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Iran says nuclear site attack proved military option is futile

Iran’s foreign minister said last month’s attacks on its nuclear facilities
proved that military pressure cannot stop its atomic program, warning that
only diplomacy can prevent further conflict, in an interview broadcast
Saturday.

Speaking on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization
meeting, Abbas Araghchi said Iran remains open to a negotiated deal but
only if the US “puts aside military ambitions” and compensates for past
actions. “There is no military option to deal with Iran’s nuclear
program,” he told CGTN. “There should be only a diplomatic solution.”
He added that Iran is ready to re-engage in talks, but only “when they
put aside their military ambitions.”

Iran International 19th July 2025, https://www.iranintl.com/en/202507191773

July 21, 2025 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Hiroshima to Today: Confronting the Nuclear Threat

Kate Hudson: As we commemorate the eightieth anniversary of the criminal
attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki by US atomic bombs, we must recognise
that we are closer than ever to nuclear war.

The war on Ukraine has greatly
increased the risk. So too has Nato’s location of upgraded nuclear weapons
across Europe — including Britain — and Russia’s resultant siting of
similar weapons in Belarus. Irresponsible talk suggesting that
“tactical” nuclear weapons could be deployed on the battlefield — as
if radiation can be constrained in a small area — has made nuclear use
more likely.

And last year, after decades of reductions since the end of
the Cold War, the global nuclear stockpile increased. Governments across
Europe are making these problems worse. They are leading a massive
programme of rearmament, including talk of European nuclear proliferation;
but they are in denial about the dangers it is unleashing. This is a bad
time for humanity — and for all forms of life on Earth.

It’s time for us
to stand up and say No: we refuse to be taken into nuclear Armageddon.

Labour Outlook 19th July 2025,
https://labouroutlook.org/2025/07/19/hiroshima-to-today-confronting-the-nuclear-threat/

July 21, 2025 Posted by | weapons and war | Leave a comment

Japanese Doctor Picked for U.N. Panel on Nuclear War Impact.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has appointed 21 experts, including
Japanese doctor Masao Tomonaga, who survived the 1945 U.S. atomic bombing
of the southwestern Japan city of Nagasaki, as members of a panel to
examine the possible impact of a nuclear war.

The independent panel was set
up based on a resolution adopted by the U.N. General Assembly in December
last year. It consists of specialists in various fields, including nuclear
and radiation studies, climate, environment, medicine and agriculture. It
will examine the effects of a nuclear war on public health, ecosystems and
global socioeconomic systems at both regional and global levels. The panel
is set to hold its first meeting in September and submit a report to the
U.N. General Assembly in 2027.

Jiji press 19th July 2025,
https://jen.jiji.com/jc/eng?g=eco&k=2025071900252

July 21, 2025 Posted by | weapons and war | Leave a comment

Iran pushes back on EU pressure as clock ticks on nuclear talks

 Any new nuclear deal must meet what Iran describes as fair and balanced
terms, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Friday, after a call with
European ministers who urged Tehran to return to talks before the end of
August or face the possible return of UN sanctions.

“It was the US that
withdrew from a two-year negotiated deal, coordinated by the EU in 2015,
not Iran,” Araghchi wrote on X after a joint teleconference with the
foreign ministers of France, Britain, Germany, and the EU’s top diplomat.
“And it was the US that left the negotiation table in June this year and
chose a military option instead, not Iran.”

“Any new round of talks is
only possible when the other side is ready for a fair, balanced, and
mutually beneficial nuclear deal,” he added. Araghchi warned the EU and
E3 powers to abandon “worn-out policies of threat and pressure,”
referring specifically to the “snapback” mechanism, which he said they
have “absolutely no moral and legal ground” to invoke.

 Iran International 18th July 2025,
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202507180912

July 21, 2025 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

UK’s nuclear push may hand investors a cushy deal

while the financing looks “private”, the real backstop is public.

Yawen Chen, July 18, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/uks-nuclear-push-may-hand-investors-cushy-deal-2025-07-18/

Brookfield’s (BAM.TO), opens new tab reported plan to take a 25% stake, opens new tab in the Sizewell C nuclear project would mark a big vote of confidence in Britain’s atomic energy revival. But while it suggests that private capital could play a role in funding the country’s energy security, taxpayers are likely to take much of the risk.

The Canadian giant is no stranger to infrastructure, but nuclear power comes with high upfront costs, delays and cost overruns. Sizewell C could cost up to 40 billion pounds ($54 billion) to build, the Financial Times says, up from the latest government estimate of 20 billion pounds.

Britain’s track record is far from reassuring. Take Hinkley Point C, which was majority owned by EDF. Construction began in 2017 and was originally expected to be completed in 2025 and cost 18 billion pounds. It is now unlikely to be operational before 2030, with the overall cost revised to up to 35 billion pounds in 2015 prices. EDF had little protection against those delays as the chief backing it got from the government came from energy price commitments, which kick in when the plant is running.

Bringing in private investors may therefore require a new approach. That’s why the government passed legislation in 2022 so that the Sizewell C plant will be financed via a model, opens new tab seen in utilities like water companies or energy networks, dubbed the regulated asset base (RAB). That model fixes an allowed return to investors by passing on costs to consumers. Crucially, it allows a project to generate revenue from the moment construction begins, instead of only when it becomes operational.

The closest precedent is probably London’s Thames Tideway Tunnel, which funded the construction of a new sewer. There, consumer bills are charged enough to cover a blended return to debt and equity investors, or weighted average cost of capital (WACC), of 2.5% over inflation while the project is under construction. Given the risks in nuclear, industry experts reckon a WACC of 4% above inflation is more likely, equivalent to a nominal rate of 6%. And, as with Thames Tideway, nuclear plants will likely require a commitment from the government for it to compensate investors if cost overruns exceed a certain threshold.

That’s means the RAB model could easily end up becoming pretty expensive. The National Audit Office’s modelling suggests that the WACC of a hypothetical nuclear project could rise to 9% if expenses were to come over budget by between 75% and 100%. As Hinkley Point showed, that’s quite plausible.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer may not have much choice. The government says
, opens new tab
 it needs new nuclear power stations to help its transition to net zero and ensure energy security threatened by Russia. And Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be loath to fund them all on balance sheet, given the country’s fiscal state. Brookfield’s interest shows that institutional investors may be able to step up. But while the financing looks “private”, the real backstop is public.

Context News

UK energy secretary Ed Miliband said in June that Sizewell C would be the beginning of a “golden age” for nuclear in Britain. He also said the project would be “majority public funded”. The government has committed 14.2 billion pounds

The UK government is closing in on a final deal to secure private investment into the Sizewell C nuclear power project. Its 84% stake in the development is expected to be diluted to around 47.5%, with Canadian investor Brookfield Asset Management, British energy supplier Centrica and French energy giant EDF holding the remainder, the Financial Times reported on July 9 citing people with knowledge of the ongoing negotiations.

Brookfield is likely to take a 25% stake, with Centrica buying 15%, the report said.

France’s state-owned EDF, which is leading the development of the site, said on July 8 it would reduce its holdings to 12.5%.

July 21, 2025 Posted by | business and costs, UK | Leave a comment

Office for Nuclear Regulation says its ‘insufficient organisational capability’ is increasing strategic risk.

18 Jul, 2025 By Tom Pashby

 The Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR) has identified its “insufficient
organisational capability” as an increasing strategic risk in its latest
annual report. The risks are: Insufficient organisational capability, the
ONR being ineffective at discharging its duties as a regulator, failure to
deliver objectives due to an inability to respond to incidents, poor
knowledge management, inflexible funding, the impact of changes to deliver
leadership and insufficient security controls.

Each of these risks has been
analysed on whether it is static, increasing or decreasing. Notably, it
said the risk of “insufficient organisational capability” was found to
be increasing. This has “matured out of the former Insufficient
Organisational Capability and Capacity risk to allow for an enhanced focus
on the capability of the organisation. “We have implemented a review of
regulatory competence and capacity to meet future regulatory
requirements.” An ONR spokesperson told NCE: “The government has
announced its biggest expansion of nuclear power in several decades and so
maintaining a resilient regulatory capability and capacity to deliver our
mission remains a key priority.

 New Civil Engineer 18th July 2025, https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/office-for-nuclear-regulation-says-its-insufficient-organisational-capability-is-increasing-strategic-risk-18-07-2025/

July 21, 2025 Posted by | safety, UK | Leave a comment

80 Years After Trinity

No longer represented as a plausible deterrent, the bomb now stood poised to become what Los Alamos Director J. Robert Oppenheimer would describe shortly after the war as “weapons of terror, of surprise, of aggression… [used] against an essentially defeated enemy.”

Why Was There So Little Dissent at Los Alamos and What Does It Mean Today?

By Eric Ross, 17 July 25, https://tomdispatch.com/80-years-after-trinity/

In recent months, nuclear weapons have reemerged in global headlines. Nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan approached the brink of a full-scale war, a confrontation that could have become an extinction-level event, with the potential to claim up to two billion lives worldwide.

The instability of a global order structured on nuclear apartheid has also come into sharp relief in the context of the recent attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States. That system has entrenched a dangerous double standard, creating perverse incentives for the proliferation of world-destroying weaponry, already possessed by nine countries. Many of those nations use their arsenals to exercise imperial impunity, while non-nuclear states increasingly feel compelled to pursue nuclear weapons in the name of national security and survival.

Meanwhile, the largest nuclear powers show not the slightest signs of responsibility or restraint. The United States, Russia, and China are investing heavily in the “modernization” and expansion of their arsenals, fueling a renewed arms race. And that escalation comes amid growing global instability contributing to a Manichean world of antagonistic armed blocs, reminiscent of the Cold War at its worst.

The nuclear threat endangers not only global peace and security but the very continuity of the human species, not to speak of the simple survival of life on Earth. How, you might wonder, could we ever have arrived at such a precarious situation?

The current crisis coincides with the 80th anniversary of the Trinity Test, the first detonation of an atomic weapon that would soon obliterate the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and so inaugurate the atomic age. So many years later, it’s worth critically reassessing the decisions that conferred on humanity such a power of self-annihilation. After all, we continue to live with the fallout of the choices made (and not made), including those of the scientists who created the bomb. That history also serves as a reminder that alternative paths were available then and that another world remains possible today.

A Tale of Two Laboratories

In the summer of 1945, scientists and technicians at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico worked feverishly to complete the construction of the atomic bomb. Meanwhile, their colleagues at the University of Chicago’s Metallurgical Laboratory mounted a final, ultimately unsuccessful effort to prevent its use.

The alarm spreading in Chicago stemmed from a sobering realization. The Manhattan Project that they had joined on the basis of a belief that they were in an existential arms race with Nazi Germany had, by then, revealed itself to be a distinctly one-sided contest. Until then, the specter of a possible German atomic bomb had conferred a sense of urgency and a veneer of moral legitimacy on what many scientists otherwise recognized as a profoundly unethical undertaking.

Prior to the fall of Berlin, Allied intelligence had already begun to cast serious doubt on Germany’s progress toward developing an atomic weapon. By April 1945, with the Nazi regime in a state of collapse and Japan’s defeat imminent, the threat that served as the original justification for the bomb’s development had all but vanished.

No longer represented as a plausible deterrent, the bomb now stood poised to become what Los Alamos Director J. Robert Oppenheimer would describe shortly after the war as “weapons of terror, of surprise, of aggression… [used] against an essentially defeated enemy.”

By that point, it was evident that the bomb would be used not to deter Germany but to destroy Japan, and not as the final act of World War II but as the opening salvo of what would become the Cold War. The true target of the first atomic bomb wasn’t, in fact, Tokyo, but Moscow, with the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki sacrificed on the altar of American global imperial ambition.

For the scientists at Chicago, that new context demanded new thinking. In June 1945, a committee of physicists led by James Franck submitted a report to Secretary of War Henry Stimson warning of the profound political and ethical consequences of employing such a bomb without exhausting all other alternatives. “We believe,” the Franck Report stated, “that the use of nuclear bombs for an early, unannounced attack against Japan [would be] inadvisable.” The report instead proposed a demonstration before international observers, arguing that such a display could serve as a gesture of goodwill and might avert the need to use the bombs altogether.

One of that report’s signatories, Leo Szilard, who had been among the bomb’s earliest advocates, further sought to prevent what he had come to recognize as the catastrophic potential outcome of their creation. With Germany defeated, he felt a personal responsibility for reversing the course he had helped set in motion. Echoing concerns articulated in the Franck Report, he drafted a petition to be circulated among the scientists. While acknowledging that the bomb might offer short-term military and political advantages against Japan, he warned that its deployment would ultimately prove morally indefensible and strategically self-defeating, a position which would also be held by six of the seven U.S. five-star generals and admirals of that moment.

Szilard emphasized that the atomic bomb wasn’t just a more powerful weapon but a fundamental transformation in the nature of warfare, an instrument of annihilation. He already feared Americans might come to regret that their own government had sown the seeds of global destruction by legitimizing the sudden obliteration of Japanese cities, a precedent that would render a heavily industrialized, densely populated country like the United States especially vulnerable.

Moreover, he concluded that using such weapons of unimaginable destructive power without sufficient military justification would severely undermine American credibility in future arms control efforts. He observed that the development of the bomb under conditions of extreme wartime secrecy had created an abjectly anti-democratic situation, one in which the public was denied any opportunity to deliberate on such an irrevocable and consequential decision.

As Eugene Rabinowitch, a co-author of the Franck Report (who would later co-found The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists), would note soon after, the scientists in Chicago were growing increasingly uneasy in the face of escalating secrecy: “Many scientists began to wonder: against whom was this extreme secrecy directed? What was the sense of keeping our success secret from the Japanese? Would it have helped them to know that we had an atomic bomb ready?”

Rabinowitch concluded that the only “danger” posed by such a disclosure was that the Chicago scientists might be proven right, and Japan might surrender. “Since there was no justifiable reason to hold the bomb secret from the Japanese,” he argued, “many scientists felt that the purpose of deepened secrecy was to keep the knowledge of the bomb… from the American people.”

In other words, officials in Washington were concerned that a successful demonstration might deprive them of the coveted opportunity to use the bomb and assert their newly acquired monopoly (however temporary) on unprecedented power.

The Road to Trinity and the Cult of Oppenheimer

Seventy scientists at Chicago endorsed the Szilard Petition. By then, however, their influence on the project had distinctly diminished. Despite their early contributions, notably the achievement of the first self-sustained nuclear chain reaction in December 1942, the project’s center of gravity had shifted to Los Alamos.

Recognizing this, Szilard sought to circulate the petition among his colleagues there, too, hoping to invoke a shared sense of scientific responsibility and awaken their moral conscience in the critical weeks leading up to the first test of the weapon. Why did that effort fail? Why was there so little dissent, debate, or resistance at Los Alamos given the growing scientific opposition, bordering on revolt, that had emerged in Chicago?

One answer lies in Oppenheimer himself. In popular culture and historical scholarship, his legacy is often framed as that of a tragic figure: the reluctant architect of the atomic age, an idealist drawn into the ethically fraught task of creating a weapon of mass destruction compelled by the perceived exigencies of an existential war.

Yet the myth of him as a Promethean figure who suffered for unleashing the fundamental forces of nature onto a society unprepared to bear responsibility for it obscures the extent of his complicity. Far from being a passive participant, in the final months of the Manhattan Project, he emerged as a willing collaborator in the coordination of the coming atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

When Oppenheimer and physicist Edward Teller (who would come to be known as “the father of the hydrogen bomb”) received Szilard’s petition, neither shared it. While Oppenheimer offered no response, Teller provided a striking explanation: “The things we are working on are so terrible that no amount of protesting or fiddling with politics will save our souls.” He further rejected the idea that he held any authority to influence the bomb’s use. “You may think it is a crime to continue to work,” he conceded, “but I feel that I should do the wrong thing if I tried to say how to tie the little toe of the ghost to the bottle from which we just helped it escape.”

Teller later claimed to be in “absolute agreement” with the petition, but added that “Szilard asked me to collect signatures… I felt I could not do so without first seeking Oppenheimer’s permission more directly. I did so and Oppenheimer talked me out of it, saying that we as scientists have no business meddling in political pressure of that kind… I am ashamed to say that he managed to talk me out of [it].”

Teller’s explanation was likely self-serving given his later acrimonious rift with Oppenheimer over the hydrogen bomb. Yet further evidence indicates that Oppenheimer actively sought to suppress debate and dissent. Physicist Robert Wilson recalled that upon arriving at Los Alamos in 1943, he raised concerns about the broader implications of their work and the “terrible problems” it might create, particularly given the exclusion of the Soviet Union, then an ally. The Los Alamos director, Wilson remembered, “didn’t want to talk about that sort of thing” and would instead redirect the conversation to technical matters. When Wilson helped organize a meeting to discuss the future trajectory of the project in the wake of Germany’s defeat, Oppenheimer cautioned him against it, warning that “he would get into trouble by calling such a meeting.”


The meeting nonetheless proceeded, with Oppenheimer in attendance, though his presence proved stifling. “He participated very much, dominating the meeting,” Wilson remembered. Oppenheimer pointed to the upcoming San Francisco Conference to establish the United Nations and insisted that political questions would be addressed there by those with greater expertise, implying that scientists had no role to play in such matters and ought to abstain from influencing the applications of their work.

Reflecting on his mindset at the time, Oppenheimer explained, “When you see something that is technically sweet, you go ahead and do it and you argue about what to do about it only after you have had your technical success. That is the way it was with the atomic bomb.” In a similar vein, his oft-quoted remark that “the physicists have known sin” was frequently misinterpreted. He was not referring, he insisted, to the “sin” of the destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but to pride for “intervening explicitly and heavy-handedly in the course of human history.”

When situated within this broader context of a professed commitment to scientific detachment, Oppenheimer’s behavior becomes more intelligible. In practice, however, his stated ideals stood in stark contrast to his conduct. While he claimed to reject political engagement, he ultimately intervened in precisely such a manner, using his position to advocate forcefully for the bomb’s immediate military use against Japan without prior warning. He emerged as a leading opponent of any prospective demonstration, cautioning that it would undermine the psychological impact of the bomb’s use, which could only be realized through a sudden, unannounced detonation on a relatively untouched, non-military target like the city of Hiroshima. This position stood in sharp contrast to that of the Chicago scientists, of whom only 15% supported using the bomb in such a manner.


That climate of deference fostered a culture of complicity, where questions of social responsibility were subordinated to uncritical faith in authority. Reflecting on that dynamic, physicist Rudolf Peierls acknowledged, “I knew that Oppenheimer was on a committee and was briefing with the high-ups. I felt there were two things one could rely on: Oppenheimer to put the reasonable ideas across, and that one could trust people. After all, we are not terrorists at heart or anything… Both these statements might now be somewhat optimistic.”

Ultimately, the only member of Los Alamos to register dissent was Joseph Rotblat, who quietly resigned on ethical grounds after learning in November 1944 that there was no active Nazi atomic bomb program. His departure remained a personal act of conscience, however, rather than an effort to initiate a broader moral reckoning within the scientific community.

“Remember Your Humanity”


The legacy of Oppenheimer, a burden we all now carry, lies in his mistaking proximity to power for power itself. Rather than using his influence to restrain the bomb’s use, he exercised what authority he had to facilitate its most catastrophic outcome, entrusting its consequences to political leaders who soon revealed their recklessness. In doing so, he helped lay the groundwork for what President Dwight D. Eisenhower would, in his farewell address to Congress in 1961, warn against as “the disastrous rise of misplaced power.”

Yet we are not doomed. This history should also remind us that the development and use of nuclear weapons was not inevitable. There were those who spoke out and a different path might well have been possible. While we cannot know exactly how events would have unfolded had dissent been amplified rather than suppressed, we can raise our own voices now to demand a safer, saner future. Our collective survival may well depend on it. How much longer a world armed with nuclear weapons can endure remains uncertain. The only viable path forward lies in renewing a commitment to, as Albert Einstein and Bertrand Russell urged, “remember your humanity, and forget the rest.” With ever more nations developing increasingly powerful arsenals, one thing remains clear: as the Doomsday Clock moves ever closer to midnight, there is no time to waste.

July 20, 2025 Posted by | Religion and ethics, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

New Study on Cancers near NPPs: additional comments

 IanFairlie.org 17th July 2025, https://www.ianfairlie.org/news/new-study-on-cancers-near-npps-additional-comments/

Additional Comments on New Study on Cancers Near UK NPPs*.

The recent Davies et al study  (2025) https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf107 concluded that no increased cancers occur  near UK nuclear facilities. On July 16, I placed initial reservations re the above study on my website. These remain correct so may be used with confidence.

However on closer examination the study has the additional shortcomings listed below.

First, the study makes several incorrect statements. It states[1] “Our work {shows}  that the clusters of cancer identified in proximity to Sellafield and Dounreay between 1955 and 1991 are no longer present after 1991.” But if one examines their detailed Supplementary data in Table S3[2] for 1995-2016, one sees that around Dounreay, for 0-4 year old children, the SIR[3] is 1.56 for solid cancers and 1.99 for CNS tumours. Ie increases in cancer incidences. Similarly around Sellafield, for 10-14 year old children, the SIR is 1.65 for solid cancers and 1.46 for CNS tumours.  Again increased cancer incidences.

Also, on Imperial College’s website, https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/266256/no-increased-risk-childhood-cancer-near/, the lead author stated “As the UK government announces a multibillion-pound investment for new nuclear energy infrastructure, our findings should provide reassurance that the historical clusters of childhood cancers reported near sites such as Sellafield and Dounreay are no longer evident.”

This statement is of doubtful veracity. The study examined data only to 2016:  is it correct to assert nine years later in 2025 that the clusters are “no longer evident”?

Second, my initial comments criticised the choice of a very large 25 km radius around NPPs in which to conduct its studies.  But another methodological criticism exists. The best source of information about cancers near NPPs, the Kikk study (see below) observed cancer increases only among children near NPPs aged under 5.  Unfortunately the Davies et al study does not examine ill health in under 5 year olds near NPPs.

This study unfortunately shows that by careful manipulation of epidemiological parameters, almost any desired result, or non-result, can be achieved.

Childhood cancers near NPPs

New Study on Cancers near NPPs: additional comments

July 17, 2025

Additional Comments on New Study on Cancers Near UK NPPs*.

The recent Davies et al study  (2025) https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf107 concluded that no increased cancers occur  near UK nuclear facilities. On July 16, I placed initial reservations re the above study on my website. These remain correct so may be used with confidence.

However on closer examination the study has the additional shortcomings listed below.

First, the study makes several incorrect statements. It states[1] “Our work {shows}  that the clusters of cancer identified in proximity to Sellafield and Dounreay between 1955 and 1991 are no longer present after 1991.” But if one examines their detailed Supplementary data in Table S3[2] for 1995-2016, one sees that around Dounreay, for 0-4 year old children, the SIR[3] is 1.56 for solid cancers and 1.99 for CNS tumours. Ie increases in cancer incidences. Similarly around Sellafield, for 10-14 year old children, the SIR is 1.65 for solid cancers and 1.46 for CNS tumours.  Again increased cancer incidences.

Also, on Imperial College’s website, https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/266256/no-increased-risk-childhood-cancer-near/, the lead author stated “As the UK government announces a multibillion-pound investment for new nuclear energy infrastructure, our findings should provide reassurance that the historical clusters of childhood cancers reported near sites such as Sellafield and Dounreay are no longer evident.”

This statement is of doubtful veracity. The study examined data only to 2016:  is it correct to assert nine years later in 2025 that the clusters are “no longer evident”?

Second, my initial comments criticised the choice of a very large 25 km radius around NPPs in which to conduct its studies.  But another methodological criticism exists. The best source of information about cancers near NPPs, the Kikk study (see below) observed cancer increases only among children near NPPs aged under 5.  Unfortunately the Davies et al study does not examine ill health in under 5 year olds near NPPs.

This study unfortunately shows that by careful manipulation of epidemiological parameters, almost any desired result, or non-result, can be achieved.

Childhood cancers near NPPs

The study purports to examine the issue of childhood cancers near NPPs, but an ecological study like this is the poorest way to do so. It may be cheap and quick but its results are not particularly reliable. One has to look for better evidence from case-control studies or from meta studies which group together several similar studies to reach sufficient size for statistical confidence to be established.

In fact, the best available epidemiological evidence is the 2008 Kikk[4] case-control study (Spix et al, (2008); Kaatsch et al (2008)) commissioned by the German Federal government which examined cancers near all 19 German nuclear reactors.  It was conducted over a 3 year period by a crack team of German epidemiologists at Mainz University: apparently no expense was spared.

The problem is that the KiKK study found a 120% increase in leukemias and a 60% increase in all cancers among infants and children under 5 years old living within 5 km of all German NPPs. The increase of risk with proximity to the NPP site, tested with a reciprocal distance trend, was statistically significant for all cancers (p < 0.0034, one-sided), as well as for leukemias (p < 0.0044, one-sided).

Clearly the Imperial researchers did not wish to discuss these disturbing findings, but an unbiased study discussion would have.

Indeed much epidemiological evidence indicates increased leukaemia and solid cancer risks near  nuclear plants all over the world. Laurier and Bard (1999) and Laurier et al (2008) examined the literature on childhood leukaemia near NPPs world-wide. These identified a total of over 60 studies[5]. An independent review of these studies (Fairlie and Körblein, 2010) indicated the large majority (>70%5) showed small increases in childhood leukaemia although many findings were not statistically significant. Laurier et al were employees of the French Government’s Institut de Radioprotection et Sûreté Nucléaire: they confirmed that clusters of childhood leukaemia cases existed near NPPs but refrained from drawing any conclusions.

Fairlie and Körblein (2010) in their review of the above studies concluded that the evidence indicating increased leukaemia rates near nuclear facilities, specifically in young children, was convincing. This conclusion was supported by two meta-analyses of national multi-site studies. Baker and Hoel (2007) assessed data from 17 research studies covering 136 nuclear sites in the UK, Canada, France, the US, Germany, Japan, and Spain. In children up to nine years old, leukaemia death rates were 5% to 24% higher and leukaemia incidence rates were 14% to 21% higher. However their analysis was criticised by Spix and Blettner (2010) authors of the KiKK study – see below.

The second meta-analysis by Körblein and Fairlie (2012) covering NPPs in Germany, Switzerland, France and the UK also found a statistically significant increased risk of child leukemias and relative risk of leukaemia deaths near NPPs (RR = 1.37; one-tailed p value = 0.0246). Further studies (Guizard et al, 2001; Hoffman et al, 2007) in France and Germany indicated raised leukaemia incidences.  Later, Bithell et al (2008) and Laurier et al (2008) found increases in child leukemias near UK and French NPPs respectively. In both cases, the numbers were low and the results not statistically significant.

Ultimately we should rely on the KiKK study as it was a large, well-conducted study; its findings were scientifically rigorous; its evidence was particularly strong; and the German government’s radiation protection agency, the Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz (BfS) confirmed its findings. A BfS appointed expert group stated (BfS, 2008)

“The present study confirms that in Germany there is a correlation between the distance of the home from the nearest NPP at the time of diagnosis and the risk of developing cancer (particularly leukemia) before the 5th birthday. This study is not able to state which biological risk factors could explain this relationship.” (BfS, 2008)

Although the KiKK study refrained from discussing the reasons for its findings, my hypothesis (Fairlie, 2014) is that the infant leukemias are a teratogenic effect of in utero exposures from intakes of radionuclides[6] from NPPs received during fetal development in pregnant women living nearby. The risks from NPP emissions to embryos/fetuses are apparently much larger than currently estimated. For example, haematopoietic (ie blood-forming) tissues are considerably more radiosensitive in embryos and fetuses than in children/adults. The combined immaturity of embryonic nervous and blood-forming systems make them particularly vulnerable to chronic radiation exposures from NPPs.

Unfortunately, official organisations, without exception, have found it difficult to accept that cancer increases near NPPs may be due to radioactive emissions. In their view, official doses from NPP emissions are too small to explain the observed increases in risks. This assumes that official risk models are correct and that their dose estimates are without uncertainties. However in 2004 the report of the UK Government’s CERRIE Committee stated that official dose estimates from internal emitters contained uncertainties which could sometimes be very large (CERRIE, 2004).

*Credit is due to Dr Alfred Korblein for his valuable assistance during this review.

References

Baker and Hoel (2007) Meta-analysis of standardized incidence and mortality rates of child[1]hood leukemias in proximity to nuclear facilities. Eur. J. Cancer Care 16, 355e363.

BfS (2008) Unanimous Statement by the Expert Group commissioned by the Bundesamt fur Strahlenschutz, 5 Dec 2007. (German Federal Office for Radiation Protection) on the KiKK Study [cited March 30 2008] http://www.bfs.de/de/bfs/druck/Ufoplan/4334_KIKK_Zusamm.pdf (in English).

Bithell et al (2008) Childhood leukaemia near British nuclear installations: methodological issues and recent results. Radiat. Prot. Dosimetry 132 (2), 191- 197

CERRIE (2004) Report of the Committee on the Radiation Risks of Internal Emitters. https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20140108135436/http://www.cer%5B1%5Drie.org/

Bethan Davies, Frédéric B Piel, Aina Roca-Barceló, Anna Freni Sterrantino, Hima Iyathooray Daby, Marta Blangiardo, Daniela Fecht, Frank de Vocht, Paul Elliott, Mireille B Toledano (2025)  Childhood cancer incidence around nuclear installations in Great Britain, 1995–2016.  International Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 54, Issue 4, August 2025, dyaf107, https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf107

Fairlie I and Körblein A (2010) Review of epidemiology studies of childhood leukemia near nuclear facilities: commentary on Laurier et al. Radiat. Prot. Dosimetry 138 (2), 194-195 author reply 195-7……………………………………………………………..(and more)

July 20, 2025 Posted by | health | Leave a comment

Trump sprang Ukraine surprise on NATO states – Reuters

Trump noted that the plan is seen by Washington as a business opportunity. 

16 July 25, https://www.rt.com/news/621575-trump-ukraine-weapons-surprise/

Several bloc members reportedly only learned they were supposed to fund American weapons for Kiev when it was announced by the US president.

Several NATO member states were not notified in advance that they would be asked to fund new arms deliveries to Ukraine under US President Donald Trump’s latest proposal, Reuters has reported, citing European officials.

On Monday, Trump pledged to provide more US-made weapons to Kiev through a new scheme funded by European NATO members. “We’re not buying it,” Trump said during an Oval Office meeting with the bloc’s secretary-general, Mark Rutte. “We will manufacture it, and they’re going to be paying for it.”

Trump noted that the plan is seen by Washington as a business opportunity. 

Rutte said six countries – Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, and Canada – were willing to take part in the arms procurement scheme. However, high-ranking sources at the embassies of two of those countries told Reuters they only learned of their supposed participation when the announcement was made.

“It is my clear sense that nobody has been briefed about the exact details in advance,” one European ambassador told Reuters. “And I also suspect that internally in the administration they are only now beginning to sort out what it means in practice.”

Several countries have already distanced themselves from Trump’s plan. According to Politico and La Stampa, France and Italy will not be financially supporting the effort. Hungary and the Czech Republic have also declined to participate, with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala saying Prague is focusing on other projects.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, on the other hand, has welcomed the proposal but emphasized that Washington should “share the burden,” stating that if European countries pay for the weapons, it should be considered as “European support.” 

Since taking office in January, Trump has renewed pressure on NATO members to increase defense spending and warned that the US may not defend allies who do not meet their obligations.

Russia has repeatedly condemned Western arms supplies to Ukraine, arguing that it only prolongs the bloodshed and does not change the course of the conflict. The Kremlin maintains that foreign military aid is being used to escalate the hostilities rather than seek a diplomatic resolution.

July 20, 2025 Posted by | EUROPE, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

In a historic gathering, 12 countries announce Israel sanctions and renewed legal action to end Gaza genocide

Meeting in Bogotá, Colombia, representatives of Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Iraq, Libya, Malaysia, Namibia, Nicaragua, Oman, and South Africa announced sanctions against Israel to cut the flow of weapons facilitating genocide and war crimes in Gaza.

By María F. Fitzgerald  July 17, 2025  https://mondoweiss.net/2025/07/30-countries-announce-israel-sanctions-and-renewed-legal-action-to-end-gaza-genocide/

Speaking about Palestine is speaking about resistance in the heart of horror. That is how Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, summed it up at an emergency conference in Bogotá, Colombia. The same Albanese who is currently facing sanctions imposed by the U.S. government for, according to them, making antisemitic remarks, after repeatedly denouncing the brutalities committed by Israel against the Palestinian people.

Despite these accusations, Albanese remains firm in her denunciations. She reiterated on several occasions that we must not allow these actions to distract us from what truly matters: the genocide that, for the past twenty months, has escalated against the people of Gaza, and the massive human rights violations taking place across Palestine, which have left more than 60,000 people dead, most of them women and children.

“The global majority [also known as the Global South] has been the driving force behind actions against Israel’s genocide, with South Africa and Colombia playing key roles in this process,” she told Mondoweiss during a press conference on the first day of the Emergency Conference for Gaza, convened by the governments of Colombia and South Africa. “These actions have led to the creation of spaces for sanctions and resistance. What we’ve been insisting on all along is that more and more countries must join these efforts.”

The Hague Group coordinated this Emergency Conference, which brought together representatives from over 30 states, including China, Brazil, Spain, Mexico, Turkey, and Qatar. Initially formed by Colombia and South Africa, the group seeks to establish specific sanctions against Israel that, according to Colombia’s Vice Minister for Multilateral Affairs, Mauricio Jaramillo Jassir, aim to move beyond discourse and into action.

Heads of state and their representatives emphasized that these sanctions are not retaliatory but are in full compliance with international humanitarian law. They are part of the international community’s commitment to ending the genocide. One of the central calls made was for more nations to join this effort and uphold their duty to defend human rights.

All 30 participating states unanimously agreed that “the era of impunity must end— and that international law must be enforced.” To begin this effort, 12 states from across the world — Bolivia, Colombia, Cuba, Indonesia, Iraq, Libya, Malaysia, Namibia, Nicaragua, Oman, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and South Africa — committed to implementing six key points:

1. Prevent the provision or transfer of arms, munitions, military fuel, related military equipment, and dual-use items to Israel, as appropriate, to ensure that our industry does not contribute the tools to enable or facilitate genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and other violations of international law.

2. Prevent the transit, docking, and servicing of vessels at any port, if applicable, within our territorial jurisdiction, while being fully compliant with applicable international law, including UNCLOS, in all cases where there is a clear risk of the vessel being used to carry arms, munitions, military fuel, related military equipment, and dual-use items to Israel, to ensure that our territorial waters and ports do not serve as conduits for activities that enable or facilitate genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and other violations of international law.

3. Prevent the carriage of arms, munitions, military fuel, related military equipment, and dual-use items to Israel on vessels bearing our flag, while being fully compliant with applicable international law, including UNCLOS, ensuring full accountability, including de-flagging, for non-compliance with this prohibition, not to render aid or assistance in maintaining the situation created by Israel’s illegal presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

4. Commence an urgent review of all public contracts, in order to prevent public institutions and public funds, where applicable, from supporting Israel’s illegal occupation of the Palestinian Territory which may entrench its unlawful presence in the territory, to ensure that our nationals, and companies and entities under our jurisdiction, as well as our authorities, do not act in any way that would entail recognition or provide aid or assistance in maintaining the situation created by Israel’s illegal presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

5. Comply with our obligations to ensure accountability for the most serious crimes under international law through robust, impartial and independent investigations and prosecutions at national or international levels, in compliance with our obligation to ensure justice for all victims and the prevention of future crimes.

6. Support universal jurisdiction mandates, as and where applicable in our legal constitutional frameworks and judiciaries, to ensure justice for all victims and the prevention of future crimes in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

Both Jaramillo and Zane Dangor, Director-General of South Africa’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation, emphasized that these actions must not be seen as reprisals, but rather as part of an international effort to break the global silence that has enabled atrocities in Palestine.

This decision is aligned with Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s renewed order to halt all coal exports from Colombia to Israel: “My government was betrayed, and that betrayal, among other things, cast doubt on my order to stop exporting coal to Israel. We are the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, which means the country of life is helping to kill humanity. Colombian coal is still being shipped to Israel. We prohibited it, and yet we are being tricked into violating that decision. We cannot allow Colombian coal to be turned into bombs that help Israel kill children.”

In his closing speech, Petro reaffirmed that Colombia would break all arms trade relations with Israel and would continue to support the Palestinian people’s right to resist.

The legitimacy of the Hague Group and these decisions has also been backed by several multilateral organizations that have denounced the genocide. As Varsha Gandikota-Nellutla, Executive Secretary of the Hague Group, stated: “The International Criminal Court (ICC) has already clearly denounced the genocide. The United Nations has stated that Gaza is the hungriest place on Earth. What we lack now is not clarity, it’s courage. We need the bravery to take the necessary actions”.

These words were echoed by Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad Mansour, who emphasized that, together with the Madrid Group (a coalition of over 20 European and Arab countries also taking action against Israel and led by Spain), they could be the key to breaking Israel’s siege of horror: “This will not be an exercise in theatrical politics. The time has come for concrete, effective action to stop the crimes and end the profiteering from genocide. We will defeat these crimes against humanity and give the children who are still alive in Palestine a future full of promise, independence, and dignity. Recognizing Palestine is not a symbolic gesture, it is a concrete act of resistance against colonial expansion”.

His statement was followed by that of Palestinian-American doctor Thaer Ahmad, who worked in Nasser Hospital in Gaza and left the territory two months ago. In his testimony, he said he is certain that official death tolls do not even come close to reality, that Gaza is currently hell on Earth, and that every day the genocide continues brings devastating consequences for Palestinian children: “How can we look ourselves in the mirror? When this ends, if it ends, what will we say? ‘Sorry, we did everything we could’? They can’t afford to keep waiting for vague responses. They are surviving genocide every day. So now, how do we ensure that the effort to erase Palestinians from history does not succeed?”

Although the agreed-upon actions are significant, even the attending delegations acknowledge that their efforts will not be enough. Broader and more forceful measures are required. Yet, one day earlier, standing at the podium of Colombia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Francesca Albanese reaffirmed the historic importance of this event. She stated it could be: “A historical turning point that ends, with concrete measures, the genocide-based economy that has sustained Israel. I came to this meeting believing that the narrative is shifting. Hope must be a discipline that we all preserve.”

Correction: The original version of this article said that all 30 countries participating in the gathering had endorsed the six action points. The article has been updated to make clear that only 12 of the participating countries have committed to implementing the measures at this time.

July 20, 2025 Posted by | politics | Leave a comment

Call for evidence on building nuclear for a new UK “golden age of clean energy abundance”

The UK is embarking on an ambitious programme of
investment in nuclear energy, seeking to reverse decades of declining
capacity. The Government is counting on new nuclear to help deliver energy
security and decarbonise electricity generation. Announcing funding for the
Sizewell C nuclear power plant in June, the Energy Secretary said “we
need new nuclear to deliver a golden age of clean energy abundance.”

But past promises of a golden age of nuclear energy have failed to materialise.
A new reactor has not been connected to the grid for 30 years. Nuclear
projects have historically faced unique barriers, including complex
regulatory and planning processes. The Government now aims to deliver
reforms to streamline planning approvals and give greater certainty to
developers. The Energy Security and Net Zero Committee is now inviting
written submissions to help assess whether EN-7 provides a coherent and
effective framework for enabling the UK’s nuclear ambitions.

 Energy Security and Net Zero Committee 17th July 2025, https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/664/energy-security-and-net-zero-committee/news/208378/call-for-evidence-on-building-nuclear-for-a-new-uk-golden-age-of-clean-energy-abundance/

July 20, 2025 Posted by | politics, UK | Leave a comment

We’ll stop Nimbys from blocking nuclear power stations, say Tories.

The rule changes would see planning officers ignore all environmental
considerations when building a new nuclear site,

Party wants to make it impossible to challenge plans using environmental impact assessments or habitat regulations

 Nimbys will be stopped from blocking nuclear power stations in their area
under Tory plans. The party wants to end the “absurd” blocking of new
nuclear sites through environmental impact assessments or regulations on
habitats, and would make it impossible to challenge a new power station in
court.

The Tories have submitted amendments to the Government’s Planning
and Infrastructure Bill that would exempt nuclear power stations from being
blocked or delayed on environmental grounds, to speed up energy production
in the UK. They accused Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, of presiding
over “the highest prices for offshore wind in a decade” and called for
more nuclear power to meet the UK’s growing demand for electricity.

The rule changes would see planning officers ignore all environmental
considerations when building a new nuclear site, which is likely to anger
locals and lead to public opposition. Writing for The Telegraph, Claire
Coutinho, the shadow energy secretary, said the new Hinkley Point C power
station in Somerset is set to be the most expensive in history because of
“bureaucracy and rampant lawfarism”. “[There is] Endless lawfare,
environmental paperwork, and legal challenges that do little to protect
nature but create plenty of expensive work for planning consultants and
pencil-pushing bureaucrats,” she said. “Every single delay and absurd
mitigation measure adds more cost.”

The amendments would only become law
with the support of Labour MPs, which is not expected to happen. Labour has
previously said it will reform the same rules raised by the Conservatives,
but will not exempt them from judicial review or all environmental
assessments.

Responding to the Conservative proposal, Sam Richards, chief
executive of pro-growth campaign group Britain Remade, said the UK had the
“worst of both worlds” with a planning system that does not protect
nature and slows down infrastructure projects. “These amendments are
radical, but the status quo where safe, clean nuclear power projects are
delayed and made more expensive due to repeated legal challenges and poorly
drafted environmental legislation is intolerable,” he said.

 Telegraph 18th July 2025, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/18/tories-stop-nimbys-block-nuclear-power-hinkley-fish-disco/

July 20, 2025 Posted by | politics, UK | Leave a comment

Ominous Plans: Making Concentration Camp Gaza

18 July 2025Dr Binoy Kampmark, https://theaimn.net/ominous-plans-making-concentration-camp-gaza/

The odious idea of a camp within a camp. The Gaza Strip, with an even greater concentration of Palestinian civilian life within an ever-shrinking stretch of territory. These are the proposals ventured by the Israeli government even as the official Palestinian death toll marches upwards to 60,000. They envisage the placement of some 600,000 displaced and houseless beings currently living in tents in the area of al-Mawasi along Gaza’s southern coast in a creepily termed “humanitarian city”. This would be the prelude for an ultimate relocation of the strip’s entire population of over 2 million in an area that will become an even smaller prison than the Strip already is.

The preparation for such a forced removal – yet another among so many Israel has inflicted upon the Palestinians – is in full swing. The analysis of satellite imagery from the United Nations Satellite Centre (UNOSAT) by Al Jazeera’s Sanad investigations unit found that approximately 12,800 buildings were demolished in Rafah between early April and early July alone. In the Knesset on May 11 this year, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave words to those deeds: “We are demolishing more and more [of their] homes, they have nowhere to return to. The only obvious result will be the desire of the Gazans to emigrate outside the Strip.”

Camps of concentrated human life – concentration camps, in other words – are often given a different dressing to what they are meant to be. Authoritarian states enjoy using them to re-educate and reform the inmates even as they gradually kill them. Indeed, the proposals from the Israel’s Defense Department carry with them plans for a “Humanitarian Transit Area” where Gazans would “temporarily reside, deradicalize, re-integrate, and prepare to relocate if they wish to do so.”

The emetic candy floss of “humanitarian” in the context of a camp is a self-negating nonsense similar to other experiments in cruelty: the relocation of Boer civilians during the colonial wars waged by Britain to camps which saw dysentery and starvation; the movement of Vietnamese villagers into fortified hamlets to prevent their infiltration by the Vietcong in the 1960s; the creation of Pacific concentration camps to detain refugees seeking Australia by boat in what came to be called the “Pacific Solution.”

Those in the business of doing humanitarian deeds were understandably appalled by Israel’s latest plans. Philippe Lazzarini, head of the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), stated that this would “de facto create massive concentration camps at the border with Egypt for the Palestinians, displaced over and over across generations.” It would certainly “deprive Palestinians of any prospects of a better future in their homeland.” Self-evidently and sadly, that would be one of the main aims.

A few of Israeli’s former Prime Ministers have ditched the coloured goggles in considering the plans for such a mislabelled city. Yair Lapid, who spent a mere six months in office in 2022, told Israeli Army Radio that it was “a bad idea from every possible perspective – security, political, economic, logistical.” While preferring not to use the term “concentration camp” with regards such a construction, incarcerating individuals by effectively preventing their exit would make such a term appropriate.  

Ehud Olmert’s words to The Guardian were even less inclined to varnish the matter. “If they [the Palestinians] will be deported into the new ‘humanitarian city’, then you can say that this is part of an ethnic cleansing.” To create a camp that would effectively “clean” more than half of Gaza of its population could hardly be understood as a plan to save Palestinians. “It is to deport them, to push and to throw them away. There is no other understanding that I have at least.”

Israeli political commentator Ori Goldberg was also full of candour in expressing the view that the plan was “for all facts and purposes a concentration camp” for Gaza’s Palestinians, “an overt crime against humanity under international humanitarian law”. This would also add the burgeoning grounds of illegality already being alleged in this month’s petition by three Israeli reserve soldiers of Israel’s Supreme Court questioning the legality of Operation Gideon’s Chariots. Instancing abundant examples of forced transfer and expulsions of the Palestinian population during its various phases, commentators such as former chief of staff of the IDF, Moshe “Bogy” Ya’alon, are unreserved about how such programs fare before international law. “Evacuating an entire population? Call it ethnic cleansing, call it transfer, call it deportation, it’s a war crime,” he told journalist Lucy Aharish. “Israel’s soldiers had been sent in “to commit war crimes.”

There is also some resistance from within the IDF, less on humanitarian grounds than practical ones. To even prepare such a plan in the midst of negotiations for a lasting ceasefire and finally resolving the hostage situation was the first telling problem. The other was how the IDF could feasibly undertake what would be a grand jailing experiment while preventing the infiltration of Hamas.  

This ghastly push by the Netanyahu government involves an enormous amount of wishful thinking. Ideally, the Palestinians will simply leave. If not, they will live in even more carceral conditions than they faced before October 2023. But to assume that this cartoon strip humanitarianism, papered over a ghoulish program of inflicted suffering, will add to the emptying well of Israeli security, is testament to how utterly desperate, and delusionary, the Israeli PM and his cabinet members have become.

July 19, 2025 Posted by | Atrocities, Gaza, Israel | Leave a comment

Cognitive collapse and the nuclear codes: When leaders lose control

Date:July 17, 2025, Source: University of Otago, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/07/250717013857.htm

Summary:

A shocking study reveals that many leaders of nuclear-armed nations—including US presidents and Israeli prime ministers—were afflicted by serious health problems while in office, sometimes with their conditions hidden from the public. From dementia and depression to addiction and chronic diseases, these impairments may have affected their decision-making during pivotal global crises.

The research underscores the need for greater transparency, better safeguards for nuclear decisions, and reforms such as mandatory health evaluations and shared launch authority to reduce global security risks. Credit: Shutterstock

Many former leaders of the world’s nine nuclear-armed nations were impaired by health conditions while in office, raising concerns over their decision-making abilities while they had access to nuclear weapon launch codes, a study from the University of Otago, New Zealand, has found.

The study analyzed the health information of 51 deceased leaders of nuclear-armed countries: China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Eight of the leaders died from chronic disease while still in office, five from heart attacks or strokes. Many of the leaders had multiple serious health issues while in office, including dementia, personality disorders, depression and drug and alcohol abuse.

The research was led by Professor Nick Wilson, from the Department of Public Health at the University of Otago, Wellington – Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka, Pōneke, with Associate Professor George Thomson and independent researcher Dr Matt Boyd. Professor Wilson says that of the leaders who left office while still alive, 15 had confirmed or possible health issues which likely hastened their departure.

“Probably all of this group of 15 leaders had their performance in office impaired by their health conditions. In some cases, the degree of impairment was profound, such as in the case of two former Israeli Prime Ministers: Ariel Sharon, who became comatose after suffering a stroke in office, and Menachem Begin, whose depression was so severe he spent his last year as leader isolated in his home. Impairment during crises was also seen in the case of Richard Nixon’s bouts of heavy drinking – including during a nuclear crisis involving the Middle East.

“There have also been occasions where health information about leaders has been kept secret at the time.”

This was the case for multiple US presidents, including Dwight D Eisenhower, whose doctor described his 1955 heart attack as a digestive upset; John F Kennedy, whose aides lied about him having Addison’s disease, a serious, chronic condition; and Ronald Reagan, whose administration hid the extent of his injuries after he was shot in 1981, and the likely signs of his dementia near the end of his term.

Professor Wilson says Kennedy was in poor health during his first two years in office in 1961 and 1962, with his performance likely impaired from Addison’s disease, back pain, and his use of anabolic steroids and amphetamines. It was in 1961 that he authorized the failed CIA-backed Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba and that his poor performance at a Cold War summit with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in Vienna was noted. In turn, Khrushchev’s poor mental health probably contributed to him triggering both the Berlin Crisis and the Cuban Missile Crisis.

In France, long-serving President François Mitterrand clung onto power until the end of his term in 1995, despite keeping secret his advanced prostate cancer and after his doctor had concluded in late 1994 that he was no longer capable of carrying out his duties. This latest study follows previous research involving Professor Wilson on the health of former New Zealand Prime Ministers. It found the performance of at least four of the leaders was impaired, in three cases by poor health, and, in the case of Robert Muldoon, by his heavy drinking.

Professor Wilson says with the rise in international instability following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 it has become even more important to ensure there is good leadership and governance in those countries with nuclear weapons.

“This is particularly the case for the United States, where a leader can in principle authorize the release of nuclear weapons on their own, a situation referred to as a ‘nuclear monarchy’.”

He says there are a range of measures which could reduce global security risks from leaders whose judgement is in question. They include removing nuclear weapons from ‘high alert’ status, adopting ‘no first use’ policies where nations refrain from using nuclear weapons except as a retaliatory second strike, ensuring any weapon launches need authorization by multiple people, and progressing nuclear disarmament treaties.

Professor Wilson says democracies could consider introducing term limits for their leaders, as well as recall systems, so voters could petition for politicians to step down. Requirements for medical and psychological assessments could be introduced for leaders before they take office, and during their terms.

“Maintaining a strong media with investigative journalists can also help expose impairment in leaders.”

Professor Wilson says politicians in general are exposed to high levels of stress, which can affect their mental well-being. A study of UK Members of Parliament has found they were 34 per cent more likely to experience mental health problems than other high-income earners.

“Finding ways to reduce stress on politicians and better address their mental health needs is another way global security risks can be reduced.”

Story Source:

Materials provided by University of OtagoNote: Content may be edited for style and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Nick Wilson, George Thomson, Matt Boyd. The frequently impaired health of leaders of nuclear weapon states: an analysis of 51 deceased leadersBMC Research Notes, 2025; 18 (1) DOI: 10.1186/s13104-025-07351-8

July 19, 2025 Posted by | psychology - mental health | Leave a comment

New reports cast doubt on impact of US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

Citing intelligence assessments, NBC News and Washington Post report that only Fordow site was destroyed in US attack.

US Secretary of Defense attacks media for questioning Iran strikes

By Al Jazeera Staff, 18 Jul 202518 Jul 2025, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/18/new-reports-cast-doubt-on-impact-of-us-strikes-on-irans-nuclear-sites

Washington, DC – New media reports in the United States, citing intelligence assessments, have cast doubt over President Donald Trump’s assertion that Washington’s military strikes last month “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme.

The Washington Post and NBC News reported that US officials were saying that only one of the three Iranian nuclear sites – the Fordow facility – targeted by the US has been destroyed.

The Post’s report, released on Friday, also raised questions on whether the centrifuges used to enrich uranium at the deepest level of Fordow were destroyed or moved before the attack.

“We definitely can’t say it was obliterated,” an unidentified official told the newspaper, referring to Iran’s nuclear programme.

Trump has insisted that the US strikes were a “spectacular” success, lashing out at any reports questioning the level of damage they inflicted on Iran’s nuclear programme.

An initial US intelligence assessment, leaked to several media outlets after the attack last month, said the strikes failed to destroy key components of Iran’s nuclear programme and only delayed its work by months.

But the Pentagon said earlier in July that the attacks degraded the Iranian programme by one to two years.

While the strikes on Fordow – initially thought to be the most guarded facility, buried inside a mountain – initially took centre stage, the NBC News and Washington Post reports suggested that the facilities in Natanz and Isfahan also had deep tunnels.

‘Impenetrable’

The US military did not use enormous bunker-busting bombs against the Isfahan site and targeted surface infrastructure instead.

A congressional aide familiar with intelligence briefings told the Post that the Pentagon had assessed that the underground facilities at Isfahan were “pretty much impenetrable”.

The Pentagon responded to both reports by reiterating that all three sites were “completely and totally obliterated”.

Israel, which started the war by attacking Iran without direct provocation last month, has backed the US administration’s assessment, while threatening further strikes against Tehran if it resumes its nuclear programme.

For its part, Tehran has not provided details about the state of its nuclear sites.

Some Iranian officials have said that the facilities sustained significant damage from US and Israeli attacks. But Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said after the war that Trump had “exaggerated” the impact of the strikes.

The location and state of Iran’s highly enriched uranium also remain unknown.

Iran’s nuclear agency and regulators in neighbouring states have said they did not detect a spike in radioactivity after the bombings, suggesting the strikes did not result in uranium contamination.

But Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, did not rule out that the uranium containers may have been damaged in the attacks.

“We don’t know where this material could be or if part of it could have been under the attack during those 12 days,” Grossi told CBS News last month.

According to Grossi, Iran could resume uranium enrichment in a “matter of months”.

The war

Israel launched a massive attack against Iran on June 13, killing several top military officials, as well as nuclear scientists.

The bombing campaign targeted military sites, civilian infrastructure and residential buildings across the country, killing hundreds of civilians.

Iran responded with barrages of missiles against Israel that left widespread destruction and claimed the lives of at least 29 people.

The US joined the Israeli campaign on June 22, striking the three nuclear sites. Iran retaliated with a missile attack against an air base housing US troops in Qatar.

Initially, Trump said the Iranian attack was thwarted, but after satellite images showed damage at the base, the Pentagon acknowledged that one of the missiles was not intercepted.

“One Iranian ballistic missile impacted Al Udeid Air Base June 23 while the remainder of the missiles were intercepted by US and Qatari air defence systems,” Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell told Al Jazeera in an email last week.

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“The impact did minimal damage to equipment and structures on the base. There were no injuries.”

After a ceasefire was reached to end the 12-day war, both the US and Iran expressed willingness to engage in diplomacy to resolve the nuclear file. But talks have not materialised.

Iran and the US were periodically holding nuclear talks before Israel launched its war in June.

During his first term in 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 multilateral nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The agreement saw Iran scale back its nuclear programme in exchange for lifting international sanctions against its economy.

In recent days, European officials have suggested that they could impose “snap-back” sanctions against Iran as part of the deal that has long been violated by the US.

Tehran, which started enriching uranium beyond the limits set by the JCPOA after the US withdrawal, insists that Washington was the party that nixed the agreement, stressing that the deal acknowledges Iran’s enrichment rights.

On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he held talks with the top diplomats of France, the United Kingdom and Germany – known as the E3 – as well as the European Union’s high representative.

Araghchi said Europeans should put aside “worn-out policies of threat and pressure”.

“It was the US that withdrew from a two-year negotiated deal – coordinated by EU in 2015 – not Iran; and it was US that left the negotiation table in June this year and chose a military option instead, not Iran,” the Iranian foreign minister said in a social media post.

“Any new round of talks is only possible when the other side is ready for a fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial nuclear deal.”

Tehran denies seeking a nuclear bomb. Israel, meanwhile, is widely believed to have an undeclared nuclear arsenal.

July 19, 2025 Posted by | Iran, weapons and war | Leave a comment