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Japanese Foreign Minister’s Reports of Tunneling at Punggye-ri:  not supported by Commercial Satellite Imagery 

Japanese Foreign Minister’s Reports of Tunneling at Punggye-ri: What Commercial Satellite Imagery Shows  [excellent photos] BY: 38 NORTH, APRIL 2, 2018A  Analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., and Jack Liu.

On March 31, 2018, Japan’s Foreign Minister, Taro Kono, in a lecture in Kochi city, is reported to have said that North Korea appears to be “working hard to get ready for the next nuclear test,” and the associated reporting claims that he had added that soil had been “removed from the tunnel at the nuclear test site where past tests were conducted.” The reporting also suggested that his remarks “may be based on satellite imagery provided by the United States.”

While it is unclear whether the Foreign Minister was referring to activity observed over the last few days or from earlier work conducted after North Korea’s September 2017 nuclear test, commercial satellite imagery from March 23 shows quite a different picture: namely, that activity at the test site has been significantly reduced compared to previous months. Tunneling at the West Portal, a site not associated with any of North Korea’s previous tests, had been active earlier this year but has slowed down significantly as has other personnel and vehicular movement around the site. (It appears that only a small amount of new spoil has been excavated from the tunnel recently).[1]

Nevertheless, it is highly likely that the North Koreans continue to maintain the readiness of the nuclear test facility—one indication is recent roadwork—to allow nuclear testing in the future should Pyongyang decide to do so.

1. Precise determination of the extent of new spoil accumulation is made difficult from March 17 to 23 due to variations in the imagery deriving from different sensors on different satellites from different vendors having different look angles and slightly different amounts of melted snow together with vegetative shadowing.

 

April 4, 2018 Posted by | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Tepco facing huge costs in Fukushima disaster, but still plans to help fund restart of Tokai nuclear power station.

TEPCO, Tohoku Electric to give Japan Atomic financial boost to help restart reactor https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20180329/p2a/00m/0na/015000c,  (Mainichi Japan)  Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc. (TEPCO) and Tohoku Electric Power Co. have decided to help Japan Atomic Power Co. cover the some 174 billion yen needed to finance preparations to restart its Tokai No. 2 nuclear power station.

The hefty sum is the estimated cost of safety upgrades required by the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) to restart the plant in the village of Tokai, Ibaraki Prefecture. The NRA, which carries out mandatory plant inspections ahead of any reactor restart, has requested Japan Atomic to submit a plan to secure the necessary funds for the safety measures.

However, Japan Atomic’s sole business is nuclear power generation, and both its two reactors are currently stopped. The company has only survived this far thanks to the basic annual fee of about 100 billion yen included in its power supply contracts with Japan’s five big electric utilities. Under these conditions, it looked extremely difficult for Japan Atomic to cover the Tokai No. 2 station upgrade costs on its own, and the firm appealed to TEPCO and Tohoku Electric — both of which have power purchase contracts for electricity from the plant — for support.

TEPCO and Tohoku Electric are set to decide on March 30 to accept Japan Atomic’s plea for financial help and open discussions, and notify the power producer. Japan Atomic will in turn present the outside aid to an upcoming NRA inspection committee meeting.

Regarding the aid, TEPCO and Tohoku Electric will consider guaranteeing loans to Japan Atomic from its creditors. However, the utilities plan to make that decision once they have evaluated progress on the inspections needed for the Tokai No. 2 plant to be restarted, and examined the formal construction cost estimates for the necessary safety upgrades.

The announcement of TEPCO and Tohoku Electric’s financial backing for Japan Atomic will bolster the case for the Tokai No. 2 station’s return to operation. However, the restart faces hurdles, including obtaining local resident approval and the need for the surrounding local governments to draw up evacuation plans in case of a serious accident at the plant. Thus, even if the power station does pass the NRA inspections, there is no guarantee it can be restarted.

Furthermore, TEPCO is also liable for tremendous costs associated with dealing with the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant disaster, and the company could face criticism for offering financial aid to Japan Atomic under these conditions.

April 4, 2018 Posted by | business and costs, Japan | Leave a comment

Submarines with nuclear weapons bring nuclear war closer for India and Pakistan

India and Pakistan are quietly making nuclear war more likely, Both countries are arming their submarines with nukes. Vox, 
By Tom Hundley  Apr 2, 2018 “……….The audacity of a bloody attack inside one of the most heavily secured naval facilities in Pakistan was jarring enough. Even more jarring was the source of the attack: al-Qaeda, which claimed responsibility for the strike and praised the dead men as “martyrs.” Five more naval officers implicated in the plot were later arrested, charged with mutiny, and sentenced to death.

The Zulfiqar incident is the most serious in a long string of deadly security breaches at Pakistani military installations, from multiple attacks on nuclear facilities near Dera Ghazi Khan (2003 and 2006) and on the air force bases at Sargodha and Kamra (2007 and 2012) to the the gruesome 2014 attack on a school for the children of military officers in Peshawar that left more than 140 people dead, including 132 children.

But even if Pakistani bases have been hit before, the Zulfiqar strike is particularly alarming. That’s because Pakistan is preparing to arm its submarines and possibly some of its surface ships with nuclear weapons — which means terrorists who successfully fight their way into a Pakistani naval base in the future could potentially get their hands on some of the most dangerous weapons on earth.

The Pakistan navy is likely to soon place nuclear-tipped cruise missiles on up to three of its five French-built diesel-electric submarines. It has also reached a deal with China to buy eight more diesel-electric attack submarines that can be equipped with nuclear weapons. These are scheduled for delivery in 2028. Even more disturbing, Pakistani military authorities say they are considering the possibility of putting nuclear-tipped cruise missiles on surface vessels like the Zulfiqar.

Pakistan says its decision to add nuclear weapons to its navy is a direct response to India’s August 2016 deployment of its first nuclear submarine, the Arihant. A second, even more advanced Indian nuclear submarine, the Arighat, began sea trials last November, and four more boats are scheduled to join the fleet by 2025. That will give India a complete “nuclear triad,” which means the country will have the ability to deliver a nuclear strike by land-based missiles, by warplanes, and by submarines.

The submarine is the key component. It’s considered the most “survivable” in the event of a devastating first strike by an enemy, and thus able to deliver a retaliatory second strike. In the theology of nuclear deterrence, the point of this unholy trinity is to make nuclear war unwinnable and, therefore, pointless.

When it comes to India and Pakistan, by contrast, the new generation of nuclear submarines could increase the risk of a devastating war between the two longstanding enemies, not make it less likely. ……..

……. India and Pakistan are mortal enemies that have dozens of nuclear warheads aimed at each other. That was scary when those nukes were only on land. It’s a much scarier situation now that those nukes have been put onto submarines that move deep underwater, holding the deadliest payloads imaginable.

Tom Hundley is a senior editor at the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting.https://www.vox.com/2018/4/2/17096566/pakistan-india-nuclear-war-submarine-enemies

 

April 4, 2018 Posted by | India, Pakistan, weapons and war | Leave a comment

375 billion yen (2.86 billion euros) to dismantle Japan’s Monju breeder nuclear reactor

Le Monde 1st April 2018, [Machine Translation] By validating, on Wednesday 28 March, the project to
dismantle the Monju breeder reactor, the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (ARN)
thwarting Japan’s ambition to control the fuel cycle and adds a new nuclear
bill in the archipelago. The project involves a dismantling over thirty
years of the facility built in Tsuruga in the department of Fukui (center).
It should cost 375 billion yen (2.86 billion euros). The operation will
start as soon as July by the removal of the fuel. Then the sodium –
liquid delicate cooling to handle because flammable on contact with air –
will be removed. Disassembly will follow, with an end scheduled for 2048.
http://www.lemonde.fr/energies/article/2018/04/01/nucleaire-les-ambitions-contrariees-du-japon_5279295_1653054.html

April 4, 2018 Posted by | decommission reactor, Japan | Leave a comment

Japan warns that North Korea is digging new tunnel, “preparing for nuclear test”

North Korea is ‘preparing for nuclear test by digging tunnel’   http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/north-korea-is-preparing-for-nuclear-test-by-digging-tunnel/news-story/69fe873a70328b72addac06b9924c3d2  JAPAN has warned that North Korea is “doing everything possible” to prepare for the next nuclear test by digging a new tunnel. 

NORTH Korea is gearing up for a new nuclear test by digging an underground tunnel, Japan has warned.

The country’s Foreign Minister Taro Kono said: “[North Korea] is doing everything possible to prepare for the next nuclear test: it is currently extracting earth from an underground tunnel where the previous test was carried out.”

The minister said previously the secretive state “does not reveal its intentions to the outside world in terms of denuclearisation”.

The claim comes just days after Kim Jong-un promised to bin his beloved nuclear weapons if he could be guaranteed security and US military threats against North Korea were to stop.

At the end of last year the tyrant declared his country a fully fledged nuclear power after launching a new missile he claimed was capable of hitting anywhere on the planet.

Nuclear devices are often tested underground to prevent radioactive material released in the explosion reaching the surface and contaminating the environment — this method also ensures a degree of secrecy.

The release of radiation from an underground nuclear explosion — an effect known as “venting” — would give away clues to the technical composition and size of a country’s device.

A test site is carefully geologically surveyed to ensure suitability — usually in a place well away from population centres.

The nuclear device is placed into a drilled hole or tunnel usually between 200-800m below the surface, and several metres wide. Last year a tunnel at an underground North Korean nuclear site was said to have collapsed.

Up to 200 people were thought to have died at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the northeast of the country.

The accident was believed to have been caused by Kim Jong-un’s sixth nuclear test which weakened the mountain, according to the report.

Former British Defence Secretary Sir Michael Fallon previously warned that Britain is at risk from North Korea’s long-range nuclear missile program as some cities are closer than American targets.

Revised estimates suggest the total number of missiles the rogue state has is believed to be between 13 and 21.

And the regime is estimated to have at least four nuclear warheads.

Satellite images of Jong-un’s main missile test site in August revealed North Korea’s weapons were more powerful than initially thought.

Careful analysis of North Korean tests sites, using images from Planet, reveal the regime has been gradually building up the size of its missiles.

April 2, 2018 Posted by | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Closing down of Fukushima nuclear power plant has skyrocketed to US$75 billion

Oil Price 30th March 2018, The decommissioning of the Fukushima nuclear power plant will cost an
annual US$2 billion (220 billion yen) until 2021, an unnamed source told
the Japan Times. Half of the money will be used to tackle the radioactive
water buildup at the site of the plant and for removing radioactive fuel
from the fuel pools. A small amount of funds will be used to research ways
of retreating melted fuel from the reactors that got damaged during the
2011 tsunami disaster.

The US$6 billion for the three years is only part of
the total estimated cost for taking Fukushima out of operation. The total
decommissioning tally came in at US$75 billion (8 trillion yen), as
estimated by the specially set up Nuclear Damage Compensation and
Decommissioning Facilitation Corp (NDF).

That’s four times more than the initial estimate of the costs around the NPP’s decommissioning. Now theoperator of Fukushima, Tepco, and the NDF are due to submit their financial plan for the facility to the government for approval by the energy industry
minister. In addition to the US$6 billion allocated for the cleanup, Tepco
will spend another US$1.88 billion (200 billion yen) on preparing to start
extracting the melted fuel from the three damaged reactors. This seems to
be the biggest challenge for the cleanup efforts because of the still high
radiation levels as well as technical difficulties. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Total-Tally-For-Fukushima-Decommission-Is-75-Billion.html

April 2, 2018 Posted by | Fukushima continuing | Leave a comment

China expanding its nuclear marketing overseas, with the help of Bill Gates

 

Chinese nuclear giant continues to expand overseas cooperation, 2018-03-03  Editor: Xiang Bo BEIJING, March 3 (Xinhua) — China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), one of the country’s two leading nuclear power companies, is stepping up its overseas cooperation, the chairperson said Saturday.

Progress is being made in cooperation with CNNC’s local partners in countries like Pakistan, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Ghana and the United States, CNNC chairperson Wang Shoujun said on the sidelines of the annual session of the country’s top political advisory body…….

Last year, the CNNC signed a joint venture agreement with TerraPower, LLC to form the Global Innovation Nuclear Energy Technology Co., Ltd. to work together on the Travelling Wave Reactor technology, marking a new stage in China-U.S. nuclear cooperation, Wang added. ……http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-03/03/c_137013831.htm

April 2, 2018 Posted by | China, marketing | Leave a comment

USA Commerce Department sanctioned seven Pakistani companies – alleges links to nuclear trade

Axios 29th March 2018,  The Commerce Department this week sanctioned seven Pakistani companies for
alleged links to nuclear trade. Their place on an “Entity List”
requires them to obtain special licenses to do business with the U.S. This
move follows other U.S. penalties against Pakistan, including a successful
push to put Pakistan on a “gray list” of countries not doing enough to
stem terrorist financing and a freeze on all U.S. security assistance to
Pakistan.

But Commerce’s action should not be seen as part of the
existing campaign to pressure Pakistan to crack down harder on terrorists.
Why it matters: Commerce’s move does underscore Washington’s concerns
about Pakistan’s nuclear proliferation record — even as nuclear
watchdog groups cite improvements in Pakistan’s nuclear security.
https://www.axios.com/nuclear-security-worries-drive-latest-us-penalties-on-pakistan-1522259525-d5bea2f2-a2aa-47e6-a5e8-b376e8e3853a.html

April 2, 2018 Posted by | Pakistan, secrets,lies and civil liberties, USA | Leave a comment

Toshiba to own Nuclear Fuel Industries, join Hitachi Ltd. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries ?

Japan News 31st March 2018, Toshiba Corp. said Friday that it will take full control of Nuclear Fuel
Industries Ltd., a Japanese nuclear fuel supplier, by the end of June.
Toshiba, which last October agreed to acquire 52 percent of Nuclear Fuel
Industries from Westinghouse Electric Co., newly signed agreements to
purchase the remaining stake from Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. and
Furukawa Electric Co.

Sumitomo Electric and Furukawa Electric own 24
percent each of Nuclear Fuel Industries. Toshiba’s move to fully own
Nuclear Fuel Industries is expected to help accelerate its talks with
Hitachi Ltd. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. on integrating their
respective nuclear fuel operations in Japan.

Nuclear fuel suppliers owned by Japanese nuclear plant makers have been struggling with sluggish demand
as many nuclear plants in the country remain suspended. Toshiba, Hitachi
and Mitsubishi Heavy previously aimed to merge their domestic nuclear fuel
operations in spring last year, but the talks have been stalled due to
Toshiba’s financial crisis.  http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0004340845

April 2, 2018 Posted by | business and costs, Japan | Leave a comment

Nuclear colonialism: nuclear nations keen to sell uneconomic nuclear power – e.g South Korea to United Arab Emirates

Arab world’s first nuclear reactor completed in UAE, in cooperation with South Korea, Arab Weekly    1 April 18 LONDON – Construction of the Arab world’s first commercial nuclear reactor has been completed in the United Arab Emirates. The plant is part of the country’s long-term strategy to decrease its reliance on fossil fuels.

The Barakah nuclear power plant, in western Abu Dhabi, is a joint project between the UAE’s Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC) and South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO).

UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan toured the $20 billion facility with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and announced on March 26 the completion of the construction“This is a historic moment in our nation’s development as we celebrate the construction completion of Unit 1 of the Barakah nuclear energy plant,” Sheikh Mohammed said……

Emirati officials said Barakah was the world’s largest single nuclear project. ……https://thearabweekly.com/arab-worlds-first-nuclear-reactor-completed-uae-cooperation-south-korea

 

April 2, 2018 Posted by | marketing, South Korea, United Arab Emirates | Leave a comment

Kim Jong Un’s complete turnaround in tactics: will it result in peace, or not?

But together, the Kim-Moon meeting serves more as a prelude to the Trump-Kim summit. And if those talks fail, Harry Kazianis, an Asia security expert at the Center for the National Interest think tank, thinks the chances of war might increase.

“We are putting all of our eggs in the summit basket,” he told me. “This is the ultimate Hail Mary.”

The North Korea nuclear standoff: how we went from “fire and fury” to talks in under a year Vox,  “North Korea has 100 percent changed its tactics.” By Alex Wardalex.ward@vox.com  

Last year, it seemed like war between the United States and North Korea was a real possibility.

“The United States has great strength and patience, but if it is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea,” President Donald Trumpsaid at the United Nations on September 19, 2017. “Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime,” he continued, using his favored nickname for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Flash-forward to March 29, 2018, when Pyongyang and Seoul announced that Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in will meet face to face in April for talks. It’ll be only the third in-person meeting between the heads of both countries, and the first since 2007. But that’s not all: The Kim-Moon summit will lay the groundwork for an even more historic meeting between Kim and Trump sometime in either May or June, although it remains unscheduled.

How did we get here? How did North Korea and the US go from talk of potential nuclear warto actual, well, talks? Here’s one explanation: Experts tell me the war threats may have actually scared leaders like Trump.

“I’d like to believe that while President Trump talks tough,” Leon Panetta, the former defense secretary and CIA director, told me, “deep down, he also is concerned about involving this country in another war that is going to cost thousands of lives.”

But others simply give credit to North Korea. “North Korea has 100 percent changed its tactics,” Sue Mi Terry, a North Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, told me. “I think this is all North Korea actually driving this.”

Whatever the reason, top officials want to take advantage of this moment. “We must not let this historic opportunity for diplomacy go to waste,” Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, told me.

What follows is a guide to how the two countries went from a nuclear standoff to a rare moment of cautious optimism.

Kim pivots from bombs to talks………..

The coming Trump-Kim summit made the South Korea meeting possible

On March 8, South Korean envoys who had just met with Kim Jong Un relayed a message to Trump: The North Korean leader wanted to meet with him. Trump reportedly accepted the offer on the spot.

The president even tweeted about his excitement.

Moon, the South Korean president, seemed relieved by the news. He campaigned in part on easing tensions with North Korea and continually advocated for a diplomatic solution to the US-North Korea standoff. After Trump agreed to meet with Kim, Moon offered three-way talks between him and the other two leaders.

That, however, is not in the works. Instead, Moon and Kim finally set a date for their face-to-face meeting in April. But Terry, the North Korea expert, told me she doesn’t expect much from the Kim-Moon summit. Instead, she said “South Korea’s chief goal is to set up that [the] Trump-Kim meeting goes well.”

As for Kim, he likely wants a greater sense of how badly Moon wants to strike some sort of deal.

Kim is already preparing for both encounters. This week, he took a secret trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Oriana Skylar Mastro, a China expert at Georgetown University, told me in an interview that Kim wanted to ensure he had China’s support ahead of talks with the US. Having Beijing’s backing could help Kim not concede too much in talks with Moon and Trump.

Kim needs the help. Trump will want Kim to give up his nuclear weapons, but experts are unanimous that Kim won’t agree to do so. Having China’s support allows the North Korean leader to feel more comfortable defying the American president.

“I think the North Korean leader made some very smart moves and has put himself in a good position,” Panetta, the former Obama Cabinet official, told me. “He has given himself greater leverage ahead of these meetings.”

Put together, the Kim-Moon meeting serves more as a prelude to the Trump-Kim summit. And if those talks fail, Harry Kazianis, an Asia security expert at the Center for the National Interest think tank, thinks the chances of war might increase.

“We are putting all of our eggs in the summit basket,” he told me. “This is the ultimate Hail Mary.” https://www.vox.com/2018/3/30/17176316/north-korea-south-trump-fire-fury-moon

 

March 31, 2018 Posted by | North Korea, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Increased activity at North Korean nuclear site

Renewed activity at North Korean nuclear site sparks fears, UNNERVING satellite images of a North Korean nuclear site suggest that Kim Jong-un may be expanding his nuclear program. Eric Talmadge, news.com.au  APMARCH 29, 2018

INCREASED activity at a North Korean nuclear site has once again caught the attention of analysts and renewed concerns about the complexities of denuclearisation talks.

The satallite imagery, taken last month, were released as United States President Donald Trump prepares for a summit with Kim Jong-un in the coming weeks.

Yesterday, Xinhua News revealed that during a secret visit to China, Mr Kim had told Chinese President Xi Jinping that he was ready for talks with the US about nuclear weapons, promising to give up his nuclear arsenal.

But observers believe these images suggest the North has begun preliminary testing of an experimental light water reactor and possibly brought another reactor online at its Yongbyon Nuclear Research Centre.

Both could be used to produce the fissile materials needed for nuclear bombs.

The findings come at a particularly sensitive time.

Trump and Kim are planning to meet by May, according to officials, and denuclearisation will likely be the biggest topic on their agenda if they do meet………..http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/renewed-activity-at-north-korean-nuclear-site-sparks-fears/news-story/d0f03838c7d7460b5ccda2288975d54b

March 28, 2018 Posted by | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

At Social Book Café Hachidorisha in Hiroshima – hibakusha continue to give testimony about the nuclear bombing

Where Nuclear Survivors Tell Their Stories, Japan Forward, Oliver Trapnell,  Blog, In My Part of Japan March 29, 2018 

Views on nuclear issues are voiced strongly in Japan, where nuclear devastation has had a direct impact on thousands of lives not only in Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Fukushima, but also in cases such as the Daigo Fukuryū Maru, the Number Five Lucky Dragon fishing boat whose story inspired the Godzilla movies.

The importance of raising awareness of issues surrounding nuclear weapons and energy has increased in recent years as the hibakusha or nuclear bomb survivors age and the number of survivors decline.

At the Social Book Café Hachidorisha (2F, 2-43-2 Dohashi-cho, Naka-ku, Hiroshima-shi) close to the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum, there are three events every month—on the 6th, 16th, and 26th—at which customers can speak to hibakusha. The testimonials allow listeners to hear from those with first-hand experience of the atrocities, including the one that occurred in Hiroshima on August 6, 1945……….

 

Patrons can also share their own experience and ask questions in order to open the discussion on difficult topics relevant to Japan and the rest of the world. The small scale of these events allows the audience to connect on a more emotional level, which in turn provides them with a greater appreciation of this tragic moment in history.

 

The café itself is a bright, vibrant space with stunning handcrafted wooden tables, chairs, and even kotatsu. It also contains a variety of non-fiction books, many specifically about Hiroshima………https://japan-forward.com/where-nuclear-survivors-tell-their-stories/

March 28, 2018 Posted by | Japan, weapons and war | Leave a comment

China’s progress in nuclear power is not as sure as it used to be

Is China losing interest in nuclear power?  China Dialogue Feng Hao  19.03.2018  Slowing demand for electricity and competition from renewables have halted new reactor approvals.Globally, the outlook for new, large nuclear reactors is gloomy, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook. A lot of countries have backed away from nuclear power in recent years due to concerns over public safety, cost and the complex challenge of getting plants built.

This year, five reactors are expected to come online in China, with the IEA predicting that by 2030 the country will overtake the United States as the world’s biggest generator of nuclear power.

Pushing nuclear

Increasingly, China’s decision to move ahead with new nuclear seems at odds with other countries that are abandoning the technology in favour of other low carbon options, such as wind and solar.

Xu Jiangfeng is a researcher at the Planning Research Centre of the China National Offshore Oil Corporation’s Research Institute. He told chinadialogue that the government’s concern with energy security has resulted in a diverse mix of energy resources and technologies being pursued, including nuclear……….

Approvals freeze

Policymakers may cite various strategic reasons for backing nuclear power but there is a question mark hanging over the sector’s future growth.

China has 20 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity under construction but plans for additional capacity are being delayed. A 2020 target of 58 gigawatts of installed nuclear capacity now looks out of reach.

The National Energy Administration did not approve any new nuclear plants between 2016 and 2017. In 2017, only three new reactors started operating.

Reasons for the shift, according to Shi, include mixed attitudes towards new nuclear power within government, and the over-supply that’s affecting China’s power generation sector.

As China’s economic growth has eased, so too has the growth in electricity demand. In 2015, electricity consumption rose just 0.5%, the lowest in 40 years.

“Work out supply and demand and you can see that the market is unable to absorb any more nuclear power,” Kang Junjie, chief engineer with Dongdian Wanwei Technology (Beijing) told chinadialogue.

This leaves little room for expansion of electricity generation, meaning fierce competition between nuclear, solar, wind and hydropower. Globally, solar and wind are replacing nuclear power as the first choice for new power generation. This is true in China, too.

Cost is a key factor: the earlier nuclear power plants are now in the mid-to-late stages of their lifecycle, with operational and maintenance costs rising, according to Kang Junjie. Meanwhile, renewables are in the ascendant, with costs continuing to fall.

Analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that the cost of power from China’s onshore wind and solar will drop below that of coal in 2019 and 2021, respectively, suggesting that the cost advantage of nuclear power over renewables will only last a few more years………….  https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/10506-Is-China-losing-interest-in-nuclear-power-?mc_cid=e08503abda&mc_eid=da6e209b80

March 27, 2018 Posted by | business and costs, China, politics | Leave a comment

How America could come to terms with a nuclear-armed North Korea

The Strategic Wisdom of Accommodating North Korea’s Nuclear Status

What if Washington came to terms with a nuclear North Korea but remained on the peninsula? The Diplomat , By Graham W. Jenkins, March 28, 2018  

As the North Korean “crisis” continues to unfold, any negotiations, including the possible (albeit unlikely) Trump-Kim summit, represent a significant strategic opportunity for coming decades — even if today’s official policy goals are never achieved.

Pyongyang and Washington must come to terms with two realities: North Korea will not surrender its nuclear arsenal; the United States will not withdraw its support for South Korea. But once the U.S. policymaking apparatus accepts this, the aperture of the possible widens. By tacitly acquiescing to North Korea’s nuclear status — and in the process, securing concessions on advance warning and notifications, among other subjects — the United States could partially supplant China as a patron (in a limited sense), simultaneously shoring up peninsular stability and presenting China with a new security challenge on its own border, requiring the diversion of forces and materiel……..

There are significant drawbacks to outright recognition of North Korea as a nuclear state. Even though by withdrawing from the NPT, North Korea did not violate international law per se, openly admitting that any country can a) exercise Article X and withdraw from the NPT and then b) develop and test a nuclear arsenal, without suffering consequences for it, sets a troubling precedent, to put it mildly. But it is still possible to pursue a policy of splitting the needle: quietly accepting (not officially, but through nonofficial or track II diplomatic efforts) North Korea’s nuclear status while refusing to officially condone it. Such a tacit form of acceptance would also allow the United States to potentially extract concessions from Pyongyang and allow it to maintain its nuclear arsenal, all of which would serve to reduce its reliance on China as a client state, and instead allow it to chart a more independent path, but one in which the United States, China, and South Korea would still be able to deter any major crises.

……… It’s important, too, to condition any U.S. acknowledgement on North Korea making concessions. There is a broad range of requests that would represent positive policy outcomes, depending on the executive branch’s preferences. Advance notice of missile and nuclear testing (or even adherence to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty), establishing a “hotline” linking Pyongyang, Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo for crisis management, visible human rights changes like work camp prisoner releases or allowing humanitarian workers into the country, withdrawing artillery from the Kaesong Heights – some combination of these or others should be sufficient to justify changing U.S. policy toward North Korea’s nuclear weapons.

It’s rare that a nation is presented with a win-win-win scenario, but if bold enough to accept this manageable additional risk, the United States can emerge from this missile crisis in a stronger strategic position than before, with an adversary forced to reinforce an additional front and with our own hand strengthened. While the Trump-Kim summit – and indeed, any diplomatic efforts whatsoever – might now be a flight of fancy, with the ascension of John Bolton to national security advisor, negotiations remain the single best means of resolving the current Korean crisis. The United States stands to gain much: not least of all, avoiding a needless war.

Graham W. Jenkins is an all-source intelligence analyst with a federal contractor, conducting structured analysis and assessments in support of the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence. https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/the-strategic-wisdom-of-accommodating-north-koreas-nuclear-status/

March 27, 2018 Posted by | North Korea, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

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