Building wind farms often cheaper than running old coal plants
Fluctuations in solar, wind power remain a challenge: Lazard
Building solar and wind farms has started to become a cheaper proposition than running aging coal and nuclear generators in parts of the U.S., according to financial adviser Lazard Ltd.
Take wind: Building and operating a utility-scale farm costs $30 to $60 a megawatt-hour over its lifetime, and that can drop to as low as $14 when factoring in subsidies, according an annual analysis that Lazard’s been performing for a decade. Meanwhile, just keeping an existing coal plant running can cost $26 to $39 and a nuclear one $25 to $32.
Two years ago, “what was interesting to us was the lifetime cost of renewables on an energy basis reached parity with conventional resources in a bunch of geographies in the U.S.,” said Jonathan Mir, head of the North American power group at Lazard. “Now, what we are seeing is that renewable technologies on a fully loaded basis are beating” existing coal and nuclear plants in some regions.
The report by Lazard, whose estimates are widely used in the power sector as benchmarks, comes as President Donald Trump’s administration is vowing to stop the “war on coal” and put America’s miners back to work. Hundreds of power plants burning the fuel have shut in recent years amid escalating competition from natural gas, wind and solar. Energy Secretary Rick Perry has proposed rewarding coal and nuclear plants with extra payments for their dependability, touching off a national debate over the country’s future power mix.
“We still need, in a modern grid, fuel diversification and a diverse generation stack,” Mir said.So someone has to think hard about how to organize this transition.”
The sudden swings in generation from wind and solar farms remain a challenge for power grid operators, he said. A modern system can handle renewables supplying about 30 percent of its power — and as much as 50 percent in some cases — but levels beyond that require storage technologies, he said.
Gas has helped, backstopping intermittent solar and wind generation. And their combined decline in costs is rapidly changing the U.S. power mix, Mir said. Globally, renewables are set to almost double from last year to make up 51 percent of the mix by 2040, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The challenge of keeping open older plants has arrived faster than expected and more early retirements may ensue, he said.
These days, the most efficient gas-fired plants now cost about $700 a kilowatt to build, down from $1,000 to $1,100 five years ago, Mir said. Rooftop solar remains expensive in the U.S., costing four to five times as much as a utility-sized solar farm.
The drop in renewable energy costs is already changing how utilities operate, Mir said, using American Electric Power Co. as an example. Once the biggest burner of coal in the U.S., AEP is now planning to invest $4.5 billion in wind power and has said it could stop burning the fossil fuel altogether. “AEP is doing this because it is the cheapest way to provide energy,” he said.
To Close Climate Goals Gap: Drop Coal, Ramp Up Renewables — Fast, UN Says
A new UNEP report shows that the gap between the climate promises countries made at Paris and the emissions cuts needed is larger than previously thought. Inside Climate news Georgina Gustin, 2 Nov 17
Countries will have to phase out coal and invest in renewable energy even faster than previously expected to keep global warming below perilous levels and fend off the most dangerous impacts of climate change, according to a United Nations report released just before the next round of international climate talks.
The United Nations Environment Program on Tuesday released its annual report on the “emissions gap“—the distance between countries’ pledged commitments for meeting the targets of the 2015 Paris climate agreement and the pathways that scientists estimate could actually achieve those targets….
“The overarching conclusions of the report are that there is an urgent need for accelerated short-term action and enhanced longer-term national ambition, if the goals of the Paris Agreement are to remain achievable,” the report says. “And that practical and cost-effective options are available to make this possible.”
In other words, the world’s countries need to get moving—and fast. But there’s hope.
Staying Under 1.5C Tough, but Not Impossible
With each edition, the report’s message has become increasingly urgent as growing research suggests that reigning in global warming will require much more action than countries first outlined in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in advance of the Paris process……
The report also notes that “subnational” efforts, including those taken by corporations or states—such as the “We Are Still In” initiative and the Northeast’s Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative—have major potential above countries’ INDCs.
Independent 1st Nov 2017, Germany generated enough wind power at the weekend for consumers to get
free energy. So much was generated by wind turbines in weekend storms that
costs fell to below zero. Bloomberg reported that power prices turned
negative as wind output reached 39,409 megawatts on Saturday. To balance
supply and demand in this situation, energy producers close power stations
or pay consumers to take extra electricity from the network.
Independent 27th Oct 2017,German power producers are poised to pay customers to use electricity this
weekend. Wind generation is forecast to climb to a record on Sunday,
creating more output than needed and driving electricity prices below zero,
broker data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Environmental Research Web 28th Oct 2017, In his wide ranging review of energy costs for the UK government, Prof.Dieter Helm says ‘the cost of energy is too high, and higher than
necessary to meet the Climate Change Act (CCA) target and the carbon
budgets. Households and businesses have not fully benefited from the
falling costs of gas and coal, the rapidly falling costs of renewables, or
from the efficiency gains to network and supply costs which come from smart
technologies. Prices should be falling, and they should go on falling into
the medium and longer terms’. And he sets out his ideas for enabling that
to happen.
“India is emerging as the world leader in generating clean energy, although it started by generating 17 MW of solar power in 2010, when Jawaharlal Nehru Solar Mission was launched,” Ms. Jaiswal told the media while inspecting the Kurnool Ultra Mega Solar Park at Sakunala in Gadivemula mandal of Kurnool district, said to be the largest solar park in the world. Andhra Pradesh was in the forefront among other States in solar power generation by setting solar parks to generate 4,000 MW, she added.
There was a global push for clean energy owing to limitations such as coal availability and climate changes, Ms. Jaiswal said. The Paris Climate Agreement signed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then US President Barack Obama in 2015 determined that 40% of non-fossil power must be generated by 2030. During his visit to California, Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu held discussions with California Governor Jerry Brown and explained him about his plans to boost solar power, the NDRC Director said.
The NDRC has been working with the Union Ministry of New and Renewable Energy and Ministry of Power since a decade and helped in design and identification of suitable locations for solar parks. It was working with Administrative Staff College of India, Hyderabad, on building energy efficient buildings, working on curbing air pollution at Ahmedabad in Gujarat and heat action plan in 30 cities, including Hyderabad.
NDRC Renewable Lead Nehmat Kaur said the organisation was working in the US, China and India and has three million members. Its focus was on clean energy, climate resilience, air pollution and heat and air-conditioners having cooling with less warmth. The penetration of air-conditioners was 6% in India, where as it was 94% in China, Ms. Kaur said.
The rooftop market for solar power was mainly from the commercial and industrial sectors and some challenges like storage capacity remained in solar parks, Ms. Kaur stated. She advocated the concept of green banks and green bonds to mop up funds for solar power projects and added that they could attract international investors.
A.P. Solar Power Corporation Private Limited CEO G. Adisheshu explained about the 1,000 MW solar parks in Kurnool, Kadapa and Anantapur districts. A 1,000 MW solar park was proposed in Prakasam district besides an additional 500 MW plant in Anantapur. There were plans to set up two or three more solar parks in Kurnool district, he added. He gave a Power-point presentation on Kurnool ultra mega solar park. The NDRC team visited the Greenko office and the control room in the solar park.
Independent 25th Oct 2017. A subsidy ban for new onshore wind farms could add £1bn onto energy bills
over five years by eschewing one of the cheapest forms of clean energy.
Generating power from new onshore wind farms would be £100m a year cheaper
than doing so from new nuclear reactors or biomass plants, and at least
£30m cheaper than under the latest offshore wind-power contracts,
according to research by the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, a
London-based non-profit group.
Struggling Puerto Rico children’s hospital gets solar power from Tesla, http://abcnews.go.com/US/struggling-puerto-rico-childrens-hospital-solar-power-tesla/story?id=50721869By J.J. GALLAGHER Oct 25, 2017,A children’s hospital in Puerto Rico that was forced to run off generators and ration diesel fuel in the wake of Hurricane Maria now has a solar power system that will supply all of its electricity needs. Tesla and Puerto Rico’s governor touted the project yesterday, sending out multiple official tweets and Facebook posts, and officials said today that the system is already providing solar-generated electricity to the hospital.
The Hospital del Nino is located in the capital San Juan and serves about 3,000 children across the island. The hospital also houses some 30 children with serious medical needs that require round-the-clock care.
A hospital spokesperson told Primera Hora last month that they were forced to ration diesel fuel and take other measures to ensure a constant flow of electricity.
Hurricane Maria also knocked down all of the trees surrounding the hospital, resulting in heat from the withering tropical sun beating down on the building and its surroundings.
Tesla’s system works with solar panels that generate electricity during the day and batteries that store the power and distribute it when the sun isn’t shining. Earlier this month, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that his company could bring solar power to Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello replied “let’s talk” and later said the two had a “great initial conversation.”
Less than three weeks later, officials say the hospital is up and running with a solar system that supplies all of its electricity needs.
“I’ve never seen a team arrive so fast and work so fast. They built this in a week,” Rafael Pagán, the hospital’s chairman of the board, told Telemundo.
Just 25 percent of Puerto Rico’s 3.4 million residents have electricity, according to the latest figures, and some 3,758 people are still in shelters nearly two months after Maria ravaged the island, causing widespread damages and killing 51 people.
Rossello has promised to fully restore electricity to the island by Christmas, a goal that analysts have cast doubt upon.
Repairing Puerto Rico’s badly damaged electrical grid could take months and cost billions of dollars. Musk has put forth his so-called solar microgrids, that produce energy locally through solar energy, as an alternative.
ABC News’ Joshua Hoyos contributed to this report.
Climate News Network 25th Oct 2017, Two Californian scientists have worked out how to achieve a wind-powered
world that provides the entire planet with wind energy without spoiling the
view with turbines on every hilltop.
The answer: take wind farming onto the
high seas. The force of the winds sweeping across the open ocean would be
enough to generate 18 billion kilowatts – which is about the global
annual energy demand right now.
The scientists report in the Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences that although the best that wind farms on
land can deliver is electricity at the rate of 1.5 watts per square metre,
the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic could do much better: up to 6 watts
per square metre. http://climatenewsnetwork.net/23244-2/
NFLA 25th Oct 2017, The Nuclear Free Local Authorities (NFLA) warmly welcomes an exciting
initiative by Greater Manchester local authorities in its ‘Big Clean
Switch’ campaign. This scheme is encouraging both larger organisations
and members of the public to switch on to cheaper 100% renewable energy
providers for their electricity needs.
The ‘GM Big Clean Switch’ is acollaboration between the 10 Greater Manchester Councils and the
organisation ‘The Big Clean Switch’, which is encouraging greater
take-up with energy companies developing renewable gas and electricity
solutions. ‘The Big Clean Switch’ is a partnership between the climate
change campaigners at Purpose and the social enterprise Clean Energy UK.
This partnership with the GM Combined Authority is the first attempt to
encourage such a large switching to renewable energy companies and plans
are being made to look at delivering it elsewhere over the future. As the
‘Big Clean Switch’ note, this campaign is unique. It is the first time
a town or city has tried to save residents money by helping them switch to
green energy (let alone 10 local authorities working together), and it is
the first time an energy switching campaign of any kind has attracted such
city-wide support from other organisations, from universities to football
clubs. http://www.nuclearpolicy.info/news/nfla-welcomes-gm-big-clean-switch-support-decentralised-renewable-energy-solutions/
Business Green 25th Oct 2017, The government’s “outdated” ban on developing new onshore wind farms on
mainland Britain is blocking access to the cheapest available form of new
electricity generation, and having a negative impacts on bills, climate
change targets, and businesses.
New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern signs coalition deal, names Winston Peters Deputy PM, ABC News 24 Oct 17, New Zealand’s incoming Government is hoping to make the nation greener by planting 100 million trees each year, ensuring the electricity grid runs entirely from renewable energy, and spending more money on cycle ways and rail transport.
Key points:
Incoming prime minister Jacinda Ardern signs coalition deal with NZ First and the Greens Party
Ms Ardern says the country aims to generate 100 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2035
She also plans to raise the minimum wage by 27 per cent
Prime minister-elect Jacinda Ardern and NZ First Leader Winston Peters — who will serve as deputy prime minster and foreign affairs minister in the new Government — signed the coalition agreement on Tuesday and outlined their priorities……
Ardern aiming for 100 per cent renewable energy
Ms Ardern’s plan is for New Zealand to reduce its net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by the year 2050.
Some of the targets will require only incremental changes.
New Zealand already generates about 85 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources including hydroelectric, geothermal and wind.
Ms Ardern plans to increase that to 100 per cent by 2035, in part by investigating whether solar panels can be used atop schools.
She said the country would need to double the amount of trees it plants each year, a goal she said was “absolutely achievable” by using land that was marginal for farming animals.
Renew Economy 18th Oct 2017, China is on track to install a record-smashing 50GW of solar PV in 2017,
with latest data showing that the nation has so far installed around 42GW,
taking its total installed PV capacity to around 120GW. According to the
latest report from Asia Europe Clean Energy Consultants (AECEA), China
needs to add just under 3GW of new solar in each remaining month of 2017 to
reach 50GW, and deliver a second consecutive record breaking year. http://reneweconomy.com.au/china-set-add-50gw-new-solar-pv-2017/
The Sun Rises on Japan’s Solar-Powered Smart Communities, Solar Magazine, By Andrew Burger – 16 Oct 17
Smart communities fueled by solar energy and the latest in advanced energy storage and smart microgrid technologies are taking root and beginning to expand in Japan, part and parcel of a national drive to enhance energy resilience and independence. Strong political and “grass roots” public support for “green energy,” greater consumer choice and renewable energy self-generation has emerged in Japan in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, which all but leveled Tokyo Electric Power’s Daiichi nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture.
Among the latest developments, PanaHome Corp., ENERES, IBJ Leasing and the government of Hyogo Prefecture on Sept. 21 launched a smart energy residential community development project. Joined by Panasonic, project partners are aiming to install solar photovoltaic (PV)-lithium-ion battery energy storage systems in 117 homes and integrate them to create an energy resilient and self-sufficient community microgrid in Smart City Shioashiya Solar-Shima, a district within Ashiya City. Looking ahead, project team intends to expand the initial solar-storage residential community microgrid this month by building out infrastructure and interconnecting Shioashiya Solar-Shima’s microgrid to a regional power and energy distribution grid network……..
New wind turbine efficiency so great utilities ‘repowering’ farms early https://electrek.co/2017/10/16/new-wind-turbine-efficiency-so-great-utilities-repowering-farms-early/ John Fitzgerald Weaver – Oct. 16th 2017 @SolarInMASS
Warren Buffett owned MidAmerican Energy is upgrading wind turbines in Iowa early in their lifetimes in order to take advantage of the newest innovations in gear boxes and blades. Since only small parts of the already developed wind farms need be upgraded – these moves will increase the profitability of the farms. Wind turbines are evolving at a fast enough pace that waiting for standard end of life (30 years) means leaving money on the table.
I estimate an additional $51M/year in revenue from MidAmerican’s repowering.
John Hensley, deputy director for industry data and analysis at the American Wind Energy Association, says 700MW of wind power has been repowered in the USA. MidAmerican stated that they’re upgrading 1,000MW of their 4,000MW of wind (in Iowa). Their project will take through 2020 to complete.
As the article above notes – Wind projects started before 2017 qualified for the full production tax credit of 2.4 cents per kilowatt hour. The credit falls to 80 percent of that for projects started in 2017; 60 percent for those started in 2018; and 40 percent for those started in 2019. Most of the life of these system upgrades will be long after the wind production credit diminishes.
Interestingly –
After refurbishing some of the turbines at the Diablo Winds project in the Altamont Pass in California, researchers found that the fatality rates fell by 54 percent for raptors and 66 percent for all birds.
MidAmerican estimates that repowering the farms would increase output from the turbines by 19-28%. Annually, wind farms lower in output by about 1.7% per year. The lifetime of a wind farm has historically been around 30 years.
Electrek’s Take
With capacity factors around 40% on the newest projects (33% on older projects) – combined with 1,000MW of upgraded hardware – there will be an additional 613 million kWh/year coming from these turbines. The average American home uses about 10,000kWh/year for comparison. If the average price of electricity in Iowa (before taxes) is around .0835¢/kWh, then that’s $51M a year in new revenue. If this 1GW of wind cost $1B to install – that’s an extra 5% return on investment per year after accounting for the cost of upgrades (roughly of course).
This expanding evolution – adding future revenue to projects via strategic plant repowering in an age of fast maturing hardware – changes operations and maintenance in renewable technology giving those building today’s utility-scale power plants an improved tool to lower up front pricing. These towers are being repowered in their 14th to 11th years (plus or minus a few depending on order). There is a spreadsheet inside of MidAmerican which did some calculus to determine when money earning and repowering cost curves intersected – and that intersection was when the new investment was acted on. Thirty years with a constant declining power output will now change to developers signing contracts with large manufacturers at time of original construction to upgrade hardware in 8 to 10 years. These contracts will depend on developers and finance houses trusting that these manufacturers can continue the technological march forward in an aggressive manner.
Repowering is an old concept – but it’s getting more headlines today in renewables because large number of systems are hitting that age and the burning pace of technological innovation.
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