“They just fit in with what we do:” Australian farmers reap rewards as they play host to wind and solar
ReNewEconomy Liv Casben, Jun 29, 2024
Renewables in agriculture are gaining momentum across the nation as Australia pushes to reach its net-zero emissions target by 2050.
Australia’s energy market operator has declared renewables as the most cost-effective way of reaching net-zero targets in the grid, but just how much of the load will be carried by the farming sector remains unclear.
Across pockets of the nation, farmers are already doing their bit to reduce their carbon footprint.
“Anecdotally, we have seen a huge increase in farmers seeking renewables projects as farmers seek to increase the productivity of their farms,” Farmers for Climate Action’s Natalie Collard told AAP.
“Renewables offer drought-proof income, and drought-proof income keeps farms going through the toughest of times.”
The Lee family has farmed at Glenrowan West for 150 years, but for the past three years they’ve also added solar to the mix.
A German-based company leases the land from the Lees and maintains the solar panels, which run alongside the sheep farming operation.
“The lessee basically runs it just as another paddock, the sheep go in just as they would under any other farming operation,” Gayle Lee said. “We haven’t found there to be any noticeable loss of production.”
……………………………………………………. Karin Stark, who will host the annual Renewables in Agriculture conference in Toowoomba next week, says consultation is key to farmers playing a “critical role” in the renewables transition and keeping everyone happy…………… more https://reneweconomy.com.au/they-just-fit-in-with-what-we-do-farmers-reap-rewards-as-they-play-host-to-wind-and-solar/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0qML5s3XgsQ3EZd5pJl15CdGXQ60-BC3TLkIVpcaWkgLsBSarHkHoPUYI_aem_OC5kzgz0cTiwWtnLVva56A
Why we are heading for a globally connected electricity system based on renewable energy
renewable globalism is coming, so home-sited renewables are needed to protect British energy security
DAVID TOKE, JUN 21, 2024, https://davidtoke.substack.com/p/why-we-are-heading-for-a-globally
Slowly but surely the world is creeping towards global interconnection. That could make a global 100 per cent renewable energy system work a lot better. There would be reductions in the amount of storage needed and consequent reductions in cost. That is what academics are saying, including work done by electrical engineers based at the University of Birmingham (UK). Put simply, different parts of the world could power each other at different times of the day and night.
Solar power will become the dominant energy source. As Professor Christian Breyer says: ‘yes, solar & battery will be the central backbone of global energy supply, even more so in the sunbelt where two-third of world population live’. ‘Globalism’ will rule the electricity delivery system. Globalism already exists in the form of the international oil, and increasingly, natural gas industry. However, now with the development of HVDC transmission systems which minimise grid-based power losses, electricity can be transported efficiently over very great distances.
But the incremental march of international electricity interconnections is gradually pushing us in the direction of a global electricity system. It is happening incrementally. A new globalism based on renewable energy has great advantages, according to academics who have modelled the concept.
Of course, we should strive for energy security in the UK. This means wind power especially in the UK, supplemented by as much solar power as we can generate. Other renewable energy resources are potentially substantial in the UK. This includes geothermal energy, tidal stream energy and wave power, all of which are in greater or lesser stages of development. Of course the more renewables are deployed in the UK, the more we shall be able to profit from international trading in renewable energy.
As I say in my recently published book ‘Energy Revolutions’ (pages 36-37):
‘One interesting approach is to imagine providing 100 per cent of energy from renewables in the context of a globally interconnected electricity system. This would have the advantage of connecting areas where it is daytime with areas where it is night, as well as more and less windy zones. In recent decades, new engineering solutions for interconnection involving high-voltage direct current have emerged. These allow the possibility of (economically) transmitting electricity across thousands of miles while minimising electricity losses. A group of researchers has modelled the possibilities for a global system to provide 100%RE. They concluded that, compared to systems that are not globally interconnected, a globally interconnected system would reduce storage costs for 100%RE by 50 per cent and reduce the costs by 20 per cent.’
Incremental progress towards global interconnection is happening. I’m not necessarily talking about much-publicised plans to connect up the UK directly with solar pv from North Africa – that may or may not happen in some form or other sometime in the future – and perhaps never at all in a direct sense. Really, discussion of plans like that trivialises discussion about increasing international links in electricity supply.
What I am rather talking about, for the moment are the plans, which have begun to be implemented, to connect up North Africa and with southern Europe. Developments like that could lead to greater linkage of British electricity systems. On the one hand, British international electricity interconnection with the continent of Europe is expanding and on the other hand, African interconnection with European states is also occurring. But this will be indirect, rather than direct, connections between the UK and Africa.
The latest incremental change in the progress towards completion of the interconnector between Crete and Attica. Meanwhile, the European Commission is offering financial backing to interconnector projects between Italy and Tunisia, one between Egypt and Greece, and another between Greece, Cyprus and Israel. This programme runs parallel with the European Commission target that member states should have interconnections worth at least 15 per cent of their national electricity consumption by 2015.
The UK, if anything, is expanding rather faster than this, with the bulk of our current (9.8 GW) of international interconnector capacity having been commissioned since 2010. According to OFGEM new international interconnectors are set to increase this capacity by over 50 per cent by 2030. These are all projects with our neighbours: Norway, Ireland, Denmark, France, Germany and Belgium.
Of course we are still some way off having a globally interconnected system. However the spread of renewable energy which is building up to an astonishingly rapid rate is turbocharging the growth of interconnectors. This is because the variable nature of renewable energy encourages greater interconnection.
Globalism is slowly happening in electricity interconnection, perhaps not through dramatic direct projects, but gradually. Britain has a stake in this in that it can export renewable energy production, thus reducing excess renewable energy production. We should continue our practice of issuing fixed price contracts for renewable energy to enure that UK consumers get a good deal. But a global system of interconnection will reduce the need to store so much energy because it can import excess renewable energy from other places – perhaps places which are thousands of miles away.
Surging Renewables Push French Energy Prices Negative, Shutting Down Nuclear Plants
by Rahul Kumar, June 15, 2024, in Business and Finance, https://theubj.com/business/surging-renewables-push-french-energy-prices-negative-shutting-down-nuclear-plants/
French energy prices recently plunged into negative territory, reaching a four-year low of -€5.76 per megawatt-hour in an Epex Spot auction, Bloomberg reported. This unusual occurrence was driven by an excess of renewable energy production combined with reduced demand, particularly over the weekend. The surplus in renewable power led to some French nuclear plants going offline.
Renewable Energy Surge and Market Impact
The drop in day-ahead energy prices underscores the profound impact that renewable energy, particularly wind and solar power, is having on the European energy market. As renewable energy production surged, especially during periods of low demand, it created an oversupply that forced prices down. This imbalance pressured Electricité de France (EDF), the state-owned utility company, to temporarily shut down several nuclear reactors to avoid generating excess power that could not be sold profitably. Initially, three nuclear plants were halted, with plans to take three more offline.
A Pan-European Issue
This phenomenon is not isolated to France. Other European countries, including Spain and those in the Scandinavian region, also experience similar shutdowns of nuclear reactors due to excess renewable energy generation. The continent’s push to decarbonize energy grids has accelerated the deployment of renewable infrastructure. However, the lack of adequate battery technology and investment to store surplus energy has created pricing inefficiencies, leading to occurrences of negative prices.
Germany’s Experience
Germany, a leader in renewable energy adoption, has also faced negative energy prices. SEB Research reported in May that solar power generation in Germany had outpaced demand, leading to similar pricing challenges. Despite these issues, Germany has been more aggressive in its rollout of renewable energy compared to France. This aggressive approach has helped Germany mitigate some of the market inefficiencies seen in France.
France’s Renewable Energy Rollout
In contrast, France’s rollout of renewable energy has been slower. Paris has installed around 45 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity, which is behind the targets set by the European Commission. The slower adoption rate has contributed to the country’s struggle to balance its energy supply and demand efficiently.
Political and Economic Implications
The political landscape in France could further impact the renewable energy sector. The far-right National Rally party, which is poised to make significant gains in upcoming domestic elections, has pledged to slash renewable subsidies and halt the expansion of the wind power industry. Such political developments could slow down the already modest pace of France’s renewable energy rollout, potentially leading to more significant market inefficiencies and continued reliance on traditional energy sources.
Broader Challenges
The situation in France highlights the broader challenges associated with transitioning to renewable energy. While the shift towards cleaner energy is essential for reducing carbon emissions and combating climate change, it also necessitates advancements in energy storage solutions and a more balanced energy mix to ensure market stability and efficiency. Without these advancements, countries may continue to experience negative pricing and the associated operational challenges.
Conclusion
The recent plunge into negative energy prices in France due to an oversupply of renewable energy underscores the complex dynamics of the modern energy market. As Europe continues to push towards decarbonization, the need for robust energy storage solutions and strategic market management becomes increasingly critical. The experiences of France and other European countries serve as a reminder of the growing pains associated with the global shift towards sustainable energy.
Farmers who graze sheep under solar panels say it improves productivity. So why don’t we do it more?
Guardian, by Aston Brown, 14 June 24
Allowing livestock to graze under renewable developments gives farmers a separate income stream, but solar developers have been slow to catch on.As a flock of about 2,000 sheep graze between rows of solar panels, grazier Tony Inder wonders what all the fuss is about. “I’m not going to suggest it’s everyone’s cup of tea,” he says. “But as far as sheep grazing goes, solar is really good.”
Inder is talking about concerns over the encroachment of prime agricultural land by ever-expanding solar and windfarms, a well-trodden talking point for the loudest opponents to Australia’s energy transition.
But on Inder’s New South Wales property, a solar farm has increased wool production. It is a symbiotic relationship that the director of the National Renewables in Agriculture Conference, Karin Stark, wants to see replicated across as many solar farms as possible as Australia’s energy grid transitions away from fossil fuels.
“It’s all about farm diversification,” Stark says. “At the moment a lot of us farmers are reliant on when it’s going to rain, having solar and wind provides this secondary income.”
In exchange, the panels provide shelter for the sheep, encourage healthier pasture growth under the shade of the panels and create “drip lines” from condensation rolling off the face of the panels.
“We had strips of green grass right through the drought,” Dubbo sheep grazier Tom Warren says. Warren has seen a 15% rise in wool production due to a solar farm installed on his property more than seven years ago.
Despite these success stories, a 2023 Agrivoltaic Resource Centre report authored by Stark found that solar grazing is under utilised in Australia because developers, despite saying they intend to host livestock, make few planning adjustments to ensure that happens……………………………………………………………………………….
According to an analysis by the Clean Energy Council, less than 0.027% of land used for agriculture production would be needed to power the east coast states with solar projects – far less than the one-third of all prime agricultural land that the rightwing thinktank the Institute of Public Affairs has claimed will be “taken over” by renewables. That argument, which has been heavily refuted by experts, has been taken up by the National party, whose leader, David Littleproud, said regional Australia had reached saturation point with renewable energy developments.
Queensland grazier and the chair of the Future Farmers Network, Caitlin McConnel, has sold electricity to the grid from a dozen custom-built solar arrays on her farm’s cattle pastures for more than a decade.
“Trial and error” and years of modifications have made them structurally sound around cattle and financially viable in the long-term, she says.
“As far as I know, we are the only farm to do solar with cattle,” McConnel says. “It’s good land, so why would we just lock it up just for solar panels?” https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/13/farmers-who-graze-sheep-under-solar-panels-say-it-improves-productivity-so-why-dont-we-do-it-more
A global review of Battery Storage: the fastest growing clean energy technology today
Energy Post 27th May 2024 by IEA
The IEA report “Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions” looks at the impressive global progress, future projections, and risks for batteries across all applications. 2023 saw deployment in the power sector more than double. Strong growth occurred for utility-scale batteries, behind-the-meter, mini-grids, solar home systems, and EVs. Lithium-ion batteries dominate overwhelmingly due to continued cost reductions and performance improvements. And policy support has succeeded in boosting deployment in many markets (including Africa).
Further innovations in battery chemistries and manufacturing are projected to reduce global average lithium-ion battery costs by a further 40% by 2030 and bring sodium-ion batteries to the market. The IEA emphasises the vital role batteries play in supporting other clean technologies, notably in balancing intermittent wind and solar.
New successes include the fact that solar PV plus batteries is now competitive with new coal-fired power in India and, in the next couple years, should become competitive with new coal in China and new natural gas-fired power in the U.S. Looking ahead, deployment must increase sevenfold by 2030. The prospects are good: if all announced plants are built on time this would be sufficient to meet the battery requirements of the IEA’s net-zero scenario in 2030. And although, today, the supply chain for batteries is very concentrated, the fast-growing market should create new opportunities for diversifying those supply chains.
Batteries are an essential part of the global energy system today and the fastest growing energy technology on the market
Battery storage in the power sector was the fastest growing energy technology in 2023 that was commercially available, with deployment more than doubling year-on-year.
Strong growth occurred for utility-scale battery projects, behind-the-meter batteries, mini-grids and solar home systems for electricity access, adding a total of 42 GW of battery storage capacity globally. Electric vehicle (EV) battery deployment increased by 40% in 2023, with 14 million new electric cars, accounting for the vast majority of batteries used in the energy sector.
Despite the continuing use of lithium-ion batteries in billions of personal devices in the world, the energy sector now accounts for over 90% of annual lithium-ion battery demand. This is up from 50% for the energy sector in 2016, when the total lithium-ion battery market was 10-times smaller. With falling costs and improving performance, lithium-ion batteries have become a cornerstone of modern economies, underpinning the proliferation of personal electronic devices, including smart phones, as well the growth in the energy sector. In 2023, there were nearly 45 million EVs on the road – including cars, buses and trucks – and over 85 GW of battery storage in use in the power sector globally.
Lithium-ion batteries dominate battery use due to recent cost reductions and performance improvements…………………………………………………………….
‘Offshore wind farms could have averted Fukushima disaster’
A global review led by the University of Surrey reveals that offshore wind farms could have prevented the Fukushima disaster and are now a cheaper energy alternative than nuclear power
Dimitris Mavrokefalidis, 05/30/2024 , https://www.energylivenews.com/2024/05/30/offshore-wind-farms-could-have-averted-fukushima-disaster/
A review conducted by researchers at the University of Surrey has concluded that offshore wind farms could have averted the Fukushima nuclear disaster by maintaining the cooling systems and preventing a meltdown.
The study highlights that wind farms are less vulnerable to earthquakes than nuclear power plants.
Suby Bhattacharya, Professor of Geomechanics at the University of Surrey, emphasised that wind power provides abundant clean energy and can enhance the safety and reliability of other facilities.
The review indicates that wind energy is now more cost-effective due to reduced construction costs and improved methods to minimise environmental impact.
The report finds that new wind farms can produce energy at a significantly lower cost than new nuclear power stations.
In the UK, the lifetime cost of generating wind power has dropped from £160/MWh to £44/MWh, covering all expenses from planning to decommissioning.
Professor Bhattacharya said: “What makes wind so attractive is that the fuel is free, and the cost of building turbines is falling. There is enough of it blowing around the world to power the planet 18 times over.
“Our report shows the industry is ironing out practical challenges and making this green power sustainable, too.”
2
TODAY. Jobs jobs jobs in the nuclear industry – but is it true?
Go to Google news for nuclear information, and you’ll be swamped with glowing stories from the World Nuclear Association, the IAEA, and the big corporate media outlets – all about the wonderful future for the nuclear industry- –
all those jobs! including in the lovely nuclear weapons industry.
Jobs in renewable energy. This year’s report finds that renewable energy employment worldwide has continued to expand – to an estimated 13.7 million direct and indirect jobs in 2022. We can expect the creation of many millions of additional jobs in the coming years and decades. https://mc-cd8320d4-36a1-40ac-83cc-3389-cdn-endpoint.azureedge.net/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Sep/IRENA_Renewable_energy_and_jobs_2023.pdf?rev=4f65518fb5f64c9fb78f6f60fe821bf2
Jobs in nuclear power. I have not been able to find any kind of authoritative report on global jobs in nuclear power. I did find one source (on Quora) stating that each nuclear reactor in construction provides 1400-1800 jobs, and in operation 400 -700 jobs. The nuclear industry claims many more, but for construction, we must remember – this is all in the rather distant future.
The figure below is a prediction from many years ago. If we are to believe the nuclear lobby, this prediction should change rapidly.
What we do know is that at present, renewable energy jobs are increasing exponentially, and nuclear power building is almost at a standstill.
The figure on the left is also from many years ago. But I doubt that much has changed.
Of course – this is all about the actual reactors. There are many jobs in uranium mining, milling, transport etc, and of course, in nuclear weapons-making
The quality of jobs.
In energy efficiency there are many interesting and clean jobs. Also, workers know that they are contributing to a healthier planet – something to be proud of.
In renewable energy the jobs are relatively clean and healthy, and there’s again, the knowledge of being in an alternative to the polluting industries – coal and nuclear.
In nuclear energy and nuclear fuel, the workers are involved in the risky area of ionising radiation. There’s a huge amount of documentation on this. It is NOT a healthy job, though I suppose that it’s better to be a highly paid nuclear executive or lobbyist, safe in a nice office.
I doubt that nuclear workers can get much satisfaction about “helping the planet”, as the “peaceful” nuclear industry is so dirty, dangerous, and intimately connected with nuclear weapons.
No doubt some nuclear workers get paid a lot more than renewable energy workers do. But, there’s real value in knowing that your contribution to society is a clean and positive one.
The (currently terrible) mood in renewables… is largely irrelevant
At some point people should realize that (i) investments have continued, (ii) the price increases that hit the sector have hit other sectors as well so do not really hurt its relative competitiveness, and (iii) it works…
JÉRÔME À PARIS, MAY 27, 2024, https://jeromeaparis.substack.com/p/the-currently-terrible-mood-in-renewables (EXCELLENT GRAPHS)
The past year has seen both a terrible political backlash against renewables (and climate policies more generally) and a relentlessly negative mood music about the sector, making it sound like nobody is investing in the sector, even though the industry keeps on breaking records.
It’s been difficult to write anything mildly positive or just sensible about activity in the sector when it risks simply being drowned out by these negative perceptions and ignored.
The negative context has been driven by headlines focused on the offshore wind sector (some projects abandoned or delayed in the US, the UK “round 5” auction getting no bidders) and generated by high profile decisions, mostly by oil&gas players, to reduce their exposure to the sector and do so rather noisily. This has naturally been seized upon with glee, and amplified, by opponents to the sector, who remain active, if slightly more subtle than in the past.
It has had some really effects, in particular in my small corner of the market (early development for offshore wind, in particular floating offshore wind), where investors have become a lot more prudent and mostly adopted a ”wait and see” attitude to new projects and markets rather than the enthusiastic “must have” rush of a few years ago.
So, just last week, you could still read headlines like “European utilities cut renewable targets as high costs and low power prices bite” that make it sound like investment is really slowing down… when it really isn’t, and prices are getting worse, when they aren’t…
So what explains the discrepancy?
At some point people should realize that (i) investments have continued, (ii) the price increases that hit the sector have hit other sectors as well so do not really hurt its relative competitiveness, and (iii) it works…
I’ve been thinking that it may just take a couple of eye-catching announcements (a new tender at lower than expected prices, a new high profile acquisition) to change the mood and suddenly switch everybody from “let’s wait” to “we need to do this” but I’m not so sure – we’ve had such announcements already (recent news about the tenders in France, Norway or Australia, for instance, or proposed acquisitions like OX2 by EQT) and they have been largely ignored outside of the industry.
But that last FT headline made me realize why – these positive stories did not come from the big players (oil&gas majors or the key publicly-traded utilities) and they are not, how shall we say, very click-bait-y… Complex stories, unknown parties, and it doesn’t bleed… Not headline material.
To me, the main story this year is actually that we are beginning to see our power systems completely taken over by renewables. In places like the UK (see above), California, Spain, and even Texas, or Germany, solar is now dominant for many hours each day. Even more interestingly, the availability of battery storage solutions is now extending the period of carbon-free, or at least carbon-light, electricity by several hours each day (and the growth of batteries is even more explosive than that of solar).
This is naturally happening first (i) in the places that have built quite a bit of solar, (ii) that have the relevant sunny climate, (iii) during the warmer season, and (iv) during the day. But the growth in solar penetration has been phenomenal in a lot of places, and such dominance of solar is soon going to extend from a few hours per day a few weeks per year in a handful of countries to most of the day (and night), a large fraction of the year, in a growing number of systems. At some point – and this is likely just a few years away, we’ll likely have to manage increasingly often the situation where there is more electricity available than demand, and prices crash to zero (or below). I’m actually not too worried about this “problem” – we are talking about having a really useful input (energy, in a highly usable form) available at a low price: I’m sure lots of ways, old and new, will be found to make use of that resource and turn it into something valuable in monetary terms when it’s in surplus… Storage is the most obvious one, but I’m sure there will lots of interruptible activities that will grow to take advantage of low prices with high flexibility.
But the consciousness of this is not percolating yet. There’s two reasons for that: (i) the system is not crashing, so journalists have no acute reason to talk about it (you’ll note that articles usually come when some production or penetration record is broken) and the transition is not that visible – or only to specialized professionals and geeks, and (ii) this is happening in a completely decentralized way – there is no “solar super-major”, or even headlines-worthy multi-billion mega-projects that politicians would want to brag about or the press or stock analysts could follow.
Which brings me back to the utilities and oil&gas majors. They are in fact playing an incredibly small role in the transition.
We are used to these mammoth companies that control everything – big power plants, large customer base, massive political influence and corresponding headlines, and they are largely absent from the new system. Oh sure, they have renewables arms that are quite large, which may even be the largest around in their country or area of activity, but they make up only a small part of the overall renewable generation. (It’s a bit hard to find data, but this WoodMacKenzie report from 2019 noted that the top 10 owners of solar plants only controlled 6.9% of worldwide installed capacity, while a Finergreen ranking from 2017 showed that in France, EDF was the market leader with just 4% of solar capacity).
So people actually like to talk about offshore wind, because it’s understandable – big multi-billion euro investments, giga-watt scale projects, large companies developing them – but offshore wind is actually a very small chunk of the energy transition, and will likely stay that way (however much I care about the sector myself!) even in Europe…
And even in offshore wind, the utilities are not that dominant, when competition is allowed. The recent Norwegian auction was won by parkwind and INGKA, the French one by Bay.Wa and elicio, the largest financings last year were managed by Northland Power, the biggest floating wind pipeline is probably owned by Bluefloat – all names familiar to industry players but probably not to the wider public (and not to the journalists in the mainstream business press, apparently, as they keep asking the likes of Shell, Ørsted or Iberdrola for their opinion)…
In other words, we are moving from a very centralized system, dominated by large fossil fuel plants (or big hydro and nukes where available), where supply had to adapt to demand, to a highly decentralized one, where demand will adapt to the increased availability of supply at times, in an increasingly diverse number of ways, and we’ll likely have substantial oversupply during the day – until new demand balances it out.
The grid will become used in very different ways – that transformation has been successfully happening in (relative) silence over the past 25 years and will continue.
What also seems likely is that there could be very little room in such a system for baseload production, which will need to deal with very low prices during the growing periods of solar surplus, and may soon not be needed even at night for large parts of the year – you don’t run “must run” plants 25% of the time. There is some level of constant demand from industry and a few vital other sectors, but it seems increasingly unlikely that large centralized plants will be more competitive over the year than a combination of renewables (dominated by solar), storage and some very little used flexible fossil fuel peaker plant capacity.
So, for power generation and the wider energy transition, unexpectedly maybe, small is and will be beautiful, even as the overall volumes are gigantic. For renewables, no headlines is probably a good thing (as most stories seem to be scary ones). And for offshore wind, a lack of “animal spirits” may be a pity, but the sector will remain a niche (very useful in some places) and a relative minnow compared to solar, onshore wind and, increasingly, storage.
Renewables and storage still cheapest option, nuclear too slow and costly in Australia – CSIRO
Giles Parkinson, May 22, 2024, https://reneweconomy.com.au/renewables-and-storage-still-cheapest-option-nuclear-too-slow-and-costly-in-australia-csiro/
Australia’s main scientific body, the CSIRO, has reaffirmed its assessment that integrated renewable energy is by far the cheapest option for Australia, and that nuclear – be it large scale or small modular reactors – is too slow and too costly.
The CSIRO’s findings have been consistent since the first of its now annual GenCost reports was released under the then Coalition government in 2018. In fact the gap between renewables and nuclear has widened, despite the addition of integration and transmission costs to wind and solar, even with up to a 90 per cent renewable share.
Its draft report released late last year re-affirmed that nuclear – the chosen technology of new Coalition leader Peter Dutton and his energy spokesman Ted O’Brien, remained by far the costliest energy choice for Australia.
Dutton is digging in on nuclear, and amid furious attacks from right wing media and so-called think tanks, the Coalition has tried to discredit the CSIRO GenCost report, which is produced in conjunction with energy experts at the Australian Energy Market Operator.
The nuclear boosters were particularly frustrated by the CSIRO’s costings on SMR (small modular reactors), which was based on the NuScale project in the US, the only SMR in the western world to get close to construction, but which was abandoned because of soaring costs that caused its customers to withdraw their support.
The nuclear boosters, and the federal Coalition, want the CSIRO and AEMO to accept the cost forecasts from salesmen for SMR technologies that remain largely on the drawing board and which – unlike the failed NuScale project – have no real world verification.
The CSIRO has now released its final GenCost report, prepared in conjunction with AEMO, and which it describes as the most comprehensive assessment of generation costs ever produced in this country.
The CSIRO has bent over backwards to respond to the criticism from the nuclear lobby, and added an estimated cost in Australia for large scale nuclear. It says is not as pricy as SMR technology, but is still at least double the cost of integrated renewables, and wouldn’t be possible before 2040 even if a commitment was made now.
That’s important, because Australia is the midst of a renewable energy transition that aims for an 82 per cent renewable energy share by 2030. Climate science dictates that speed of emissions cuts is now critically important, and by 2040 the country should be at or close to 100 per cent renewables.
The addition of large scale nuclear was one of a number of changes to the GenCost report from its 2023 edition, including a return to calculations for solar thermal, a technology hoping for its own renaissance, the inclusion of spilled energy from wind and solar, and – in response to more feedback – including integration costs incurred before 2030.
It doesn’t change the picture that much. Wind and solar are still by far the cheapest, in 2023 and in 2030, even though an expected cost reduction for wind energy – whose prices spiked after the Covid pandemic and energy crisis – is now not expected to take much longer until the mid 2030s.
Solar costs, however, are still falling, and it’s important to note that renewable integration costs for 80 per cent renewables in 2030 are less than $100/MWh. Even assuming the money is spent now, before expected cost reductions, the cost for an 80 per cent wind and solar grid in 2023 is put at $120/MWh.
Compare that to the estimated costs for nuclear, which in terms of the political and public debate, are the most revealing, and just a little inconvenient for the Coalition, whose attacks on the CSIRO and AEMO ignore the fact that the same conclusions were reached under its own governance.
The final GenCost report highlights how the favoured technologies of the conservatives – be they nuclear, gas, gas with CCS and coal with CCS – are so much higher than solar and wind with firming. SMRs are four to six times the cost of integrated renewables, and the first projects are likely to be significantly higher.
Large scale nuclear is twice as expensive, again without considering the first of its kind costs which would be necessary in Australia, and without considering the considerable costs of added reserve capacity needed because the plants are so big.
It also does not take into account how nuclear, with its “always on” business model could fit into a future grid already dominated by renewables and needing flexible capacity to support it, not redundant baseload.
Even with the full integrated costs itemised for both the 2023 and the 2030 assessments, the difference is clear.
CSIRO says that its draft GenCost received more submissions than any previous edition, with most of the 45 submissions coming from individuals who support nuclear.
This is not surprising given that no one in the Australian energy industry is the slightest bit interested in the technology, because of its costs and the timelines. As US energy expert Amory Lovins wrote for Renew Economy this week, nuclear “has no place in Australia’s energy future. No one who understands energy markets would claim otherwise.”
Indeed, two of the most prominent public faces of the pro-nuclear campaign in Australia have been a school student and an emergency doctor from Ontario, who have both received remarkable amounts of publicity in mainstream media despite their lack of industry knowledge.
The CSIRO points out that the large scale nuclear costs are at best estimates, because there is no nuclear industry in Australia, and no regulatory framework. First of its kind developments are likely to be exorbitant, but even basing its estimates on the South Korea experience puts the costs of large scale nuclear at a multiple of renewables.
The nuclear lobby has been insistent that wind and solar costs need to factor in the integration costs of the technologies in the grid, including storage and transmission, so no doubt they will insist that the CSIRO now does the same with large scale nuclear.
It is not likely to be cheap. As CSIRO notes, large scale nuclear units normally ranges in size from 1 GW to 1.4 GW or more, far bigger than the biggest coal unit in Australia, which is 750 MW. That will require added reserve capacity of equivalent size in case of an unexpected outage or unplanned maintenance.
In the UK, the regulator estimated that the additional reserve capacity of the Hinkley C nuclear plant would be in the order of $12 billion, on top of the now blown out costs of up to $92 billion for that reactor.
The project that had promised to be “cooking turkeys” by 2017, looks to be a cooked turkey itself by the time it gets switched on in 2031.
Federal energy minister Chris Bowen said the GenCost report validated the Labor government’s focus on renewables, and underlined the risky nature of the Coalition’s “half-baked” goal of keeping ageing coal fired power plants operating until nuclear can be delivered in the 2040s.
“Were small modular nuclear reactors able to be up and running in Australia by 2030, which they aren’t, the ‘first of a kind’ scenario is a cost of between $294/MWh and $764/MWh,” Bowen said. “Meaning small modular nuclear reactors would be up to more than nine times more expensive than firmed large-scale wind and solar.
“We know that Australia has the best solar resources in the world, and today’s report shows large-scale solar alone is 8 per cent cheaper to build than a year ago,” he said.
“We know Australia doesn’t have that time (to wait for nuclear) – 24 coal plants announced their closure dates under the previous government, and 90% of Australia’s coal-fired power is forecast to close by 2035.”
Giles Parkinson is founder and editor of Renew Economy, and is also the founder of One Step Off The Grid and founder/editor of the EV-focused The Driven. He is the co-host of the weekly Energy Insiders Podcast. Giles has been a journalist for more than 40 years and is a former business and deputy editor of the Australian Financial Review. You can find him on LinkedIn and on Twitter.
Solar and wind generation will soon pass nuclear, hydro
In a new monthly column for pv magazine, the International Solar Energy Society (ISES) explains how solar and wind are dominating power plant construction.
MAY 20, 2024 INTERNATIONAL SOLAR ENERGY SOCIETY (ISES) Authors: Prof. Ricardo Rüther (UFSC), Prof. Andrew Blakers /ANU https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/05/20/solar-and-wind-generation-will-soon-pass-nuclear-and-hydro/
Our ISES pv magazine column in April showed that the fastest energy change in history is continuing. In 2023, solar and wind together constituted 80% of global net power capacity additions. Growth in power capacity is followed by growth in annual energy generation.
Over the past decade, global solar generation has grown ninefold to reach 1,500 TWh per year while wind generation has tripled to 2300 TWh per year (Figure 1 on original). This corresponds to compound growth rates of 22% and 11% per year respectively. In contrast, hydro, nuclear and coal generation had growth rates of about 1% per year, and gas 3%.
The solar growth rate of 22% per year is equivalent to doubling every 3 years. At this growth rate, solar generation will reach 100,000 TWh per year in 2042 which is enough to fully decarbonize the global economy.
Nuclear has a global average capacity factor of 74%, followed by coal (50% to 70%), combined cycle gas (40% to 60%), wind (30% to 60%), large hydro (30% to 50%), and solar photovoltaics (12% to 25%).
Despite its relatively low capacity factor, solar generation is tracking to surpass nuclear generation in 2026, wind in 2027, hydro in 2028, gas in 2030 and coal in 2032.
Solar and wind are strongly dominating powerplant construction, whereas construction of all other generation technologies is both small and stagnant. Coal, gas and nuclear could be mostly gone by mid-century once retirements outpace new construction.
The leading countries for per capita solar and wind generation are all in Europe, except Australia (Figure 2 on original). Also shown in Figure 2 is global per capita generation from hydro and nuclear. Combined generation from solar and wind in the leading countries is now fourfold larger than the global average generation from hydro and nuclear combined.
Australia is a global pathfinder because, unlike in Europe, it cannot share electricity across national boundaries to reduce the effects of variable weather and demand. Australia must go it alone. Australia is convincingly demonstrating that change can happen quickly with good policies. Over the period 2020 to 2030, fossil generation is falling from 75% to 18%, while solar and wind generation is rising from 19% to 75%.
Brazil and Chile are middle income pathfinder countries, with about 81% and 60% respectively of electricity generation coming from hydro, wind and solar. Pathfinder countries are driven by a desire to reduce both electricity prices and emissions. There are few serious concerns about future grid stability because there will be sufficient investment in storage, transmission, and demand management.
Energy Revolutions – time for a change
https://renewextraweekly.blogspot.com/2024/05/energy-revolutions-time-for-change.html
In this uncompromisingly radical Pluto book entitled Energy Revolutions, with the graphic subtitle Profiteering versus democracy, Dr David Toke argues that the energy crisis is an inevitable result of an industry run by and for corporate profit. He says ‘energy policy was never meant to favour sustainability or energy security – for decades, it has been shaped by corporate interests while hampering renewable alternatives. Now we suffer the cascading consequences’. He says there is an urgent need to radically increase state intervention, including public ownership, and deploy ‘energy democracy’ for the public interest.
However, he is not against market competition as such- it can speed change and help reduce costs. Thus, in his account of the early days of renewables, he says that, as a result of the adoption of Feed In Tariffs in the late 2000’s in Germany and elsewhere, markets were created that ‘meant that the wind and solar industries grew quickly. The costs of renewable energy plummeted, and today renewable energy is much cheaper than either fossil fuels or nuclear power. If things had been left as the anti-renewable incentive campaigners wanted, then of course the renewables industry would never have taken off. The world would be in a parlous position in terms of surviving the fossil fuel price spirals that we see in cycles (in both oil & natural gas price crises). Our ability to deal with the climate crisis would be almost destroyed’.
Toke though says that when markets are used to create monopolies, in pursuit of corporate profits and control, things go seriously awry- as we saw in 2022 and subsequently, with record profits being made by oil and gas companies. With energy prices escalating, Exxon made $55 bn, Shell $40 bn, Chevron $36.5 bn and Equinor $55 bn. Wind-fall taxes can claw back a tiny bit of this profiteering, but it is insignificant when you realise that, as Toke quotes an economist as saying ‘the oil and gas industry has delivered $2.8bn (£2.3bn) a day in pure profit for the last 50 years’. What’s needed is system change.
That of course is the familiar call of most radicals. Toke says, at present ‘the wealthy, who own the shares, get richer at the expense of ordinary people.’ In response, he says, while we can’t simply nationalise oil to solve this problem, since the compensation required would be huge, we can change the way the market works. Crucially, he says, ‘as the renewable energy revolution gathers pace, we need state intervention to ensure that the benefits of lower-cost green energy supplies go to the consumer & not the energy corporations’. In particular, ‘we need to extend government intervention & elements of state ownership of the retail energy supply sector to ensure that the consumer, not the big corporations, benefits from cheap renewable energy.’
The focus on ‘retail supply’ is linked to a proposed decentral shift away from seeing consumers as passive to one in which consumers may also be energy producers (via PV) and/or may also take an active role in managing their energy use (via DSM). Toke also sees them playing more of a role in shaping the system via an expansion of democratic participation, enabled by local energy co-ops, municipal projects & nationalisation of some of the energy systems. He says that public ownership ‘has an important role in delivering services in parts of energy systems where competition is itself either impossible or inefficient. It may be especially relevant to the retail electricity supply sector’. He adds ‘bringing in retail energy supply into public ownership should be cheap for the state to achieve since the companies involved have few tangible assets.’ But, he also looks to boosting competition ‘by the establishment of state companies to develop renewable energy alongside existing private companies’.
Some of this it may sound utopian or even naive, but Toke reminds us that the ‘alternative energy’ activists in the 1970s and 1980s ‘were seen as fringe oddballs by the energy mainstream. Today their vital role in developing niche renewable energy technologies and markets is airbrushed out of history since it contradicts the idea that big capitalism solves the big problems.’ Well yes, and now we live in a world in which renewables will soon dominate – supplying up to 100% of all global energy by 2050. However, as Toke says, it has to be done right. He provides us with, if not a blueprint of what to do, then at least a rough guide to the key political issues, with some very good insights on the situation in the UK, EU and USA. For example, it is amazing how expensive PV cells are in the US and how far France is behind on renewables due to its obsession with, now failing, nuclear.
In terms of technology choice, Toke backs most renewables strongly, though not all biomass, and seems convinced that domestic heat pumps are the best bet for using green power for home heating- whereas he says that green hydrogen, produced using renewable power, ‘needs to be used only for essential purposes, for example for storing renewable energy or for some industrial purposes for which electricity is not desirable. It should not be squandered in the provision of heating or cooling services’.
That’s now a common view: electric powered heat pumps are seen as much more efficient. Even if it does seem odd to abandon gas boilers and the existing gas pipeline system, which some wanted to repurpose for zero carbon green hydrogen use. Of course, some wanted to use fossil-derived blue hydrogen, a very different and very dire thing. But Toke notes that ‘the German coalition was divided when it came to debating a heating law about phasing out gas boilers in existing buildings. As part of a compromise, municipal authorities have been given the task of making plans for heat networks to be powered by large-scale heat pumps’. Well yes, as Toke admits, large heat pumps are more efficient. Although, dare I say, Combined Heat and Power plants, feeding heat nets and heat stores, can be even better and can help with grid balancing.
We can of course debate the pros and cons of each option and Toke takes us through some of the issues including, inevitably, nuclear, which he is clearly not fond of- not least since it is expensive and inflexible. Although his assertion that ‘once the current spurt of labour-intensive industrialism peters out in China, their drive in building nuclear power will fade, leaving nuclear in decline’, is maybe a bit too optimistic. Overall through, pronouncements like this aside, this is a good book if you want to get to grips with some of the key political and economic issues facing renewable energy and green politics- in a fast changing world.
California hits stunning new solar and battery records in postcard from energy future
Giles Parkinson , 3 May 24, https://reneweconomy.com.au/california-hits-stunning-new-solar-and-battery-records-in-postcard-of-energy-future/—
The records on renewable and battery storage continue to tumble in the northern spring as the technologies plays an increasingly important role in two of the biggest state grids in the world – California and Texas.
In California, as Renew Economy has reported over the last week, battery storage has emerged as often the biggest supplier of power for multiple hours in the state’s evening peak, meeting as much as 27 per cent of demand from its fleet of more than 10,000 MW of big batteries.
On Tuesday, California time, battery output jumped about 7,000 MW for the first time, reaching a peak of 7,046 MW at 7.55pm local time, nearly 300 MW above the peak set just a day earlier, and more than 1GW above the record that stood just two weeks earlier.
In Texas, battery capacity is also setting new benchmarks, reaching above 2,000 MW for just the second time ever and for the first time this summer. That share will grow dramatically with another 5 GW of battery capacity being added to the grid this year.
Solar records are also tumbling in quick fashion on both grids, underlying the need for battery storage as the solar output ramps down leading into the evening peaks in both states.
In California, a new peak of 18.54 GW of solar was reached at 1.10pm on Thursday, when battery storage was soaking up 4.4 GW of this output. It was the third time the solar output record had occurred in the last week.
Over the past two months, the share of wind, water and solar has imposed itself on the grid, reaching more than 100 per cent of demand on the last 19 consecutive days, sometimes for nine hours or more, and for 48 out of the last 56 days.
In Texas, a new record for solar also occurred last month when it reached 18.8 GW. This week, the PJM grid in the mid-west of the US set a new solar output record of 7.05 GW, the first time it reached above 7GW, and nearly double its record output from a year ago.
Giles Parkinson is founder and editor of Renew Economy, and is also the founder of One Step Off The Grid and founder/editor of the EV-focused The Driven. He is the co-host of the weekly Energy Insiders Podcast. Giles has been a journalist for 40 years and is a former business and deputy editor of the Australian Financial Review.
Germany records 50 hours of negative electricity prices for April, largely due to renewables.
Average retail prices fell to €6.24 ($6.70)/kWh on the German electricity spot
market in April, largely due to renewables covering about 70% of the
network load. These low price levels in the electricity market can be
attributed to the high shares of renewables in Germany. According to Rabot
Charge, renewable energy systems covered 70% of the network load in April.
PV Magazine 3rd May 2024
Huge success of renewable energy in California – over 100% of demand for many days
Statistics and Graphs for the 48 of 56 Days From March 8-May 2, 2024,
Where Wind-Water-Solar (WWS) Supply Exceeded 100% of Demand on
California’s Main Grid for 0.25-9.92 Hours Per Day.
Stanford University 3rd May 2024
G7 Countries Task IRENA to Monitor Group’s Renewable Energy Progress
IRENA, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 30 April 2024 – Today, G7 leaders tasked the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to track and monitor the group’s collective contribution toward the global renewable tripling target by 2030. The target was established by the UAE Consensus last November at COP28, aligning global climate ambitions with IRENA’s 1.5°C pathway, mapped out by the Agency’s World Energy Transitions Outlook.
“Trust and transparency go hand in hand,” said IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera, who is attending the G7 Ministers’ Meeting on Climate, Energy and Environment. “IRENA will respond swiftly to the request by G7 members to track the group’s progress toward the global target to triple renewable power capacity by 2030.”
Citing an IRENA brief for the G7, the communiqué indicates that the group’s solar PV expansion target by 2030 is on track if some enhancements to existing policies are made in a timely manner. It notes the need for further acceleration in offshore wind deployment through enhanced and flexible policy efforts, faster permitting, and offshore grid extension.
“The G7 is making notable strides in accelerating solar PV deployment, and there is commitment to the development of offshore wind. Advancing all forms of renewables, along with infrastructure modernisation, will be essential for G7 nations to realise their energy transition aspirations,” Mr. La Camera added.
The G7 communiqué commits the group to increase system flexibility through grid reinforcement, in line with IRENA analysis of key metrics that suggests efforts need to be accelerated. The group also called for the significant expansion of energy storage capacity, by more than six-fold by 2030, from 230 GW in 2022. This falls within the range of IRENA’s recommendations for energy storage capacity by 2030.
I
It also calls on international organisations, including IRENA, to continue their work on industrial decarbonisation particularly standards and technology development for hard-to-abate sectors as outlined in a second brief published as a contribution to the G7 discussions.
G7 countries also recognised the urgent need to increase the group’s efforts in developing countries, committing to supporting the Accelerated Partnership for Renewable Energy in Africa (APRA). Under the auspices of APRA, Kenya and IRENA will convene the first APRA Investment Forum in September 2024 to accelerate the deployment of renewables-based energy systems and green industrialisation in APRA Member countries…………………………. more https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2024/Apr/G7-Countries-Task-IRENA-to-Monitor-Groups-Renewable-Energy-Progress
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