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Israel Buckles as Iran War Shifts to New Drag-Out Phase

Simplicius, Jun 21, 2025

Today a round of urgent talks concluded in Geneva between European-American representatives and Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi. The talks reportedly went nowhere as Iran rejected calls to end all enrichment, and instead rebutted that Iran will not negotiate with anyone until all attacks by Israel first cease.

Araghchi will next try Moscow, where he heads on Monday.

But this development is remarkable for a number of reasons:

First, the arrant hypocrisy demonstrated by the Western-bloc position that Iran must first negotiate and only then will hostilities be brought to an end. Wait a second, wasn’t it that in Ukraine the “appropriate” sequence of events, according to this ‘rules based odour’, is that first hostilities must immediately cease, and only then negotiations should begin?

As you can see, the West twists the chain of logic in whichever way serves its interests at the particular time. In Ukraine’s case, Ukraine is badly losing and so the West seeks to immediately save their ward by sermonizing Russia about how it’s only “right” that hostilities must end first. In Iran’s case, it’s the opposite: the West is quite keen to allow Israel its illegal and unprovoked campaign of violence against Iran.

No consistency, no principles, as always.

But the other remarkable thing is that Araghchi’s bold rejection seems to imply that Iran is not particularly desperate for an end to the hostilities, which can only indicate that its leadership views their chances in the escalating attritional war positively, contrary to Western propaganda that Iran is ‘on the ropes’. Of course, we can’t let that guide our analysis entirely—every country utilizes their own flavor of bluffs and deimatic behavior as defense mechanism.

We must admit that Israel has begun racking up some serious damage against Iran since the last report. The latest compilation released by the IDF shows quite a few new Iranian radar sites hit by what is likely to be Delilah missiles:

Furthermore, Oryx’s team has apparently now engaged themselves in this conflict, and claim nearly ~80 verified hits on Iranian ballistic missile launchers thus far.

It brings us to the brief discussion of numbers. Sources claim Iran has anywhere from 3,000 to 28,000 total ballistic missiles, and produces roughly ~300 new ones per month, which is a relatively plausible number given what we know of Russia’s own production figures. 28,000 is likely exaggerated, and the lower end of the scale is a more realistic bet; no country really has stockpiles that large.

For argument’s sake, let’s say Iran had closer to 3,000, though it could be a bit more than that. Some sources claim Iran has already launched 1,500 of them, and thus could have gone through a significant portion of its stockpiles. However, more precise graphs like the following [on original] seem to point to only about ~500 total having been launched thus far:

Recall that according to Western intel Iran produces up to ~300 per month. This could also point to why Iran has cut down to launching only a dozen or so per day, as 10 per day multiplied by 30 days is precisely 300—this would allow Iran to essentially break even and launch just enough to continue the pace indefinitely without further depleting stockpiles.

But on top of that, Israel’s ability to repel the strikes has been degraded as well, as per their own sources: -[on oroginal]………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Israeli ex-prime minister Ehud Barak seems in agreement that it is not possible to take out Iran’s nuclear program by force:

‘It’s impossible to dismantle a nuclear program’ warns former Israeli PM Ehud Barak

He says ‘the US has never won a war’ citing Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan

Barak urges Washington to negotiate and reconcile with Tehran

……………………………………………………..It’s clear Trump’s foreign policy has been hijacked by the Mossad, and he’s now dangerously sidelining the only people capable of providing him the real unadulterated truth about the ongoing situation…………………………………………….https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/israel-buckles-as-iran-war-shifts?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=166407110&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=rq5yc&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

June 23, 2025 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Uncategorized