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Homeland Security Secretary says risk of North Korea nuclear missiles to America within 4 years

Kelly: Trump will face nuclear North Korea in this term http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/330107-kelly-trump-will-deal-with-nuclear-north-korea-before-his-second-term  Department of Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly said Sunday that President Trump will face a nuclear-armed North Korea with missiles that could reach the United States in this term.

“I think Mr. Trump will be dealing with this in real terms before he starts his second term,” Kelly told CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Kelly refused to answer host Dana Bash’s question over whether or not the U.S. military could shoot down a missile from North Korea, telling Bash that the information is classified. Kelly did say the United States will be “at grave risk” when a North Korean missile can reach its shores.

“The instant that happens, this country is at grave risk,” said Kelly.

North Korea earlier this month failed to launch a ballistic missile on its east coast. The launch came amidst mounting tensions between the U.S. and North Korea, as the Trump administration continues talks with China over how to curb North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

April 24, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

“Military option” against Noth Korea would bring unacceptable risk

North Korea risk too high for military option: Robert Litwak https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/04/19/north-korea-nuclear-risk-too-high-military-option-robert-litwak-column/100615092/ Robert S. Litwak April 19, 2017 

North Korea crossed the nuclear threshold a decade ago when it conducted its first atomic test. The precipitant of the current crisis is that the Pyongyang regime is now on the brink of vastly expanding its small nuclear arsenal. Left on its trajectory, by 2020, North Korea could have a nuclear stockpile of 100 warheads that can be mounted on long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States.

The contrast between North Korea’s atomic arsenal (which could, incredibly, approach half the size of Britain’s) and its paltry economy (a gross domestic product of about $17 billion, comparable with Asheville, N.C.) is jarring. North Korea is essentially a failed state on the verge of a nuclear breakout. And this totalitarian state is run by a dynastic cult — the Kim family.

A North Korean ability to strike the U.S. homeland would be a game changer. Vice President Pence declared in South Korea on Monday that the Obama administration’s policy of “strategic patience” was over — but he did not indicate what would follow.

Strategic patience had essentially resulted in acquiescence as North Korea built up its nuclear arsenal and made substantial progress in miniaturizing warheads and acquiring an intercontinental ballistic missile capability. In response, the United Nations and the United States have imposed still stricter sanctions on the Kim regime. But sanctions are not a strategy.

With North Korea perilously close to becoming a major nuclear power, America should pivot to serious diplomacy. Since the end of the Cold War, when the North Korean atomic challenge arose, U.S. hard-liners have eschewed diplomacy toward this “rogue state” because they view it as tantamount to appeasement.

The alternative to diplomacy — the much discussed military option “on the table” — has essentially been off the table because it runs the catastrophic risk of spiraling into a second (this time, nuclear) Korean war. No U.S. president could authorize even a “limited” strike on a missile site and discount this escalatory risk. When the United States can’t bomb and won’t negotiate, it is in fact acquiescing to a continued North Korean buildup. That unsatisfactory prospect reinforces the case for transactional diplomacy through coercive engagement to block North Korea’s current disastrous course.

Though a full rollback of North Korea’s atomic program is not a realistic goal, transactional diplomacy to freeze its capabilities at their current level might be attainable. This would make the best of a bad situation: When zero warheads is not an option on the table, an agreement capping North Korea at 20 nuclear weapons is better than an unconstrained program that hits 100 warheads by 2020. And a freeze would preclude the additional testing that North Korea still needs to master miniaturization and reliable long-range missiles.

Why should diplomacy succeed this time when it has failed in the past? New conditions that change China’s strategic calculus. Until now, Beijing has been lackadaisical in its enforcement of sanctions and has declared that Pyongyang was Washington’s problem. But a North Korea with a large atomic arsenal and ballistic missiles capable of striking the U.S. homeland would be a game changer. That’s true not only for America but also for China, where risky consequences could include the possibility of South Korea and Japan reassessing their own non-nuclear intentions.

Transactional diplomacy would decouple the nuclear issue from regime change. It would create the conditions for success by identifying a point of near-term optimization among the parties.

A freeze would permit Pyongyang to retain a minimum deterrent and the Kim family regime. For Beijing, it would preserve a strategic buffer state and avert the adverse strategic consequences of a nuclear-armed North Korea. And for Washington, a near-term interim agreement freezing North Korean capabilities would prevent a breakout and be characterized as the first step toward long-term denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

This analytical option should be put to the diplomatic test. Otherwise, we are left with the bad options of bombing or acquiescing.

Robert S. Litwak is vice president for scholars and academic relations at the Wilson Center and director of International Security Studies. He is the author of Preventing North Korea’s Nuclear Breakout.

April 21, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

North Korean envoy at UN warns of nuclear war possibility: USA ready to do a pre-emptive strike

North Korean envoy at UN warns of nuclear war possibility | 17 April 2017 | North Korea’s UN deputy representative, Kim In Ryong, on Monday unleashed at a hastily called UN press conference a torrent of threats, war scenarios and rhetoric aimed at the United States. The press event was held hours after US Vice President Mike Pence visited the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea. Pence warned North Korea not to test the resolve of the United States “or the strength of our military forces.” In New York, North Korea’s UN ambassador condemned the US naval buildup in the waters off the Korean Peninsula, plus the US missile attacks on Syria. Kim said, “It has created a dangerous situation in which thermonuclear war may break out at any moment on the peninsula and poses a serious threat to world peace and security.”
U.S. May Launch Strike If North Korea Reaches for Nuclear Trigger | 13 April 2017 | The U.S. is prepared to launch a preemptive strike with conventional weapons against North Korea should officials become convinced that North Korea is about to follow through with a nuclear weapons test, multiple senior U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News. North Korea has warned that a “big event” is near, and U.S. officials say signs point to a nuclear test that could come as early as this weekend. The intelligence officials told NBC News that the U.S. has positioned two destroyers capable of shooting Tomahawk cruise missiles in the region, one just 300 miles from the North Korean nuclear test site.

April 19, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, politics international, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

North Korea simply sees nuclear weapons as essential for its survival

“At the end of the day, the North Koreans believe that their nuclear weapons are too foundational to their survival and to the survival of their regime.”

WITH the whole world staring daggers at North Korea, why is it so intent on harnessing the very weapon that could destroy it? Charis Chang news.com.au, 18 Apr 17, 

Another factor that has added pressure to the situation is the political turmoil in South Korea.

The US made a deal with South Korea to place a powerful anti-missile system in the country that could intercept and destroy missiles fired from North Korea.

But this deal was placed under a cloud earlier this year when then-president Park Geun-hye was impeached for corruption and then removed from office.

The man seen as a frontrunner to replace her, Moon Jae-in, does not seem supportive of continuing with the deal, and said he wanted to review the decision. While the presidential race has since narrowed, if Moon was elected on May 9, it could weaken the US bargaining position.Moon has said he wants to met with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang as a priority over going to Washington, indicating he favours working with the dictator.

This may calm tensions in the area but could allow North Korea to continue developing its nuclear weapons.

With South Korea currently under interim leadership favourable to the US, Prof Blaxland said there was a “certain moment of opportunity” for the US to act.

Last month the US started installing its advanced missile defence system called THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) in South Korea, despite some saying it should wait until the presidential elections were held.

US President Donald Trump has also ordered a naval strike group, led by the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier, to the region, though the vessels remain a long way from the peninsula………

CAN CHINA HELP?  Many countries have been looking to China to try and solve the impasse, saying it should exert its influence over North Korea to get it to fall in line. But Brad Glosserman said the belief the Chinese could force an outcome in Pyongyang was a mistake.

He pointed to the US relationship with Israel as an example, saying despite all that America does to help the Jewish state, it is unable to force Israel to do what it wants. “The problem with North Korea’s relationship with the world, is the North’s relationship with the US,” he said.

“What China believes is that if there is to be a resolution, it must be a resolution between Washington and Pyongyang. “Beijing’s only real role is to facilitate that task, the idea that they can put the screws on … and deliver North Korea is something that the Chinese don’t believe and I don’t believe.”

SHOULD NORTH KOREA BE ALLOWED TO HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS?

If the US did become open to the idea of a nuclear-armed North Korea, Mr Glosserman said this would place stress on the US relationship with South Korea and also with Japan.

“It undermines the integrity of the non-proliferation treaty,” he said.

“I believe North Korea went nuclear because Pakistan went nuclear and got away with it. And I’m willing to bet that if North Korea goes nuclear, Iran will go nuclear and if Iran goes nuclear who knows what other dominoes will fall?.

“If North Korea is allowed to become a nuclear weapons state, I would suggest South Koreans might be encouraged to do the same and the Japanese will actively be pushed to do the same.

“There are a number of nuclear dominoes that have the potential to fall.”

HOW CAN WE STOP THEM?

According to the New York Times, the US has been trying to sabotage North Korea’s development of missile program using cyber and electronic strikes.

This may even have been why a ballistic missile launched on Saturday was unsuccessful. Lately, President Donald Trump is reportedly considering “utterly destroying” Kim Jong-un’s nuclear sites using pre-emptive strikes.

But Mr Glosserman said he didn’t think the US knew where North Korea’s warheads or missiles were located.

“The idea that we can intimidate the North Koreans strikes me as being a bit of a stretch,” he has previously said.

But while it may be hard for the US to take out North Korea’s weapons stockpile if it doesn’t know where to target, the use of a military option was still a possibility………

Mr Glosserman said the countries involved needed to be very careful as diplomacy was everyone’s preferred outcome.

Unfortunately Mr Glosserman said he didn’t think a deal could ultimately be brokered.

He said the US was demanding that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons but this is something they were not willing to do. The Chinese have asked for a freeze in activity but this doesn’t get rid of what the weapons they have already got.

“At the end of the day, the North Koreans believe that their nuclear weapons are too foundational to their survival and to the survival of their regime.,” he said.

“No one has come up with good terms by which we can at least begin a process to cap then roll back North Korea’s nuclear weapons.”http://www.news.com.au/technology/why-its-so-important-for-north-korea-to-develop-nuclear-weapons/news-story/ae936c8099fdcfb137860260afcee844

Email: charis.chang@news.com.au | Twitter: @charischang2

April 19, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

The flaw in Trump’s North Korea sabre-rattling

Trump’s North Korea sabre-rattling has a flaw: Kim Jong-un has nothing to lose

Strategy of sending in the US navy and attacking Syria and Afghanistan likely only to boost Pyongyang’s nuclear resolve, Guardian,  in Beijing and  in Tokyo, 16 APR 17, In the lead-up to North Korea’s latest missile test, Donald Trump had battled to convince Kim Jong-un he was picking a fight with the wrong guy.

The US president pounded Syria with 59 Tomahawk missiles and then ordered a naval “armada” into the waters around the Korean peninsula. He dropped the “mother of all bombs” on eastern Afghanistan and used Twitter to hammer home his message.

“North Korea is looking for trouble,” the US president tweeted last week as Kim’s technicians made the final preparations for Sunday’s botched but nevertheless defiant test.

But experts say Pyongyang’s latest act has underlined the futility of the billionaire’s efforts to bully Kim Jong-un into abandoning his nuclear ambitions.

“There is a problem with playing the military threat [card] with North Korea because they are inclined to call the bluff,” said John Delury, a North Korea expert from Yonsei University in Seoul. “I’m not saying they tested because of the threats. But bringing a naval strike group doesn’t help if your goal is to put off a test. If anything you are increasing the odds.”…….

Delury claimed Trump’s sabre-rattling rhetoric and erratic use of force would only strengthen Kim’s determination to develop an effective nuclear deterrent that might spare him the fate of Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi.

“It’s really just playing Pyongyang’s game. It is a waste of time and the Trump administration should move onto a more promising avenue to solve the problem … Since they have nothing to lose and we have everything to lose, they win every game of chicken.”

Leonid Petrov, a North Korea specialist at the Australian National University, said that with its latest missile launch “the message from North Korea is that despite US posturing they are not going to abandon their missile programme”.

Petrov said he was not surprised Kim Jong-un had chosen not to commemorate the 105th anniversary of the birth of the founder of North Korea, his grandfather Kim Il-sung, with an anticipated sixth nuclear test.

“Given the physical damage that would cause to nearby areas, it would have been unusual for a loyal, filial grandson to order a nuclear test on such an auspicious day,” he said.

But when that test does come it would prove the day of reckoning for Trump’s more aggressive approach towards North Korea. “If the US responds with an attack, that would confirm Kim’s claims that he is surrounded by hostile forces that are determined to carry out a pre-emptive strike,” Petrov said.

“The moment of truth for the US will be whether it strikes [in response to a nuclear test] and provokes a resumption of the Korean war at the expense of South Korean security, or stands down and betrays its weakness.”

“What would the US do? Withdraw, hang around or strike?” Petrov asked. “The ball is in the Americans’ court.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/16/north-korea-missile-test-donald-trump-kim-jong-un-has-nothing-to-lose

April 17, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Simultaneous North Korean and American nuclear weapons tests. Double standards?

America’s Peace Making Nukes vs. North Korea’s WMD: Simultaneous Nuclear Weapons Tests by U.S. and North Korea, By  Global Research, April 15, 2017 Double Standards? Whereas President Donald Trump threatens to wage a preemptive attack against North Korea if Pyongyang goes ahead with its nuclear weapons tests, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and the US Air Force have announced the carrying out of tests of America’s controversial state of the art B61-12 gravity nuclear bomb.

April 17, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

North Korea’s steady march towards a missile that can hit America

Month-by-month North Korea edges closer to a missile that can hit America http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/monthbymonth-north-korea-edges-closer-to-a-missile-that-can-hit-america/news-story/d524ea3d65ef15906bb1b1439923fb5dAPRIL 16, 2017 ANALYSIS

April 17, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Pre-emptive strike by USA on North Korea is on the cards, if North Korea conducts nuclear weapons test,

US prepared to launch pre-emptive strike if North Korea conducts nuclear weapons test, reports say, news.com.au, 14 Apr 17 Senior US intelligence officials have reportedly told NBC News the US is prepared to launch a pre-emptive strike with conventional weapons against North Korea if the country appears set to follow through with a nuclear weapons test.

Speculation has been building that the rogue state could be planning to conduct its sixth nuclear test, with reports of activity at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site ahead of Saturday’s 105th anniversary of the birth of the country’s founder Kim Il-Sung.

Citing intelligence officials, NBC News reported that the US had positioned two destroyers in the region, one around 480km from the nuclear test site. The destroyers are capable of shooting Tomahawk cruise missiles.

 However, officials told the broadcaster any implementation of the preemptive plans depends on consent of the South Korean government, as any move could provoke an attack by the North.

“US officials, mindful of such concerns here, repeatedly reaffirmed that (the US) will closely discuss with South Korea its North Korea-related measures,” foreign minister Yun Byung told a special parliamentary meeting.

US President Donald Trump today vowed that the “problem” of North Korea “will be taken care of”.”North Korea is a problem, the problem will be taken care of,” Mr Trump said.

Separately on Twitter he expressed confidence China, Pyongyang’s sole ally, would “properly deal with North Korea.”But, “if they are unable to do so, the U.S., with its allies, will! U.S.A.”

Asked on Thursday whether the bomb dropped in Afghanistan – a GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb better known by its nickname, the “Mother Of All Bombs” – was a warning to Pyongyang, Mr Trump demurred. “I don’t know if this sends a message to North Korea,” he said. “It doesn’t make any difference if it does or not.”

The Voice of America, quoting US government and other sources, said North Korea “has apparently placed a nuclear device in a tunnel and it could be detonated Saturday AM Korea time.”

A US monitoring group, 38North, has described the Punggye-ri test site as “primed and ready.”

The North is under multiple sets of United Nations sanctions over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs…….http://www.9news.com.au/world/2017/04/14/09/06/us-prepared-to-launch-pre-emptive-strike-if-north-korea-conducts-nuclear-weapons-test-reports-say

April 15, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, politics international, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

North Korea has threatened “nuclear thunderbolts” at the first sign of a US preemptive strike

North Korea threatens ‘nuclear thunderbolts’ as US and China finally work together, Business Insider,  ALEX LOCKIE APR 14, 2017  With the world on edge after reports that the US and North Korea are on the verge of war, North Korea has threatened “nuclear thunderbolts” at the first sign of a US preemptive strike while also slamming China for cooperating with the West, according to NKNews.com.

April 15, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, politics international | 1 Comment

China warning North Korea against escalating tensions to an ‘irreversible’ stage

China warns North Korea tension has to be stopped from reaching ‘irreversible’ stage, SMH, 14 Apr 17,  Beijing/Pyongyang: China said on Friday tension over North Korea had to be stopped from reaching an “irreversible and unmanageable stage, SMH, ” as a US aircraft carrier group steamed towards the region amid fears the North may conduct a sixth nuclear weapons test on Saturday.Concern has grown since the US Navy fired 59 Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian airfield last week in response to a deadly gas attack, raising questions about US President Donald Trump’s plans for North Korea, which has conducted missile and nuclear tests in defiance of UN and unilateral sanctions.

The United States has warned that a policy of “strategic patience” is over. US Vice President Mike Pence travels to South Korea on Sunday on a long-planned 10-day trip to Asia.

China, North Korea’s sole major ally and neighbour which nevertheless opposes its weapons programme, has called for talks leading to the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.

“We call on all parties to refrain from provoking and threatening each other, whether in words or actions, and not let the situation get to an irreversible and unmanageable stage,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters in Beijing.

“Once a war really happens, the result will be nothing but losing all round and no one could become a winner,” Mr Wang told reporters in Beijing on Friday, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

North Korea denounced the United States for bringing “huge nuclear strategic assets” to the region as the Carl Vinson strike group with a flag-ship nuclear-powered aircraft carrier steamed closer, and said it stood ready to strike back.

“The Trump administration, which made a surprise guided cruise-missile strike on Syria on April 6, has entered the path of open threat and blackmail,” the North’s KCNA news agency quoted the military as saying in a statement………

North Korea, still technically at war with the South after their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a treaty, has on occasion conducted missile or nuclear tests to coincide with big political events and often threatens the United States, South Korea and Japan.

On Saturday, it marks the “Day of the Sun”, the 105th anniversary of the birth of state founder Kim Il Sung.

US ally South Korea warned against any North Korean “provocation”, such as a nuclear or missile test.

“There is certain to be powerful punitive measure that will be difficult for the North Korean regime to endure,” the South’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement………

Worry about North Korean aggression has also led to a deterioration of ties between China and South Korea because China objects to the deployment of a US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system in the South.

“It’s not hard to see that ever since the United States and Republic of Korea decided to deploy THAAD, the situation has not become harmonious but has become more tense,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang, said in response to a question about the system………http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-warns-north-korea-tension-has-to-be-stopped-from-reaching-irreversible-stage-20170414-gvleo7.html

April 15, 2017 Posted by | China, North Korea, politics international | Leave a comment

As Navy warships approach, North Korea threatens nuclear strike on USA

North Korea threatens U.S. with #nuclear strike as Navy warships approach https://www.dailydot.com/layer8/north-korea-threatens-nuclear-attack/ —\Apr 11 2017North Korea this week threatened to launch a nuclear attack on the United States at the first sign of aggression from the U.S. Navy strike group that President Donald Trump ordered to the Korean peninsula.

April 12, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, politics international, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

A warning to North Korea, from China, against conducting further nuclear weapons tests

Chinese tabloid warns N.Korea against test http://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/north-korea-warns-of-nuclear-strike/news-story/27dbacebb5390d5c95245bd82d538925 APRIL 12, 2017 North Korea should halt any plans for nuclear and missile activities “for its own security”, a Chinese newspaper says, warning that the US is making clear it doesn’t plan to “co-exist” with a nuclear-armed Pyongyang.

April 12, 2017 Posted by | China, North Korea, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

North Korea says that US air strikes on Syria show the necessity for developing nuclear weapons

North Korea says US air strikes on Syria vindicates decision to develop nuclear weapons, ABC News 9 Apr 17  North Korea has said US missile strikes against a Syrian airfield were “an unforgivable act of aggression” that showed its decision to develop nuclear weapons was “the right choice a million times over”.

Key points:

  • North Korea says US strikes vindicates decision to strengthen its military power
  • Kim Jong-un has exchanged pledges of friendship and cooperation with Bashar al-Assad
  • Mr Trump earlier spoke of an “outstanding” relationship with North Korea’s ally China

The response by North Korea’s foreign ministry, carried by the official KCNA news agency, was the first since US warships launched dozens of missiles at a Syrian air base which the Pentagon says was involved in a chemical weapons attack earlier in the week.

“The US missile attack against Syria is a clear and unforgivable act of aggression against a sovereign state and we strongly condemn this,” KCNA quoted an unnamed spokesman for the North Korean foreign ministry as saying……….http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-09/north-korea-calls-us-syria-air-strikes-unforgivable/8428398

April 10, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

U.N. meeting on North Korea nuclear program to be chaired by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson

Tillerson to chair U.N. meeting on North Korea nuclear program, Reuters By Michelle Nichols | UNITED NATIONS, 7 Apr 17, 

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will chair a United Nations Security Council meeting on North Korea on April 28 to discuss how the body can combat Pyongyang’s banned nuclear and missile programs, U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Monday.

North Korea has been under U.N. sanctions aimed at impeding the development of its nuclear and missile programs since 2006. The 15-member council has strengthened sanctions following each of North Korea’s five nuclear tests.

“We do need to talk about it in terms of what are we as a council are going to do to deal with North Korea and how do we push that forward. So we hope that we get as many foreign ministers to come as possible,” Haley told a news conference to mark Washington’s presidency of the Security Council for April…….http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-un-usa-idUSKBN1752LC

April 8, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, politics international | Leave a comment

North Korea has learned from the Qaddafi regime the importance of maintaining its nukes.

North Korea Has Nuclear Weapons So It Won’t End Up Like Libya, The National Interest, Edward Chang, 6 Apr 17   As many experts have predicted, North Korea is trending to become the Trump administration’s first major foreign-policy crisis. The latest developments continue to reinforce that trend.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Donald Trump threatened to take unilateral action to stop the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s nuclear program unless China stepped in to address the issue. U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, echoed that stance not long after Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis indicated that he views the DPRK as the gravest threat to America. The week prior to that, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson declared that the Obama-era strategy of “strategic patience” was over and warned that military action was an option if North Korea did not unilaterally disarm.

While the early post-war time period occasionally involved troubling acts of violence that resulted in the deaths of Americans, the United States and North Korea have since avoided such encounters (the same cannot be said for South Korea). And while no American president ever dismissed force as an option, Trump is unique in the blunt and direct manner he has used to challenge the reclusive regime. Which begs the question—has a clash between the United States and North Korea become inevitable?………

Like U.S.-North Korea relations, U.S.-Libyan relations were fraught with tension from the beginning, following the 1969 coup that brought Qaddafi to power. Like North Korea, Libya earned the reputation of “rogue state,” defying international norms and engaging in destabilizing behavior in the region……..

Reagan’s undeclared war” against Libya hints at one possible future in Trump-era relations with North Korea. Both presidents have assumed unambiguously confrontational postures, employing rhetoric that previous presidents have attempted to avoid. Much like Reagan singled-out Qaddafi after focusing elsewhere during the election, Trump has now focused most of his attention on Kim Jong-un, after initially emphasizing threats like ISIL as the more pressing issue………

Conventional wisdom holds that Trump will behave in a manner consistent with his predecessors for one simple reason—the stakes are too high………

Perhaps the most useful lesson to learn from Reagan’s war with Qaddafi is that it was ultimately inconclusive. The Libyan problem spanned the entirety of Reagan’s two terms; by the administration’s end, Qaddafi was still in power. Nearly a full decade of sanctions and overwhelming force notwithstanding, the U.S.-Libya saga demonstrated decisive actions do not necessarily lead to decisive results……..

As his national security staff completes its North Korea review, it is hoped that “the Donald” will learn the hard line leads to uncharted territory. More importantly, the forty-fifth president would do well to accept there are no obvious solutions to this crisis; using force does not always lead to the desired outcome. Regardless of which path he takes, Trump may very well be dealing with Kim through the totality of his presidency. ……http://nationalinterest.org/feature/north-korea-has-nuclear-weapons-so-it-wont-end-libya-20060

 

April 8, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment