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SPECIAL BULLETIN: Israel Launches Major Strikes on Iran

Simplicius, Jun 13, 2025

The Israeli rogue state added another of its neighbors to the long list of regional nations it is currently bombing. From Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, international waters, and now Iran—Israel now bombs them all with impunity while crying out about its own ‘security’.

The attacks are reportedly just the first stage of a long wave of aggression that will span days or weeks according to announcements from top officials:

NETANYAHU: WE ARE AT A DECISIVE MOMENT IN ISRAEL’S HISTORY NETANYAHU: ATTACKING IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM, BALLISTIC MISSILES *NETANYAHU: STRIKES WILL LAST UNTIL THREAT REMOVED

A statement from IDF Spokesperson BG Effie Defrin on the preemptive Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear targets

Hebrew sources: Air force attacks on Iran are divided into three main missions:

The nuclear project
Destruction of missile launch platforms
Elimination of senior regime officials

Israeli news:

Israeli Channel 14 citing an Israeli official: “We have a long and broad offensive plan for the days ahead – complex days lie ahead. The Iranians will respond, if the public is disciplined, there will be few casualties. We are at war.“

Reportedly, the White House stated earlier that the US would not be involved in any unilateral Israeli actions, and as soon as the strikes began Rubio made sure to distance the US in an official statement:

Netanyahu again invoked the Iranian nuclear weapons red herring used so many times before, it has now turned into a parodic litany, recorded below [on original]

………………………….. It .. does not surprise me that Israeli officials are now characterizing the beginning of this war as a critical juncture in the history of Israel. Netanyahu called it the ‘decisive moment in Israeli history’ while Defense Minister Israel Katz reportedly announced:

Defense Minister Israel Katz to the IDF General Staff before the attack on Iran: This is a defining moment in the history of the State of Israel and the Jewish people.

Israel duly is at a crossroads, which I have described before: the country is in a downward spiral and has only one remaining chance to seize history to secure its survival. Why? The reasons are almost too long to list in this one brief article alone, but they include demographics, as well as the decline of Zionism and rise of “noticing” in the West which means in a generation or two, support for Israel may dwindle to the point where it will be engulfed by regional enemies.

The other major reason: nascent technologies have created parity between Israel and its foes, where groups like Hamas and Hezbollah can use cheap but highly technologically effective weapons to deal accurate, disabling damage to Israel’s most critical and sensitive infrastructure. The same goes for Iran: the country has come of age and mastered rocketry and newfangled drone warfare to the point where the numbers simply do not work in Israel’s favor in any future war.

Israel once had the backing of the world’s most dominant ‘superpower’ alliance of Western nations, now the tides of history have simply shifted against Israel’s favor.

Now there are reports Iran may “declare war” on Israel. I remain skeptical for the following reason: Iran has no true overriding capability to fully ‘submit’ Israel into a state of debellatio. Israel has the nukes, and presumably, Iran as of yet does not. No amount of conventional missiles could make Israel simply surrender, and as such a declaration of war has no real meaning. Neither do the two countries share a border so it’s not like Iranian troops can somehow flood Israel to capture its capital.

Any overwhelming attack that could critically wound Israel may provoke an Israeli nuclear response—further proving Iran does not have the escalatory advantage or trump card. That is like Ukraine “declaring war” on Russia—what possible meaning would that have? Ukraine does not have the escalatory dominance to ever ‘submit’ Russia in any way, and the only objective of true ‘war’ is just that—total victory and the subjugation of the adversary. Thus, I see no logical way war can be declared, unless Iran did finally secretly hatch that bomb and is ready to use it. The only other possibility is for PR reasons to satisfy the demands of the angry populace, before declaring victory after some arbitrary objectives have been carried out via a series of strikes, and calling it a day.

For the record, here was Supreme Leader Khamenei’s reported address:

“At dawn today, the Zionist regime extended its vile and blood-stained hand to commit a crime in our beloved country, further exposing its wicked nature by targeting residential areas. The regime must now await severe punishment. The powerful hand of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic will not let them go unpunished, God willing. In the enemy’s attacks, a number of commanders and scientists were martyred. Their successors and colleagues will immediately carry on their duties, God willing. With this crime, the Zionist regime has prepared a bitter and painful fate for itself—and it will certainly receive it.”

Because many will and have already asked, one last note: the first wave of Israeli attacks obviously had some observable and verifiable success, particularly with the decapitations of top leadership already confirmed by official Iranian agencies. Strikes on nuclear processing infrastructure will take longer to validate. This raises questions of Iran’s preparedness—how could top leaders be so unprepared whilst knowing that Israel was ready to stage major attacks any day now?

That is certainly a valid criticism. But when it comes to Iran’s vaunted air defenses, which will doubtlessly face criticism, all I can say is that recent wars of the modern-technological age have shown no country on earth is capable of fully defending against modern weapons like ballistic missiles. How many of Iran’s or the Houthi’s missiles had Israel shot down in previous strikes? Nearly none, if I recall correctly. How often have the US Patriots famously failed to down anything, including over US bases where Iranian strikes gave hundreds of US troops “brain damage”, and how often do Ukrainian drones and missiles bypass Russian defenses? No one has an impervious defense, though judging by recent strikes on Moscow, the closest any country in the world has come to that distinction is Russia.

And for the record, tonight we see reports of Israeli ALBM booster stages “spread out through various Iraqi provinces” which again appears to prove Israel launched its ordnance well clear of Iranian airspace, likely the Air LORA missiles as in the previous strikes:

Though there were various ‘rumors’ of jets flying over Tehran but it appears in every case to have been Iranian jets scrambled at the time of strikes not only to avoid being hit on airfields but possibly for air defense missions as well.

Lastly, many expected Iran to have already prepared an instantaneous response: the immediate launch of hundreds of missiles upon Israel’s very first salvo. The reality is that Iran has never functioned this way: it waits and assesses the situation before carefully curating a large-scale operation like the long-awaited True Promise 3.0. Why is that the case? One oft-cited and rationally sound explanation is the following: [on original]

Logic would dictate if they had chosen the latter option, they would have already prepared an instantaneous volley to hit Israel at its point of lowest readiness. Waiting days to respond telegraphs your actions and gives the enemy time to prepare, which logically implies a ‘show’ strike. But nothing is for certain in this game of war, so we’ll have to wait and see. https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/special-bulletin-israel-launches?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=165832167&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=c9zhh&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

June 15, 2025 Posted by Christina Macpherson | global warming, Iran, Israel | Leave a comment