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Is it realistic for Donald Trump to boast of a quick peace deal for Ukraine ?

AIMN Editorial, https://theaimn.net/is-it-realistic-for-donald-trump-to-boast-of-a-quick-peace-deal-for-ukraine/ 2 Jan 25

Donald Trump has made so many promises on what he will quickly achieve once he takes office as President. The one about ending the Ukraine war in 24 hours probably gained him support from quite a few normally left-leaning people, who understand that the history of this conflict is far more complicated than is portrayed by the Western media.

However, Trump made that statement in July 2023. By 2025, he has somewhat moderated that particular promise. He has had several conversations with Ukraine’s President Zelensky, . Zelensky praised their Paris meeting on 7 December as “productive and meaningful”, but there were no details discussed. Later, Trump opposed the sending of long-range missiles for Ukraine , but said he would not “abandon” Ukraine. He predicted “less aid” to Ukraine https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-R7Gi-uLiY. BY 21st December,  it was reported that Trump would continue to supply military aid to Ukraine, provided that NATO members dramatically increase their defence spending.

So, peace in Ukraine is not going to happen in such a hurry, even with President Trump and his supposed great negotiating skills. Britain considers sending troops to Ukraine to train Ukrainian regiments. NATO is not prepared for any compromises, especially about giving up the plan for Ukraine’s NATO membership. With any peace deal, the Western allies agree with Zelensky – “Security guarantees without the US are not sufficient for Ukraine.”

As well as European reluctance to a peace deal, there is the Russian point of view. Despite many set-backs, and a catastrophic loss of soldiers’ lives, Russia is now headed towards winning this war. Why make a deal now, before being in a more powerful position for demanding concessions?

Then we come to the USA. However much Donald Trump might want to end the carnage, and be seen as the peace hero, he is up against significant forces at home – making up what he calls the Deep State. This is a conspiracy theory that helped Trump to gain popularity – and I hate to agree with it, in its rather paranoid theme. BUT, war enthusiasts do exist – among the, military, intelligence, government officials, and wealthy industrialists, and they do exercise influence, and pressure politicians of both parties, to manipulate America’s defense policies. The war in Ukraine continues to be profitable to America’s weapons industries, and at no cost to American lives.

In the whole saga of the war in Ukraine, history has been forgotten. Of course Ukrainian-Russian relations have been tortuous and often terrible. In modern history it goes back to the 1930s, with Stalin’s starvation and genocide of Ukrainians. Then, following oppression from Russia, came in 1941, the short-lived moment of “liberation” by the German Nazis. That brought mass killings of Jews, slave labour, wholesale destruction, and the loss of up to 7 million lives. Russian control over Ukraine returned in 1944, and while the economy was restored, Stalin’s totalitarian rule was back again. In 1991 Ukraine gained independence from Russia.

Is it any wonder that Ukraine, with both Russian and Ukrainian languages still in common use, has been divided in attitudes and loyalties? Going even further back in history, Catherine the Great of Russia, in the 18th Century, made Kiev become Europe’s centre of art and culture, as well as making improvements in health, education, legal rights for Jews, improved conditions for serfs. Sure, she was an absolute monarch, – miles away from being democratic. Now her name and her statues are trashed in Kiev, which is a pity.

From 2014 to 2022, the Ukrainian government waged a war against the separatists in the Eastern, Donbass region. The war was about the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements which meant that the Donbass should have its autonomous government within Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky was elected on a platform that he would implement those agreements, but later he reneged on this promise. Russia’s President Putin in 2022 started what he called “a special military exercise” to support the separatists and uphold the Minsk agreement. That turned into the full-scale war against Ukraine.

European and USA support for Ukraine developed into a campaign, at enormous cost, to weaken Russia. The phrase “too big to fail” is used to describe financial crises. But it could apply to the Russia-Ukraine war. From the Western perspective the war is seen as a battle between good and evil – the evil giant Putin against the heroic little Zelensky. With NATO, with most European countries lined up against Russia, it is world democracy to be desperately defended, For Russia, it now is to prevent that last big nation on its border joining that threatening USA-armed line-up.

It was a mistake that Russia started a ‘special military enterprise’ -to evolve into a full-scale war. Some argue that by encouraging Zelensky to reneg on the Minsk agreement, the Western nations provoked the war.

Whatever started the war, the majority of Ukrainians, and especially those in the East, now just want it to end. The prevailing cry of Western leaders – “Putin must fail, Ukraine must prevail” expresses that simplistic view of good versus evil, and just ignores the complicated historic and local concerns of Eastern Ukraine. Diplomacy is jettisoned. As one writer puts it – voices calling for pragmatism and peace remain drowned out by the cacophony of war rhetoric.

Ultimately , every war ends in some sort of a diplomatic outcome. It is doubtful that Trump can make this one end quickly. It might be just one of the promises that he has to give up.

January 2, 2025 Posted by | politics, Ukraine, USA | Leave a comment

EU officials will claim ignorance of Israel’s war crimes. A leaked document shows what they knew.

Arthur Neslen, The Intercept, Mon, 23 Dec 2024

The internal EU document may strip European foreign ministers of “plausible deniability” in Israeli war crimes in Gaza, experts said.

European Union foreign ministers rebuffed a call to end arms sales to Israel last month, despite mounting evidence of war crimes — and, potentially, genocide — presented to them in an internal assessment obtained by The Intercept.

The contents of the previously unknown 35-page assessment could sway future war crimes trials of EU politicians for complicity in Israel’s assault against Gaza, according to lawyers, experts, and political leaders.

The appraisal was written by the EU’s special representative for human rights Olof Skoog and sent to EU ministers ahead of acouncil meetingonNovember 18, as part of a proposal by the head of the EU’s foreign policy to suspend political dialogue with Israel. The proposal was rejected by the council of foreign ministers from EU member states.

Skoog’s analysis laid out evidence from United Nations sources of war crimes by Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah since October 7, 2023, when around 1,200 people were killed during a Hamas-led attack that prompted Israel’s assault on the Gaza Strip. The U.N. estimates some 45,000 people have died in Gaza since, with more than half estimated to be women and children.

Though the assessment did not spare Hamas and Hezbollah, much of its strongest language was reserved for the Israel Defense Forces.

“War has rules,” the paper says. “

Given the high level of civilian casualties and human suffering, allegations focus mainly on how duty bearers, including the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF), have seemingly failed to distinguish between civilians and combatants and to take all feasible precautions to protect civilians and civilian objects against the effects of the attacks, in violation of the fundamental principles of IHL” — international humanitarian law……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

In the wake of the assessment, some EU politicians will be at risk of complicity if Israel is found to have committed war crimes, said Tayab Ali, a partner in the U.K. law firm Bindmans, which recently took the British government to court over its arms exports to Israel.

“Lawyers across Europe are watching this closely and likely to initiate domestic and international accountability mechanisms. Economic interests are not a defence to complicity in war crimes,” Ali told The Intercept. “It is astounding that, following the contents of this report, countries like France and Germany might even remotely consider raising issues of immunity to protect wanted war criminals like Netahyahu and Gallant” — referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

Diana Buttu, a former legal adviser and negotiator for the Palestinian Authority suggested that the rejection of the EU’s own analysis by its member states was political.

“Legally, we know where the dominoes should be falling,” Buttu said. “It was a question of whether the politics would match with the law, and unfortunately, they did not.”…………………………………………………………………………………………….

Skoog’s assessment says international law allows Israel “the right and indeed the duty to protect its population,” but that this can only be exercised in response to an armed attack or imminent attack and must be proportional. Because it is an occupying power, the assessment says, Israel also had an obligation to ensure safety and the health of those living under occupation.

Agnès Bertrand-Sanz, an Oxfam humanitarian expert, said the assessment “reinforces the case that EU governments have been acting in complicity with Israel’s crimes in Gaza.”

“Even when their own services presented them with the facts, they refused to act,” she said. “Those that continued exporting arms to Israel in defiance of the report’s clear advice, are involved in a blatant case of criminal collusion.” m https://www.sott.net/article/496948-EU-officials-will-claim-ignorance-of-Israels-war-crimes-A-leaked-document-shows-what-they-knew

January 2, 2025 Posted by | EUROPE, Israel, secrets,lies and civil liberties | 1 Comment

PETITION : Scrutinise Sizewell C

Petition to David Goldstone, Independent Chair of the Treasury’s new ‘Office of Value for Money’  https://action.stopsizewellc.org/valueformoney

We, the undersigned, urge you, as the new Office of Value for Money’s independent Chair*, to call in the Sizewell C project for urgent scrutiny, as it is currently proceeding by stealth.  Over £5 billion of public money has already been allocated to the project, and there is the potential for billions more to be spent without any guarantee of a Final Investment Decision being made:

  • Sizewell C received £2.5 billion from the previous government. In the Autumn Budget 2024, a further £2.7 billion was allocated prior to a Final Investment Decision (half the value of a £5.5 billion subsidy scheme created in August 2024).
  • Therefore £5.2 billion of public money has already been allocated to progress work on site – and up to £8 bn is at risk – without any guarantees that private investors will take a stake in the project, or indeed that a Final Investment Decision will be made.
  • There is no transparency at all about the overall cost of the project.
  • In addition to the drain on taxpayers’ funds, there are serious implications for consumers; the intended use of the Regulated Asset Base (RAB) funding model means households will pay a Sizewell tax on their electricity bills throughout construction, for many years before any electricity is generated.
  • There is still uncertainty regarding major issues that affect Sizewell C’s viability and costs. For example Sizewell C still hasn’t secured a guaranteed sustainable potable water supply for its planned 60 years of operation, nor is there a final design of the sea defences needed to keep the site safe for its full 150 year lifetime. 

 The Labour government announced soon after the election that an ‘Office of Value for Money’ would be created within His Majesty’s Treasury, to scrutinise areas of public spending. Initial feedback from the Treasury indicated that Sizewell C would definitely be examined, but more recent correspondence with officials has rowed back from such a firm position. David Goldstone was announced as the independent Chair of the Office of Value for Money by Chancellor Rachel Reeves during her Budget on 30 October 2024.

January 2, 2025 Posted by | Events | Leave a comment

Government urged to review Sizewell C nuclear plant over ballooning cost

Ecotricity founder Dale Vince, a Labour donor, has called for an urgent cost review of the Sizewell C nuclear power station and Net Zero Teesside carbon capture project.

By Jessica Mills Davies,  Energy Voice, 30/12/2024,

Ecotricity founder Dale Vince has demanded a formal review of the Sizewell C nuclear power station, and a new carbon capture project, over concerns costs have “ballooned” by tens of billions of pounds.

He has written to David Goldstone, the chair of the Treasury’s new Office for Value for Money (OVfM), asking him to examine plans to develop a new nuclear power project in Suffolk that he warned “will saddle consumers with higher bills long before it delivers a single unit of electricity”.

“Due to a novel funding method (RAB) a lengthy construction timeline for Sizewell will saddle consumers with higher bills long before it delivers a single unit of electricity at a time when there is clear evidence that we can secure a cleaner, cheaper energy future without nuclear,” said the renewable energy entrepreneur, who has donated money to the Labour Party………………………………………………………………………………… https://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/564942/government-urged-to-review-sizewell-c-nuclear-plant-over-ballooning-cost/

January 2, 2025 Posted by | business and costs, UK | Leave a comment

Some Types of Pollution Are More Equal than Others

There is a BIG taboo around Radioactive Pollution. We published a report last June into acid mine pollution alongside radioactive pollution in Whitehaven Harbour – so far ignored by mainstream media.

Marianne Birkby, Oct 20, 2024,  https://radiationfreelakeland.substack.com/p/some-types-of-pollution-are-more?fbclid=IwY2xjawHh0f1leHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHUnO_Vn81d2vI8K3TJv2FDpKMvMeozmDbga7z5mLwKNgZSE_7FT9wPa0pA_aem_5S_Vz4KQ2AgvtszsvnQJeQ

Whitehaven Mine Pollution

The Westmorland Gazette and other local press have today published a feel good article about beach cleans in Cumbria. So far so good but the beaches contain far more insidious and long lived pollution than plastic, in the form of radioactive wastes from decades of Sellafield’s operations.

In Whitehaven Harbour these radioactive wastes are literally magnified by the presence of the ongoing acid mine pollution pouring into the harbour. Instead of addressing this ongoing pollution event the local MP Josh MacAlister is greenwashing the ongoing devastation by bigging up Whitehaven as the West Coast Riviera and fizzingly pushing for a ferry service while boats are understandably leaving because of the visible acid mine pollution.

Less visible is the “historic” radioactive pollution still pouring out of Sellafield with more radioactive waste arriving almost daily.

………………………………….Dear Marine Conservation Society,

Thank you for highlighting pollution threats to our oceans.

We are a nuclear safety volunteer group in Cumbria increasingly worried about radioactive pollution alongside acid mine polllution flowing into Whitehaven harbour.

Our own investigations have found the highly radioactive isotope AM241 confirmed by a laboratory in the US at levels above 37 bq/kg.  This is alongside the acid mine pollution with the presence of heavy metals which magnifies the impacts of radioactivity.  Sellafield is funding a multi-million pound water sports centre encouraging people into the contaminated silt at Whitehaven and effectively greenwashing the ongoing pollution event.

Attached is our report and the report from Eberline Laboratory.  The regulators and nuclear industry are brushing this pollution aside but clearly there is an ongoing issue that no-one is addressing.

What is the MSC position on this?  

Marianne, Radiation Free Lakeland

January 2, 2025 Posted by | environment, UK | Leave a comment

Examining Annie Jacobsen’s Nuclear War: A Scenario.

Aileen Mejia explores the power of grassroots action, the flaws of nuclear deterrence, and the vital role of local movements in Scotland in shaping a world free from nuclear weapons

secure scotland, Dec 31, 2024

 Annie Jacobsen’s chilling, well researched book
Nuclear War: A Scenario explores what a nuclear strike on the United States
may entail. By presenting a hypothetical, yet deeply plausible series of
events, Jacobsen explores the fragility of global security and the
devastating consequences of failing to prioritize de-escalation and
disarmament.

The book highlights issues that are extremely pertinent to the
grassroots groups in Scotland that relentlessly advocate for nuclear
disarmament and the application of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear
Weapons, including Secure Scotland and the Scottish Campaign for Nuclear
Disarmament (SCND), which are part of the International Campaign to Abolish
Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). https://substack.com/home/post/p-153802524

January 2, 2025 Posted by | media, UK | Leave a comment

Improved way to gauge radiation doses developed for Fukushima

Asahi Shimbun, By KEITARO FUKUCHI/ Staff Writer, December 31, 2024 

[Ed. they studied only 30 people]

The Japan Atomic Energy Agency said it has developed a more accurate method to estimate radiation exposure doses among people who spend time around the stricken Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant.

The JAEA has adapted the method, based on daily life patterns, into program format and is offering it for free on a municipal government website and elsewhere.

When the central government designated evacuation zones following the 2011 triple meltdown at the plant operated by Tokyo Electric Power Co., it estimated radiation doses among residents using a simple evaluation method that assumed they spent eight hours outdoors and 16 hours indoors a day.

That method allowed for quick estimation, but it tended to overestimate the doses.

Other existing evaluation methods also have shortcomings, including a failure to reflect the actual environment.

The JAEA began developing the new method in 2017.

JAEA researchers drew on data compiled by the Nuclear Regulation Authority to calculate average air dose rates for 100-meter-by-100-meter areas.

They also took into account where and for how long the residents and workers frequented near the plant, and how they moved between different locations, such as on foot or by car, the officials said.

They asked around 30 people working in former and current evacuation zones to carry personal dosimeters and then compared the measurements and estimates for their exposure doses in 106 patterns………………………………………………………………..  https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15553626?fbclid=IwY2xjawHh0Y9leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHRIRfUukVbNPX60rGOQi_qUp5oMiYFThXBvPZN4h0XJiPQ_xn8trGYEIkA_aem_GwPtrY24MPxB4L0v2u8SuA

January 2, 2025 Posted by | Japan, radiation | Leave a comment