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The Reality of SMR Timelines for AI Data Centers: A Veteran’s View

Nov 2,2025, By Tony Grayson, Tech Executive (ex-SVP Oracle, AWS, Meta) & Former Nuclear Submarine Commander

If you’ve been following the recent nuclear boom, you’ve seen the headlines: Amazon commits to 5 GW. Google signs for advanced reactors. Oracle announces gigawatt-scale campuses. The message is clear: nuclear is the solution.

There is just one problem: GPUs move in 3-year cycles. Reactors move in decades.

I spent my early career commanding nuclear submarines, where “downtime” wasn’t a metric; it was a mission failure. Later, I built data center infrastructure for Oracle, AWS, and Meta. I know the difference between a PowerPoint slide and a commissioned plant. I know what it takes to cool a reactor core versus a Blackwell rack……..

Below is the reality check on SMR timelines for AI data centers, HALEU fuel shortages, and what infrastructure buyers should actually do.

SMR Timelines for AI Data Centers: The Executive Summary

To optimize for decision-making, we must look at the specific delivery windows. Here is the realistic availability for nuclear power sources.

• Near-Term (2025–2029): Reactor Restarts
  • Status: Feasible but limited.
  • Timeline: 3–5 years.
  • Examples: Palisades (Michigan) or Three Mile Island Unit 1.
  • Constraint: These require existing sites in good condition with willing local stakeholders.
• Medium-Term (2030–2035): Gen III+ Large Reactors
  • Status: Proven technology, difficult execution.
  • Timeline: 10–14 years.
  • Constraint: The Vogtle Units 3 & 4 (AP1000) proved that even “off-the-shelf” designs can take a decade and cost $30B+.
• Long-Term (2035–2045): Advanced SMRs (Gen IV)
  • Status: Experimental supply chain.
  • Timeline: Factory scaling likely post-2035.
  • Constraint: HALEU fuel availability and lack of factory fabrication lines.

If your strategy relies on SMR timelines for AI data centers intersecting with your 2028 capacity needs, you are missing the target.

The HALEU Fuel Gap: The Supply Chain That Doesn’t Exist

The biggest risk to the “Advanced Nuclear” narrative is not the reactor; it is the fuel.

Many Gen IV designs (like TerraPower’s Natrium) require HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium).

• The Demand: The DOE projects we need >40 metric tons by 2030.
• The Supply: Current U.S. capacity is negligible (less than 1 ton/year).
• The Problem: Prior to 2022, Russia was the primary commercial supplier.

Until domestic enrichment scales, a process that involves centrifuges, licensing, and billions in CAPEX…Gen IV SMRs have no fuel……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. https://www.tonygraysonvet.com/post/nuclear-power-for-ai-datacenters

December 27, 2025 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Small Modular Nuclear Reactors