nuclear-news

The News That Matters about the Nuclear Industry Fukushima Chernobyl Mayak Three Mile Island Atomic Testing Radiation Isotope

Zelensky rejected favorable peace deal with Russia – ex-aide

 https://www.rt.com/russia/590696-arestovich-ukraine-interview/

Ukraine now faces ten to 15 years of war, Aleksey Arestovich has said

Ukraine had the chance to make peace at the 2022 Istanbul talks but something or someone changed President Vladimir Zelensky’s mind, according to an interview with his former aide, Aleksey Arestovich, published on Monday.

Freddie Sayers, the editor in chief of the British outlet UnHerd, interviewed Arestovich almost a year after Ukraine’s top spin doctor left Zelensky’s service. He has since moved to the US, saying that Kiev wants him arrested on politically trumped-up charges.

“I was a member of the Istanbul process, and it was the most profitable agreement we could have done,” Arestovich told Sayers. The Ukrainian delegation “opened the champagne bottle” when they came back to Kiev, believing the agreement was a done deal, he added.

The protocols were “90% prepared” for a direct meeting between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Arestovich, when Ukrainian president called off the talks.

His rejection of a deal has been widely attributed to the ‘Bucha massacre’, which Ukraine accused Russia of, but Arestovich said he did not know that for a fact. Something “absolutely” changed Zelensky’s mind and “historians will have to find an answer to what happened,” Arestovich said.

“A lot of people say it was the Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who came to Kiev and put a stop to this negotiation with Russia. I don’t know exactly if that is true or false. He came to Kiev, but nobody knows what they spoke about except, I think, Zelensky and Boris Johnson himself,” he told UnHerd.

Johnson’s role in scuttling the Istanbul peace talks was reported as early as May 2022 by the outlet Ukrainska Pravda. According to the outlet, he came to Kiev with “two simple messages,” that Russian President Vladimir Putin was “a war criminal” who should not be negotiated with, and that even if Ukraine was ready to sign some kind of agreement with Russia, the West was not.

David Arakhamia, the leader of Zelensky’s party in the Ukrainian parliament, brought up the visit in a November 2023 interview, paraphrasing Johnson’s message as telling the Ukrainians “let’s just continue fighting.”

The former British PM finally commented on the matter last week, saying he merely told Zelensky the UK would support Ukraine “a thousand percent” and that any potential agreement with Russia would be “pretty sordid.” He insisted he did not “order” anyone to do anything, however.

According to Arestovich, the conflict has now evolved beyond Russia and Ukraine, pitting the collective West against the ‘Global South’.

“We have to negotiate for an all-new security system for Europe, taking into account all sides of this problem,” he told UnHerd, adding that NATO would need to discuss with Russia “what it would take to guarantee not to use military force in Europe to decide political questions.”

“I should perhaps add that I am absolutely pessimistic that this will happen. I think we face ten or 15 years of war in Europe,” Arestovich said.

January 18, 2024 Posted by | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Former Polish PM admits Ukraine’s strategy failed

 https://www.rt.com/russia/590598-poland-ukraine-fail/ 15 Jan 23

The conflict is “going in the wrong direction,” Mateusz Morawiecki told the UK’s Express newspaper

Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive was “not successful” and Russia has the upper hand strategically, former Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki admitted, in an interview with Britain’s Express newspaper published on Friday.

The conflict in Ukraine is “not going in the right direction,” Morawiecki told the outlet, outlining his “huge concern” with a situation in which Moscow had apparently outflanked its opponents.

Russia has “huge resources,” he explained, noting the country’s military production capabilities significantly outweighed the EU’s own. “They have this strategic depth, and they have patience in international politics,” he added, also dismissing the country’s elections scheduled for March as mere “theater” unlikely to change the balance of power in Moscow.

Morawiecki also argued, however, that Ukraine’s failure had a silver lining for NATO in that it had brought Finland and Sweden into the alliance and was “awakening” countries like Denmark and Romania. The Scandinavian countries, he said, were among the most vocal in calling attention to the threat allegedly posed by Russia.

Not only the security of the eastern flank of NATO, but also for the security of the United Kingdom, security of Germany, Denmark and the Scandinavians, they do understand it very, very well,” he said.

The former premier (2017-2023) was speaking to the British press for the first time since his successor, current PM Donald Tusk, had two lawmakers from Morawiecki’s Law and Justice Party (PiS) arrested earlier in the week. The ex-leader described the MPs as “political prisoners” and accused Tusk’s admittedly pro-EU government of “representing Brussels and Berlin, not Warsaw.

While international attention has largely shifted away from the Ukraine conflict to Israel’s war with Gaza as the latter threatens to erupt into a broader conflict, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak traveled to Kiev on Friday to bestow his government’s largest gift yet on the government of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, announcing £2.5 billion ($3.2 billion) to be paid out over the coming financial year and starting in April, and a bilateral agreement that includes security guarantees for Ukraine “in the event that it is ever attacked by Russia again.”

Zelensky has been vocal about his concern over flagging international support for Kiev’s fight, after unprecedented amounts of foreign aid from the UK, US, and EU failed to appreciably move the needle against Russia. Legislative gridlock has stalled planned aid packages in the US even as the Biden administration insists on an urgency to it, with his political opposition countering that accountability for funds spent must be a requirement for any future aid.

January 17, 2024 Posted by | politics international, Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Talks on Zelensky’s ‘peace formula’ are pointless – Kremlin

 https://www.rt.com/russia/590675-zelensky-peace-formula-talks-useless/ 15 Jan 24

Russia’s absence means the negotiations in Davos could not have produced any concrete results, Dmitry Peskov has said

Top officials from dozens of countries who met in Switzerland to discuss Ukraine’s ‘peace formula’ were engaged in a completely useless endeavor without Russian participation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.

On Sunday, national security advisers from 81 nations and international organizations gathered in Davos ahead of the World Economic Forum to talk about a 10-point initiative floated by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in October 2022 to end hostilities with Russia.

The plan calls for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory Kiev claims as its own and insists on the creation of a tribunal to prosecute Moscow for alleged war crimes. Russia has dismissed the proposal as divorced from reality.

Commenting on the Davos meeting, Peskov called it “talking for the sake of talking,” reiterating that the same applied to previous rounds of talks in such a format. “This process is not aimed and cannot be aimed at achieving a concrete result for an obvious and simple reason – we are not there.”

Russia was also absent from previous discussions last year in Denmark, Saudi Arabia, and Malta. At the same time, Moscow has never categorically refused peace talks with Kiev, despite Zelensky signing a decree banning all negotiations with the current Russian leadership after four regions overwhelmingly voted to join Russia in the autumn of 2022.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported on Sunday that the Davos talks had ended “with no clear path forward” despite Ukraine’s hopes that it would be able to secure backing for its plan from members of the Global South, many of whom have proclaimed neutrality in the conflict. That was denied by Ukrainian officials, however, who nevertheless acknowledged differences of opinion among the meeting’s participants.

On Sunday, Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis echoed Peskov’s remarks, arguing that any Ukraine peace talks should involve Russia in one way or another.

January 17, 2024 Posted by | politics international, Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

IG report finds Pentagon failed to account for more than $1B in weapons sent to Ukraine

Pentagon finds nearly 40,000 weapons sent to Ukraine were not properly tracked

 By Danielle Wallace , Liz Friden Fox News, 11 Jan 24

A new Department of Defense Inspector General report released Thursday finds more than $1 billion worth of weapons sent to Ukraine were not properly tracked by U.S. defense officials. 

The DOD IG has personnel stationed in Ukraine and is investigating with its Defense Criminal Investigative Service allegations of diversion of weapons. For now, the IG says, “It was beyond the scope of our evaluation to determine whether there has been diversion of such assistance.” 

The weapons in question are small and include shoulder-fired missiles, one-way attack drones and night-vision devices. 

“From a monetary perspective, the delinquent serial numbers account for more than $1.005 billion of the total $1.699 billion (59 percent of the total value) of EEUM‑designated defense articles as of June 2, 2023,” the report says. “Until those challenges are resolved, the DoD will not be able to fully account for all of the more than $1.699 billion in EEUM‑designated defense articles provided to Ukraine.”

As Congress weighs sending more U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, a growing number of lawmakers are demanding greater oversight. ……………………………………………….. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ig-report-finds-pentagon-failed-account-more-1b-weapons-sent-ukraine

January 14, 2024 Posted by | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Ukrainians will benefit from Zelensky’s fall – exiled opposition leader

Signs of The Times (SOTT) 10 Jan 2024

President Vladimir Zelensky is doomed to be ousted this year, having antagonized all of his domestic and foreign allies, exiled Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Medvedchuk has said. Zelensky’s demise, however, will be good for the Ukrainian people, he added.

Medvedchuk was the leader of the Opposition Platform – For Life party, which Zelensky’s government banned for allegedly being “pro-Russian.” He was arrested and forced out of Ukraine in a prisoner exchange with Moscow.

In a column published on Wednesday, Medvedchuk blasted the incumbent Ukrainian president, branding him an “unfunny parody of a dictator,” whose weakness sends a signal to all “political predators to eat him.”

“Zelensky has antagonized everyone he could: big businessmen, whom he blacklisted as traitors and oligarchs, professional Nazis, who see his cowardice, the military, who sees his incompetence, and last but not least the people, who see his indifference and cruelty.”

Ukraine is in a deep crisis that is bound to lead to a national disaster once Western funding for the proxy war against Russia is reduced, he claimed.

Ukrainian citizens need to realize that Zelensky’s downfall “does not necessarily mean a defeat of the Ukrainian people.”Instead, the opposite is true, according to Medvedchuk. It will be a victory for them, since the president “has long betrayed them and is selling them out for cannon fodder.”

The column predicted hard times for the US, which Medvedchuk believes has lost its direction, and the EU, which he expects to be sacrificed by Washington to support the American economy.For Ukraine, it means no EU membership, and its citizens should know that “Europeans will have to give their financial goodies to the American elites, not Ukrainian refugees.”………………………………………………………………………………….https://www.sott.net/article/487699-Ukrainians-will-benefit-from-Zelenskys-fall-exiled-opposition-leader

January 12, 2024 Posted by | politics, Ukraine | Leave a comment

Pentagon ‘out of money’ for Ukraine

 https://www.rt.com/news/590145-pentagon-no-money-ukraine/ 5Jan 24

The US Congress must approve additional funds to maintain the flow of arms to Kiev, a top general has said

The US government has exhausted its funds for military assistance to Ukraine, Pentagon spokesman Major General Patrick Ryder has said, noting that Washington is simply “out of money” unless lawmakers pass a new aid package.

Speaking to reporters at a Thursday briefing, Ryder explained that while the Pentagon is authorized to spend another $4.2 billion on weapons for Ukraine, the actual funds are not available and must be set aside by Congress.

“We have the authority to spend that [$4.2 billion] from available funds but wouldn’t have the ability to replenish the stocks by taking money out – or taking stuff out of our inventory,” the spokesman said, adding “We’re out of money.”

The admission came after Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that his country had no “plan B” without American military aid, reiterating demands for new combat drones, long-range missiles and air defense capabilities, among other gear.

Kuleba also noted growing political divisions In the US regarding Ukraine, as a vocal group of Republican critics have blocked the passage of additional aid funds while demanding sweeping immigration reforms. Though the party backed dozens of separate aid packages following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, some GOP members have soured on the American largesse in recent months, creating a widening partisan divide on the issue.

While President Joe Biden has urged lawmakers to pass a massive aid package including some $61 billion for Kiev, Congress has remained deadlocked for weeks amid Republican opposition, though independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema has said lawmakers are “closing in” on a deal. 

Nonetheless, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters on Thursday to expect decreases in US aid in the future, voicing hopes to eventually help Ukraine “build its own military industrial base so it can both finance and build and acquire munitions on its own.”

The United States has authorized nearly $45 billion in direct military assistance to Ukraine since the conflict with Russia escalated in early 2022, in addition to other indirect military aid and financial and humanitarian assistance. Moscow has repeatedly condemned Western arms shipments to Kiev, arguing they would only prolong the fighting and do little to deter its military aims.

January 8, 2024 Posted by | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Nuclear disasters–in–waiting

RICHARD STONE, Science 4 Jan 24

Having taken a heavy toll on Ukraine’s ecosystems and water resources, the war with Russia threatens to create a another environmental disaster: damage to the region’s extensive nuclear infrastructure—including 15 power reactors and three research reactors.

“There continues to be a highly precarious nuclear safety and security situation across Ukraine,” International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said in a statement after explosions were heard near the Khmelnitsky Nuclear Power Plant and its two Soviet-era reactors on 28 November 2023—the second near-miss in a single month at the site. “All of Ukraine’s nuclear facilities remain vulnerable, either directly if hit by a missile or indirectly if their off-site power supplies are disrupted.”

Russia’s assault on Ukrainian nuclear sites began on the very first day of the full-scale invasion. On 24 February 2022, troops overran the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, infamous for the explosion and fire there in 1986 that sent a plume of radioactive smoke into Western Europe. During 5 weeks of occupation, Russian soldiers ransacked labs and kicked up radioactive soil and dust as they dug trenches and slogged through contaminated forests in the exclusion zone around the defunct plant. To the east that spring, Russian troops frequently shelled the Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology, damaging a hall containing a subcritical nuclear reactor.

Shelling has also flared up repeatedly around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station, a complex of six reactors that constitutes Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. Russia captured the plant in March 2022 and the reactors were shut down 6 months later, eliminating the risk of a core meltdown. Still, a prodigious amount of nuclear material remains there: The reactor halls hold 1380 tons of fresh and spent uranium oxide fuel, and two repositories store an additional 2100 tons of spent fuel laced with nasty long-lived radionuclides—the ingredients, many Ukrainians fear, of a “dirty bomb” that would use conventional explosives to spread radioactive isotopes……………………………………….

The presence of IAEA observers at the Zaporizhzhia station since September 2022 has deterred the theft of dirty-bomb ingredients. But a major missile strike on one of its spent fuel repositories could turn the plant itself into a dirty bomb, spreading radioactive contamination in a radius of up to 30 kilometers, says Volodymyr Borysenko, a nuclear engineer with the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine’s Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants (ISPNPP).

Even a smaller strike could contaminate the reactor complex. And the spent fuel is also at risk from repeated electricity blackouts that have struck the plant, the latest in early December 2023. Diesel-fueled generators can supply power for up to 10 days, but a prolonged outage could be dangerous, as power is needed to pump cooling water into the plant’s uranium reactor cores and pools holding spent fuel.

A lesser known radioactive risk is situated about 150 kilometers upstream from the Zaporizhzhia plant on the Dnipro River. During the Cold War, the Prydniprovsky Chemical Plant was one of Europe’s largest uranium ore processing facilities. The complex accumulated some 40 million tons of tailings—leftovers of milling uranium—and other foul residues before it closed in 1992. By early 2022, Ukraine, with help from the European Union, had fenced off highly contaminated areas. But a missile or artillery strike on a tainted building or dump could disperse radioactive dust over the nearby city of Kamianske.

One relative bright spot is Chornobyl, where Ukrainian scientists are restoring labs damaged early in the war. But large parts of the exclusion zone remain off limits because of the threat of mines and unexploded ordinance, says ISPNPP Director Anatolii Nosovskiy. Complicating matters for radiation monitoring, he says, the Ukrainian army has built defensive fortifications in the zone, near the border with Belarus…………………. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adn7987 

January 7, 2024 Posted by | safety, Ukraine | Leave a comment

IAEA says its inspectors are denied access to parts of Ukraine nuclear plant .

 The head of the U.N. nuclear power watchdog said on Wednesday his
inspectors had been denied access to parts of Ukraine’s Russian-occupied
Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station and had yet to receive 2024 maintenance
plans for the facility. The plant was seized by Russia in the days
following Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Each side has accused the
other of shelling around the station, Europe’s largest, though its six
reactors now produce no electricity.

 Reuters 3rd Jan 2024

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/iaea-says-denied-access-parts-russia-controlled-power-station-2024-01-03/

January 6, 2024 Posted by | safety, Ukraine | Leave a comment

Zelensky promises to ‘cut off’ Crimea in 2024

The Russian peninsula will become the conflict’s “center of gravity,” the Ukrainian leader told The Economist

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has predicted that his country’s armed forces will “isolate” Crimea in 2024. The region, which joined Russia in 2014 following a bloody nationalist coup in Kiev, hosts Moscow’s Black Sea fleet.

Kiev will seek to cut off access to the peninsula by destroying the Kerch bridge, which connects it to the Russian mainland, Zelensky claimed. For this purpose, he once again demanded German-made long-range Taurus cruise missiles, which Berlin has so far refused to supply even after France and the UK provided Kiev with Storm Shadow missiles.

Zelensky blamed information leaks for the failure of Kiev’s much-hyped summer counteroffensive against Russia, but nevertheless shared new insights into the military’s top priorities for 2024, saying in an interview with The Economist that isolating Crimea is “extremely important.”

The Ukrainian president reiterated his ambitious goal of eventually restoring the country’s 1991 borders, but stopped short of making any promises or setting timelines. The immediate goal, he said, will be “to defend the east” and protect Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.

“Russia has to know that for us this is a military object,” he said.

According to President Vladimir Putin, Russian forces now hold the strategic initiative in the Ukraine conflict, while Kiev has largely been driven by political goals, with their efforts aimed at showing “their true masters at least some results.”

Zelensky also complained that the “mobilization of Ukrainian society and of the world” was much lower now than at the beginning of the conflict, admitting that any military success will depend on assistance from the West.

“Giving us money or giving us weapons, you support yourself. You save your children, not ours,” he claimed.

Kiev announced a general mobilization in February 2022, barring most men aged 18 to 60 from leaving the country, but the campaign has been marred by corruption and draft dodging. Following Ukraine’s disappointing summer counteroffensive, which according to Moscow cost Kiev nearly 160,000 troops, Zelensky recently announced a plan to raise 500,000 more soldiers to replace battlefield losses.

“Mobilization is not just a matter of soldiers going to the front. It is about all of us. It is the mobilization of all efforts,” he told The Economist. “Let’s be honest, we have switched to domestic politics… If we continue to focus on domestic politics, we need to call elections. Change the law, the constitution. But forget about counteroffensive actions and de-occupation.”

January 4, 2024 Posted by | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Ukraine confirms retreat from key Donbass town

 https://www.rt.com/news/589722-ukraine-confirms-maryinka-retreat/27 Dec 23

Kiev’s top general has acknowledged Russia’s capture of Maryinka, saying his forces pulled back to the outskirts

Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny has confirmed the retreat of his troops to the outskirts of Maryinka, a key Donbass town, where Russian forces claimed victory on Monday after months of fierce fighting for the stronghold.

Speaking at a press briefing on Tuesday, Zaluzhny acknowledged the pullback of Ukrainian troops from Maryinka, located to the west of Donetsk. He likened the heavy fighting for the town in recent months to Ukraine’s loss earlier this year of Artyomovsk (known as Bakhmut in Ukrainian).

“This is exactly the same as it was in Bakhmut – street by street, block by block, and our soldiers were being targeted – and the result is what it is,” Zaluzhny said. “This is a war, so the fact that we have now retreated to the outskirts of Maryinka and set up positions behind Maryinka in some areas is nothing that can cause any public outcry. Sadly, this is what war is like.”

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced on Monday that Moscow’s forces had fully liberated Maryinka. Ukrainian troops had dug in for nearly a decade, using the town as a key hub in their battles with Donbass separatists and later the Russian Army. President Vladimir Putin said the victory pushed Ukrainian units further away from Donetsk and would provide Russian troops wider operational freedom in future maneuvers.

Ukrainian officials have denied Russia’s claim of capturing Maryinka, saying that fighting for the town continued. However, Zaluzhny said Kiev’s troops remained only on the northern outskirts of the town. He added that although every inch of territory is important to Ukraine, “the lives of our soldiers are even more important to us.”

Kiev’s top general has clashed increasingly in recent months with President Vladimir Zelensky, whose office rebuked Zaluzhny in November for telling a Western media outlet that the conflict with Russia had reached a “stalemate.” Zelensky repeatedly hyped a long-awaited summer counteroffensive that cost Ukraine around 160,000 casualties and failed to make any significant battlefield gains.Russian forces achieved their main 2023 goal by thwarting the counteroffensive, Shoigu said on Tuesday. He added that the Russian military was steadily making strides toward overall victory in the conflict, “constantly taking more advantageous positions and expanding territories under its control in all directions.”

Russian forces achieved their main 2023 goal by thwarting the counteroffensive, Shoigu said on Tuesday. He added that the Russian military was steadily making strides toward overall victory in the conflict, “constantly taking more advantageous positions and expanding territories under its control in all directions.”

December 28, 2023 Posted by | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Ukraine losing 800 troops a day – ex-NATO officer

 https://www.rt.com/news/589421-ukraine-losses-attrition-morale/ 22 Dec 23

Kiev’s manpower is “significantly worn out” as Russia’s “strategy of attrition” is taking effect, a former German Air Force Colonel has said.

Around 800 Ukrainian troops are being killed and wounded daily amid the conflict with Russia, retired German Air Force Colonel and prominent military analyst Ralph D. Thiele has claimed. 

In an opinion piece for Focus magazine on Wednesday, Thiele, who used to serve in the personal staff of NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, claimed that Kiev needs to recruit more than 20,000 soldiers every month in order to replace its dead and injured. He did not reveal his sources or basis for his calculations, however.

Ukraine also requires additional personnel to be able to rotate its troops on the frontline, so that “exhausted soldiers” may recover and units may replenish their material supplies, he wrote.

According to Thiele, who now heads the Political-Military Society, EuroDefense (Germany) and StratByrd Consulting think tanks, “the highly motivated defense” and subsequent counteroffensive, which he described as “a thing of the past,” came at a “high price” for Ukraine.

Kiev’s manpower and hardware are “significantly worn out,” he said. “Western weapons systems are not miracle weapons and are wearing out,” the analyst added.

The worsening battlefield situation and decreasing Western support for Kiev are “eating away at the morale” of the Ukrainian troops, who “will have to save ammunition in a war of attrition and endure slaughter at the front without rest and without a greater sense of achievement,” Thiele stressed.

Russia has also lost “a large number of soldiers and huge amounts of material” during the conflict, but “it has much more of both than Ukraine,” he argued.

“Step by step, Russia’s superiority in the conflict with Ukraine is becoming more visible,” the analyst acknowledged. Moscow’s “strategy of attrition” is “taking effect” in terms of personnel, material, ammunition and morale, he said.

Thiele’s number of 800 Ukrainian soldiers being lost per day appears to be higher than the one announced by Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu at the expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry’s Board on Tuesday. According to Shoigu, some 400,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed or wounded since the start of the fighting in late February 2022. This means that, according to Russian figures, Kiev’s daily losses stand at around 600 servicemen.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who chaired the meeting, stressed that “we can say with confidence that our troops have the initiative” on the frontline with Ukraine. “In essence, we are doing what we consider necessary, what we want. Wherever… commanders decide active defense is best, it takes place. And where it is needed, we improve our positions,” Putin explained.

December 24, 2023 Posted by | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

400,000 Ukrainians Killed In Action Explains A Whole Lot

U.S. intelligence contacts have expressed shock as to just how far from reality the narrative being pushed by the Biden administration is from what’s happening in Ukraine and its real war losses.

BY TYLER DURDEN, FRIDAY, DEC 15, 2023 

Authored by Mike Fredenburg via The Epoch Times,

How many casualties has Ukraine suffered?

How many causalities has Russia suffered?

Answering these questions is critical to determining the best and most moral path forward for Ukraine and the United States.

Estimates of Ukrainians killed in action (KIA) range from a low of just over 30,000 to a high of over 400,000.

Obviously, these two estimates can’t be reconciled. And it really, really matters to the people of Ukraine which one is closer to the truth. While 30,000 deaths is tragic, anything approaching 400,000 KIA and the accompanying hundreds of thousands of causalities is a humanitarian catastrophe that makes talks of continuing offensive operations next year, or even believing in a stalemate, wishful thinking that will result in even more fruitless Ukrainian deaths.

Unsurprisingly, since the war began, the United States and its allies have unswervingly pushed the narrative that Russia is incurring far more casualties than Ukraine. This casualty narrative was critical to maintaining any plausibility that Ukraine could defeat a country that has four to five times more men of military age and that was recently rated as having the world’s most powerful military. Hence, given the need to maintain the plausibility of a Ukrainian victory, it isn’t surprising that NATO intelligence asserted that the battle of Bakhmut saw Russia losing at least five soldiers KIA for every one of Ukraine’s.

However, since the fall of Bakhmut to Russia, the failure of the much-hyped Ukrainian counteroffensive, and signs that Ukraine’s military is nearing collapse, we’re no longer hearing about five-to-one casualty rates. Still, the most recent estimates from United States and British officials claim that Russia has suffered 120,000 KIA while Ukraine has suffered “only” 70,000 KIA (more than the United States suffered in over 10 years of the Vietnam War).

But not everyone agrees with U.S./British casualty estimates for an army that started the war by mobilizing early 1 million men in arms and, over the course of the war, mobilized another estimated 1 million. Among the growing number of those who don’t agree is the former director of the Joint Operations Center at Supreme Headquarters Europe and one of the key leaders in achieving the legendary victory in the mass tank battle of 73 Easting, retired U.S. Army Col. Douglas Macgregor.

In a recent interview with myself, Col. Macgregor agreed that while estimates putting Russian KIA at as high as 50,000 to 60,000 are defensible, most estimates for Ukrainian KIAs are not.

In what many will undoubtedly find shocking given the countless stories disparaging Russia’s military skills and capabilities while uncritically fawning over Ukraine’s military prowess, Col. Macgregor puts Ukrainian KIA at over 400,000 out of the 2 million Ukraine has mobilized.

Col. Macgregor arrived at this shocking number using a wide variety of sources, including contacts within U.S. intelligence and contacts on the ground in Ukraine and Poland who have intimate knowledge of what’s really happening in Ukraine.

In particular, he noted that his U.S. intelligence contacts have expressed shock as to just how far from reality the narrative being pushed by the Biden administration is from what’s happening in Ukraine and its real war losses.

Likewise, Col. Macgregor’s Ukraine contacts relayed to him accounts of thousands of wounded Ukrainians being left to die on the battlefield, growing numbers of Ukrainian commanders and troops refusing orders to conduct suicide attacks against heavily fortified Russian positions, Ukrainian soldiers surrendering en masse to Russia, hospitals overflowing with Ukrainian wounded, and many other accounts that testify to horrendous casualty rates that contradict the narrative pushed by Western media.

Additionally, Col. Macgregor’s contacts have analyzed satellite imagery showing a massive expansion of Ukrainian cemeteries and countless tens of thousands of fresh graves. Other open-source intelligence analysis has also documented in detail Ukraine’s massive expansion of cemeteries that will soon allow Ukraine to reportedly bury 1.5 million more people. And a Russian analyst using death notices and other open-source intelligence has come up with Ukrainian KIA estimates of over 300,000.

But for Col. Macgregor, it’s the totality of the reports he has seen, his understanding of historical casualty rates, his personal military experience, and information from his sources that has brought him to the conclusion that Ukraine’s KIA is a magnitude greater than what’s commonly being reported.

These numbers, coupled with the fact the war could have been avoided had President Volodymyr Zelenskyy been knowledgeable and wise enough to understand that U.S./NATO promises of victory were completely unrealistic and couldn’t be relied upon, have led Col. Macgregor, who has fond memories of growing up in a Ukrainian immigrant neighborhood, to believe that the war is an absolute disaster for Ukraine that could have and should have been avoided.

“In humanitarian terms, this tragedy has resulted in the Ukrainian nation being destroyed in a war that never needed to be fought,” Col. Macgregor said…………………………………………………………………………………………………

Given the strong evidence that Ukraine is suffering country-destroying casualties, talk of a stalemate, much less of successful offensive territory-gaining operations, is more about face-saving than any realistic chance of Ukraine avoiding losing.

Hence, the only moral path forward for the United States is to tell President Zelenskyy it’s well past the time to sue for peace and that he must accept neutrality and the loss of the regions that seceded from Ukraine in 2014.

This is a bitter pill to swallow for Ukrainian nationalists and those in the United States who hoped Ukraine would do far more damage to Russiabut the alternative is accelerating Ukraine’s diminishing chances of remaining a viable nation-state, a whole lot more fruitless Ukrainian deaths, and peace terms substantially worse than those that can be negotiated today.  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/400000-ukrainians-killed-action-explains-whole-lot

December 17, 2023 Posted by | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

 Sad Clown with the Circus Closed Down*: Zelenskiy’s Demise

When it comes to love for the limelight and delusions of grandeur, Zelenskiy outstrips most politicians and not least of all Putin. Almost all politicians are egoistic, but Zelenskiy is narcissistic.

Zelenskiy’s inexperience and ego likely played pivotal roles in his disastrous decision-making.

Zelenskiy himself remained mired in personal corruption as the Pandora Papers demonstrated

Zelenskiy’s failures also have made him eminently expendable

by GORDONHAHN , December 11, 2023,  https://gordonhahn.com/2023/12/11/sad-clown-with-the-circus-closed-down-zelenskiys-demise/

Introduction

         Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zeleneksiy appears to be at the end of the line politically and perhaps biologically. Portraying himself as a fighter for peace, anti-corruption, and full democratization when he ran for and won the presidency in 2019, he proceeded to lead the country into war, further corruption, and de-republicanization (authoritarianization).

On both a personal and global level this is high tragedy. A superb comedian and actor stars in a television fictional series as the president of Ukraine, rises in popularity, wins the country’s presidency on a peace platform, and leads the country into a catastrophic, easily avoidable war that threatens the survival of his country and himself.

The unreality of Ukraine refracts in our century of simulacra and disinformation through this icon moved from the television screen to real life politics, and the tragedy of it all is sold as a heroic triumph on the road to universal democracy, peace, and brotherhood.

In the real world, however, there is a rub. The country is historically divided along every conceivable line (ethnic, linguistic, cultural, political, ideological, economic, and social), an almost accidental state cobbled together by communists but claimed by hapless republicans and determined ultra-nationalists. Thus, Zelenskiy becomes president of a fundamentally divided country further riven by schism as a result of two ‘revolutions’ – really revolts – and a civil war compounded by foreign (Russian) intervention.

                  ****************************

Zelenskiy’s emergence and victory are as surreal as the Maidan regime of which he assumed leadership. 

Continue reading

December 16, 2023 Posted by | history, PERSONAL STORIES, politics, Reference, Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Why Zelensky’s ‘Fantasy’ of Building Military-Industrial Hub in Ukraine is Doomed

 Sputnik,  12.12.2023

While in Washington DC, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with executives of US defense companies and outlined his plan to create an industrial defense hub in Ukraine. Will the plan fly?

Volodymyr Zelensky met top executives of BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, AeroVironment, and other companies of the US military-industrial complex at Ukraine House on his on-going visit to the US.

He told them that Ukraine is ready to jointly produce ammunition and weapons on its soil but needed their support. “We are ready to act quickly, and we have already started to do so, since we have no other way to change the system as we are at war,” the Ukrainian president said, offering US companies a stake in Ukrainian defense firms.

However, it’s unlikely that US defense contractors will rush to jump at the opportunity, said retired Colonel Anatoliy Matviychuk, a Russian military expert, who has experience in combat operations in Afghanistan and Syria.

I think that everything that Zelensky told them was his fantasies and his attempt to come up with something,” Matviychuk told Sputnik. “Who in their right mind would now invest money in a country that is practically non-existent? It’s gone. It lives as a subsidy fund of the budget of the United States of America.”

“Can Ukraine produce anything? I doubt it very much, because the production facilities are completely in tatters. I suppose there may be something there in Western Ukraine, but Western Ukraine has always been subsidized, there has never been heavy industry there. There are no industrial areas [in Western Ukraine], like there once were in Donetsk, Donbass, or like Yuzhmash [in Dnepropetrovsk]. I think Zelensky is simply detached from reality,” the expert continued.

It’s not the first time that Zelensky has lauded Ukraine’s non-existent industrial capacity: in August, the Ukrainian president announced that Kiev had increased its weapons and ammunition production. Commenting on the statement, military expert Alexei Leonkov explained to Sputnik that Ukraine’s production sites, which are largely focused on assembling drones, are routinely detected and destroyed by the Russian military. Leonkov added that most of Ukraine’s production prowess was destroyed soon after the collapse of the USSR due to the endemic corruption and power struggle in the Eastern European nations.

To complicate matters further, lots of Ukrainian engineers and rocket scientists fled the country after the beginning of the Russian special military operation in February 2022, noted Matviychuk, while many others have been mobilized and thrown into battle………………………………………………….

US and Poland Don’t Need Industrial Hub in Ukraine

The development of Ukraine’s industrial sector fits into a new strategy considered by American and Ukrainian officials. American decision-makers want Kiev to go on the defensive, dig in and replenish its weapon storages.

According to Matviychuk, Zelensky’s attempts to go in line with the proposed strategy stem from his fear to lose both the Ukrainian presidency and the West’s support………………………………………………. https://sputnikglobe.com/20231212/why-zelenskys-fantasy-of-building-military-industrial-hub-in-ukraine-is-doomed-1115539804.html

December 16, 2023 Posted by | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Ukraine asking US for military aid that doesn’t exist – New York Times


 https://www.rt.com/russia/588944-ukraine-us-military-aide/ 13 Dec 23

Kiev has “unrealistic expectations” about what Washington can provide, American officials told the outlet

Ukrainian commanders and civilian officials overestimate the ability of the US to supply the country with weapons and ammo amid the conflict with Russia and are asking for things that simply don’t exist, American officials have told the New York Times.

The administration of US President Joe Biden has provided Kiev with $111 billion in military and economic assistance since Moscow launched its military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. However, the White House recently warned that funds for the government of Vladimir Zelensky had almost run out, with hardline Republican lawmakers blocking the approval of another $106 billion ‘national security package’ for Ukraine and Israel.

Many in Kiev still “do not realize how precarious continued US funding for the war is,” the NYT said in an article on Monday. The unnamed US officials, who talked to the paper, insisted that “Ukraine will have to fight on a tighter budget.”

Some Ukrainian decision-makers have “unrealistic expectations about what the US will supply,” the sources said. “They are asking for millions of rounds of artillery, for example, from Western stockpiles that do not exist.”

After the failure of Kiev’s counteroffensive, the US and Ukraine are currently trying to work out “a new strategy,” the implementation of which is expected to begin in early 2024 in order to “revive Kiev’s fortunes,” the officials said.

According to the report, they are unable to find common ground so far. Washington wants Kiev to just focus on holding onto the territory it still controls, while building up forces and supplies over the course of the next year.

However, the Ukrainian military appears eager to continue to attack the Russian army on the ground or through airstrikes in order to “score symbolic victories” that they believe would attract more attention to the conflict around the globe, the sources explained.

“The stakes are huge” because “without both a new strategy and additional funding … Ukraine could lose the war,” the officials warned.

Amid discussions on the new strategy, the Pentagon has decided that Lieutenant General Antonio A. Aguto Jr, who oversees aid to Ukraine from a base in Germany, is going to spend lengthy periods of time on the ground in Kiev, they added.

Moscow has repeatedly warned that deliveries of weapons to Ukraine by the West will only prolong the fighting and increase the risk of a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO. Russian officials have also argued that the provision of arms, intelligence-sharing, and training Ukrainian troops means that the US and its allies have already become de facto parties to the conflict.

Speaking about the dependence of Kiev on Western aid, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday that Ukrainian troops were “running out of [everything]” because “they don’t have their own base.”

“When you don’t have your own base, don’t have your own ideology, don’t have your own industry, don’t have your own money, don’t have anything of your own, then there is no future,” Putin stated.

December 14, 2023 Posted by | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment