Amory Lovins: Artificial Intelligence Meets Natural Stupidity: Managing the Risks.
Future electricity needs for artificial intelligence (AI) are
wildly uncertain—shaped by unproven concepts, disputed performance,
limited trust, volatile markets, unpredictable adoption, and technical
efficiency that quadruples roughly each year.
Yet a speculative surge is driving massive investment in data centers and new electricity supplies, risking a 12-figure overbuild. Avoiding an electricity bubble requires
clear-eyed analysis, disciplined planning, and using markets to allocate
risks fairly to potential beneficiaries.
A cautionary history: In 1999, the US coal industry claimed that information technology would need half thenation’s electricity by 2020, so a strong economy required far more
coal-fired power stations. Such claims were spectacularly wrong but widely
believed, even by top officials. Hundreds of unneeded power plants were
built, hurting investors. Despite that costly lesson, similar dynamics are
now unfolding again.
Integrative Design for Radical Energy Efficiency Learning Hub 16th May
2025
https://integrative-design-for-radical-energy-efficiency.stanford.edu/amory-lovins
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