Ukraine, many have pointed out that there is no legal basis for doing so. Moscow, for its part, has called the blocking “theft,” warning of retaliation if its funds were to be confiscated.
Some GOP members, however, have argued against aiding Kiev. In this vein, Eli Crane told Fox News on Tuesday that Washington is “funding what appears to be yet another forever war.” This effort, the Arizona congressman suggested, “will bankrupt future generations – all while disregarding our own security as our southern border remains open.”
“It’s absurd that overnighting more tax dollars to Ukraine is even a consideration. It should be totally off the table and replaced with a push for peace talks,” he added.
This sentiment was also shared by Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who suggested on Tuesday that any talk of loaning money to Ukraine sounds “absolutely ridiculous.”
“It’s… laughable to even try to tell the American people that Ukraine will ever pay us back!.. Why isn’t our government brokering peace in Ukraine?” she said.
The US has provided Ukraine with $113 billion in various forms of assistance since the start of hostilities. Meanwhile, Russia has repeatedly condemned Western arms shipments to Ukraine, saying these will only prolong the conflict, while making the West a direct participant in the hostilities.
US Secretary of State Blinken says Ukraine will be NATO member
Ukraine, if/when it enters NATO, will have “unresolved” territorial issues. Crime and the Donbass are in Russian hands and will remain in Russian hands. If Ukraine enters NATO with that being the case, border conflicts over that territory could spark war, which would then drag in NATO through Article V. Such a war would be extremely bloody and potentially escalate to nuclear armageddon.
Reuters, Thu, 04 Apr 2024 https://www.sott.net/article/490373-US-Secretary-of-State-Blinken-says-Ukraine-WILL-be-NATO-member
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday that Ukraine will eventually join NATO as support for the country remains “rock solid” among member states.
“Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Our purpose at the summit is to help build a bridge to that membership,” Blinken told reporters in Brussels.
Comment: For now, this appears to primarily be belligerent rhetoric, because at least some analysts say that Ukraine can’t join whilst involved in a conflict and with ongoing border disputes.
However, Russia has discussed creating a demilitarised zone, and so it is possible that this will compel it to neutralise Ukrainian regions even further West than they would have otherwise. Furthermore, this speaks more to the desperation of the West, and to Russia’s upper hand, which it could maintain so long as it doesn’t, precipitously, escalate the situation. And, amidst all this, the West ruins itself, its position on the global stage, and its ability to provoke the rising multipolar world.
Footage, and relevant snippet from the X post, below:
Will Tanner:
Secretary of State Blinken says that Ukraine will be joining NATO This is insane. This is insane. This is intentionally starting WWIII to help Hunter Biden’s paymasters level of insane 1) Ukraine, if/when it enters NATO, will have “unresolved” territorial issues.
1) Ukraine, if/when it enters NATO, will have “unresolved” territorial issues. Crime and the Donbass are in Russian hands and will remain in Russian hands. If Ukraine enters NATO with that being the case, border conflicts over that territory could spark war, which would then drag in NATO through Article V. Such a war would be extremely bloody and potentially escalate to nuclear armageddon.
2) This is Putin’s red line. In the 90s, when the USSR fell, America promised the Russians that NATO wouldn’t expand to the East. Then, in Russia’s weakness (created in large part by Goldman Sachs helping the oligarchs loot the country through privatization), it expanded to the East, doing just what it promised it wouldn’t, much to Russia’s chagrin. But Putin, while upset, has made it clear that Ukrainian membership in NATO is his red line that would mean war, potentially nuclear. It is utterly unacceptable and would have been like Ireland or Canada joining the Warsaw Pact. That’s why he launched the war; by “demilitarizing” Ukraine by shelling its army into oblivion and by creating a constant conflict, he wants to keep Ukraine out of NATO without going to war with NATO. He thought we wouldn’t be so dumb as to bring it into the alliance if it is fighting a war with Russia.
More NATO involvement in Ukraine doesn’t bode well, as the following highlights:
NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg, admitting that the war did start in 2014. And from that same year, 2014, NATO has been busy training and arming the Ukraine armed forces
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