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Why Nuclear Fusion Will Not Solve the AI Power Problem

By Kurt Cobb – Dec 22, 2025, https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Nuclear-Fusion-Will-Not-Solve-the-AI-Power-Problem.html

  • Claims of “net energy gain” in fusion experiments often exclude the massive energy consumed by the full system, leading to misleading headlines.
  • Even under optimistic timelines, commercial fusion power would not arrive until the latter half of the century.
  • Fusion exemplifies a recurring pattern in energy history: bold promises that underestimate the time, cost, and complexity of real-world deployment.

With the supposed need for vast new electricity generation to fuel the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, AI companies are pushing nuclear power as one solution to provide that power for the many data centers they plan to build. (Count me skeptical of the boom and therefore of the need for vast new electricity generation capacity. See herehereherehere, and here.) AI boosters usually talk about expanding existing nuclear power technologies, that is, fission reactors that run on uranium and (more dangerously) on plutonium.

But it is well to keep in mind that there are two kinds of nuclear power: fission and fusion. For now, there are no commercial fusion reactors since with current technology it takes far more than the equivalent of a kilowatt of energy to produce a kilowatt of electricity. This is because it takes a lot of energy just to get a fusion reaction going. The current state of affairs in fusion reminds me of the old joke about the manufacturer who admits he loses a nickel on every sale, but claims he makes it up in volume.

Fortunately, fusion researchers are smarter than this and await the day when fusion technology can produce more energy than it consumes. That waiting has spawned another well-worn joke about the coming of clean, limitless fusion energy, namely, that it’s only 25 years away and always will be. (Whether fusion energy will be clean, that is, non-radioactive, is debatable.)

It’s no surprise, then, that with the AI industry saying it needs a lot more energy now, the predicted advent of net-energy-positive fusion is being moved up. In this case, Commonwealth Fusion Systems, a startup spun off by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, claims that by 2027 it will achieve the feat of producing more energy from a fusion device than is consumed. The Chinese government is a bit more vague, saying its research program may, within a few years, produce more energy than is consumed by a fusion reaction.

When this achievement is announced, it will be important to read the fine print. Eleven years ago, scientists working on fusion at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California were able to produce more energy output in a fusion experiment than was used to produce the fuel. That feat, however, didn’t take into account the amount of energy needed by the entire system, which was 118 times more than the energy output. Some media outlets (who apparently did not read or understand the background materials) erroneously reported that the experiment had, in fact, achieved the feat of producing more energy than it consumed.

In 2022, the same laboratory declared it had achieved a net energy gain (read the second subheading) from a fusion reaction. Again, reading the fine print is important. As this article points out, “while a single shot may produce more energy than the fuel absorbs, the entire facility, from lasers to cryogenics to control systems, still consumes far more power than it delivers.” Said simply, you have to look at the whole system to understand the energy balance. This analysis suggests that the entire system actually consumed about 100 times the energy output of the experiment. The experiment did mark progress. But we remain nowhere near producing net energy from fusion reactions, not least because there is currently no system that can provide more than a momentary burst of energy instead of the sustained reaction seen in conventional fission reactors.

The Chinese government said it expects to have a pilot fusion plant operating by the 2030s or 2040s. First, that’s pretty far away (and vague), and the realization of commercial fusion power is much further away, even if this plan comes to fruition. A pilot plant is only the second stage of the development of commercial fusion power. First comes the prototype, which helps validate the technology. Then comes the pilot plant, which demonstrates that such technology will, in fact, integrate successfully with the existing electric grid.

Then comes a demonstration plant, which is a full-size test of the economic and commercial viability of the technology. At this stage, utility managers want hard evidence that such plants are reliable and profitable. Demonstration plants could be as far off as the 2050s or 2060s, again, even if we assume the schedule for pilot plants proves to be doable. And then, utilities would have to decide to try to build their own fusion plants, and that might only begin in the late 2050s. Widespread adoption might take another 20 to 30 years.

Even if fusion-generating plants turn out to be feasible, the idea that they are going to provide any near-term fix for our energy needs or for addressing climate change is completely misguided.

Energy transitions take time. They occur over more than one generation. In times of great stress, such as ours, people look for miraculous solutions. Fusion seems like one of those solutions. But it will almost certainly NOT turn out to be miraculous and, if feasible, will be painstakingly slow to emerge as a major energy source for human civilization.

December 26, 2025 Posted by | technology | Leave a comment

How reporting facts can now land you in jail for 14 years as a terrorist

Jonathon Cook Blog, 22 December 2025

Starmer’s government has set the most dangerous of precedents: it can now outlaw any political group it chooses as a terrorist organisation – and thereby make it impossible to defend it

The moment the British government began proscribing political movements as terrorist organisations, rather than just militant groups, it was inevitable that saying factual things, making truthful statements, would become a crime.

And lo behold, here we are.

The Terrorism Act 2000 has a series of provisions that make it difficult to voice or show any kind of support for an organisation proscribed under the legislation, whether it is writing an article or wearing a T-shirt.

Recent attention has focused on Section 13, which is being used to hound thousands of mostly elderly people who have held signs saying: “I oppose genocide, I support Palestine Action.” They now face a terrorism conviction and up to six months in jail.

But an amendment introduced in 2019 to Section 12 of the Act has been largely overlooked, even though it is even more repressive. It makes it a terrorism offence for a person to express “an opinion or belief that is supportive of a proscribed organisation” and in doing so be “reckless” about whether anyone else might be “encouraged to support” the organisation.

It is hard to believe this clause was not inserted specifically to target the watchdog professions: journalists, human rights groups and lawyers. They now face up to 14 years in jail for contravening this provision……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

the reality is that social media is awash with posts from people echoing outrageous official disinformation. This spreads unchallenged because to challenge it is now cast as a terrorism offence.

In truth, since proscription, any statements about the political aims of a deeply political organisation like Palestine Action occupy a grey area of the law.

Is it a terrorism offence to point out the fact, as I have done above, that Palestine Action targeted Elbit factories that send killer drones to Israel for use in Gaza. In doing so, may I have “recklessly” encouraged you to support Palestine Action?

Can I express any kind of positive view about the hunger strikers or their actions without violating the law?

The truth is that the law’s greyness is its very point. It maximises the chilling effect on those who are supposed to serve as the public’s watchdogs on power: journalists, human rights groups, lawyers. https://www.jonathan-cook.net/blog/2025-12-22/reporting-facts-14-years-jail/

December 26, 2025 Posted by | civil liberties, UK | Leave a comment

Hawai‘i Has a Rare Opportunity to Reclaim Land From the US Military

The US military is abusing Hawaiian land. Will residents be able to exert Indigenous sovereignty and get it back?

BChristine Ahn & Davis Price , Truthout, December 22, 2025

Since 1964, the U.S. military has leased roughly 47,000 acres of land from the State of Hawai‘i — for a token $1. The leases, which account for 18 percent of military lands in Hawai‘i, are set to expire in 2029, offering Hawai‘i a rare opportunity to reclaim land from the war machine. As the expiration date looms, Hawai‘i residents are at a crossroads: remain a staging ground for U.S. imperialism or pivot toward community well‑being, environmental sustainability, and economic self‑determination.

But that decision may arrive sooner than 2029: Allegedly faced with pressure from federal officials to fast-track lease renewals by the end of this year, Democratic Gov. Josh Green signed a statement of principles in September with Army Secretary Dan Driscoll expressing the intention to “explore the feasibility of land use that aligns national security and Army readiness needs with the State’s priorities for public benefit.” A month later, Green sent Driscoll a proposal for a $10 billion plan that included a “community benefits” package. He argued that this sum would be favorable should the Army pursue “condemnation,” the use of eminent domain to seize Hawai‘i’s land for “national security.”

Native Hawaiian groups swiftly condemned the move in a September 2 statement signed by 40 organizations. They opposed fast-tracking the leases and pointed out that Green and Driscoll sidestepped federal and state statutes that require a thorough review — a process the Army and Navy had already failed to complete earlier that year.

After mounting pressure from the Office of Hawaiian Affairs, state legislators, and numerous environmental and civic organizations, Green walked back the end-of-year deadline and extended the negotiation timeline into 2026. Still, the episode highlighted how easily the U.S. military can bypass democratic debate in the name of “national security,” and how vital it is for the public to have informed discussions about the military’s impact on Hawai‘i.

How Hawai‘i Became Occupied

The U.S. military controls roughly 254,000 acres across Hawai‘i, making it the most militarized state per capita in the country. On O‘ahu alone, the military occupies 86,000 acres, or 25 percent of the island. These lands were part of the “ceded” territories illegally seized from the Hawaiian Kingdom.

Once a sovereign nation, Hawai‘i was the starting point for America’s century of imperialism and conquest in the Pacific. In the late-19th century, American missionaries and plantation owners, seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs on Hawaiian sugar, conspired with the U.S. Navy to orchestrate a coup to overthrow Queen Lili‘uokalani in 1893.

Although the coup was condemned by President Grover Cleveland as illegal, in 1898 President William McKinley signed the Newlands Resolution, illegally annexing Hawai‘i as a U.S. territory through a joint congressional resolution, bypassing the legally required two-thirds majority in the Senate to ratify a treaty between two nations.

After annexation, the provisional government reclassified Crown and government lands as “public” property and transferred them to the U.S. Interior Department………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..Native Hawaiian advocates are building momentum toward a shift in the governance of resources in Hawaiʻi, which has been dominated by extractive and abusive industries, such as the military, for too long. While large‑scale stewardship projects exist, they are often treated as side ventures, and lack long‑term capital investments, like roads or schools. Investing in regenerative economies, Lee argues, could create thousands of place‑based jobs in restoration, farming, and renewable energy. “We’d keep more money circulating locally instead of leaking out, building real security from the inside out,” Lee explains. “Hawai‘i’s resilience is national security.”

By engaging in informed public debate about the economic, environmental, and cultural costs of the military’s footprint — and exploring repurposing the military’s footprint for community-driven, sustainable uses — Hawai‘i can transform from a base preparing for war into a beacon of peace, resilience, and Indigenous innovation. https://truthout.org/articles/hawaii-has-a-rare-opportunity-to-reclaim-land-from-the-us-military/

December 26, 2025 Posted by | OCEANIA, politics, USA | Leave a comment

  UK’s largest planned data centre ‘could use 50 times more water’ than developer claims.

The developer of the UK’s largest proposed data
centre is likely significantly understating the scale of its planned water
footprint, teams of investigative journalists have claimed.

US-based data
centre developer QTS recently secured permission from the local council for
its campus in Cambois, Northumberland. It plans to build 10 data halls
across a 133-acre site, at a cost of $13.5bn. The site had previously been
home to Britishvolt, which had intended to develop a battery gigafactory
for the electric car sector before it folded. QTS’s proposals also
include cooling systems and dozens of diesel-powered generators to act as
an emergency backup, the BBC reports. These should only be used
“occasionally” on a “temporary basis”.

 Edie 22nd Dec 2025, https://www.edie.net/uks-largest-planned-data-centre-could-use-50-times-more-water-than-developer-claims/

December 26, 2025 Posted by | environment, UK | Leave a comment

Scottish Government urged to intervene in Edinburgh AI data centre plans

 THE Scottish Government has been urged to intervene after council
officials ruled that an environmental impact assessment for a huge
artificial intelligence data centre is not required.

Edinburgh City Council
is currently considering plans for a new AI data centre on the site of the
former RBS headquarters in South Gyle, near Edinburgh Airport. Shelborn
Drummond Ltd, an offshoot of Shelborn Asset Management, is behind the plans
for the “Green Data Centre”.

We previously told how the Shelborn data
centre, and another proposed by Apatura near to Heriot-Watt University,
would demand the equivalent amount of energy as building five cities the
same size as the capital within its boundaries. The revelation about the
vast amount of electricity the sites will consume has sparked concerns from
environmental campaigners, and had previously raised concerns that there
would be no requirement for the firms behind the plans to carry out an
environmental impact assessment (EIA).

A screening opinion published on
Friday December 18, by a senior planner at the local authority, ruled that
an EIA would not be required. Action to Protect Rural Scotland (APRS) said
the Shelborn data centre will use the same amount of energy as a quarter of
a million households, and it was “gobsmacking” that the impact on the
local environment would not be taken into consideration.

 The National 22nd Dec 2025, https://www.thenational.scot/news/25715123.scottish-government-urged-intervene-edinburgh-ai-data-centre/

December 26, 2025 Posted by | technology, UK | Leave a comment

The Sovereign Hook – How Australia and its Jewish Community are Played in a Foreign Game.

The final stage of the playbook is the deliberate conflation of three distinct entities: the Jewish faith, the Jewish people (especially in the diaspora), and the political State of Israel. Political Zionism’s success depends on merging these concepts, thereby framing any criticism of Israeli state policy as an attack on Jewish people globally, which is then branded as antisemitism.

23 December 2025 Andrew Klein,  https://theaimn.net/the-sovereign-hook-how-australia-and-its-jewish-community-are-played-in-a-foreign-game/

Introduction: A Sovereign Nation on a Foreign Hook

The premise is stark and troubling: Australia is being played. This manipulation operates on two interconnected levels: the geopolitical, where Australian sovereignty and policy are leveraged to serve a foreign nation’s interests, and the communal, where the rich, complex history of Australian Jewry is reduced to a political pawn. The cynical exploitation of the Bondi Beach tragedy – used to justify cross-border political pressure and a rapid legislative response absent in domestic crises – is not an anomaly. It is the latest move in a long game, one that deliberately conflates Jewish identity, faith, and safety with the agenda of the modern Israeli state. This article traces the historical roots of this conflation and examines its contemporary manifestation, arguing that both the Australian body politic and its Jewish citizens are victims of a sophisticated foreign policy playbook.

Part I: The Australian Jewish Tapestry – From First Fleet to National Pillars

The history of Jews in Australia begins with the First Fleet in 1788, with at least eight Jewish convicts among the initial colonists. This community grew steadily through the 19th century, comprised initially of British Jews and later supplemented by those fleeing persecution in Eastern Europe. By Federation in 1901, they numbered over 15,000 and were recognised as equal citizens in a society where the antisemitism endemic to Europe was notably rare.

Their integration and contribution to Australian nation-building are undeniable. In commerce, Jewish entrepreneurs were central to sectors like clothing manufacturing, particularly in Melbourne’s Flinders Lane, creating employment and industry. In service to the nation, no figure looms larger than General Sir John Monash. The son of Jewish parents from East Prussia, Monash commanded the Australian Corps in 1918 with such brilliance that he is considered one of the war’s most celebrated commanders. His leadership, however, was attacked by rivals, including official war historian C.E.W. Bean, who expressed antisemitic views about Jews’ “ability… to push themselves”. Monash’s triumph over this bigotry to become a national hero symbolised a powerful truth: loyalty and identity for Australian Jews were directed at their home country, Australia.

This history creates a clear benchmark: for over a century, Australian Jewish identity was synonymous with Australian civic identity. The community’s battles were against stereotypes and prejudice, not for the political objectives of a foreign state. The notion of a “Jewish society” in Australia is a historical falsehood; Australia is and has always been a pluralist, secular democracy.

Part II: The Fracturing Instrument – Zionism’s Rise and the Haavara Precedent

The rise of political Zionism in the 20th century created a new and potent ideology that sought to redefine Jewish identity in national-political terms. This movement often found itself at odds with established Jewish communities in the diaspora, including in Australia, where early Zionist overtures were reportedly dismissed by a government wary of disruptive foreign influence.

A critical and darkly revealing historical nexus is the 1933 Haavara Agreement between Nazi Germany and Zionist organisations. This pact allowed approximately 60,000 German Jews to transfer some assets to Palestine in exchange for boosting German exports. For the Nazis, it was a tool to forcibly emigrate Jews while breaking an international boycott. For some Zionist leaders, it was a pragmatic, if horrifying, means to build the Jewish population in Palestine.

The agreement was deeply controversial. Mainstream Jewish leaders like American Rabbi Stephen Wise opposed it, and right-wing Revisionist Zionist leader Ze’ev Jabotinsky denounced it vehemently. The pact illustrates a chilling precedent: the willingness of a nationalist political movement to engage in realpolitik with even the most abhorrent regimes when it served its demographic and state-building goals, treating individual Jewish lives as political currency. This instrumental approach foreshadowed later accusations of Zionist leaders showing contempt for Holocaust survivors, viewing them less as victims to be comforted than as demographic assets to be utilised.

Part III: The Geopolitical Playbook – From USS Liberty to Bondi Beach

The modern playbook for manipulating Western democracies was refined over decades. A foundational event was the 1967 Israeli attack on the USS Liberty, a U.S. Navy spy ship in international waters, which killed 34 American servicemen. Declassified documents and senior U.S. officials, from Secretary of State Dean Rusk to CIA Director Richard Helms, concluded the hour-long assault on a clearly marked ship in broad daylight was deliberate.

The subsequent cover-up was a masterclass in political coercion. Records show Israeli diplomats threatened to accuse President Lyndon Johnson of “blood libel” if he pressed the issue, while U.S. officials, fearing domestic political fallout, ordered the Navy to “hush this up”. The lesson was clear: a foreign nation could attack a sovereign ally with impunity by leveraging perceived political control over a minority voting bloc and the weaponised charge of antisemitism.

This template is now visible in Australia. Following the Bondi attack, the U.S. Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Antisemitism (a role with an explicitly American mandate) publicly blamed the Australian government for “inaction,” inserting himself as an authority on Australian internal security. The Australian government’s response was tellingly swift, pledging to adopt recommendations from its own Antisemitism Envoy, Jillian Segal. Critics note the government is simultaneously ignoring the report’s “unlawful” aspects while fast-tracking measures that curtail free speech—a reaction that stands in stark contrast to the glacial pace of action on homelessness or healthcare. The tragedy was leveraged to advance a pre-existing, contentious policy agenda, demonstrating how external pressure can create “political will” for a foreign-aligned objective where none exists for domestic suffering.

Part IV: The Conflation and the Crisis – Playing Both Sides Against the Middle

The final stage of the playbook is the deliberate conflation of three distinct entities: the Jewish faith, the Jewish people (especially in the diaspora), and the political State of Israel. Political Zionism’s success depends on merging these concepts, thereby framing any criticism of Israeli state policy as an attack on Jewish people globally, which is then branded as antisemitism.

This conflation is a betrayal of both the Australian Jewish community and the Australian public. It ignores the long tradition of Jewish voices in Australia and globally who are strident critics of Israeli policy and the ongoing violence in Gaza. It resurrects the very ideas of racial-national identity the world sought to bury after WWII. It forces a false choice upon Australian Jews: either express unwavering support for a foreign government’s actions or be accused of betraying your people.

The ultimate goal is to create a political monolith. By fostering suspicion and manufacturing crises – whether through the amplification of extremist attacks or the promotion of divisive legislation – the architects of this playbook aim to polarise societies, dismantle bipartisan foreign policy, and align democracies unquestioningly behind a single geopolitical vision. As recent statements from U.S. figures about creating a singular empire suggest, Australia’s sovereignty is not a principle to be respected but a variable to be managed.

Conclusion: Reclaiming Sovereignty and Sanity

Australia is indeed being played. Its Jewish community, with its deep and patriotic history, is being used as a wedge and a shield. Its political class is being manipulated into prioritising a foreign nation’s narrative over its own citizens’ welfare. The rapid, forceful response to the Segal report’s agenda, contrasted with the neglect of foundational domestic issues, is proof of a hijacked policy compass.

Breaking this hook requires intellectual and moral courage. It requires disentangling faith from nationalism, rejecting the conflation that is the playbook’s central weapon, and reaffirming that in a pluralist democracy like Australia, loyalty is to the nation and its people – not to a foreign flag. It requires remembering the legacy of Sir John Monash, who served Australia, not a foreign ideology. The task is to reclaim sovereignty from foreign manipulation and sanity from manufactured crisis, for the benefit of all Australians.

References……………………

December 25, 2025 Posted by | AUSTRALIA, politics international | Leave a comment

Trump orders return to Moon by 2028, lunar base with nuclear power by 2030.

NASA is directed to pursue a commercial pathway to replace the International Space Station by 2030, continuing the transition toward privately owned and operated orbital platforms. 

By Stephen Pope, December 19, 2025https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/trump-moon-2028-lunar-base-golden-dome

In a sweeping reset of US space policy, President Donald Trump on December 18, 2025, signed an executive order directing NASA to return astronauts to the Moon by 2028, establish the first elements of a permanent lunar base by 2030, deploy nuclear power systems on the Moon and in orbit, and accelerate development of the administration’s “Golden Dome” missile defense program. 

The order, titled Ensuring American Space Superiority, sets some of the most aggressive space and defense timelines ever laid out in a single White House directive, blending civil exploration, national security, and commercial space development into one policy framework. 

Under the order, NASA is instructed to land Americans on the Moon by 2028 through the Artemis program, and then move quickly toward establishing an initial, sustained lunar presence by the end of the decade. The administration frames the Moon not only as a destination, but as strategic infrastructure — a platform for economic activity, scientific research, and preparation for future missions to Mars. 

Lunar nuclear reactors

A central and notable element of the policy is nuclear power. The order calls for deploying nuclear reactors on the lunar surface and in orbit, with a lunar surface reactor required to be ready for launch by 2030. The White House argues that nuclear power is essential to sustaining long-duration operations on the Moon, where solar energy alone may not support continuous activity. 

The executive order also reiterates Trump’s push for the Golden Dome missile defense initiative, directing the government to develop and demonstrate prototype next-generation missile defense technologies by 2028. It also calls for improved detection and countermeasures against threats to US space assets, extending from low Earth orbit to the moon, including concerns over nuclear weapons placed in orbit.

The order places heavy emphasis on accelerating procurement and integrating commercial space capabilities. NASA and the Department of Commerce are directed to reform their space acquisition processes within 180 days, with a stated preference for commercial solutions, faster contracting methods, and reduced bureaucratic friction. The policy also seeks to attract at least $50 billion in additional private investment into US space markets by 2028.  

Compressed timelines

Commercial space involving many companies is positioned in Trump’s order as a replacement, not just a partner, for legacy government programs. NASA is directed to pursue a commercial pathway to replace the International Space Station by 2030, continuing the transition toward privately owned and operated orbital platforms. 

The order also makes structural changes to space governance. It revokes the National Space Council and shifts coordination of national space policy to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Several agencies are given near-term reporting deadlines, including a 90-day requirement for NASA to outline how it will meet the Moon and exploration goals within existing funding levels. 

In addition, the order revises prior space traffic management policy by removing language that had described government-provided tracking services as free, potentially opening the door to paid or commercially supported models in the future. 

Taken together, the executive order outlines an expansive vision with compressed timelines, placing pressure on NASA, the Pentagon, and industry to deliver rapid progress. 

December 25, 2025 Posted by | space travel, USA | 1 Comment

Hiroshima urges Japanese government to uphold non-nuclear principles

22-Dec-2025, https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-12-22/Hiroshima-urges-Japanese-government-to-uphold-non-nuclear-principles-1JjnitxS4ec/p.html

Japan’s Hiroshima Prefecture on Monday issued a statement urging the national government to uphold the country’s non-nuclear principles, after a security official recently suggested the country should possess nuclear weapons. 

The Hiroshima prefectural assembly unanimously adopted the written opinion, citing local concerns about reviewing the long-standing Three Non-Nuclear Principles, which prohibit possessing, producing or permitting the introduction of nuclear arms into Japanese territory, Kyodo News reported.

“It is our duty, as the only country to have suffered atomic bombings, to continue striving toward the realization of a world without nuclear weapons,” the statement said.

The statement comes after an official involved in devising security policy under the government led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently said that Japan should possess nuclear weapons, inciting backlash from locals, including atomic bomb survivors.

It is the first written opinion by the prefectural or city assemblies of Hiroshima or Nagasaki, both devastated by U.S. atomic bombs, regarding the country’s reconsideration of the non-nuclear principles, the report said.

Itsunori Onodera, head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s security research council, said on a TV program on Sunday that Japan needs to debate the future of its non-nuclear principles.

Last month, Japanese media quoted government sources as saying that, as the Takaichi administration gears up to revise the country’s key national security documents by the end of 2026, Takaichi was considering reviewing the third of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, which prohibits nuclear weapons from entering Japan’s territory, raising strong doubts and concerns at home.

December 25, 2025 Posted by | Japan, politics | Leave a comment

The EU’s top diplomat casually rewrites WWII history on her way to WWIII

Kaja Kallas’ striking ignorance – or willful revisionism – is precisely why no one is taking the bloc seriously anymore.

By Tarik Cyril Amar, a historian from Germany working at Koç University, Istanbul, on Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe, the history of World War II, the cultural Cold War, and the politics of memory 1 Dec, 2025, https://www.rt.com/news/628731-kaja-kallas-ww2-ww3/

Oops. Kaja Kallas, the de facto EU foreign minister already notorious for her chirpy incompetence, has done it again: displayed such elementary ignorance that you have to rub your eyes and double-check before you believe it’s true. But – as always with her – it is. This time, she has informed the world that Russia has not been attacked by anyone for a hundred years.

Those Nazi generals who planned Operation Barbarossa – the 1941 attack on the Soviet Union (and thus very much Russia) that left 27 million Soviet citizens dead – are probably spinning in their graves. Yes, blinded by prejudice and ideology (“values”) they badly underestimated the Russians (sounds familiar?) and lost (catastrophically). But having your whole 3-million-men-150-division operation wiped out Orwell-style?

And what about the many other Europeans who joined the Nazis, either from the beginning or later, with official contingents or as volunteers? The Romanians, Finns, Italians, Spanish, Croatians, Belgians, French, Norwegians, Slovaks, Bulgarians, Hungarians, and, last but not least, Balts, such as from Kallas’s native Estonia?

And let’s not even start about those prickly Japanese! They, too, got a drubbing at the 1939 Nomonhan/Khalkhin Gol clash (and yes, it took place on the edge of Mongolia, a Soviet client state), but, again, pretending they never even tried?

Being historically illiterate to such an extent seems almost pitiable. Where geometry has made former German Foreign Minister Annalena “360 degrees” Baerbock intellectually immortal, it is history where Kallas reaches peak benightedness.

That is especially disturbing because failing so badly, in particular in the history of last century’s great wars, makes Kallas a very dangerous person. The reason is as simple as 1,2,3: Together, the last two World Wars – both caused by Europeans – cost up to over 81 million lives. We know that a third one would be even worse, whether fought “only” with very advanced and destructive conventional weapons (including AI, of course) or, as is more likely, escalating to the use of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, biological, and cyber). A Third World War is likely to literally be our last, either forever or for the exceedingly long time it would take the survivors to make their way back from their caves to civilizations sophisticated enough to blow each other up again.

The Ukraine war – in reality, a Western proxy war against Russia and the emerging multipolar order, executed through misled, betrayed, sold-out, and now almost used-up Ukraine – has had the real potential to turn into World War Three. This risk has diminished with the second Trump administration, but it will only be gone once the war ends.

The NATO-EU Europeans, meanwhile, are doing their best to keep this war, its destruction, and its apocalyptic escalation potential going: they provide ever more weapons, cannot stop looking for sleazy ways to steal frozen Russian assets and fleece their own tax payers, urge for more Ukrainians to be thrown into the futile meatgrinder, and, last but not least, embolden the Zelensky regime to continue, no matter how much of its ubiquitous corruption is exposed.

The Atlanticists, i.e., deranged European “elites” that are staying this insane course, are hard to understand, since they do not follow reason, as their suicidal and yet persistent sanctions policy proves; their ethics are also utterly perverse, as their equally persistent complicity in Israel’s ongoing Gaza genocide illustrates.

Yet we can observe facets of their madness. One is that, clearly, to work so obstinately toward World War Three requires never having understood World War Two. That’s the one that ended with the first and only use in wartime of the kind of weapon that may well play a main role in a world-ending World War Three, too: When the US deliberately and entirely without military necessity massacred the populations of the two large Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it did not simply end a war by an enormous, shameful, and never acknowledged crime. It also opened the door to a future we all must pray will never arrive.

Regarding World War Two, EU de facto foreign minister Kallas, as so often, embodies NATO-EU European group-non-think as few others, revealing carelessly what slightly less ham-fisted operators still try to conceal.

Currently, she is doing her very worst to prevent peace from breaking out. While many leaders of NATO-EU Europe display what the Germans now call “Friedensangst” (the fear of peace), Kallas is second-to-none in her denial of reality, Russophobia, and, last but not least, bizarre over-estimation of the EU’s and her own personal influence. Demanding a place in negotiations the EU has deliberately stonewalled and calling for “concessions” from Russia as if the West and Ukraine were winning the war, Kallas has been publicly snubbed by the US.

Yet there is a method to her madness. Kallas’s inability to adequately process the present reflects her unusually pronounced inability to learn from the past. Only recently, speaking at a conference on security studies, she shared her dumb surprise at the fact that Russia and China believe they are among the victors of World War Two. Ironically, for Kallas, this is a dangerous “narrative,” clearly factually false in her eyes, and only successful with those who read little and don’t remember history all that well. She has felt many question marks in her head, she has informed us. If only she could grasp why.

In reality, both Russia and China played key roles in defeating the global fascist offensive that was at the core of World War Two. This is not the place for details – Kallas should feel strongly invited to finally read up on them (if she can) – but a few key facts will be enough: In Asia, World War Two started even earlier than in Europe, with Japanese aggression against China; the war also lasted longer.

Kallas is displaying a narrow-minded provincialism and a lousy education by reducing the struggle to that, as she put it, against the “Nazis.” That was the main story in Europe, but not in Asia, where the fight against Japanese fascism cost China an estimated 35 million lives. Kallas’s English is infamously rudimentary. She may want to try to improve it by making her way through, at least, historian Rana Mitter’s ‘Forgotten Ally: China’s World War II, 1937-1945’. I am not sure she has ever read a whole book. If not, this would be a good first time. If she has, a second one is clearly required. And, for once, not some neo-Noltean tract by American history mangler and Ukraine War booster Tim Snyder.

The Soviet Union, with Russia at its core, suffered 27 million deaths. And without its staggering sacrifice and equally stunning efforts, Nazi Germany would not have been defeated: the preponderant share of its military forces were destroyed by Soviet soldiers on what the Germans called the Eastern Front. If they had not been ground down there, only two outcomes would have been possible: a Nazi empire would have survived or the US would have dropped atomic bombs on Germany as well.

Germans especially, among whom hating as well as underestimating Russia is all too fashionable again, would do well to remember a simple, little understood fact: it is precisely the Soviet victory over Germany by conventional arms that spared them a continuation of Nazi rule (though many may, of course, have welcomed that) or the fate of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Kallas, in any case, is not one for learning. Clearly combining the worst of bigoted eastern European nationalism and Brussels’s simple-minded hubris, she can’t even sense when she has made a fool of herself. How do we know? Because when challenged, she made things worse again.

Kallas produced her display of incompetence and condescension on the occasion of China’s 80th victory celebrations. Unsurprisingly, its representatives have been clear. Beijing Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun condemned Kallas’s inanities as “full of ideological bias,” “without historical common sense,” displaying “disrespect,” and, last but not least, “harm[ing] the EU’s own interests.” The latter, of course, has never stopped Estonia’s most embarrassing export.

German EU parliamentarian Fabio de Masi, now co-leader of the New-Left BSW party, requested a clarification. In her response, Kallas managed to dig her hole even deeper: She claimed – untruthfully – that on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Asia, the EU paid tribute also to the courage of the people of China, who endured immense suffering in defending their homeland and contributing to the end of the war.” In reality, she – and therefore the EU – had just done exactly the opposite: insulted China by explicitly denying its contribution. Kallas’s official job title is, in case she cannot remember, “Vice-President of the Commission/High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.” She speaks and mis-speaks for the EU, even if that is a catastrophe that should never have happened.

Regarding Russia, Kallas did not even make the effort to pretend. Instead, she simply continued her silly attempt to deny its key contribution to defeating Nazism. Accusing Russia of manipulating history, she felt this was also the right occasion to also once again repeat the absurdity that the West did not provoke the war in Ukraine.

Clearly, Kallas’s latest sally is shocking but not a surprise. It fits perfectly with her personal record of blithely chattering about breaking up Russia. It also fits with a widespread mood among NATO-EU Europe’s “elites,” where disparaging Russia and Russians is as much de rigueur as a stupid romanticization of Ukraine, its far right, and nationalism. Where Kallas can hold high office, normality is anything but.

The real question is when this nightmare of ignorance, war hysteria, and arrogance will finally end in Europe. Because if it does not, Europeans will only have themselves – or, to be precise, their “elites” – to blame when most of the world will write them off not only as the people who helped Israel commit genocide in Gaza but also as simply very unserious: yesterday’s privileged, now economic lightweights led by political lightweights who are too lazy to notice how silly they look.

December 25, 2025 Posted by | EUROPE, secrets,lies and civil liberties | Leave a comment

Iran, UK foreign ministers discuss nuclear issue in phone call

Dec 20, 2025, https://www.iranintl.com/en/202512192167

ranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke by phone with UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper on Friday, saying Tehran is open to diplomacy based on respect.

“Iran has never rejected negotiations and dialogue based on respect for the Iranian nation’s legal rights and legitimate interests, but considers talks based on one-sided imposition unacceptable,” official media cited Araghchi as saying.

Araghchi criticized the “irresponsible” stance of the three European powers on Iran’s nuclear program, saying that Tehran is open to talks respecting its legal rights and legitimate interests but rejects unilateral imposition.

Cooper underlined Britain’s commitment to diplomacy on the nuclear dossier. No UK readout of the call has been issued.

The three European countries—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—triggered the Iran nuclear deal snapback mechanism in August, leading to the reimposition of UN sanctions in September.

Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reached a technical understanding in Cairo in September, mediated by Egypt, aimed at gradually restoring inspectors’ access to nuclear sites.

Following the return of UN sanctions on Iran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the United States and three European powers had “killed” the Cairo nuclear agreement through what he called a sequence of hostile actions.

Araghchi said last month that Washington’s approach amounted to “dictation, not negotiation,” accusing the US of trying to achieve through diplomacy what it failed to gain by force.

“They want us to accept zero enrichment and limits on our defense capabilities,” he said. “This is not negotiation.”

Trump said Iran could avoid past and by reaching a nuclear deal, adding that any attempt to revive its program without an agreement would prompt further US action. He has repeatedly said Iran missed an earlier chance to avert the strikes by accepting a deal.

December 25, 2025 Posted by | Iran, politics international, UK | Leave a comment

Trump Announces Nuclear-Armed Battleships for the U.S. Navy.

The ships, named after President Donald Trump as the Trump-class…….

23/12/2025, By Carter Johnston, https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/12/trump-announces-nuclear-armed-battleships-for-the-u-s-navy/

The U.S. Navy will take delivery of new-build battleships, the largest in modern existence, in an announcement from President Trump in Florida.

U.S. President Donald Trump, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of the Navy John Phelan, were all in attendance for the President’s announcement declaring a new class of battleships under the ‘Golden Fleet’ initiative, an effort designed to restore American shipbuilding. All four gave remarks during the announcement emphasizing the need for the new battleship class.

The ships, named after President Donald Trump as the Trump-class, will be 30-40,000 ton warships surpassing the largest surface combatants in service today, including the largest existing Russian Navy Kirov-class nuclear-powered battlecruiser. A rendering of the lead ship, the USS Defiant, features large SPY-6 radar arrays, lasers firing at targets out of view, and at least 100 VLS cells, all equipped on a historically large hull.

We’re desperately in need of ships, and I have approved a plan for the Navy to begin construction of two large battleships. We used to build the Iowa, the Missouri, the Alabama. These will be 100 times the force and power. Each one of these will be the largest battleships built in the history of our country.” U.S. President Donald Trump during the USS Defiant announcement

Trump-class Battleships / USS Defiant Design

Renderings show USS Defiant built with an integrated superstructure and several remote weapon systems, as well as an unidentified gun system similar in appearance to the Zumwalt-class 155mm Advanced Gun System (AGS). The gun appears to be a railgun, which President Trump confirmed would be equipped on the ships.

At least four Block III SEWIP electronic attack systems, all integrated into the superstructure, are visible, providing electronic attack and deception against incoming missiles. In higher resolution renderings provided to Naval News by the U.S. Navy, two 21-cell Rolling Airframe Missile launchers are visible amidships on the port and starboard side, with a VLS bank in the center barely visible.

The three vertical launch cell banks will be capable of firing a mix of standard Mark 41 VLS missiles, including Tomahawks and Standard Missiles shown in renderings, with a single larger bank farthest towards the bow capable of firing Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) hypersonic missiles currently being fitted to the Zumwalt-class ships at Huntington Ingalls Industries Pascagoula.

“The [design] started with me in my first term. These will be 100 times more powerful than any battleship ever built before.” U.S. President Donald Trump during the USS Defiant announcement

The renderings show two Mark 45 5-inch cannons towards the bow on the starboard and port side, with a large number of VLS cells behind the guns. Forward are larger VLS cells, similar to what is seen on the Zumwalt-class to fire CPS missiles. The cells could also be similar to Lockheed Martin’s Growth VLS (G-VLS), a larger size VLS cell for future growth and multi-pack potential for existing missiles.

Ahead of the larger diameter hypersonic VLS bank, which is shown launching a hypersonic missile, is an unidentified gun closely resembling a railgun. General Atomics recently pitched railguns for air and missile defense, highlighting design advancements that solve the previous barrel wear concerns. President Trump confirmed the ship will be armed with railguns during his statement.

President Trump also confirmed the ships will be armed with the Sea-Launched Cruise Missile – Nuclear (SLCM-N) nuclear-tipped cruise missile being developed for the fleet, adding a new element of the nuclear triad to the surface force.

President Trump and Secretary of the Navy Phelan declared the class as future flagships of the U.S. Navy serving as fleet command platforms for admirals.

December 25, 2025 Posted by | USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Japan set to restart world’s biggest nuclear power plant.

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa will be the latest plant to restart 15 years after the Fukushima disaster shut down the country’s nuclear energy programme.

Aljazeera, By Lyndal Rowlands and News Agencies, 22 Dec 25

Japan is set to resume operations at the world’s largest nuclear power plant: Kashiwazaki-Kariwa.

The partial restart of the plant got the green light in a vote on Monday by the Niigata local government. Japan has reopened several nuclear facilities as it seeks to reduce emissions, reversing policy 15 years after 54 reactors were shut in the wake of the Fukushima disaster despite public opposition.

Niigata prefecture’s assembly passed a vote of confidence on Governor Hideyo Hanazumi, who backed the restart last month, effectively allowing the plant to begin operations again.

The 2011 triple meltdown at Fukushima, following an earthquake and tsunami, destroyed Japan’s trust in its nuclear energy infrastructure…………..

Fourteen of the 33 nuclear plants that remain operable in the country have been resurrected. However, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa is the first to be operated by Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO), which ran the Fukushima plant.

TEPCO is considering reactivating the first of seven reactors at the plant on January 20, Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported……………………

While lawmakers voted in support of Hanazumi, the assembly session showed that the community remains divided over the restart, despite the promise of new jobs and potentially lower electricity bills.

About 300 protesters rallied to oppose the vote, holding banners reading “No Nukes”, “We oppose the restart of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa” and “Support Fukushima”.

Farmer and antinuclear activist Ayako Oga, 52, joined the protests on Monday in her new home of Niigata, where she settled after fleeing the area around the Fukushima plant in 2011 with 160,000 other evacuees. Her old home was within the 20km (12-mile) radius irradiated exclusion zone.

“We know firsthand the risk of a nuclear accident and cannot dismiss it,” said Oga, adding that she still struggles with post-traumatic stress disorder-like symptoms……………………………… https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/22/japan-set-to-restart-worlds-biggest-nuclear-power-plant

December 25, 2025 Posted by | Japan, politics | Leave a comment

2025 in nuclear-related news

To be honest, the really big news for the planet, is the super-fast melting ice in the Arctic and Antarctica,  but politicians and media don’t seem interested.

On the nuclear-related news, it’s not all gloomy.   The heroism of Ahmed al Ahmed was widely recognised. There are tens of millions of people, especially in the USA, who are getting together to oppose nuclear weapons and nuclear war.

So much news is nuclear-related. The year began and ended with Israeli anger. Here in Australia, in December, that was justified, with the horror of the Bondi massacre of Jewish people celebrating Hanukkah. But it’s  gone beyond anger, and has become uncannily like the 2023 referendum  on the Aboriginal Voice to Parliament – with relentless, illogical,  coverage on the theme of blaming Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.(The 2023 referendum was won by the negative, by blanketing the airwaves with one illogical cry “If you don’t know, vote No”.) 

15 murders – a terrible thing, – also terrible -over 70,000 killed in Gaza

And why is it nuclear-related? Because Israel’s ruthless Zionist government has nuclear weapons, and Netanyahu would be prepared to use them, (if he can’t get America to do it for him).

Also nuclear-related, the endless dilemma of Ukraine, the pretense that Ukraine is winning, the carnage mounting, as Ursula von der Leyen and co. flail around, trying to get all of Western Europe to come up with billions of Euros to buy American weaponry  for Ukraine (- Raytheon etc laughing all the way to the bank). War-mongering Europeans seem prepared to send drone/missile attacks deep inside Russia, despite the very real risk of nuclear retaliation from Russia.

Then there’s the chance of  the “President of Peace” starting a war with Venezuela, or Iran, or Greenland, or anywhere else where he could commandeer oil, or other resources. Things could so easily go nuclear.

The  arms race continues apace, even on the moon.

The propaganda for nuclear power roars on in the media, though just about everybody knows that it’s unaffordable, and small nuclear reactors exist pretty much only as optimistic designs.  It’s tacitly recognised that the only genuine purpose for new nuclear power is to sustain the nuclear weapons industry.  Renewable energy is known to be the cheapest  energy form.

And of course – looming over it all, has been the promise and the threat of AI.

Those were the general themes for 2025.  For the details on the past week – go to https://nuclear-news.net/2025/12/23/the-past-week-in-nuclear-related-news/


May you have happy holidays!

December 24, 2025 Posted by | Christina's notes | Leave a comment

Israeli Cabinet Approves 19 New Apartheid Colonies in Occupied West Bank.

“The ONLY reason Israel gets away with this naked thievery is US military and political support,” said one observer.

Brett Wilkins, Dec 21, 2025, https://www.commondreams.org/news/israel-19-new-settlements

Israel’s Cabinet on Sunday finalized approval of 19 new Jewish-only settler colonies in the illegally occupied West Bank, a move the apartheid state’s far-right finance minister said was aimed at thwarting Palestinian statehood.

Cabinet ministers approved the legalization of the previously unauthorized settler outposts throughout the occupied Palestinian territory, bringing the total number of new settlements in recent years to 69.

The move will bring the overall total number of exclusively or overwhelmingly Jewish settlements—which are illegal under international law—to more than 200, up from around 140 just three years ago.

Included in the new approval are two former settlements—Kadim and Ganim—that were evacuated in compliance with the now effectively repealed 2005 Disengagement Law, under which Israel dismantled all of its colonies in the Gaza Strip and four in the West Bank.

“This is righting a historic injustice of expulsion from 20 years ago,” Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich—who is a settler—said on Sunday. “We are putting the brakes on the rise of a Palestinian terror state.”

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.commondreams.org%2Fnews%2Fisrael-19-new-settlements&contentHash=011b8355aca7bffdd37d78f94dff44500ab42691300418c3045ac08e7aa9cde1&unitId=2900021701&userId=9ecf08c4-2db5-4b31-af88-f7a403e65998&isLegacyBrowser=false&version=20251222_c7e5d887284f05640a3b79f68a1ee07063cf4fe1&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=478&isMobile=0&unitType=tts-player&integrationType=web

Israel’s Cabinet on Sunday finalized approval of 19 new Jewish-only settler colonies in the illegally occupied West Bank, a move the apartheid state’s far-right finance minister said was aimed at thwarting Palestinian statehood.

Cabinet ministers approved the legalization of the previously unauthorized settler outposts throughout the occupied Palestinian territory, bringing the total number of new settlements in recent years to 69.

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The move will bring the overall total number of exclusively or overwhelmingly Jewish settlements—which are illegal under international law—to more than 200, up from around 140 just three years ago.

Included in the new approval are two former settlements—Kadim and Ganim—that were evacuated in compliance with the now effectively repealed 2005 Disengagement Law, under which Israel dismantled all of its colonies in the Gaza Strip and four in the West Bank.

“This is righting a historic injustice of expulsion from 20 years ago,” Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich—who is a settler—said on Sunday. “We are putting the brakes on the rise of a Palestinian terror state.”

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“We will continue to develop, build, and settle the inherited land of our ancestors, with faith in the righteousness of our path,” Smotrich added.

Following an earlier round of approval for the new settlements last week, Palestinian presidential spokesperson Nabil Abu Rudeineh said, “All Israeli settlement activity is illegal and constitutes a violation of international law and international legitimacy resolutions.”

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres earlier this month denounced Israel’s “relentless” settlement expansion.

Such colonization, said Guterres, “continues to fuel tensions, impede access by Palestinians to their land, and threaten the viability of a fully independent, democratic, contiguous, and sovereign Palestinian state.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials—some of whom, including Smotrich, deny the very existence of the Palestinian people—have vowed that such a state will not be established.

While Netanyahu—who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza—is under pressure from right-wing and far-right government officials, settlers, and others to annex all of the West Bank, US President Donald Trump recently said that “Israel would lose all of its support from the United States if that happened.”

Some doubted Trump’s threat, with Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN) executive director Sarah Leah Whitson reacting to the new settlements’ approval by posting on X that “the ONLY reason Israel gets away with this naked thievery is US military and political support.”

Israel seized and occupied the West Bank including East Jerusalem along with Gaza in 1967, ethnically cleansing around 300,000 Palestinians. Many of these forcibly displaced people were survivors of the Nakba, the Jewish terror and ethnic cleansing campaign that saw more than 750,000 Palestinians flee or be forced from Palestine during the foundation of the modern state of Israel.

Since 1967, Israel has steadily seized more and more Palestinian land in the West Bank while building and expanding colonies there. Settlement population has increased exponentially from around 1,500 colonists in 1970 to roughly 140,000 at the time of the Oslo Accords in 1993—under which Israel agreed to halt new settlement activity—to around 770,000 today.

Settlers often attack Palestinians and their property, including in deadly pogroms, in order to terrorize them into leaving so their land can be stolen. Israeli colonists have also attacked Israel Defense Forces soldiers they view as standing in the way of their expansion.

In July 2024, the International Court of Justice—where Israel is currently facing a genocide case related to the Gaza war—found the occupation of Palestine to be an illegal form of apartheid that must be ended as soon as possible. The ICJ also ruled that Israeli settler colonization of the West Bank amounts to annexation, also a crime under international law. Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention states that an “occupying power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies.”

As the world’s attention focused on Gaza during the past two years, Israeli soldiers and settlers have killed at least 1,039 Palestinians—at least 225 of them children—in the West Bank. This year, at least 233 Palestinians, including at least 52 children, have been killed so far, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East.

On Saturday, Israeli occupation forces shot and killed two Palestinians in the northern West Bank, including a 16-year-old boy, Rayan Abu Muallah, who the Israel Defense Forces said was shot after he threw an object at its troops.

December 24, 2025 Posted by | Israel, politics | Leave a comment

Earth’s frozen regions are sending a clear warning about climate change – but politicians are ignoring it.

The Conversation,  December 18, 2025, https://theconversation.com/earths-frozen-regions-are-sending-a-clear-warning-about-climate-change-but-politicians-are-ignoring-it-270604

  1. Chris StokesProfessor in the Department of Geography, Durham University
  2. Florence ColleoniSenior Researcher, Polar Geophysics, National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (OGS)
  3. James KirkhamPostdoctoral Researcher, Antarctic Geography, British Antarctic Survey

“We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice.” That’s the message from more than 50 leading scientists who study the Earth’s frozen regions, published in the latest annual State of the Cryosphere report.

In the past year alone, the vast polar ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are likely to have shed around 370 billion tonnes of ice, with a further 270 billion tonnes from the 270,000 mountain glaciers around the world, some of which are disappearing altogether.

In February 2025, global sea ice extent reached a new all-time minimum in the 47-year satellite record. Elsewhere, perennially frozen ground (called permafrost) continues to thaw, releasing additional greenhouse gas emissions each year that are roughly equivalent to the world’s eighth-highest-emitting country.

The warning lights from the cryosphere have been flashing red for several years, and governments ignore this at their peril.

Melting ice is driving an acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, which has doubled to 4.5mm per year over the last three decades. If this acceleration continues, sea-level rise will reach around 1cm per year by the end of this century – a rate so high that many island and coastal communities will be forced to move.

The loss of mountain glaciers will affect billions of people who rely on their meltwater for agriculture, hydropower and other human activities; and the damage caused to infrastructure by Arctic permafrost thaw has been estimated to cost US$182 billion (£137 billion) by 2050 under our current emissions trajectory.

Negotiations based on ‘best available’ science

In an effort to reduce the risks and effects of climate change, including those from the cryosphere described above, the Paris climate agreement was adopted by 195 countries at the annual UN climate summit in 2015, with the aim of limiting “the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”.

Its implementation should be based on and guided by the “best available science”. That includes evidence provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group created by the UN to provide governments with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.

This guiding principle was strengthened by the International Court of Justice in July 2025, which reaffirmed 1.5°C as the primary legally binding target for climate policies under the Paris climate agreement.

Yet recent climate negotiations, including at the UN climate summit in Brazil in November 2025 (Cop30), have seen some countries – largely fossil fuel producers – push back on previously standard language endorsing the IPCC as a source of the “best available science”.

As cryosphere scientists who regularly attend the UN’s climate summits, we have noticed recent efforts to downplay, confuse and dilute some of the latest scientific findings, especially from the cryosphere. We find this alarming.

At Cop30, observations about the complete loss of glaciers in two countries (Slovenia and Venezuela) were removed from the final draft text. Other shocking scientific findings about “irreversible changes to the cryosphere” were diluted to a rather vague “need to enhance observations and address gaps in the monitoring of the hydrosphere and the cryosphere”.

This tactic to obfuscate the science is not new, but has been increasingly used over recent years, during which the indicators of climate change and its consequences on the cryosphere have become increasingly obvious to scientists.

At Cop30, climate negotiators from several countries expressed disappointment and concern that the role of the IPCC as the best available science was not highlighted alongside some of the more alarming scientific findings, with an intervention from the UK capturing this frustration.

While the final overarching summary text from Cop30 – the Mutirão decision – references the IPCC as the source of the best available science, and contains some strong language around the need to limit warming to 1.5°C, rather than 2°C, these look like empty words when the same document fails to even mention “fossil fuels”. Emissions from fossil fuels will result in 2.6°C of warming by 2100, without urgent action.

Indeed, the final text from Cop30 is the first to explicitly reference a temperature “overshoot”, reiterating the need “to limit both the magnitude and the duration of any temperature overshoot”. Most scientists agree that overshoot is now inevitable, but that 1.5°C increase remains the legal and ethical imperative for a long-term global temperature target.

However, some scientists – including ourselves – would argue that even this is too high, committing us to losing around half of the world’s mountain glaciers and several metres of sea-level rise from the polar ice sheets.

Among the dire warnings, a recent study offers hope that it is still possible to curtail warming in the next 15 to 20 years, peaking at an increase of around 1.7°C in the 2040s before declining to an increase of 1.5°C and then 1.2°C by the end of the century. But that requires rapid and deep cuts in emissions from now on.

Climate negotiations may move at a glacial pace, but the irony is that the pace of glacier change is rapidly overtaking our ability to adapt to it and protect the most vulnerable people. The science is clear. But the perils of ignoring it are even clearer.

December 24, 2025 Posted by | climate change | Leave a comment