Cyber Threats and Nuclear Weapons: Assessing Risks
Cyber Threats and Nuclear Weapons: Assessing Risks, Insights from Herbert Lin. The Diplomat By Mercy A. Kuo, December 20, 2021 Trans-Pacific View author Mercy Kuo regularly engages subject-matter experts, policy practitioners, and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into U.S. Asia policy. This conversation with Dr. Herbert S. Lin – senior research scholar for cyber policy and security at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security at the Hoover Institution, both at Stanford University, and author of newly published “Cyber Threats and Nuclear Weapons” (Stanford University Press, 2021) ̶ is the 301st in “The Trans-Pacific View Insight Series.”
Define key elements of the U.S. nuclear enterprise.
The nuclear enterprise consists of everything that touches nuclear weapons issues, including nuclear weapons design and stewardship; nuclear delivery systems (e.g., missiles, submarines, bombers); nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3); nuclear planning and decision-making; and nuclear operations. Information technologies (also known as computing and communications technologies) are critical for all of these elements of the nuclear enterprise.
Identify plausible cyber risk scenarios of the U.S. nuclear enterprise. irst, an adversary may conduct a deliberate cyberattack against some element(s) of the U.S. nuclear enterprise that could compromise the U.S. ability to use its nuclear weapons when appropriate (e.g., in retaliation). A report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office probed cyber vulnerabilities in U.S. weapons systems (including some nuclear systems), noting that the Department of Defense routinely finds mission-critical cyber vulnerabilities during operational testing of weapons systems that are under development, pointing out that “using relatively simple tools and techniques, testers were able to take control of systems and largely operate undetected.” Exploitation of such vulnerabilities could cripple nuclear weapons delivery systems on the ground or in flight.
The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review also identifies adversary offensive cyber capabilities as creating new challenges and potential vulnerabilities for U.S. NC3, calling out challenges to network defense, authentication, data integrity, and secure, assured, and reliable information flow. Compromises to NC3 could disconnect the National Command Authority from U.S. nuclear forces, fail to provide warning of incoming nuclear attack, or falsely signal the existence of a nuclear attack.
A second type of cyber risk arises from the integration of nuclear and nonnuclear capabilities, which is often enabled by computing and communications technology. Such integration likely raises the risk of inadvertent nuclear escalation in times of conflict. For example, integrating nuclear and conventional systems confers operational advantages in warfighting, and is also generally less expensive than acquiring separate nuclear and conventional systems. But such advantages trade off against an increased possibility that cyberattacks directed against a dual-purpose system for non-nuclear reasons could be interpreted by U.S. decision-makers as an attack on U.S. nuclear capabilities, especially if those cyberattacks are coming from another nuclear power. Thus, they may feel more pressure to escalate up the nuclear ladder.
A second scenario is based on the fact that cyberattacks and cyber espionage/intelligence gathering use the same penetration techniques and differ only in what they seek to accomplish. Thus, any given cyber penetration carries with it an unknown potential for attack, for intelligence gathering, or both. A cyber penetration from China or Russia detected in U.S. NC3 system could be part of a relatively benign attempt to gather intelligence, or it could be the start of a serious cyberattack that is intended to degrade NC3. But it is impossible for U.S. decision-makers to know China’s or Russia’s intention before we observe the actual results of the penetration. If the United States detects a cyber penetration of its NC3 during a crisis or during the initial phases of a kinetic conflict, U.S. decision-makers may jump to a worst-case assessment.
Analyze the capabilities of China and North Korea in generating cyber nuclear risks.
Chinese and North Korean capabilities to generate cyber risks to the U.S. nuclear enterprise are not known in the unclassified literature. However, it is known that Chinese offensive cyber capabilities are world-class, and North Korea’s capabilities are substantial, even if not necessarily on a par with China’s at every level and for every contingency.
Furthermore, certain operational scenarios involving China in particular implicate a number of dual-purpose systems. ……………. https://thediplomat.com/2021/12/cyber-threats-and-nuclear-weapons-assessing-risks/
The French government asked EDF for earlier restart of nuclear reactors (now on maintenance)
The French government asked Electricite de France SA to restart some
nuclear reactors earlier than planned in order to help with a winter energy
crunch across Europe. Ecology Minister Barbara Pompili said on France Info
radio that she had asked EDF Chief Executive Officer Jean-Bernard Levy in a
meeting on Friday to restart more quickly than planned some reactors that
were halted for maintenance and scheduled to restart in mid-January.
Bloomberg 19th Dec 2021
Uncertainties persist, as France shuts down the 4 largest nuclear reactors, because of corrosion and cracks
Corrosion and cracks: the four largest French nuclear reactors shut down.
Four reactors were shut down by EDF, at the Civaux and Chooz power plants, due to a failure of an essential part in the event of an accident. Many uncertainties persist on the consequences of this discovery.
Reporterre 16th Dec 2021
Challenges 15th Dec 2021
France’s EDF takes more nuclear reactors offline after faults found.
| France’s EDF takes more nuclear reactors offline after faults found. French power giant EDF said on Wednesday it had found faults on pipes in a safety system at its Civaux nuclear power station, and it would shut down another plant because it used the same kind of reactors. The setback comes as France plans a major nuclear power station building program, diverging from neighbour Germany which retreated from nuclear power after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011. Reuters 15th Dec 2021 https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/edf-extend-civaux-nuclear-outage-shut-down-reactors-chooz-safety-measures-2021-12-15/ |
Call to rally against extending the lifespan of ageing Koeberg Nuclear Power Station
Call to rally against extending the lifespan of ageing Koeberg Nuclear Power Station, IOL. By Kristin Engel, 17 Dec, Cape Town – The Koeberg Alert Alliance (KAA) and the Southern African Faith Communities Environment Institute (Safcei), together with concerned Capetonians gathered on Bloubergstrand Beach for an anti-nuclear protest to question the safety of the nearby nuclear plant operated by Eskom.
The protesters’ chants of “down with nuclear” came as Eskom tries to extend the Koeberg plant’s operating life by another 20 years, after its initial 40-year lifespan ends in 2024, despite numerous challenges and safety concerns at the plant.
Safcei executive director Francesca de Gasparis said Eskom had been quiet about its plans for South Africa’s only nuclear power plant and have not provided information about this process or given the public sufficient evidence that it was safe and in the interests of electricity users to extend the lifespan of the ageing nuclear plant.
Ubuntu Rural Women and Youth Movement member Vainola Makan said: “We are certain that because of the lack of access to information and the lack of transparency, only private business individuals will benefit from this deal and the interests of citizens is of no concern.”
KAA spokesperson Peter Becker called on Eskom to shut down the Koeberg nuclear power plant as planned in 2024, and stop their attempts to extend its designed lifespan, especially with the old engineering and increasing problems at the plant.
However, the electricity supplier was adamant about the extension of the plant’s lifespan.
……… National Nuclear Regulator (NNR) spokesperson Gino Moonsamy said Eskom’s application would be undergoing a detailed review process in which the NNR would direct Eskom to publish the application for comment in local newspapers and serve notification letters to stakeholders.
Moonsamy said only after the NNR considered the insights and representations from public consultation, would they finalise the decision on the application and announce the decision on whether the plant would be able to operate beyond its current licensing basis. https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/news/call-to-rally-against-extending-the-lifespan-of-ageing-koeberg-nuclear-power-station-3826d950-5658-410e-9ca9-6dc8d2fc202b
Cracks cause Torness nuclear plant to close early
Cracks cause Torness nuclear plant to close early, The Ferret Rob Edwards. December 15, 2021
Spreading cracks at the Torness nuclear power station in East Lothian mean that it will have to close two years earlier than planned, according to its operator, EDF Energy.
The power company has told stakeholders it now expects to shut the station down in 2028 instead of 2030 because of “impacts on the graphite cores”.
The Ferret revealed in May 2020 that the cores of the two reactors at Torness were predicted to start cracking in 2022, six years earlier than previous thought. At the time EDF maintained that the station could keep generating electricity safety until 2030…………….
A similar reactor at Hunterston B nuclear power station in North Ayrshire was permanently closed down on 26 November 2021, after 46 years of operation. The station’s second reactor is due to be turned off before 7 January 2022, 15 months earlier than previously planned.
Hunterston is 12 years older than Torness, and has been plagued by increasing cracks in its graphite cores caused by radiation bombardment. The Ferret reported in October 2020 that EDF estimated that one of Hunterston’s reactors could end up with nearly a thousand cracks……………
Torness, near Dunbar, was officially opened in May 1989 by then-Conservative Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher. The site had been the target of anti-nuclear protests since 1978………….
Campaigners are seeking assurances that nuclear safety is not being compromised. “Problems with cracks in the graphite core which led to the closure of Hunterston B are clearly expected to cause similar problems at Torness,” said Pete Roche, an Edinburgh-based nuclear critic.
But Torness has a significant design difference likely to make the problem worse. Judging by statements made by the nuclear regulator it might be expected that Torness should close in 2024 or soon after.”
Roche suggested that EDF would strive to keep the station open as long as possible. “The Scottish Government should seek assurances from the Office of Nuclear Regulation that EDF will not be allowed to drag things out so long that safety is compromised,” he added.
Friends of the Earth Scotland argued that EDF had had to “admit the inevitable” and close earlier than planned. “The remaining question is whether they will make it even that far,” said the environment group’s director, Dr Richard Dixon.
“Nuclear is incredibly expensive, and suffers from complex problems like these cracks, as well as creating waste which will have to be looked after for thousands of years.”
Edinburgh Green councillor, Steve Burgess, also questioned how safe it was to keep running Torness. “This isn’t very reassuring news from Torness,” he said.
“Announcing that they are closing two years early, with mention of the graphite core, means EDF are acknowledging that they are coming hard up against a time when it really isn’t safe to operate.”………… more https://theferret.scot/torness-nuclear-plant-close-cracks/
EDF shuts down nuclear reactors on safety concerns
| Electricite de France SA’s 2021 earnings could take a slight hit from the temporary closure of reactors at two nuclear plants on safety grounds, the French energy company said late Wednesday. Faults were detected on both reactors during routine safety checks at EDF’s Civaux plant in France’s southwestern Vienne department, EDF said. The faults related to pipes on the safety injection system circuit, it said. The company and the country’s nuclear safety agency, the ASN, have decided to replace the affected parts on the two reactors, meaning their shutdown will be extended. EDF has also decided to shut down the two reactors at another nuclear plant at Chooz in the northeastern Ardennes department to check them for similar issues, since they use the same technology as those at Civaux. One will be shut down Thursday and the other Saturday, EDF said. Market Watch 16th Dec 2021 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/edf-shuts-down-nuclear-reactors-on-safety-concerns-revises-2021-target-271639637549 |
Iran and UN inspector reach agreement on reinstalling cameras at Karaj nuclear facility
Iran and the UN inspector have reached an agreement on the imminent reinstallation of cameras at the Karaj nuclear facility, a move that is seen as indispensable to keeping alive the broader nuclear talks and the lifting of US sanctions on Tehran. Those negotiations appear to be hanging by a thread judging by a string of negative comments from European diplomats when they discussed the progress of the talks at the UN security council on Tuesday. Guardian 16th Dec 2021 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/16/iran-un-inspector-agreement-cameras-nuclear-facility-us-sanctions |
Sweden’s Non Government Organisations want the government to reject nuclear repositary plans, on safety grounds
The new Minister of Climate and Environment Annika Strandhäll at a press
conference on December 8 presented a timetable for a decision on the
planned repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark, and a decision on
the extension of the current repository for short-lived radioactive waste
(SFR 2).
The nuclear fuel repository decision will be taken on January 27,
2022, and the SFR 2 decision already on December 22. The Swedish Society
for Nature Conservation, the Swedish Friends of the Earth and the Swedish
NGO Office for Nuclear Waste Review (MKG) want the government to say no to
both repositories.
The organisations are of the opinion that it has still
not been shown that the spent nuclear fuel repository is safe enough and
believe that the LOT experiment can, if necessary, be used to develop more
knowledge about copper as a canister material before a decision is made.
If the government intends to say yes to the start of construction repository,
the decision should follow the Swedish Council for Nuclear Waste’s proposal
to condition an approval to more research and that a separate decision
under the Environmental Code be given separately to start operation when
that time.
MKG 8th Dec 2021
EDF to delay maintenance outages at 3 nuclear reactors in France, to avoid a supply shortage
EDF will delay outages at three nuclear reactors in France – Flamanville
1, 2 (1,300 MW each) and Gravelines 3 (910 MW) – to avoid a supply crunch
this winter, its latest transparency data showed on Tuesday. A maintenance
outage at Flamanville 2 was postponed from 29 January.
Montel 14th Jan 2021
https://www.montelnews.com/news/1282408/edf-postpones-3-reactor-outages-to-avert-supply-crunch
Nuclear Free Local Authorities call for ”no watering down” of safety regulations regarding future nuclear fusion reactors
The Nuclear Free Local Authorities Network has called for ‘no watering
down’ of the safety regulations that will be applied to future fusion
reactors in its response to a public consultation by the Department of
Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy.
In his letter to the BEIS, Councillor David Blackburn, Chair of the NFLA Steering Committee, outlines
the many challenges and risks that would be posed by operating nuclear
fusion, including the risk posed by the large quantities of radioactive
wastes that would result and the danger of radioactive tritium entering the
water supply.
Most frightening is the requirement to constantly and safely
contain the immense temperatures needed to spark and sustain a fusion
reaction and the long-term damage that the whole structure will suffer from
prolonged exposure to neutron radiation, a situation which if not carefully
monitored could result in the very integrity of the reactor vessel being
placed in jeopardy.
NFLA 15th Dec 2021
To obtain authorisation to commission the Flamanville EPR nuclear reactor, EDF must get full infomation on the incident at the Taishan EPR reactor.
To obtain authorization to commission the Flamanville EPR, EDF will first have to shed light on the Taishan EPR 1 incident in China, the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) told Reporterre. Thursday, December 9. “ASN asked EDF to take account of the experience feedback from this event prior to the commissioning of the Flamanville EPR reactor.
To do this, EDF will either have to demonstrate that the Flamanville EPR is not affected, or propose
measures to prevent fuel degradation, “ASN wrote. “EDF is currently working in conjunction with the operator of Taishan (TNPJVC) and Framatome on the interpretation of the results of the checks on the fuel unloaded from the Taishan 1 reactor.
These analyzes aim to identify the phenomena that led to the rupture of the ducts. fuel and to determine whether the other EPR reactors are concerned, ”ASN added. The French nuclear gendarme says it has not obtained any information concerning the restart of Taishan 1 “which falls under the competence of its Chinese counterpart (NNSA)”.
Reporterre 13th Dec 2021
Westinghouse keen get new 40-year operating license for nuclear fuel plant, despite pollution, leakscand spills.
Westinghouse investing $131 million at nuclear fuel plant after recent leaks and spills, The State, BY NOAH FEIT AND SAMMY FRETWELL DECEMBER 15, 2021
Westinghouse will invest $131 million in its troubled nuclear fuel factory on Bluff Road under a plan that includes improving pollution controls at the facility, which has been plagued by leaks and spills and recently has drawn scrutiny from federal agencies about environmental problems…………..
Wednesday’s announcement is a potentially significant step in the company’s effort to gain a new 40-year operating license, which is critical to keeping the plant open.The current license expires in 2027, but Westinghouse is seeking a new license now to help ensure future stability of its business to customers. An environmental study for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission — a report criticized by some federal agencies as inadequate — recommended the 40-year license, as did an advisory panel to McMaster. But the U.S. Department of the Interior recommended a 20-year license because of pollution that has seeped into groundwater at the plant, a problem the department said could threaten nearby Congaree National Park. Making substantial improvements at Westinghouse could mollify some concerns about future environmental threats………..
According to plans, the company’s $131 million investment includes upgrades to equipment and procedures, increasing the company’s capacity and future growth………
Westinghouse’s fuel plant, which employs about 1,000 workers, has been under intense scrutiny the past five years because of spills and leaks, and information has surfaced about contaminated groundwater that had been unknown for years to regulators and the public. Among other troubles, uranium, a radioactive material, leaked through a hole in the plant’s floor and uranium built up in an air pollution control device, a problem that could have sent a burst of radiation inside the plant. Leaking containers also allowed toxins to dribble into the ground.
The U.S. Department of the Interior and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently voiced concerns about the plant in comment letters to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which is weighing whether to grant the 40-year license. The S.C. Department of Natural Resources also expressed reservations.
Bob Guild, a veteran environmental lawyer and local Sierra Club member, questioned the impact of the $131 million plant announcement. The news release did not explain in detail how much of the investment would be for specific improvements to protect the environment. It also did not address the legacy of pollution on the property. “I’m very skeptical that there is significant investment in pollution control,’’ he said.“To the extent they are committing resources to improving processes to ensure this doesn’t happen again, all the better,’’ Guild said. “But none of that addresses cleaning up contamination that is historic at the site.’’………….Read more at: https://www.thestate.com/news/business/article256614776.html#storylink=cpy
Call to halt UK’s Hinkley Point C new EPR nuclear reactor until problems at similar reactor in China resolved.
he Nuclear Free Local Authorities network (NFLA) has written to the
Minister of State for Energy and the Head of the Office of Nuclear
Regulation calling for an indefinite halt to construction work at the new
Hinkley Point C nuclear plant whilst the impact of the Taishan-1 nuclear
accident in China is investigated. T
The Chair of the NFLA Steering Committee, Councillor David Blackburn, has written to Minister Greg Hands and Chief Executive Mark Foy outlining concerns that a radioactive gas leak
at the Taishan 1 reactor in China has uncovered a potentially fatal design
flaw which could have a serious impact on the UK Government’s plans to
permit identical reactors to operate at Hinkley Point C in Somerset and at
Sizewell C in Suffolk. The Hinkley Point and Sizewell projects would both,
like Taishan-1. be equipped with EPRs (short for European Pressurised or
Evolutionary Power Reactors). EPR projects have a history of safety
concerns, massive delays and huge cost overruns. Although the Hinkley Point
C is planned to come on line in 2026, plants at Olkiluoto 3 in Finland and
Flammaville 3 in France are now 13 and 11 years behind schedule
respectively. Sizewell is still awaiting final government authorisation.
NFLA 13th Dec 2021
Safety Concerns Mount Over Damaged Fuel Rods at China’s Taishan Nuclear Plant
Safety Concerns Mount Over Damaged Fuel Rods at China’s Taishan Nuclear Plant
A French whistleblower claims that the real number of damaged fuel rods exceeds the figure acknowledged by officials, and that there may be issues with other reactors of the same design. By Jesse Turland The Diplomat December 11, 2021 On November 28 Radio France International Chinese published claims by a whistleblower contradicting official statements downplaying the extent of damage to fuel rods at the Taishan 1 Nuclear Reactor in Taishan, Guangdong province.
The whistleblower, who works at a French nuclear energy company, warned that more than 70 fuel rods were damaged, 14 times the figure acknowledged by China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) in June, when it stated “about five” rods were damaged. Additionally, the whistleblower claimed the damage may be linked to a “design flaw.”
Under pressure from public activism, France’s nuclear energy regulator, Autorité de sûreté nucléaire (ASN), yesterday announced it would halt the development of the EPR reactor at Flamanville in Normandy, which uses the same design as Taishan, pending inquiries into the malfunctions at Taishan.
There is still a lot of work to be done on the [Flamanville] site before start-up operations, and feedback from the experience of the Taishan 1 EPR deviation must take place,” said ASN deputy general manager Julien Collet yesterday.
Located 110 kilometers south of Guangzhou, Taishan is the site of the world’s first reactors of the Evolutionary Power Reactor (EPR) design to commence operation. Its two reactors are capable of generating 1,750 Megawatts electric (Mwe) each.
According to the whistleblower, the problem of the Taishan EPR reactor is “a not-very-successful hydraulic system at the bottom of the vessel which gives an uneven distribution of power in the assemblies. A transverse current is created in the core and causes the assemblies to move, especially those at the periphery.”
The whistleblower’s claims were relayed by Bruno Chareyron, director of the Commission for Independent Research and Information about Radiation (CRIIRAD), a Paris-based NGO established in 1986 to monitor radioactive leaks in the wake of the Chernobyl disaster.
According to the whistleblower, the problem of the Taishan EPR reactor is “a not-very-successful hydraulic system at the bottom of the vessel which gives an uneven distribution of power in the assemblies. A transverse current is created in the core and causes the assemblies to move, especially those at the periphery.”
The whistleblower’s claims were relayed by Bruno Chareyron, director of the Commission for Independent Research and Information about Radiation (CRIIRAD), a Paris-based NGO established in 1986 to monitor radioactive leaks in the wake of the Chernobyl disaster.
”
There are at least three consequences. One is the fact that due to the damage to the nuclear fuel, a significant amount of radioactive substances migrate across the cladding of the rods and is go into the water of the primary circuit,” according to Chareyron.
“So radioactive gases like krypton and xenon are accumulating in the water inside the pressure vessel… Those gases are collected into tanks and those tanks are opened to the atmosphere normally every two months. But with fuel rod damage, some of the gases released have half-lives of years, like Krypton 85.”
He continued: “[The] second problem is the impact on the people working in the plant. Because if you have such damage in the core of the reactor, you contaminate the water inside the pressure vessel, but some of this contamination will stay inside the tubes, the pipes, the pumps.
“So when the operators have to conduct maintenance, they receive much more radiation than if the cladding fitted properly.”
Finally, “The third problem is if the fuel assemblies are a little bit broken, it means that you may reach a situation when, for example, in case of an earthquake, you cannot insert the control rods into the fuel assemblies because the assemblies are damaged,” Chareyron said…………….
Jesse Turland
Jesse Turland holds a degree in Chinese language and Asian Studies from the University of Melbourne and writes about contemporary Chinese society. https://thediplomat.com/2021/12/safety-concerns-mount-over-damaged-fuel-rods-at-chinas-taishan-nuclear-plant/
1 This Month
petition to oppose the rapid increase of space-military industry threatening Jeju Island and the region.
[Petition by April 19th (KST)] Stop the joint military-Hanwha Systems-Jeju Provincial Government Sea Launch!
Chernobyl: The Lost Tapes – A good documentary on Chernobyl on SBS available On Demand for the next 3 weeks– https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/tv-program/chernobyl-the-lost-tapes/2352741955560
of the week–London Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament
Tell the Ukrainian Government to Drop Prosecution of Peace Activist Yurii Sheliazhenko
To see nuclear-related stories in greater depth and intensity – go to https://nuclearinformation.wordpress.com
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