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Donald Trump has few real options in dealing with North Korea

For Trump, Threats but Few Options in Confronting North Korea, NYT, By DAVID E. SANGER,  JULY 4, 2017 When then-President-elect Trump said on Twitter in early January that a North Korean test of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States “won’t happen!” there were two things that he still did not fully appreciate: how close Kim Jong-un, the North’s leader, was to reaching that goal, and how limited any president’s options were to stop him.

The ensuing seven months have been a brutal education for Mr. Trump. With North Korea’s Tuesday launch, the country has new reach. Experts believe it has crossed the threshold — if just barely — with a missile that appears capable of striking Alaska.

Mr. Kim’s repeated tests show that a more definitive demonstration that he can reach the American mainland cannot be far away, even if it may be a few years before he can fit a nuclear warhead onto his increasingly powerful missiles. But for Mr. Trump and his national security team, today’s technical milestone simply underscores tomorrow’s strategic dilemma.

A North Korean ability to reach the United States, as former Defense Secretary William J. Perry noted recently, “changes every calculus.” The fear is not that Mr. Kim would launch a pre-emptive attack on the West Coast; that would be suicidal, and if the 33-year-old leader has demonstrated anything in his five years in office, he is all about survival. But if Mr. Kim has the potential ability to strike back, it would shape every decision Mr. Trump and his successors will make about defending America’s allies in the region………

So what are Mr. Trump’s options, and what are their downsides?

There is classic containment: limiting an adversary’s ability to expand its influence, as the United States did against a much more powerful foe, the Soviet Union. But that does not solve the problem; it is just a way of living with it.

He could step up sanctions, bolster the American naval presence off the Korean Peninsula — “we’re sending an armada,” he boasted in April — and accelerate the secret American cyberprogram to sabotage missile launches. But if that combination of intimidation and technical wizardry had been a success, Mr. Kim would not have conducted the test on Tuesday, knowing that it would lead only to more sanctions, more military pressure and more covert activity — and perhaps persuade China that it has no choice but to intervene more decisively.

So far, Mr. Trump’s early enthusiasm that he had cajoled China’s president, Xi Jinping, to crack down on the North has resulted in predictable disappointment. Recently, he told Mr. Xi that the United States was prepared to go it alone in confronting North Korea, but the Chinese may consider that an empty threat.

He could also take another step and threaten pre-emptive military strikes if the United States detects an imminent launch of a intercontinental ballistic missile — maybe one intended to demonstrate the potential reach to the West Coast. Mr. Perry argued for that step in 2006, in an op-ed in The Washington Post that he wrote with a future defense secretary, Ashton B. Carter. “If North Korea persists in its launch preparations, the United States should immediately make clear its intention to strike and destroy” the missile on the pad, the two men wrote.

But Mr. Perry noted recently that “even if you think it was a good idea at the time,” and he now seems to have his doubts, “it’s not a good idea today.”

The reason is simple: In the intervening 11 years, the North has built too many missiles, of too many varieties, to make the benefits of a strike like that worth the risk. It has test-flown a new generation of solid-fuel missiles, which can be easily hidden in mountain caves and rolled out for quick launch. And the North Koreans still possess their ultimate weapon of retaliation: artillery along the northern edge of the Demilitarized Zone that can take out the South’s capital, Seoul, a city of approximately 10 million people and one of the most vibrant economic hubs of Asia.

In short, that is a risk the North Koreans are betting even Mr. Trump, for all his threats, would not take. “A conflict in North Korea,” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” in May, “would be probably the worst kind of fighting in most people’s lifetimes.”

Which leads to the next option, the one that South Korea’s new president, Moon Jae-in, talked about in Washington on Friday when he visited Mr. Trump: negotiation. It would start with a freeze in North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests in return for an American agreement to limit or suspend military exercises with South Korea. Mr. Xi has long urged that approach, and it won an endorsement on Tuesday from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, after he met with the Chinese leader.

That, too, carries risks. It essentially achieves the North Korean and Chinese goal of limiting American military freedom of action in the Pacific, and over time erodes the quality of the American-South Korean military deterrent.

Negotiations with the North are hardly a new idea: Bill Clinton tried it in 1994, and Mr. Bush in the last two years of his term. But both discovered that over time, once the North Koreans determined that the economic benefits were limited, the deals fell apart.

Moreover, a freeze at this late date, when the North is estimated to have 10 to 20 nuclear weapons, essentially acknowledges that the North’s modest arsenal is here to stay.

Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson said as much when he visited Seoul in mid-March and told reporters that he would most likely reject any solution that would enshrine “a comprehensive set of capabilities” in the North. He has since softened his public comments. Administration officials now suggest that a freeze would not be a solution, but a way station to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula — in other words, an agreement that Mr. Kim would give up all his nuclear weapons and missiles.

But it is now clear that Mr. Kim has no interest in giving up that power. As he looks around the world, he sees cases like that of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya — an authoritarian who gave up his nascent nuclear program, only to be deposed, with American help, as soon as his people turned against him. That is what Mr. Kim believes his nuclear program will prevent — an American effort to topple him.

He may be right.  https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/04/us/politics/trump-north-korea-missile-icbm.html

July 5, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, politics international, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

North Korea Fired Intercontinental Ballistic Missile – USA administration confirms

U.S. Confirms North Korea Fired Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, NYT 点击查看本文中文版 By CHOE SANG-HUNJULY 4, 2017 SEOUL, South Korea — The Trump administration on Tuesday confirmed North Korea’s claim that it had launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, and it told Pyongyang that the United States would use “the full range of capabilities at our disposal against the growing threat.”

The administration followed up that warning on Wednesday morning with a joint military exercise in which United States and South Korean forces fired ballistic missiles in the waters along the Korean Peninsula’s east coast.

But North Korea reaffirmed Wednesday that it would never deviate from its determination to bolster its nuclear and missile abilities as long as the United States’ “hostile policy” and “nuclear threat” persisted.

The North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency said its new intercontinental ballistic missile, the Hwasong-14, was capable of hitting the “heart of the United States” with “large heavy nuclear warheads.” The launch, according to the agency, successfully tested the functions of the missile’s two propulsive stages and the warhead’s ability to endure the intense heat and vibrations as it entered the earth’s atmosphere……

Acting on an American request, the United Nations Security Council, which has repeatedly penalized North Korea over its violations of a ban on nuclear and missile testing, will meet in an emergency session on Wednesday afternoon.

The United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, sharply criticized the North Korean launch. “This action is yet another brazen violation of Security Council resolutions and constitutes a dangerous escalation of the situation,” he said in a statement. Mr. Guterres called on North Korea to “cease further provocative actions and comply fully with its international obligations.”…..While the North has made significant progress in its weapons programs, experts believe it cannot make nuclear warheads small enough to be mounted on ICBMs. Still, American policy makers have long seen just the development of an ICBM as a critical threshold the North should not be allowed to cross.

The missile test adds a volatile new element to the Trump administration’s efforts to curb North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, which have included naval drills off the Korean Peninsula and pressure on China, Pyongyang’s longtime ally. In a blunt phone call on Sunday, President Trump warned President Xi Jinping of China that the United States was prepared to act alone against North Korea…….

Mr. Trump is to meet this week with both Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi at a Group of 20 meeting in Germany, and Cheng Xiaohe, an associate professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, said the missile test would force them to find some kind of common ground on North Korea. He did not specify what that might be, but he suggested that it would now be harder for Mr. Xi to stand by Pyongyang.

“Certainly the test will change the game,” Professor Cheng said. “The business-as-usual situation is over.”

Other analysts said the launch would put Mr. Trump’s administration in a precarious position, given that it had indicated that such a missile, capable of reaching parts of the United States, was a critical threshold. In January, Mr. Trump declared on Twitter, “It won’t happen!”; the message set off a cascade of speculation on what exactly he meant.

“The important thing is that Donald Trump doesn’t let himself be backed into a corner and that he understands that there are long-term options to contain, constrain and deter the regime,” said Adam Mount, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress in Washington……https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test-icbm.html

July 5, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

China calls for calm and restraint on North Korea

China calls for calm after North Korea claims first successful launch of ICBM that can ‘strike any place in the world’   If this type of missile becomes fully operational, it could potentially deliver a nuclear warhead to the US mainland http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2101193/north-korea-says-it-has-successfully-tested-icbm, Agence France-Presse, Reuters, Associated Press 05 July, 2017,

  China has called for calm and restraint after North Korea claimed to have test-launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile that is capable of hitting anywhere in the world.

 Foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang also defended China’s “relentless efforts” to resolve the North Korean nuclear standoff after US President Donald Trump called on Beijing to “end this nonsense once and for all”.

The United States on Tuesday requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council after North Korea declared that it had successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile, the US mission said. The meeting is expected to take place on Wednesday.

US Ambassador Nikki Haley on Tuesday spoke by phone with China’s Ambassador Liu Jieyi, who holds the council presidency this month, to convey the US request for an urgent meeting.

North Korea’s announcement Tuesday came after the launch of a ballistic missile in the morning. It flew about 39 minutes and reached an altitude of 2,802 kilometres, before landing in waters within Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according to the announcement.

North Korea’s claims the missile reached that altitude could not be verified. However Japan’s Defence Ministry said it reached an altitude that “greatly exceeded” 2,500 kilometres.

A test-launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, if confirmed, would be considered a game-changer by countries looking to check North Korea’s push for a nuclear-armed missile that can reach anywhere in the United States.

The test still may be the North’s most successful yet; a weapon analyst says missile could be powerful enough to reach Alaska. The “landmark” test of a Hwasong-14 missile was overseen by leader Kim Jong-un, an emotional female announcer said. It flew 933 kilometres, she added.    The North was “a strong nuclear power state” and had “a very powerful ICBM that can strike any place in the world” she said.

There are still doubts whether the North can miniaturise a nuclear weapon sufficiently to fit it onto a missile nose cone, or whether it has mastered the technology needed for it to survive the difficult re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere.

In his New Year’s address, Kim said his country had reached the final stage of preparing to test-launch the long-range missile.

Officials from South Korea, Japan and the United States said the missile landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) after being launched near an airfield in Panghyon, about 100 km northwest of the North’s capital, Pyongyang.

Japan said on Monday the United States, South Korea and Japan will have a trilateral summit on North Korea at the G20. China’s leader Xi Jinping will also be at the July 7-8 meeting in Hamburg, Germany.

Trump, responding to the latest launch, wrote on Twitter: “North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?” an apparent reference to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. “Hard to believe South Korea and Japan will put up with this much longer. Perhaps China will put a heavy move on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all!”, Trump said in a series of tweets.

North Korea has conducted nuclear and missile tests to show defiance in the face of international pressure and to raise the stakes when Pyongyang sees regional powers getting ready for talks or sanctions, analysts say.

White House officials said Trump was briefed on the latest launch, which took place hours before Independence Day celebrations in the United States. North Korea has previously fired missiles around this holiday.

Pyongyang has conducted missile-related activities at an unprecedented pace since the start of last year, but analysts had thought it was years away from having a nuclear-tipped ICBM. capable of hitting the United States.

North Korea is also trying to develop intermediate-range missiles capable of hitting US bases in the Pacific. The last North Korean launches before Tuesday were of land-to-sea cruise missiles on June 8.

David Wright, co-director of the Global Security Programme at the US-based Union of Concerned Scientists, said the assessments of the flight time and distance suggest the missile might have been launched on a “very highly lofted” trajectory of more than 2,800 km.

The same missile could reach a maximum range of roughly 6,700 km on a standard trajectory, Wright said in a blog post.“That range would not be enough to reach the lower 48 states or the large islands of Hawaii, but would allow it to reach all of Alaska,” he said.

South Korea’s President Moon said on Monday in a meeting with former US president Barack Obama that North Korea now faces its “last opportunity” to engage in talks with the outside world.

North Korea has conducted four missile tests since Moon took office in May, vowing to use dialogue as well as pressure to bring Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programmes under control.

Earlier this week, North Korea was a key topic in phone calls between Trump and the leaders of China and Japan. Leaders of both Asian countries reaffirmed their commitment to a denuclearised Korean Peninsula.  Trump has recently suggested he was running out of patience with China’s modest steps to pressure North Korea.

July 5, 2017 Posted by | China, North Korea, politics international | Leave a comment

Russia and China propose negotiation plan to lessen North Korea tensions

Russia, China offer plan to ease N.Korea tension, abc news, 4 July 17  Russia and China have proposed that North Korea declare a moratorium on nuclear and missile tests while the United States and South Korea refrain from large-scale military exercises.

The call was issued in a joint statement by the Russian and Chinese foreign ministries on Tuesday following talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The statement came after North Korea tested a missile that flew higher and longer than previous ones, sparking concerns around the world.

Moscow and Beijing suggested that if North Korea halts nuclear and missile tests while the U.S. and South Korea freeze military maneuvers, the parties could sit down for talks that should lead to obligations not to use force and to refrain from aggression………..

North Korea says its latest missile test reached a height of 2,802 kilometers (1,740 miles) and flew 933 kilometers (580 miles) for 39 minutes before falling into the sea.

The country’s Academy of Defense Science said Tuesday in a statement that it was a successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missiles called Hwasong-14.

The statement was distributed by North Korea’s KCNA news service.

The reported trajectory was similar to that announced earlier by U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials, though the U.S. judged it to be an intermediate-range missile.

Either way, it would be a longer and higher flight than similar tests previously reported.

The U.S military says it tracked a North Korean missile for 37 minutes before it landed in the Sea of Japan.

The Hawaii-based U.S. Pacific Command said in a statement Tuesday that an intermediate-range ballistic missile was launched from near an airfield in North Korea.

NORAD, or the North American Aerospace Defense Command, said the missile did not pose a threat to North America.

South Korean and Japanese officials reported the North Korean missile launch earlier Tuesday. It is part of a string of recent tests as the North works to build a nuclear-tipped missile that could reach the United States………http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-north-korea-height-distance-missile-48430348

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July 5, 2017 Posted by | China, North Korea, politics international, Russia, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Australia now in reach of North Korea’s new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)

Australia now within range of new North Korean missile, as calculations show it could fly far enough to hit Darwin

  • The ‘landmark’ test of a Hwasong-14 missile was overseen by leader Kim Jong-Un
  • It was fired from a site in the North Phyongan province into the Sea of Japan
  • It is believed to have reached an altitude of 2802 km and flew 933 km
  • The North has long sought to build nuclear missiles capable of reaching the US
  • Weapons analysts say the missile has the capability to travel up to 6,700km
  • Darwin is only 5,750km from Pyongyang, putting Australia into the firing line

By Hannah Moore For Daily Mail Australia and Kelly Mclaughlin For Mailonline, 4 July 2017 North Korea on Tuesday said it had successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), claiming the rocket had flown 933 kilometres for 39 minutes.

Experts say the missile could reach a maximum range of 6,700km on a standard trajectory, meaning it would be able to hit Darwin, which is 5,750km from Pyongyang.

David Wright, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, wrote on the organisation’s allthingsnuclear blog that the available figures implied the missile ‘could reach a maximum range of roughly 6,700 km on a standard trajectory’.

‘That range would not be enough to reach the lower 48 states or the large islands of Hawaii, but would allow it to reach all of Alaska.’ …………http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4664328/Australia-range-new-North-Korean-missile.html#ixzz4ltt8SE9M

July 5, 2017 Posted by | AUSTRALIA, North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Timeline of North Korea’s missiles tests in 2017

North Korea’s missiles tests in 2017: A timeline http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/north-koreas-missiles-tests-in-2017-a-timeline, 4 Jul 17 North Korea has conducted missile and nuclear weapons related activities at an unprecedented rate since the beginning of 2017 and is believed to have made some progress in developing intermediate-range and submarine-launched missiles.

Here’s a timeline of the missile launches and tests the regime is known to have carried out this year:

Feb 12, 2017: North Korea fires its first ballistic missile in 2017, in what is seen as a show of force against the leaders of the United States and Japan reaffirming their security alliance. The missile is believed to be a mid-range Rodong or something similar, flying 500km and landing in the East Sea, also known as Sea of Japan.

March 6, 2017: North Korea fires four ballistic missiles, with three falling into Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

April 16, 2017: North Korea fires an unidentified ballistic missile that explodes almost immediately after launch, defying warnings from the Trump administration to avoid any further provocations

April 29, 2017: In an apparent defiance of a concerted US push for tougher international sanctions to curb Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons ambitions, the country test-fires a ballistic missile from the Pukchang region in a north-easterly direction. The missile reaches an altitude of 71 km before disintegrating a few minutes into flight.

May 14, 2017: Only four days after the inauguration of South Korea’s new leader Moon Jae In, North Korea fires a ballistic missile in an apparent bid to test the liberal president and the US, which have both signalled an interest in negotiations to ease months of tensions.

The missile flies for 700km and reaches an altitude of more than 2,000km before landing in the Sea of Japan or East Sea, further and higher than an intermediate-range missile North Korea successfully tested in February from the same region of Kusong, north-west of Pyongyang.

While the US Pacific Command says it does not appear to be an intercontinental ballistic missile, the successful launch of a mid-to-long range missile indicated a significant advance in North Korea’s drive for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), monitors say.

The North boasts that the launch is aimed at verifying the capability to carry a “large scale heavy nuclear warhead”.

May 22, 2017: North Korea launches medium-range ballistic missile Pukguksong-2, Pyongyang’s state media reported, adding the weapon was now ready to be deployed for military action.

The test sparks a fresh chorus of international condemnation and threats of tougher United Nations sanctions.

May 29, 2017: North Korea fires at least one short-range ballistic missile that lands in the sea off its east coast. The missile is believed to be a Scud-class ballistic missile and flew about 450km. North Korea has a large stockpile of the short-range missiles, originally developed by the Soviet Union.

North Korea is likely showing its determination to push ahead in the face of international pressure to rein in its missile programme and “to pressure the (South Korean) government to change its policy on the North”, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesman Roh Jae Cheon said.

June 8, 2017: A volley of surface-to-ship cruise missiles are fired off North Korea’s east coast, less than a week after the United Nations expanded sanctions against Kim Jong Un’s regime in response to recent ballistic missile tests.

The short range missiles fly some 200km before falling into the Sea of Japan, says South Korea’s defence ministry.

June 22, 2017: North Korea conducts a “small rocket engine test on or around June 22, the respected 38 North analysis group says, after a US official reportedly suggested the test could be a step to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

It is not clear whether the test, conducted at the North’s Sohae satellite launch site, involved an ICBM engine.

July 4, 2017: Just days after South Korea President Moon Jae In and US President Donald Trump focused on the threat from Pyongyang in their first summit, North Korea fires a ballistic which flies for 930km and exceeds 2,500km in altitude in 40 minutes before falling into Japan’s exclusive economic zone, Seoul and Tokyo say.

The US military says the missile is an intermediate range ballistic missile and does not pose a threat to North America, but analysts say the missile is able to reach Alaska.

SOURCES: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, REUTERS

July 5, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, Reference, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Ex-nuclear commanders from around the world urge Trump towards talks with North Korea, not military action

Nuclear experts warn of a march to war with North Korea, Salon,com  Ex-nuclear commanders from around the world are urging Trump to engage in talks with North Korea instead, MATTHEW ROZSA, 29 June 17, A group of ex-nuclear commanders issued a strong warning on Wednesday that pointed out the world is at the precipice of a potential nuclear war, and urged America to open up dialogue with North Korea.

Hailing from China, India, Pakistan, Russia and the United States, the Nuclear Crisis Group determined “that the risk of nuclear weapons use, intended or otherwise, is unacceptably high and that all states must take constructive steps to reduce these risks.” They called on the United States and NATO to establish military-to-military talks with Russia and recommended that India and Pakistan set up a nuclear hotline.

The group was created earlier in 2017 with the approval of Global Zero, an arms control group that ultimately wants to abolish nuclear weapons.

The letter came as H. R. McMaster, President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, told reporters during a security conference with Homeland Security Chief John Kelly on Wednesday that “the [North Korean] threat is much more immediate now and so it’s clear that we can’t repeat the same approach – failed approach of the past.”…. http://www.salon.com/2017/06/29/nuclear-experts-warn-of-a-march-to-war-with-north-korea/

June 30, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

There are “positive signals” on Korean Peninsula nuclear issue – China

China hails “positive signals” on Korean Peninsula nuclear issue http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-06/23/c_136389835.htm Editor: Mengjie BEIJING, June 23 (Xinhua) — China on Friday hailed recent “positive signals” on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue and called for addressing concerns of various parties in a balanced way.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang made the comments in response to a question regarding remarks by a number of diplomats concerned about the issue.

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) ambassador to India Kye Chun Yong said Wednesday the DPRK would not rule out suspending nuclear and missile tests if the United States abandoned the practice of holding large-scale military drills, according to media reports. The ambassador said Pyongyang was ready for negotiations with the United States at any time and without preconditions.

Meanwhile, a special advisor to President Moon Jae-in of the Republic of Korea (ROK) indicated a reduction of joint war games with the United States if the DPRK stopped nuclear and missile activities.

“China believes these positive messages are important for easing tension on the peninsula and for a solution to the issue through dialogue,” Geng said. Geng said the root of the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue was in security. He said the solution required comprehensive measures and addressing both the symptoms and root causes.

China proposed a “dual-track approach” to denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, establishing a peace mechanism in parallel, and a “suspension for suspension” to defuse the looming crisis.

As a first step, Pyongyang may suspend its nuclear and missile activities in exchange for the suspension of large-scale Washington-Seoul military exercises.

China has also called for strengthening efforts on non-proliferation and promotion of peace talks to bring the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula to a peaceful settlement.

“We are glad to see China’s proposals have gained increasing support and responses,” Geng said.

China welcomes and encourages suggestions to help alleviate tension and confrontation, enhance communication and trust, and restart dialogue as soon as possible, Geng said.

He called for the international community to seize all possible opportunities, to promote the settlement of the issue through dialogue and consultations.

June 24, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, politics international | Leave a comment

New activity at North Korean nuclear test site

US spy satellites detect activity at North Korean nuclear test site, By Barbara Starr, Elise Labott and Zachary Cohen, CNN, June 20, 2017

Story highlights

  • The activity appears to involve some modifications around one of the tunnel entrances to an underground test area
  • US officials have known that the site is ready to conduct an underground test for some time
 US spy satellites have detected new activity at North Korea’s underground nuclear test site for the first time in several weeks, two US officials told CNN.
The activity appears to involve some modifications around one of the tunnel entrances to an underground test area.
The officials said it is not yet clear if the activity indicates a sixth nuclear test is imminent, but noted there is concern that North Korea could set off a test during Wednesday’s visit to Washington by top Chinese diplomats and military officials.
US officials have known that the site is ready to conduct an underground test for some time.
Two senior US officials with direct knowledge also told CNN that military options for North Korea have recently been updated, and will be presented to President Donald Trump for a decision to act if there is a nuclear test.
However, there is no indication whether any military response would actually happen……
In a recent exchange with Sen. Lindsay Graham on Capitol Hill, Defense Secretary James Mattis took an unusually specific stand on US military policy.
Graham asked: “Is it the policy of the Trump administration to deny North Korea the capability of building an (intercontinental ballistic missile) that can hit the American homeland with a nuclear weapon on top? Is that the policy?”
Mattis answered simply: “Yes.”
Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson are hosting their Chinese counterparts on Wednesday for the US-China Diplomatic and Security Dialogue in Washington. At the bilateral talks tomorrow, officials say the US is looking to use trade as a weapon with China to put more pressure on North Korea.
Most estimates suggest that Kim’s unpredictable regime is between three and five years away from achieving its nuclear ambitions. http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/20/politics/us-spy-satellites-north-korea-nuclear-test/index.html

June 21, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

The escalating nuclear crisis of North Korea: time to abandon coercive diplomacy

Overcoming Nuclear Crises: North Korea and Beyond http://www.globalresearch.ca/overcoming-nuclear-crises-north-korea-and-beyond/5594878, By Richard Falk and David Krieger Global Research, June 17, 2017

Global Justice in the 21st Century 15 June 2017 Alarmingly, tensions between the United States and North Korea have again reached crisis proportions. The United States wants North Korea to curtail any further development of its nuclear weapons program, as well as to stop testing its missiles. North Korea evidently seeks to bolster its security by acquiring a sufficiently robust deterrent capability to discourage an attack by the United States. The unpredictable leaders of both countries are pursuing extremely provocative and destabilizing patterns of behavior. Where such a dangerous interaction leads no one can now foresee. The risk of this tense situation spiraling out of control should not be minimized.

It is urgent that all governments concerned make a sober reassessment in a timely manner. The following questions need to be addressed: What can be done to defuse this escalating crisis? What should be done to prevent further crises in the future? What could be learned from recurrent crises involving nuclear weapons states?

It is discouraging that the White House continues to rely mainly on threat diplomacy. It has not worked in responding to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions for the past few decades, and it is crucial to try a different approach. Currently, there are mixed signals that such a shift may be underway. President Trump has turned to China, imploring that it use its leverage to induce Kim Jong-un to back down, and has even mentioned the possibility of inviting Kim for crisis-resolving talks. Also relevant and hopeful is the election of Moon Jae-in as the new president of South Korea, and his insistent calls for improved relations with the North.

In the end, no reasonable person would opt for another war on the Korean Peninsula. The only rational alternative is diplomacy. But what kind of diplomacy? American reliance on threat and punitive diplomacy has never succeeded in the past and is almost certain to fail now. We assuredly need diplomacy, but of a different character.

It is time to abandon coercive diplomacy and develop an approach that can be described as restorative diplomacy. Coercive diplomacy relies on a zero/sum calculus consisting of military threats, sanctions, and a variety of punitive measures. Restorative diplomacy adopts a win/win approach that seeks to find mutual benefits for both sides, restructuring the relationship so as to provide security for the weaker side and stability for the stronger side. The challenge to the political imagination is to find the concrete formula for translating this abstract goal into viable policy options.

The basic shift is a mental recognition that in the context of the Korean Peninsula any military encounter, whether nuclear or non-nuclear, is a recipe for catastrophe. It is not a win or lose situation. It is lose/lose in terms of human suffering, devastation, and likely political outcome. If nuclear weapons are used by either or both sides, millions of casualties could occur and the wider consequences an unprecedented disaster.

While there have been suggestions from the Trump administration that the time for talk with North Korea is over, actually the opposite is true. A solution to the present Korean crisis would involve an immediate return to the negotiating table with positive inducements made by the U.S. in exchange for North Korea halting its development of nuclear weapons and missile testing. Such incentives could include, first and foremost, bilateral and regional security guarantees to the North Korean government, ensuring that the country would not be attacked and its sovereignty respected. This could be coupled with confidence-building measures. The U.S. and South Korea should halt their joint annual military exercises in the vicinity of North Korea, as well as forego provocative weapons deployments. In addition, the U.S. and possibly Japan could offer North Korea additional benefits: food, medicine, and clean energy technology. China could play a positive role by hosting the negotiations, including possibly inviting the new leader of South Korea to participate.

Beyond resolving the current crisis is the deeper challenge to prevent recurrent crises that pit nuclear weapons states against one another. There is no way to achieve this result so long as some countries retain, develop, and deploy nuclear weapons, and other countries are prohibited from acquiring such weaponry even if their security is under threat. Iraq and Libya arguably suffered from the consequences of not having nuclear weapons to deter attacks against them.

The only way out of this trap is to recognize that the nuclear nonproliferation regime has failed. The treaty provisions calling for nuclear as well as general and complete disarmament negotiations have been neglected for nearly a half century. Outside the terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the United States has acted as an enforcer of a nuclear nonproliferation regime. Such a role motivated the U.S. attack on Iraq in 2003 with its disastrous impacts on the country and the entire Middle East. It also underlies the current crisis pitting Washington’s demands against Pyongyang’s provocations. Hard power approaches to such dangerous developments have a dismal record, and pose unacceptable risks of regional and global havoc.

To prohibit and eliminate nuclear weapons epitomizes prudence in the Nuclear Age. It is the only way to prevent a crisis between nuclear-armed opponents turning into a nuclear catastrophe. Such behavior would constitute an act of sanity for humanity and its future given the extreme dangers of nuclear weapons, the periodic crises that erupt among nuclear-armed countries, and the growing odds of nuclear weapons being used at some point. Yet for smaller, weaker nuclear weapons states to go along with this approach, the United Nations Charter and international law must be respected to the point that regime-changing geopolitical interventions by dominant states are convincingly rejected as a reasonable policy option.

Any use of nuclear weapons would be catastrophic.. Depending upon the extent of the nuclear exchange, cities, countries, civilization, and even all complex life, including the human species, would be at risk. Experts anticipate that a nuclear war between India and Pakistan in which 100 Hiroshima-size nuclear weapons were used against cities would likely cause a nuclear famine taking two billion lives globally. An all-out nuclear war could be an extinction event for complex life, including humanity.

Nine countries currently possess nuclear weapons (United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea). Nine leaders could initiate nuclear war by mistake, miscalculation or malice. The future rests precariously in the hands of this small number of individuals. Such an unprecedented concentration of power and authority undermines democracy, as well as being extremely reckless.and irresponsible.

It is essential to maintain our focus on the challenges posed by the development of North Korean nuclear capabilities. At the same time, while struggling to defuse this crisis hanging over the Korean Peninsula, we should not lose sight of its connection with the questionable wider structure of reliance on nuclear weapons by the other eight nuclear-armed countries. Until this structure of nuclearism is itself overcome, crises will almost certainly continue to occur in the future. It is foolhardy to suppose that nuclear catastrophes can be indefinitely averted without addressing these deeper challenges that have existed ever since the original atomic attack on Hiroshima.

Richard Falk is Senior Vice President, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, and Albert G. Milbank Professor of International Law Emeritus, Princeton University.

David Krieger is President, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.

June 19, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, politics international | Leave a comment

North Korea moving surprisingly fast towards launching long-range, nuclear-capable missile

North Korea edging closer to launch a nuclear ICBM http://www.dw.com/en/north-korea-edging-closer-to-launch-a-nuclear-icbm/a-39230508, 13 June 17 Kim Jong Un’s scientists have surprised many with the speed at which they have overcome the technical obstacles to having a credible and effective long-range, nuclear-capable missile. Julian Ryall reports.

When North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un delivered his annual address in Pyongyang on January 1 and declared that his country was in the final stages of developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that would be capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to targets in the continental United States, many viewed the regime’s claim with skepticism.

But on June 4, North Korea’s state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper reported that the military would be ready to test-fire an ICBM in the near future. This has left governments and analysts in the region more concerned that Pyongyang’s scientists have made far more rapid progress than anyone had anticipated.

“The great success of test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile, which we are sure to achieve, will mark a historic watershed moment in the failure of the US hostile policy against us,” an editorial in the newspaper stated.

“Historically speaking, the US has never dared to go to war with a country that possesses nuclear weapons or ICBMs.”

Targeting US

It added that recent missile tests have “proved” that “anywhere in the US” is within the range of North Korean missiles.

On June 8, North Korea fired a salvo of what appeared to be anti-ship cruise missiles at targets off its east coast. The launches were the fifth since Moon Jae-in was sworn in as South Korea’s president on May 10.

The most significant of the North’s recent tests, however, came just four days after Moon’s inauguration and demonstrated the strides that Kim’s scientists have made in a remarkably short space of time.

Defense officials in South Korea and the US confirmed that the launch of the liquid-fuel Hwasong-12 missile was a success. North Korea claimed the weapon reached an altitude of 2,111.5 kilometers and travelled a distance of 787 kilometers before splashing down in the Sea of Japan.

The missile took a steep parabolic route that tested its ability to survive re-entry into the atmosphere.

North Korea’s state media reported that the missile – capable of carrying a “large-size, heavy nuclear warhead” – had come through “the worst re-entry situation” and struck its intended target.

That claim was confirmed by South Korean government sources, who told the JoongAng Daily newspaper that analysis of data communication from North Korea’s missile control center confirmed the warhead survived the 5,000 degrees Celsius and severe vibration it experienced on re-entry.

Mastered guidance and control

After numerous test launches, North Korean scientists have already mastered long-range guidance and control capabilities, while a series of underground tests have demonstrated that the regime of Kim Jong Un has acquired nuclear weapons.

Analysts say the last remaining hurdle that North Korean missiles have to overcome is consistently surviving re-entry, which will probably be the reason for the ICBM launch that the North is planning.

“The speed at which they have developed the ability to deliver a nuclear warhead over a long distance is extremely concerning,” said Kim Jae-chang, a former general in the South Korean Army and joint chairman of The Council on Korea-US Security Studies.

“The exact technical developments that they have made are only estimates, but many experts now believe they will be able to launch an ICBM by the end of this year,” he told DW. “And that is a very serious concern to the South.

“We estimate that the military purpose of North Korea developing an ICBM capability is to prevent the US from augmenting or relieving its forces in South Korea in the event of an emergency,” he said.

The belief is that the North can threaten the US mainland as well as its military bases in the Asia-Pacific region, such as those in Japan, Hawaii or the Pacific island of Guam, and interdict naval forces heading for the Korean peninsula.

In tandem with the threat of an ICBM launch, there are indications that North Korea is preparing to carry out a new underground nuclear test at its Punngye-ri proving grounds.

Media reports have suggested that satellite reconnaissance has picked up renewed activity at the site, with scientists gathering at the facility, more vehicles in the vicinity and roads in surrounding areas closed to non-military traffic. 10 kiloton test

North Korea conducted its last nuclear test in September, with experts suggesting the blast was 10 kilotons, the largest the North has ever carried out.

“Pyongyang’s actions and demands have been surprisingly consistent for many years,” said Garren Mulloy, an associate professor of international relations at Daito Bunkyo University. “They want one-on-one dialogue with the US, because they want to be respected and hope to extract concessions from the rest of the world.

“And they have concluded that the most likely way of succeeding with those aims is to threaten the US to the highest degree possible,” he said.

Read: North Korea crisis: Which country has the strongest military in the region?

The most effective way of threatening the US is through the development of multiple weapons systems, including nuclear warheads, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and ICBMs, Mulloy said.

And recent test launches with long-range missiles surviving re-entry and accurately descending on a target would be cause for serious concern in Seoul, Tokyo and Washington, he said, as the speed at which they travelled would mean that any anti-missile defensive system “would struggle to cope.”

“It is clear that they have put an enormous amount of resources into these weapons development programs and made advances that were far more rapid than I and most other analysts believed were possible,” Mulloy added. “They may have invested so heavily in nuclear weapons and ICBMs because they do not think that they have anything else to bargain with.”

June 14, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

North Korea hints that it could test a long range missile, that could hit New York

North Korea threatens to drop nuclear bomb on New York to prove Donald Trump tweet wrong
‘The DPRK is about 10,400 km far away from New York, but this is just not a long distance for a strike today’ Independent  Gabriel Samuels  @gabs_samuels  14 June 17  Korea has hinted that it could test a long range missile capable of hitting New York, months after President Donald Trump insisted: “It won’t happen”.

Accusing the US leader of underestimating the secretive Communist state’s capabilities, an article last week in state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun, suggested that it was close to developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

“Trump blustered early this year that the DPRK’s final access to a nuclear weapon that can reach the US mainland will never happen,” the editorial said, using an abbreviation for the country’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. …..http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-bomb-new-york-donald-trump-tweet-mocking-missile-capabilities-a7787686.html

June 14, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Increased activity around N. Korean test site may indicate 6th nuclear test

Activity around N. Korean test site may foretell 6th nuclear test, Asahi Shimbun, By YOSHIHIRO MAKINO/ Correspondent, June 11, 2017 SEOUL–Activity has intensified in the area around a North Korean nuclear test site, indicating Pyongyang may be preparing a sixth nuclear test, which it warned last month was “imminent.”

The preparations near the Punggyeri site match those of past occasions before North Korea conducted a nuclear test.

According to sources knowledgeable about what is occurring in North Korea, scientists who oversee nuclear materials as well as evaluate the nuclear tests have gathered at the Punggyeri site.

In addition, traffic to the site has been apparently shut down at the checkpoints leading to the area in northeastern North Korea.

However, movement of vehicles and humans within the test site continues to be active.

It is unclear if that flurry of activity is a precursor to a nuclear test or simply an exercise to prepare or inspect the site.

With the international community continuing to exert strong pressure on Pyongyang, a South Korean government source said, “there is a low possibility of North Korea going ahead with a nuclear test, which could end up being an act of suicide.”

There is the possibility of even further economic sanctions, such as suspension of petroleum imports, should North Korea continue with military provocations.

According to sources knowledgeable about China-South Korea ties, similar activity around the Punggyeri site was observed in April.

China took those preparations to be a sign that North Korea was about to conduct a nuclear test. Chinese officials explained to their counterparts in the United States and South Korea that pressure was applied at that time on North Korea in the form of a temporary suspension of Air China flights between Beijing and Pyongyang.

Meanwhile, North Korea has shown little sign of being cowed by the sanctions…….http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201706110023.html

June 12, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

USA nuclear weapons production, testing, and use, released carbon emissions – claims North Korea

NORTH KOREA CLAIMS U.S. WAR AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE, NewsWeek, BY TOM O’CONNOR ON 6/10/17 North Korea has accused U.S. military and environmental policies of causing climate change and producing pollution around the world.

In a scathing report cited Friday by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the state-run Institute for International Studies of the DPRK (an acronym for the country’s official title: the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea), asserted that the U.S.’s use of nuclear weapons, involvement in foreign conflicts and style of production had most harmed the environment since the Cold War. The study, attributed to researcher Kim Kum Hui and titled “The U.S. Is Chiefly to Blame for Global Environmental Pollution,” advised the U.S. to change course and safeguard the environment…..

North Korea’s report claimed that since the Cold War, the U.S. has forced other nations to adopt its model of “American-style development” under the guise of economic globalization. It said the U.S. alone accounted for 22.1 percent of the world’s carbon emissions in 2004. The figure appears to relatively coincide with conclusions established the following year by Washington-based think tank the World Research Institute. Research by the same organization says the U.S. contributed 14.4 percent in 2012, second only to China’s 25.36 percent. That same year, North Korea, an underdeveloped nation of around 25 million, was listed at .17 percent.

The report also laid into the military practices of the U.S., with which North Korea fought a war in the 1950s. The piece condemned the U.S.’s dropping of atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War Two in 1945, as well as the government’s nuclear tests, which numbered 1,054 between 1945 and 1992, according to the Department of Energy…….

Despite North Korea’s traditionally dismissive nature toward international treaties, Pyongyang has at times been a vocal advocate of global cooperation on environmental issues. It signed the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, which is geared toward reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, and deeply criticized Trump for pledging to withdraw from the non-binding, landmark treaty last week. North Korea has suffered from a number of deadly famines and floods that experts and international agencies have said indicate its vulnerability to climate change. http://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-us-war-nuclear-weapons-climate-change-623825

June 12, 2017 Posted by | climate change, North Korea, USA | 1 Comment

Defiant North Korea vows to continue its nuclear weapons development

North Korea “fully rejects” new UN sanctions and vows to continue its nuclear weapons development
Kim Jong-un’s rogue state described the sanctions resolution as “a crafty hostile act”, The Sun By Jon Lockett 4th June 2017, 

NORTH Korea today said it “fully rejects” the latest UN sanctions against its citizens as a “hostile act” and will continue its nuclear weapons development without delay.

The UN Security Council on Friday expanded targeted sanctions against Kim Jong-un’s rogue state after its repeated missile tests –  the first such resolution since President Donald Trump took office………https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3721517/north-korea-fully-rejects-new-un-sanctions-and-vows-to-continue-its-nuclear-weapons-development/

June 5, 2017 Posted by | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

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