ZELENSKY: CAUGHT BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

AEARNUR Nov 22, 2025 https://aearnur.substack.com/p/zelensky-caught-between-a-rock-and?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=312403&post_id=179640825&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=ln98x&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

This war could have been avoided. A diplomatic pathway to peace existed in 2015 and in 2022. If the West had done what was right and needful on both occasions things would have been very different.

Russia has prevailed against the collective might of the West. Those who still retain their illusions and self-blinding prejudices concerning this are now totally irrelevant and unable to influence events now occurring. This includes the entire political elite of Europe apart from those in Hungary, Slovakia and since the recent presidential election, the Czech Republic.

We now stand before events which could herald the end of a conflict Russia never wanted. The last three and three quarter years of bloody warfare became inevitable following a catastrophic failure by the western political elites. The Russian president and his team walked every last mile and for six long years to achieve a diplomatic solution to the situation in Ukraine’s eastern regions following the West-supported insurrection and coup in Ukraine. The ultraviolent insurrection removed the democratically-elected president and government with full U.S., EU and UK support in 2014. Following the outbreak of hostilities when the new coup government irresponsibly and recklessly sent the Ukrainian army to quell unrest in the Russian-speaking east of Ukraine a diplomatic initiative between Russia and Ukraine began. This also included the then leaders of Germany and France. This process, which came to be known as ‘The Minsk Accords’ began in 2015.

The Minsk Accords began due to things going badly wrong for the Ukrainian army in Ukraine’s south-eastern region of the Donbass. They were begun after a plea by Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany at the time, to Vladimir Putin. These accords were meant to find a diplomatic solution to the question of the Russian-speaking population retaining their right to retain their language and democratic rights in the face of the removal of the president and government they had elected being illegally removed from office. The population of the Donbass saw gaining a semi-autonomous status as the way to achieve this and this is the outcome Putin sought to achieve for them.

The process to find a peaceful way through to a good outcome for both sides through diplomacy stretched on through th next six years to 2021 without success. The coup government in Kiev through its parliament refused to implement the steps that would have ensured a peaceful outcome. Instead of being willing to agree the way forward to the peaceful outcome visualized in Minsk they actively sought a military outcome favorable to them. Back in Minsk and throughout this period western leaders constantly attempted to put pressure on Russia and exerted virtually none on the Ukrainian regime in Kiev. This failure to put pressure on Kiev was the crucial missing ingredient that brought about the ultimate failure of the Minsk process by 2021. The two Kiev regimes since 2015 having felt no significant pressure from its western allies to implement Minsk finally abandoned it completely by late 2021. This set the stage for war

The Ukrainian army and the fortifications built to contain and attack the Russian-speaking populations of the Donbass which lay siege to the Donbass region had been built up and equipped massively by the West from 2014 to 2021. And in the first months of 2022 the number of attacks on the Russian-speaking population by the Ukrainian army rose significantly. It was clear that a major military push by the Ukrainian army against the population there was imminent. All this and all that came thereafter from February 24th 2022 could have been prevented if the West had been willing to put pressure on presidents Poroshenko and subsequently Zelensky, to agree the diplomatic solution which arose from the negotiations in Minsk. All the years of horrendous bloodshed could have been avoided. The western leaders could have applied massive pressure on Kiev but failed to apply any discernible pressure at all

Only now, after these years where over a million have died and countless numbers have experienced grievous injuries do we at last see significant pressure being applied to the Ukrainian regime. The new, 28-point Trump peace plan has been supplied to Zelensky and he has been told in no uncertain terms that he must agree to it or lose U.S. support. He has until November 27th to do this.

The big question is this: Why did we wait all the way from 2015 to now for the western powers to apply pressure on Kiev to settle?

The political leadership of the West concentrated solely applying pressure on Russia during the entire time from 2015 to now. If pressure had been applied to the degree possible and necessary by the West on the Ukrainian authorities they would have had to agree to the diplomatic peace initiatives, first in Minsk and if not then, in Istanbul. In Minsk the western leaders utterly failed in their duty to pressure BOTH sides, choosing to put pressure on Russia alone. In Istanbul we saw Boris Johnson, UK prime minister of the time, arrive in Kiev to urge Zelensky to abandon the road to peace and instead to instead choose war.

It has been the western leaders and their failure to apply this pressure where it would have been most effective that has precipitated the start and continuance of the fighting. It i the western leadership of this period and their anti-Russian strategies that are primarily responsible for this conflict and all the deaths and injuries that have occurred since 2015.

Now, as Russia achieves ever greater success on the battlefield, with the Kiev regime locked within a huge corruption scandal and its military forces in dissaray, lacking manpower, suffering massive desertions and in retreat, with western financial support to Ukraine failing, now at last pressure is being put where it should have been all along, on the Kiev regime and on Zelensky in particular. He must no decide by November 27th whether to sign up to the 28-point peace plan or lose the U.S. as ally. At long last pressure is being applied where needed as it ought to have been done all the way back in Minsk in 2015 and once again in Istanbul in 2022. Zelensky must now put up or shut up. Agree to a peace where Russia achieves th preponderance of its goals or reject that peace, fight on, and lose even MORE lives and land in the future.

Aearnur

Nov 22, 2025