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Trump can’t denuclearize North Korea. South Korea’s next leader should pursue risk reduction instead

Bulletin, By Daeyeon Lee | February 14, 2025

In November 2016, a real estate mogul named Donald Trump defied expectations and won election as the 45th US president. The following month, South Korea’s legislature passed a bill to impeach conservative President Park Geun-hye over a corruption scandal involving her top aide.

History repeats itself: In November 2024, Trump won a second presidential term. About a month later, South Korean lawmakers voted to impeach conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol over a short-lived martial law declaration.

Reactions to Trump’s return were polarized in the United States. Among foreign countries, Seoul’s response was noteworthy. Like other US allies, citizens in South Korea worry about Trump’s remarks calling their country a “money machine” and vowing to make South Korea accept a ninefold increase in defense cost-sharing. On the other hand, South Korean liberals anticipate a renewed dialogue between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which could reduce security tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Most interestingly, pro-Seoul nuclear armament advocates believe that Trump’s return will increase the chances of South Korea acquiring its own nuclear weapons. They cite a 2016 Trump interview and a more recent interview with Elbridge Colby, who served in Trump’s first administration and is set to serve again in his second term, as evidence of Washington’s openness to allowing Seoul to possess nuclear arsenals as a defense against Pyongyang.

Amid political turmoil in Seoul, proponents of a South Korean nuclear arsenal are unlikely to see their hopes fulfilled during Trump’s presidency, in my opinion. Trump’s transactional approach and his willingness to reengage with Kim Jong Un are likely to instead increase Seoul’s financial burden. Furthermore, Yoon, who is now incarcerated, is likely to be replaced by a progressive leader who is a strong opponent of nuclear armament.

Seoul’s financial burden. Regarding Trump’s transactional approach, he has economic and strategic disincentives to letting Seoul arm itself with nuclear weapons. If Seoul were to do so, its citizens might start to view the expenses for maintaining US Forces Korea—currently agreed to be more than $1.1 billion a year—as unnecessary. They could demand a reduction in US forces or even total withdrawal. Then Seoul would be no longer a “money machine.” Strategically, if the size of the US forces were to shrink, that would weaken US deterrence capabilities against China…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

What Seoul should do instead of pursuing nuclear ambitions. Significant geopolitical change is expected in the region. Along with Trump’s willingness to meet with Kim Jong Un, Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba openly discussed the establishment of a liaison office in Pyongyang and a summit with Kim after he was elected last October. To avoid being sidelined, Seoul should start to discuss how to restore diplomatic relations with Pyongyang.

Seoul can suggest two adjustments to its approach toward Pyongyang. First, Seoul should propose shifting the direction of Seoul-Washington-Tokyo security cooperation from enhancing deterrence to reducing tensions with Pyongyang. Second, Seoul should propose the restoration of the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement, the first implemented arms control agreement between the two Koreas, as a means of reassuring Pyongyang.

With a court ruling on President Yoon’s impeachment trial expected in either late February or early March, risk reduction measures should be discussed within South Korean society and among Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo as soon as possible—before the new administration commences its term 60 days after the court decision.  https://thebulletin.org/2025/02/trump-cant-denuclearize-north-korea-south-koreas-next-leader-should-pursue-risk-reduction-instead/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=A%20new%20Iran%20nuclear%20deal%3F&utm_campaign=20250217%20Monday%20Newsletter

February 21, 2025 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | politics international