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Kaliningrad Gambit: NATO’s Last Desperate Bluff /Spark for World War III?

Jeffrey Silverman,  New Eastern Outlook, August 08, 2025

With Ukraine’s defences collapsing and Russia gaining the upper hand, NATO’s provocative focus on Kaliningrad risks triggering a nuclear escalation that could end any remaining prospects for diplomacy.

As many foresaw, the situation for Ukraine’s Western-backed proxy regime is unraveling fast. Russian forces are pushing forward with increasing momentum — Chasov Yar has reportedly fallen, and Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka facing operational encirclement. The Eastern Front may soon collapse entirely.

Kiev appears outgunned and undermanned, the result of Russia’s grinding attritional strategy — high firepower, low casualties — not the reckless assault tactics portrayed in Western media.

In response, Washington is shifting gears — talking nuclear subs and floating threats against Kaliningrad, Russia’s fortified Baltic enclave, a move that may only harden Moscow’s resolve — and shift the conflict into a far more dangerous phase.

Russian military production has far outstripped that of the entire combined West by a factor of roughly four to one. Getting beyond lame Western rhetoric, the Russian Federation is producing weapons that actually work, unlike their NATO rivals, at a price far less than the West is capable of matching. Needless to say, the West claims plans are in progress to “close the gap in 2025” but they have been saying that since 2022, with no result in sight.

Sayings with punch!

They say tactics win battles, but logistics wins wars. The Russians took that to heart — favoring firepower and endurance over flashy maneuvers. The West, still chasing its blitzkrieg fantasies, missed the memo.

With Ukraine’s proxy army buckling, NATO faces a sobering question: what now?

Sanctions fizzled. The so-called “global consensus” crumbled as China, India, and Brazil shrugged off Washington’s threats and kept buying Russian energy. Trump’s bluster over secondary sanctions rings hollow — especially after Beijing humbled him in the last rare earth standoff.

Meanwhile, the West’s wunderwaffen parade — HIMARS, Javelins, Patriots, Leopards, F-16s — may have dazzled in brochures, but has done little to shift the battlefield calculus. Ukraine bleeds, Russia raises battle flags over liberated towns and cities, and NATO grows increasingly desperate.

And now, with few cards left to play, NATO’s gaze turns ominously to Kaliningrad — the heavily armed Russian exclave boxed in by Poland and the Baltics. A target? A bargaining chip? Or the next red line in a war spiraling out of control?

NATO Doctrine

General Christopher Donahue, commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, unveiled the new NATO doctrinefor Eastern Flank Defence at the inaugural LandEuro conference on Wednesday 30^th July, by talking about NATO plans to attack Kaliningrad in the event of open conflict with Russia.

Speaking specifically about Kaliningrad, Donahue said modern allied capabilities could “take that down from the ground” faster than ever before:

“We’ve already planned that and we’ve already developed it. The mass and momentum problem that Russia poses to us…we’ve developed the capability to make sure that we can stop that mass and momentum problem.”

Sounds a bit too optimistic to me!

Apparently, NATO planners have learned little from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, even less from the debacle in Afghanistan and Iraq, where offensives into built up areas require long preparation in terms of artillery and missile strikes. Modern satellite and drone observation makes it practically impossible to build up sufficient forces unobserved for “coup-de-main” surprise attacks of the type the western military still dream of, and the sheer level of destruction that modern weapons systems can unleash, such as the TOS-1, and FAB-3000 glide bombs, various cruise and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, and conventionally armed Oreshnik IRBMs can unleash makes concentration of troops an extremely risky business.

Quite how NATO intends to square this circle is anyone’s guess, as the statements by Donahue are, to put it mildly, light on details………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Method in Madness

What Western planners often ignore — or conveniently forget — is that Ukraine’s internal policies toward its Russian-speaking population were a major trigger for the conflict. Now, with the battlefield turning in Russia’s favor, NATO appears to be scrambling for leverage……………………………………………………….

 Using Kaliningrad to poke the bear is just the spark that could set into motion the end of times, whether it is a military incursion, blockade, or a full-fledged attack, and this would be the end of diplomacy and humanity as we knew it.

The US and its NATO partners should never underestimate Russian resolve, as the portrayal of Russia as a defeated, overextended, or crumbling power is a story of another time and reality. Times have changed, and the world has changed, with new realities between East and West. https://journal-neo.su/2025/08/08/kaliningrad-gambit-natos-last-desperate-bluff-spark-for-world-war-iii/

August 13, 2025 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war