South Bruce Municipality narrowly votes to host underground nuclear waste disposal site
Matthew McClearn, October 28, 2024, Globe and Mail,
Residents in Ontario’s Municipality of South Bruce narrowly voted in favor of hosting a nuclear waste disposal site in a referendum completed on Monday.
Unofficial results published Monday evening by Simply Voting, an online voting platform, reported that of the 3,130 votes case, 51.2% voted in favor, while 48.8% were opposed.
The Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), a non-profit organization representing major nuclear power generation utilities, has been hunting since 2010 for a site to store spent fuel from nuclear power reactors. Known as a deep geological repository, or DGR, the facility would be built more than half a kilometer underground, at an estimated cost of $26 billion.
South Bruce, located more than 120 kilometres north of London and home to about 6,200 residents, is a rural, largely agricultural area of less than 500 square kilometers. It includes a few small communities including Mildmay, Formosa, Culross and Teeswater. The NWMO has secured more than 1,500 acres of land north of Teeswater for the project.
From the outset, the NWMO said it would build the facility only “in an area with informed and willing hosts,” which meant one municipality and one Indigenous group. South Bruce is one of two finalists to host the DGR, down from an original list of 22 communities that expressed interest. The NWMO said it will announce its final selection by Dec. 31st.
Under a hosting agreement the municipality signed earlier this year, South Bruce stands to receive $418-million over nearly a century and a half if selected. The municipality agreed not to do anything to oppose or halt the project, and at the NWMO’s request will communicate its support. The NWMO can modify the project in several respects, including changing the sorts of waste it will store there. The facility would be constructed between 2036 and 2042, ns would then receive, process and store nuclear waste for another half-century.
South Bruce’s byelection, which began last week, asked residents to vote by phone or Internet on whether they were in favor of hosting the DGR. Simply Voting reported turnout of 69.3%, substantially above the 50% minimum required to make the outcome binding under Ontario’s Municipal Elections Act.
The other community in the running is Ignace, Ont., a town of 1,200 more than 200 kilometres northwest of Thunder Bay. Its council voted to accept the DGR in July, and would receive $170-million under its own hosting agreement. (The move was supported by 77% of registered voters who participated in a non-binding online poll.) That location, known as the Revell site, is about 40 km west of the town.
The NWMO also seeks approval from two Indigenous communities: The Saugeen Ojibway Nation for the South Bruce site, and the Wabigoon Lake Ojibway Nation for the Revell site. Neither First Nation has yet signaled consent, but the NWMO spokesperson Craig MacBride said the organization is “in active discussions” with both.
“The NWMO still anticipates selecting a site by the end of this year,” he wrote in an e-mailed response to questions.
As of June 2023, Canada had accumulated 3.3 million spent fuel bundles, each the size of a fire log. They’re currently stored at nuclear power plants in Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick, and roughly 90,000 new ones are added each year. Upon removal from a reactor, they’re highly radioactive and must be stored in pools of water for about a decade; afterward, they’re moved to storage containers made from reinforced concrete and lined with half-inch steel plate.
The South Bruce referendum follows a campaign that lasted a dozen years and produced rifts within the community.
Protect Our Waterways, a local group opposed to the DGR from the outset, had demanded a referendum. Some DGR supporters opposed putting the matter to a public vote, preferring to leave the decision to elected officials. Municipal officials pointed to the area’s declining economy and population, and emphasized the benefits brought by the NWMO’s spending. Supporters and opponents often accused each other of producing misinformation………………………………………………………….. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-south-bruce-municipality-narrowly-votes-to-host-underground-nuclear/#:~:text=Its%20council%20voted%20to%20accept,km%20west%20of%20the%20town.
Lepreau nuclear headaches could add up to an extra $150M
NB Power says it won’t know the true costs until plant comes back online in December after an eight-month shutdown
John Chilibeck • Local Journalism Initiative reporter, Oct 28, 2024 Journal: https://tj.news/new-brunswick/lepreau-headaches-could-add-up-to-an-extra-150m
NB Power expects the troubled Point Lepreau nuclear plant to be back up and running in December, about 140 days after serious problems were first discovered.
The repairs and replacing the lost electricity could cost New Brunswick ratepayers $150 million, based on testimony provided earlier this year by senior executives at the public utility.
In a news release Monday, NB Power said the total costs won’t be known until the plant near Saint John is back in operation. The utility is also considering making an insurance claim to protect the public and businesses from punishing costs.
“Our team has been working diligently, with the support of national and international experts, to assess and address the situation,” stated spokesperson Dominique Couture in the release. “This has been a very complex task, and NB Power left no stone unturned in understanding the problem and the repair options.”
During a summer rate hearing before the New Brunswick Energy and Utilities Board, Craig Church, a chief modeler for the public utility, told the quasi-judicial body that replacing the 660 megawatts of energy lost at the Candu reactor, one of the most important plants in its generating system, costs on average $900,000 a day.
The repair work and replacement power did not figure into rate hearings in which NB Power asked for the highest hikes to electrical rates in generations – close to 20 per cent over two years. A decision is still pending with the board.
During those summer hearings, NB Power estimated the repair work would cost $20 million and replacing energy $51 million, for a total of $71 million.
But that was an estimate only up to Sept. 1, roughly 48 days of the unplanned outage. Extending that timeline to Dec. 1 would add another 91 days, just when temperatures plunge and electrical costs go up.
The $900,000 a day estimate was an average only, suggesting the costs could escalate to at least $150 million.
The Point Lepreau Nuclear Generating Station has been offline since April 6, when NB Power undertook a planned, 100-day maintenance outage.
But when getting ready for starting the plant back up in July, workers identified a critical issue within the main generator, located on the non-nuclear side of the plant.
It turns out it wasn’t even in an area that was part of the maintenance work.
The culprit was a damaged stator bar in the generator, one of the long devices inside the big round machine and a stationary part of the rotor.
The experts began probing further and after testing all 144 bars, found five others showing signs of serious deterioration.
“An independent investigation has determined that the cause of this issue is a manufacturer’s defect that occurred during the maintenance of the generator in 2010,” NB Power stated. “We made the decision to repair all six bars while the station is offline to ensure continued safe operations and prevent potential issues in the future.”
It wasn’t a simple job. To access the stator bars, workers had to meticulously disassemble part of the generator assembly, including the removal of the machine’s rotor.
“The stator bars and other internal components are delicate and strict manufacturer’s precautionary measures must be followed,” Couture wrote. “We are pleased to report that repairs have been completed on all six stator bars and that the generator reassembly is underway. This involves several verification steps and thorough testing to ensure that all components are precisely aligned and secured.”
NB Power said once the components are ready, in the coming weeks, it will begin start-up activities at the massive plant, including equipment checks and testing protocol. The utility anticipates a full return to service in December. That would mean the unplanned outaged lasted about 140 days, with Lepreau offline for a total of about eight months.
The true costs won’t be released until the plant is back in service, NB Power stated. Couture said the utility is examining every option to reduce costs for its customers, including looking at an insurance claim.
“We are pleased that the station will be back online for the winter heating season to ensure New Brunswickers have the energy they need when they need it,” Couture wrote. “We are committed to safety and operational excellence and will continue to keep the public informed.”
New Brunswick’s nuclear plant’s ongoing troubles an early threat to Holt government finances
N.B. Power’s Point Lepreau generating station has been offline since April with no definite return date
Robert Jones · CBC News · Oct 28, 2024
More than 200 days after going offline for what was supposed to be a 98-day maintenance shutdown the Point Lepreau nuclear generating station remains idle with no definite word on when it will be able to generate electricity again.
In an email last week the utility declined to commit to a previously estimated mid-November restart date and will say only that it has a “goal” of completing repairs on the station’s troubled generator sometime in November.
However, reconnecting to New Brunswick’s electrical grid following repairs will take an uncertain amount of additional time, according to N.B. Power spokesperson Dominique Couture.
“The next steps will be to proceed with start-up activities including Station equipment checks and testing protocol,” Couture said in an email to CBC News about what happens when repairs are complete.
“The timeline for full return to service will be determined by how these activities progress.”
That is a potential problem for the incoming government of Susan Holt, whose Liberal Party won the New Brunswick election a week ago.
Cost climbing daily
Bills for the latest troubles afflicting the nuclear plant passed $100 million in late September and are climbing at a rate of $1 million a day or more with some uncertainty over who will pay.
An upcoming decision of the New Brunswick Energy and Utilities Board will rule on a number of matters concerning N.B. Power and the rates it charges, including whether Lepreau breakdown costs should continue to be paid by N.B. Power customers or be shifted to the utility and its owner — the provincial government.
Hearings conducted by the EUB into those matters ended nine weeks ago, but no decision has been released to date.
“There are many, many issues and the board will do its very best to endeavour to have a decision as quickly as we can, but that obviously will take some time,” the EUB’s Christopher Stewart noted at the conclusion of final arguments in the rate hearing on Aug. 26.
More complex than expected
The latest problems at Lepreau began after it was taken offline April 6 for what was supposed to be a 98-day maintenance shutdown.
After sitting idle for three months during that period, the plant’s 700-megawatt generator, which had not been among the components worked on during the outage, showed a problem during routine testing done on all plant equipment prior to being restarted………………………………………………………………………….
N.B. Power now says it is not sure when the plant will be operational.
Colder weather will increase energy replacement costs
In the summer, the utility told the EUB that delaying Lepreau’s return to service by seven weeks, from mid-July to Sept. 1, would add an estimated $71 million in unbudgeted costs to the original 98-day maintenance outage.
That included an expected $20 million in unbudgeted repairs to the generator and $51 million in costs to pay for replacement energy while Lepreau remained offline. Adding another 11 weeks or more to that downtime, some of that during colder fall weather when replacement energy costs begin to rise, will more than double those amounts.
It is a serious financial setback for N.B. Power.
Ratepayer frustrations
Major customers of N.B. Power have been expressing increasing levels of alarm about the nuclear plant’s poor performance and frustration that they are having to pay for its shortcomings…………………………………………………..
unlike storm damage, or rising fuel prices that are outside N.B. Power’s control, failings at the nuclear plant can mostly be traced to poor maintenance, poor management and poor decision-making.
They argued N.B. Power and the provincial government should be forced to absorb the financial costs of Lepreau’s troubles on their own and asked the EUB to make that happen in its ruling…………………………………. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/lepeau-nuclear-offline-generator-repairs-maintenance-cost-rates-holt-government-1.7363968
Oxfam reaction to Knesset decision
October 29, 2024, by: The AIM Network, https://theaimn.com/oxfam-reaction-to-knesset-decision/—
Oxfam Australia
In reaction to the Knesset passing bills banning UNRWA from operating in areas under Israel’s control, Sally Abi Khalil, Oxfam Regional Director in the Middle East and North Africa said:
“Israel has bombed Palestinians to death, maimed them, starved them, and is now ridding them of their biggest lifeline of aid. Piece by piece, Israel is systemically dismantling Gaza as a land that is autonomous and liveable for Palestinians. Its banning of UNRWA today is condemnable and another step in this crime.
“The decision will further undermine the ability of the international community to provide sufficient humanitarian aid and to save lives in any safe, independent and impartial way.
“UNRWA was not only the biggest and most established agency that has been delivering aid and sustenance to the people of Gaza for years, it was also a thread that connected them in some hope of solidarity and security to the United Nations.
“We are in no doubt that Israel and its allies are fully aware of the terrible consequences that this decision will have on Palestinians living in Gaza, many of whom are already starving. We join others in warning again that this will result in more death, more suffering, and more forced displacement of people from their besieged homeland. It is impossible not to believe that this is their aim.”
Biden to Bibi: ‘OK to continue Gaza genocide till after election’

Walt Zlotow, West Suburban Peace Coaliton, Glen Ellyn IL, 27 Oct 24
On October 14, President Biden sent a letter to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving Israel 30 days to allow more aid of food, water and medicine into Gaza’s 139 square miles being utterly destroyed by Israel for the past year. It’s noteworthy that the 30 day time limit ends 9 days after the US election. Biden’s letter is brilliant politics and grotesque governance. Biden, who has been funding, supporting and enabling the yearlong genocide in Gaza, desperately needs to appear peace loving ahead of the election. He knows a majority of his Democratic voters are horrified by his genocide enabling. They want him to end the so far 50,000 tons of weapons he’s already given Israel to demolish Gaza.
The letter, designed to promote his concern for the devastation he’s enabled, will do nothing to end the genocide in Gaza. Netanyahu has ignored every one of Biden’s pleas for supplying life sustaining aid there. The letter doesn’t even state Biden will cut off aid to Israel. It merely implies that if US demands aren’t met, the US might consider enforcing foreign assistance laws. Those laws forbid the US from sending weapons to any nation committing wholesale destruction of civilian populations. But not one word about actually cutting off those weapons destroying Gaza.
Every day dozens, hundreds, even a thousand or more Palestinians die in Gaza, obliterated by Biden’s 2,000 lb. bombs, or killed more slowly from disease or starvation. Biden does not care. His toothless letter begging for more aid to the 2,300,000 Palestinians will do nothing to alleviate their suffering. But it may mollify his antiwar critics enough to help achieve Democratic victory Election Day.
Win or lose November 5, Biden is unlikely to do anything substantive to end the genocidal ethnic cleansing of Gaza. It goes against everything he’s believed in and supported about Israeli colonial domination of Palestine for his entire 52 year governmental career. But it will ensure he descends into historical infamy for enabling the worst genocide of the 21st century.
Israel Kills Five Journalists in Sunday Gaza Attacks
Three journalists were among 9 civilians killed in a shelter
by Jason Ditz October 27, 2024, https://news.antiwar.com/2024/10/27/israel-kills-five-journalists-in-sunday-gaza-attacks/#gsc.tab=0
Israel has come under growing international criticism for its deliberate attacks on journalists. That doesn’t seem to be impacting Israeli policy, however, as five more journalists were reported killed today in attacks across the Gaza Strip.
The victims of today’s attacks included Saed Radwan with Al-Aqsa TV, Hamza Abu Salmiya with Sanad News Agency, Haneen Baroud with Al-Quds Foundation, Abdulrahman Al-Tanani with Sawt Al-Shaab, and Nadia Al-Sayed, who works for multiple outlets.
Radwan, Salmiya and Baroud were all killed in an Israeli attack on a UN school in al-Shati refugee camp, where people were sheltering from the ongoing attacks. Nine civilians overall, including the three journalists, were slain in the attack. The other two were killed in separate attacks.
This brings the number of journalists killed in the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip to at least 180. This toll is on top of those killed in other Israeli wars, including three Lebanese journalists who were killed in a deliberate Israeli attack on Friday.
Though Israel rarely offers specific comments on the individual assassinations, they have been making a concerted effort to brand a number of journalists as “terrorists.” Though this is being criticized by international press groups, it likely will reduce the specific questions about their eventual killing being an effort to silence reports on Israeli war crimes.
As with other civilians, many journalists are being forced to flee their homes as Israeli attacks approach. Israel has forbidden foreign journalists from entering the Gaza Strip to cover the war, and that means all the reports are coming from a shrinking number of local journalists who are still alive.
Media Hawks Make Case for War Against Iran

This depiction of Iran as an aggressor that has victimized the United States for 45 years, causing “suffering for thousands of Americans,” is a parody of history. The fact is that the US has imposed suffering on millions of Iranians for 71 years, starting with the overthrow of the country’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953. It propped up the brutal Pahlavi dictatorship until 1979, then backed Iraq’s invasion of Iran, helping Saddam Hussein use chemical weapons against Iranians (Foreign Policy, 8/26/13). It imposes murderous sanctions on Iran to this day (Canadian Dimension, 4/3/23).
What Stephens is deploying here is the tired and baseless propaganda strategy of hinting that World War II redux is impending if America doesn’t crush the Third World bad guy of the moment.
Gregory Shupak, FAIR, 25 Oct 24
The media hawks are flying high, pushing out bellicose rhetoric on the op-ed pages that seems calculated to whip the public into a war-ready frenzy.
Just as they have done with Hezbollah (FAIR.org, 10/10/24), prominent conservative media opinionators misrepresent Iran as the aggressor against an Israel that practices admirable restraint.
Under the headline, “Iran Opens the Door to Retaliation,” the Wall Street Journal editorial board (10/1/24) wrote that Iran’s October 1 operation against Israel “warrants a response targeting Iran’s military and nuclear assets. This is Iran’s second missile barrage since April, and no country can let this become a new normal.”
The editors wrote:
After April’s attack, the Biden administration pressured Israel for a token response, and President Biden said Israel should “take the win” since there was no great harm to Israel. Israel’s restraint has now yielded this escalation, and it is under no obligation to restrain its retaliation this time.
‘We need to escalate’
The New York Times‘ self-described “warmongering neocon” columnist Bret Stephens (10/1/24), in a piece headlined “We Absolutely Need to Escalate in Iran,” similarly filed Iran’s April and October strikes on Israel under “aggression” that requires a US/Israeli military “response.” And a Boston Globe editorial (10/3/24) wrote that Iran “launched a brazen attack,” arguing that the incident illustrated why US students are wrong to oppose American firms making or investing in Israeli weapons.
All of these pieces conveniently neglected to mention that Iran announced that its October 1 missile barrage was “a response to Israel’s recent assassinations of leaders of [Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps], Hezbollah and Hamas” (Responsible Statecraft, 10/1/24). One of these assassinations was carried out by a bombing in Tehran, the Iranian capital. But we can only guess as to whether the Globe thinks those killings are “brazen,” Stephens thinks they qualify as “aggression,” or if the Journal believes any country can let such assassinations “become a new normal.”
Likewise, Iran’s April strikes came after Israel’s attack on an Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers (CBS, 4/14/24). At the time, Iran reportedly said that it would refrain from striking back against Israel if the latter agreed to end its mass murder campaign in Gaza (Responsible Statecraft, 4/8/24).
‘Axis of Aggression’
A second Stephens piece (New York Times, 10/8/24) claimed that “the American people had better hope Israel wins” in its war against “the Axis of Aggression led from Tehran.” The latter is his term for the coalition of forces resisting the US and Israel from Palestine, Yemen, Lebanon and Iran, which refers to itself as the “axis of resistance.” Stephens’ reasoning is that, since Iran’s 1979 revolution, the country has meant suffering for thousands of Americans: the hostages at the US embassy in Tehran; the diplomatsand Marines in Beirut; the troops around Baghdad and Basra, killed by munitions built in Iran and supplied to proxies in Iraq; the American citizens routinely taken as prisoners in Iran; the Navy SEALs who perished in January trying to stop Iran from supplying Houthis with weapons used against commercial shipping.
The war Israelis are fighting now—the one the news media often mislabels the “Gaza war,” but is really between Israel and Iran—is fundamentally America’s war, too: a war against a shared enemy; an enemy that makes common cause with our totalitarian adversaries in Moscow and Beijing; an enemy that has been attacking us for 45 years. Americans should consider ourselves fortunate that Israel is bearing the brunt of the fighting; the least we can do is root for it.
This depiction of Iran as an aggressor that has victimized the United States for 45 years, causing “suffering for thousands of Americans,” is a parody of history. The fact is that the US has imposed suffering on millions of Iranians for 71 years, starting with the overthrow of the country’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953. It propped up the brutal Pahlavi dictatorship until 1979, then backed Iraq’s invasion of Iran, helping Saddam Hussein use chemical weapons against Iranians (Foreign Policy, 8/26/13). It imposes murderous sanctions on Iran to this day (Canadian Dimension, 4/3/23).
Given this background, suggesting—as the Journal, the Globe and Stephens do—that Iran is the aggressor against the US is not only untenable but laughable. Furthermore, as I’ve previously shown (FAIR.org, 1/21/20), it’s hardly a settled fact that Iran is responsible for Iraqi attacks on US occupation forces in the country. Stephens’ description of the Navy SEALs who died in the Red Sea is vague enough that one might be left with the impression that Iran or Ansar Allah killed them, but the SEALs died when one of them fell overboard and the other jumped into the water to try to save him (BBC, 1/22/24).
Stephens went on:
Those who care about the future of freedom had better hope Israel wins.
We are living in a world that increasingly resembles the 1930s, when cunning and aggressive dictatorships united against debilitated, inward-looking, risk-averse democracies. Today’s dictatorships also know how to smell weakness. We would all be safer if, in the Middle East, they finally learned the taste of defeat.
What Stephens is deploying here is the tired and baseless propaganda strategy of hinting that World War II redux is impending if America doesn’t crush the Third World bad guy of the moment. More realistically, the “future of freedom” is jeopardized by the US/Israeli alliance’s invading the lands of Palestinian and Lebanese people and massacring them. These crimes suggest that, in the Journal’s parlance, it’s the US/Israeli partnership that is the “regional and global menace.” Or, to borrow another phrase from the Journal’s editorial, it’s Israel and the US who are the “dangerous regime[s]” from which “the civilized world” must be defended.
‘A global menace’
Corporate media commentators didn’t stop at Iran’s direct strikes on Israel, casting Iran as, in the Journal‘s words (10/1/24), “a regional and global menace”:…………………………………………………………………
Painting Iran as the mastermind behind unprovoked worldwide aggression helps prop up the hawks’ demands for escalation. But the US State Department said there was “no direct evidence” that Iran was involved in the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel, “either in planning it or carrying it out” (NBC, 10/12/23)…………………………………………………………………………………..
Propaganda goes nuclear
As usual, those who are itching for a war on Iran invoke the specter of an Iranian nuclear weapon. Stephens (New York Times, 10/1/24) wrote:
This year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that Iran was within a week or two of being able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb. Even with the requisite fissile material, it takes time and expertise to fashion a nuclear weapon, particularly one small enough to be delivered by a missile. But a prime goal for Iran’s nuclear ambitions is plainly in sight, especially if it receives technical help from its new best friends in Russia, China and North Korea.
Now’s the time for someone to do something about it.
That someone will probably be Israel.
By “something,” Stephens said he also meant that “Biden should order” military strikes to destroy the “Isfahan missile complex.” “There is a uranium enrichment site near Isfahan, too,” Stephens wrote suggestively.
The LA Times published two guest op-eds in less than two weeks urging attacks on Iran based on its alleged nuclear threat. Yossi Klein Halevi (10/7/24) wrote:…………………………………..
‘Threshold’ is a ways away…………………………………………………….
Recent history shows that Iran has been willing to “stop itself” from acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran abided by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), popularly known as the Iran nuclear deal, under which Iran limited its nuclear development in exchange for a partial easing of US sanctions. It stuck to the deal for some time even after the United States unilaterally abandoned it.
Just before President Donald Trump ripped up the agreement in 2018, the IAEA reported that Iran was “implementing its nuclear-related commitments” under the accord. The year after the US abrogated the agreement, Iran was still keeping up its end of the bargain.
‘Provocative actions’ from US/Israel
Iran subsequently stopped adhering to the by then nonexistent deal—often advancing its nuclear program, as Responsible Statecraft (5/7/24) noted, “in response to provocative actions from the US and Israel”:
In early 2020, the Trump administration killed Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and soon after Tehran announced that it would no longer abide by its enrichment commitments under the deal. But, even so, Tehran said it would return to compliance if the other parties did so and met their commitments on sanctions relief.
In late 2020, Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated near Tehran, reportedly by Israel. Soon after, Iran’s Guardian Council approved a law to speed up the nuclear program by enriching uranium to 20%, increasing the rate of production, installing new centrifuges, suspending implementation of expanded safeguards agreements, and reducing monitoring and verification cooperation with the IAEA. The Agency has been unable to adequately monitor Iran’s nuclear activities under the deal since early 2021.
However, situating Iranian policies in relation to US/Israeli actions like these would get in the way of the Journal’s campaign, which it articulated in another editorial (10/2/24), to convince the public that “If Mr. Biden won’t take this opportunity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, the least he can do is not stop Israel from doing the job for its own self-preservation.”
Of course, the crucial, unstated assumption in the articles by Stephens, Halevi, Heilman and the Journal’s editors is that Iran’s hypothetical nuclear weapons are emergencies that need to be immediately addressed by bombing the country—while Washington and Tel Aviv’s vast, actually existing nuclear arsenals warrant no concern. https://fair.org/home/media-hawks-make-case-for-war-against-iran/
‘You couldn’t make this up’: Expert pans Ontario nuclear option

SMH, By Bianca Hall and Nick O’Malley, October 28, 2024
Ontario subsidises its citizens’ electricity power bills by $7.3 billion a year from general revenue, an international energy expert has said, contradicting the Coalition’s claim that nuclear reactors would drive power prices down in Australia.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has repeatedly cited the Canadian province as a model for cheaper power prices from nuclear.
“In Ontario, that family is paying half of what the family is paying here in Perth for their electricity because of nuclear power,” Dutton said in March. “Why wouldn’t we consider it as a country?”
In July, Dutton said Canadian consumers paid about one-quarter of Australian prices for electricity.
Professor Mark Winfield, an academic from York University in Canada who specialises in energy and environment, on Monday said the reaction among people in Ontario to the comparison had ranged from disbelief to “you couldn’t make this up”.
Ontario embarked on a massive building spree between the 1960s and the 1990s, Winfield told a briefing hosted by the Climate Council and the Smart Energy Council.
In the process, he said, the provincial-owned utility building the generators “effectively bankrupted itself”. About $21 billion in debt had to be stranded to render the successor organisation Ontario Power Generation economically viable.
In 2015, the Canadian government approved a plan to refurbish 10 ageing reactors, but Winfield said the refurbishment program had also been beset by cost blowouts.
“The last one, [in] Darlington, east of Toronto, was supposed to cost $C4 billion and ended up costing $C14 [billion],” Winfield said.
“And that was fairly typical of what we saw, of a cost overrun in the range of about 2.5 times over estimate.”
In Melbourne, Dutton said while he respected new Queensland Premier David Crisafulli’s opposition to nuclear, he would work with “sensible” premiers in Queensland, South Australia and NSW on his plan, if he was elected………………………………………………..
Winfield said household bills were kept artificially low under the Ontario model, despite the high cost of refurbishing ageing nuclear facilities.
“There’s a legacy of that still in the system that we are effectively subsidising electricity bills to the tune of about $C7.3 billion a year out of general revenues. That constitutes most of the provincial deficit; that’s money that otherwise could be going on schools and hospitals.”
Dutton’s comments came as a parliamentary inquiry into the suitability of nuclear power for Australia continued in Canberra. Experts provided evidence on how long it would take to build a nuclear fleet, and the potential cost and impact on energy prices compared with the government’s plan to replace the ageing coal fleet with a system of renewables backed by storage and gas peakers.
……………………………………………………….. In its annual GenCost, CSIRO estimated earlier this year that a single large-scale nuclear reactor in Australia would cost $16 billion and take nearly two decades to build, too late for it to help meet Australia’s international climate change commitments, which requires it to cut emissions 43 per cent by 2030. It found renewables to be the cheapest option for Australia.
Dutton has so far refused to be drawn on the costs of his nuclear policy. Opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien said the Coalition would release costings before the next federal election, which must be held by May.
O’Brien told this masthead “expert after expert” had provided evidence that nuclear energy placed downward pressure on power prices around the world. ……………. https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/you-couldn-t-make-this-up-expert-pans-ontario-nuclear-option-20241028-p5klx1.html
Climate Goal “Will Be Dead Within a Few Years” Unless World Acts, UN Warns

The world is well on track to blow past a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius that many countries have put at the center of their climate efforts
By Sara Schonhardt & E&E News
Climate Goal “Will Be Dead Within a Few Years” Unless World Acts, UN
Warns. The world is well on track to blow past a goal of limiting global
warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius that many countries have put at the center
of their climate efforts. I
f current trends continue, “there is virtually
no chance” of limiting global warming over the past 170 years to 1.5
degrees, according to the latest emissions gap report from the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Even in the most optimistic
scenarios, where all countries deliver on their emission-cutting pledges,
“there remains about a 3-in-4 chance that warming will exceed 1.5C,” it
adds.
Scientific American 25th Oct 2024, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-goal-will-be-dead-within-a-few-years-unless-world-acts-un-warns/
Are Royal Navy nuclear deterrent submarines being re-supplied mid-patrol?
Navy Lookout 25th Oct 2024
A recent article in The Sun newspaper suggests that submariners were almost “starved’ while on an epic six-month patrol because the boat could not be resupplied with food as planned. Here, we briefly consider the implications of this report.
As we first reported, Vanguard-class submarines have been conducting increasingly lengthy Patrols with HMS Vigilant completing a record 195-day patrol in September 2023 and at least one other boat also came close to repeating the feat in 2024. This was due to a number of factors, including the delayed refit of HMS Vanguard and the unavailability of the shiplift in Faslane to conduct urgent maintenance.
The Sun may be dismissed by many as mostly disreputable rag but the journalists who wrote this piece have a good track record and this is a credible story. Under the superb headline “The Hunt for Bread October”, the tabloid reports that the boat ran so low on food that the crew were forced to ration meals. Personal supplies of sweets and nutty were handed in to be shared equally and the small tuckshop on board ran out of supplies and was closed. Of deeper concern, the report says medics on board feared a serious loss of life from fatigue and concentration lapses, although the RN denies there was any danger of starvation. The report does not reveal the kind of quality and frequency of meals being served towards the end of the patrol but does raise questions about the true endurance of nuclear boats.
Able to produce their own power, make freshwater, produce oxygen and remove excess CO2, nuclear submarine endurance is theoretically almost indefinite, only subject to machinery reliability. The limiting factor is the mental endurance of the people on board and their food supply. Even modern AIP conventional submarines will eventually have to return to port to take on diesel fuel so their chain of command do not have the option to extend patrols in the same way……………………………………………………………………..
The Vanguards were originally designed to conduct patrols of around three months, possibly extended to around four months at a push. The storerooms and freezers may have been subsequently modified to support even longer patrols but space is at a premium, even on a large SSBN. There is also the issue of waste disposal, SSBNs are not supposed to eject gash as it potentially could provide a clue to their presence. Imagine how much waste is generated by 130 people during six months at sea. There is also the mundane but important issue of toilet paper. Finding room for an adequate supply of bulky loo rolls can be a problem even on more spacious surface ships. It is difficult to believe that a Vanguard boat can stay at sea unsupported for 6 months, even if it began the patrol with extra food crammed into absolutely every available space.
The most critical line in the Sun article is that “plans to resupply at sea were scrapped”. It is speculation, but it would appear that in order to stay at sea for 6-months, the expectation is that the boats will be resupplied by a ship mid-patrol. This would mean surfacing somewhere and rapidly taking on food and offloading gash. This would need to be done as discreetly as possible, probably at night and in a sheltered location where the resupply can be done quickly and safely. The vessel involved may have been specially equipped for the task as coming alongside a submarine in open water is not easy. Alternatively, a helicopter could VERTREP supplies onto the casing. Either way, if this is the case, it would break a key principle of the nuclear deterrent that is never supposed to surface, potentially exposing it to detection.
With three boats back in the patrol cycle it is hoped that patrol lengths will fall slightly and these epic patrols can be avoided in future. The First Sea Lord, government ministers and His Majesty the King have all been to Faslane/Coulport in recent months to say a personal “thank you” to the crews of these boats who have clearly gone above and beyond in making personal sacrifices to maintain the continuous at-sea deterrent. The ‘super patrols’ might be tolerable on a couple of occasions but cannot be sustainable as it puts undue mental stress on people and risk the credibility and safety of the deterrent force. https://www.navylookout.com/are-royal-navy-nuclear-deterrent-submarines-being-re-supplied-mid-patrol/
MP seeks answers on Submarine Dismantling Project in Rosyth
26th October, By Ally McRoberts
THE UK Government have been asked what steps they’re taking to keep West Fife safe and mitigate the “potential risks” posed by the Submarine Dismantling Project.
Radioactive waste is being removed from old nuclear subs at Rosyth Dockyard and Babcock have just applied for permission for more hazardous material to be taken out in the next stage.
Christine Jardine, Lib Dem MP for Edinburgh West, submitted a question at Westminster: “To ask the Secretary of State for Defence (John Healey), what steps his department is taking to (a) ensure the safety of and (b) mitigate potential risks posed by the decommissioning of nuclear submarines at Rosyth Royal Dockyard for surrounding residential areas.”
On Mr Healey’s
behalf, Maria Eagle, Minister for Defence Procurement, replied: “All the
submarines currently stored at Rosyth have already been de-fuelled, which
has significantly reduced overall potential risk. “Further, steps include
contractual requirements with Babcock International around safety and
environmental factors. “These include regular sampling of surrounding
waters and beaches, and dismantling one boat as a demonstrator to determine
the safest methods before starting on other boats.
Dunfermline Press 26th Oct 2024, https://www.dunfermlinepress.com/news/24679595.mp-seeks-answers-submarine-dismantling-project-rosyth/
The non-proliferation considerations of nuclear-powered submarines
Alexander Hoppenbrouwers |Research Intern at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP) 28 Oct 24 https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/the-non-proliferation-considerations-of-nuclear-powered-submarines/
Since its announcement in late 2021, the AUKUS security partnership has sparked heated debate about its impact on global security. Critics of the partnership argue that it would provide nuclear-powered submarines fuelled with high-enriched uranium to Australia, a non-nuclear weapon state under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Non-nuclear weapon states can conclude a so-called Article 14 arrangement in such situations, which means that routine safeguard measures by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure that the fuel is not diverted for the production of nuclear material for a weapons programme would temporarily not be applied. Some states have called this a nuclear proliferation risk.
The political and legal considerations in Article 14 arrangements have been, and continue to be, extensively discussed. Relatively little attention has been paid to the technical factors related to the nuclear-powered submarine programme that would influence an Article 14 arrangement. Exploring technical issues shows that the main potential proliferation risks associated with an Article 14 arrangement are located outside of the actual use of nuclear material to fuel the submarine, and that the IAEA will need to ensure that classification concerns do not stand in the way of adequate verification measures during this period.
Article 14 and diversion
Article 14 refers to a standard part of the safeguards agreement that non-nuclear weapon states must conclude with the IAEA. Under an Article 14 arrangement, routine safeguards procedures are not applied to nuclear material to be used in non-proscribed military activities (as opposed to the proscribed use as nuclear explosives) since applying them would reveal classified military information. They are replaced by other measures that allow the IAEA to provide credible assurance that this nuclear material is not diverted. When evaluating the risk of diversion, much of the current literature focuses on the scenario where a state uses the non-application of safeguards as an opportunity to covertly remove the nuclear material from the submarine.
Looking at technical issues shows the challenge associated with such diversion. In the case of AUKUS, to remove nuclear material, the metal submarine hull designed to withstand tremendous water pressure would need to be cut open with heavy machinery. The submarine’s fuel would then be extracted from the reactor, requiring specialised facilities. Fuel for a nuclear submarine, however, cannot easily be used for the production of nuclear material for a weapons programme: it comes in the form of fuel rods surrounded by metal or ceramic cladding rather than the uranium or plutonium metal form used in weapons programmes. The uranium in this fuel would need to be chemically separated from other materials before it could be used to produce nuclear material for a weapons programme. All the above steps cannot be carried out quickly enough to outpace international reaction, so it would have to be done in covert facilities without alerting other states to the fact that a submarine worth billions of euros had disappeared and an underground weapons programme had been launched. Hatches in the hull can provide easier access to the nuclear material, but the fuel used by submarines with hatches consists of uranium that is lower enriched – and thus less proliferation-sensitive – than the uranium AUKUS submarines will use.
The main potential proliferation risks associated with an Article 14 arrangement are located outside of the actual use of nuclear material to fuel the submarine. Alexander Hoppenbrouwers
This suggests that two other technical issues will decide the diversion risks of an Article 14 arrangement. Firstly, how easy it is to use the fuel in question to produce nuclear material for a weapons programme. In addition to the ease of separating uranium from other materials mentioned above, this ease is determined by the enrichment of uranium. This refers to the percent of the total material that is fissile. Nuclear-powered submarines make use of uranium enriched to levels between around five and 97 percent, while weapons programmes generally require enrichment of 90 percent or higher. Secondly, how much access the state has to the type of nuclear facilities needed for the production of nuclear material for a weapons programme. Enrichment and reprocessing facilities play a key role in this regard.
The ability of the IAEA to carry out verification related to these two technical issues may be limited by classification concerns. Knowing the technical specifications of submarine fuel can help outsiders deduce what the submarine’s capacities, such as speed or operational range, might be. To avoid this, states may try to limit verification measures that could reveal technical specifications, such as routine safeguards. This could also apply to activities outside of the fuel’s use in the submarine, for example when the fuel is being fabricated.
What diversion risks should Article 14 discussions focus on?
Considering the above technical concerns, three main diversion risks present themselves. First, a state could use an excuse to remove nuclear fuel from the submarine when it returns to port. For instance, the state could claim that the submarine is undergoing maintenance unrelated to the nuclear material, which would reveal classified information if observed. A believable excuse may allow the state to gain a head start in the lengthy process of removing nuclear material described earlier by reducing international scrutiny.
Second, a state could attempt to divert nuclear material that is still in the fuel cycle. If it successfully argues that safeguards should not be applied to some nuclear facilities, reduced oversight offers an opportunity: for instance, the state could try to divert nuclear material being converted into fuel.
Third, a state could use the nuclear-powered submarine programme as an excuse to develop its nuclear capabilities. If a state domestically produces fuel for a submarine that requires high-enriched uranium, it has a chance to build a reserve of nuclear material—not yet converted into submarine fuel—that could be diverted before the international community has an opportunity to respond.
These diversion risks suggest that an Article 14 arrangement should pay close attention to four key measures:
- There should be minimal and ideally no non-application of safeguards outside of the use of fuel in the submarine.
- Oversight should be given over the transportation of nuclear material, and its presence in facilities should be verified, including in a classified form.
- Verification measures should be carried out when nuclear material is placed in and removed from the submarine.
- The nuclear material’s presence in the submarine should regularly be verified.
Furthermore, discussions on Article 14 arrangements should consider a submarine programme’s impact outside the arrangement itself. In this context, any potential increase in a state’s ability to produce nuclear material for a weapons programme should be met with increased international monitoring.
TThe negotiations of the document on which Article 14 is based gives the IAEA solid arguments to apply safeguards to nuclear material when it is not used as fuel in the submarine, including during transportation between facilities. Alexander Hoppenbrouwer
What could the IAEA’s approach to Article 14 negotiations be?
The closer verification measures get to the finished form of the fuel and to the submarine, the more a state will object to them due to their potential to reveal information about the submarine’s operational capacity. When the IAEA pursues its goal of providing credible assurance that nuclear material is not diverted, the main obstacle it will encounter is the need to balance its objective with Article 14’s enshrinement of the protection of classified knowledge.
The IAEA can insist on at least the first three of the four points laid out above. The negotiations of the document on which Article 14 is based clearly established that the non-application of safeguards does not extend to activities that are not intrinsically military, specifically naming enrichment and reprocessing. While the status of fuel fabrication activities is less clear, this gives the IAEA solid arguments to apply safeguards to nuclear material when it is not used as fuel in the submarine, including during transportation between facilities. It also suggests that the IAEA should be able to verify that fuel has entered an intrinsically military activity, namely when it is installed in the submarine. Regarding the fourth point, it is unlikely that the IAEA will regularly be able to carry out verification measures in or around the submarine. However, seeing the submarine in operational use would confirm the presence of nuclear material on board. The IAEA could, therefore, seek to ensure that it can carry out some verification measures whenever the submarine returns to port for longer-than-usual periods of time, adjusted based on how long the extraction of nuclear material from the submarine is estimated to take.
The European Leadership Network itself as an institution holds no formal policy positions. The opinions
Green jobs and green skills – the state of play

October 26, 2024, https://renewextraweekly.blogspot.com/2024/10/green-jobs-and-green-skills-state-of.html
In 2023, the global renewable energy sector witnessed a record increase in jobs, rising from 13.7 million in 2022 to 16.2 million. China led with an estimated 7.4 million renewable energy jobs, representing 46% of the global total. The EU followed with 1.8 million jobs, while Brazil had 1.56 million. The US and India each contributed nearly one million jobs. The strongest growth was seen in the solar photovoltaics sector, which accounted for 7.2 million jobs globally, with 4.6 million jobs located in China.
However, as I have reported in earlier posts, green skill shortages may slow progress and, exploring this issue in the UK context, an Imperial College Futures Lab briefing paper has investigated the Net-Zero job skills and training requirements in the UK’s energy system. It notes that the governments advisory Committee on Climate Change (CCC) estimates that between 135,000 and 725,000 net new jobs could be created in the UK by 2030 directly in low-carbon sectors, this wide range highlighting uncertainties in estimates about the number of workers required to support the transition to Net-Zero. The Futures Lab study identifies ongoing barriers and opportunities for expanding low-carbon job competencies, culminating in a set of policy recommendations to create clear, inclusive training pathways into low-carbon energy jobs.
Using three sectoral case studies, the paper investigates challenges and opportunities for improving skills and training. Firstly it shows how the building energy retrofit sector faces a significant shortage of skilled workers, particularly in heat pump installation, energy efficiency measures, retrofit coordination, and digital roles. Despite the potential to create 120,000–230,000 new jobs by 2030, it says ‘inconsistent policies and funding have hindered private investment in training’. Secondly, the offshore wind sector is forecast to employ over 100,000 workers in 2030, compared to 32,000 in 2022. But it says ‘offshore wind struggles with skills gaps in electrical, digital, consenting, and marine roles, relying on experienced workers and those from other industries to fill these gaps’. Thirdly, the paper claims the electric vehicles sector ‘could generate at least 80,000 new jobs over the next 10-15 years’ but says that this ‘is contingent on gigafactory development, with key skills needed in charging point installation, vehicle recycling, battery manufacturing, and electrification engineering.’
Most of these cases involve expanding training for specific green energy technologies and electrification, but the report says that ‘not all industrial decarbonisation can be achieved through direct electrification, and particularly across hard-to-abate industries, decarbonisation will depend on the development of hydrogen and CCUS sectors’. It notes that ‘growth of these sectors is considered highly conditional, subject to the competitiveness of international markets, the availability of skilled labour, and levels of investment,’ but reports that the CCC estimates that ‘these industries could create between 1,500 and 97,000 new jobs by 2030’. It adds that ‘the current offshore oil and gas workforce is expected to provide a large number of skills required in these sectors’.
That’s good news (arguably blue hydrogen/CCUS apart) but making it happen won’t be easy. It is interesting in this context that there has recently been a call for £1.9bn a year to help oil and gas workers move into clean energy, with the Green Jobs Taskforce also estimating that ‘the low-carbon transport sector could create 78,000 new jobs by 2040, including 24,500 in battery manufacturing, 43,500 in the battery supply chain, and 10,000 in EV manufacturing’.
Looking to the way ahead, the Future Lab identify a series of barriers facing this type of job transition. First come straight forward ‘skills transferability’ barriers. For example it notes that it has been estimated that 100,000 jobs in the UK’s offshore energy sector will be filled by workers transferring from oil and gas into offshore renewable roles, and by new entrants from outside the sector. But it says ‘there is debate about how transferable skills across high- and low-carbon sectors actually are, and whether a ‘topping up’ of skills or more rigorous retraining will be required for those transitioning’.
Then there are mobility barriers. ‘Whether or not workers are able to take low-carbon jobs will depend on where and when existing jobs are being lost and new jobs become available. It will also depend on the supply of and demand for relevant training, which is likely to be unevenly distributed in terms of quantity and quality. If green jobs or re-skilling opportunities do not appear in areas where jobs have been phased out, workers will either have to lose out on opportunities, seek employment in other high-carbon sectors, or relocate, which risks reinforcing existing regional inequalities.’
That links up to regional barriers. It says ‘UK regions with a higher concentration of energy-intensive industries, such as the North East, Yorkshire and the Humber, and the West Midlands, stand a higher chance of being negatively affected by the transition. These regions are often also those whose economies have seen the least growth in recent decades. They are also likely to have less capacity and resources to be able to provide adequate re-skilling support’.
And finally there are diversity barriers. The report notes that ‘the current energy sector is predominantly represented by white male workers. Available statistics suggest that only 5% of the workforce comes from BAME backgrounds. Unless active measures are taken to support underrepresented groups joining the Net-Zero energy workforce, occupational gender & ethnicity gaps are likely to persist’.
Some of the reports recommended actions are obvious enough from the foregoing analysis. For example green sectors should be ‘inclusive and respectful places to work, where underrepresented groups not liable to be discriminated against’, and we should build ‘closer links between high- and low-carbon energy sectors to create direct routes into new jobs.’
More specifically ‘current public financing mechanisms for skills, including the Apprenticeship Levy, the National Skills Fund, and the Adult Education Budget, should be reviewed to see how funding can be better directed towards the development of training for green jobs. Additional public funding should also be leveraged to support long-term development of skills for Net-Zero, specifically for FE colleges and training providers to be able to develop new, high-quality green courses and overcome low participation rates. There is also a case for targeted funding for SMEs who cannot afford to send staff to be trained or take on apprentices’. And more generally, ‘introduce a national Net-Zero Skills Commission to take on monitoring, research and advisory roles to support development of skills for the Net-Zero transition in England.’
Plenty of good ideas. Let’s hope some are implemented soon, and meantime, the UK government is pushing ahead with its ‘skills passport’ initiative. In parallel, we hope helpfully, OU Visiting Research Fellow Terry Cook and I are putting together a journal paper on this whole area, looking in particular at what governments can do at the strategic level, by making new energy technology funding/subsidies conditional on the provision of green skill training programmes.
This week: countering the nuclear-military-industrial news.

A bit of good news. UNICEF highlights four proven policy solutions for children
TOP STORIES
Israel’s War on Journalism. Israel’s Iran reprisal, Middle East destabilized. ‘This is an extermination’: Israel’s assault on north Gaza’s last functioning hospital. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wKluf25Or0
Sellafield cleanup cost rises to £136bn amid tensions with Treasury.
Japan struggles to find nuclear waste disposal site.
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Climate. Climate Goal “Will Be Dead Within a Few Years” Unless World Acts, UN Warns. UNEP: New climate pledges need ‘quantum leap’ in ambition to deliver Paris goals.‘Climate crunch time’: UN warns world risks over 3C warming without urgent action this decade.
‘We have emotions too’: Climate scientists respond to attacks on objectivity.
Cop29 host Azerbaijan set for major fossil gas expansion, report says.
Biodiversity. Humanity is on the verge of ‘shattering Earth’s natural limits’, say experts in biodiversity warning
Noel’s notes. Weep for Gaza, the Palestinians, weep for the Jews- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wKluf25Or0 Behind the really nasty “NICE” nuclear energy push to control the November COP Climate Change Conference. The world’s top lying nuclear salesman is after your climate action money.
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AUSTRALIA. Top Australian honour (whaa-at !!!!) for American politician who helped push Australia into the AUKUS agreement. Union slams “false hope” in nuclear push, warns energy jobs at risk. Matt Kean lambasts ‘wild fantasy’ of former Coalition colleagues to extend coal power and build nuclear plants. Drink up: Peter Dutton needs one billion empty Coke cans to store his nuclear waste. More nuclear news headlines at https://antinuclear.net/2024/10/24/australian-nuclear-news-21-28-october/
NUCLEAR ITEMS.
| ATROCITIES. The Gazafication of Lebanon: Israel Blows up Nabatieh City Hall, kills Mayor and Aid Workers. When The Holocaust Returned It Came Denouncing Anti-Semitism And Wearing A Star Of David. |
| CLIMATE. Nuclear lobby on track to sabotage COP29 . Book: Meltdown nightmares: silent spring for climate change. |
| CIVIL LIBERTIES. Literary Institutions Are Pressuring Authors to Remain Silent About Gaza. |
| ECONOMICS. Cost overruns at Sellafield nuclear waste site to hit £136bn ALSO AT ….. |
| EDUCATION. Nuclear lobby continues to infiltrate education. Nuclear lobby propagandises to kids AGAIN! |
| EMPLOYMENT. Green jobs and green skills – the state of play. |
| ENERGY. How data centres will cut carbon emissions, not increase them. Will AI’s huge energy demands spur a nuclear renaissance? |
| ENVIRONMENT. ‘Millions of fish could die’ under current Hinkley Point C plan. Fears salt marsh plan could lead to ‘destruction’ of Severn Vale. Somerset village would be devastated by salt marsh plans. Navy ‘Innovation’ Center for “warfighting capabilities” will harm the Monterey Peninsula and ocean. Wildlife Refuge’s Toxic Past Still A Colorado Concern. Inside the radioactive island with mutant sharks that was used to test nuclear bombs. |
| EVENTS. Petition (UK). Scrutinise Sizewell C |
| HEALTH. Crew members on Royal Navy nuclear submarine left with ‘low supplies’ and suffering fatigue. |
| LEGAL. UK Snubs Council of Europe Over Assange Inquiry. Fighting for More Evidence of Assange’s Political Prosecution. |
| MEDIA. Media Hawks Make Case for War Against Iran. Israel Continues Its War On Journalism. Let’s talk about…Mainstream Media (MSM) Coverage of Israeli War Crimes. Western Press Scramble To Frame Israel’s Attack On Iran As Self Defense. Ha ha – Facebook removed my post AGAIN! |
| OPPOSITION to NUCLEAR . ‘Nuclear waste would be disaster for our seaside’. |
| PLUTONIUM. Isotopic signature of plutonium accumulated in cryoconite on glaciers worldwide. |
POLITICS.
- Ontario town starts voting today on willingness to host ‘forever’ nuclear waste storage site.
- The New Nuclear Push: New Package, Same Lies.
- Harris admits to US/Israeli genocide in Gaza….then says ‘Oops, never mind’.
- Crippling The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA): The Knesset’s Collective Punishment of Palestinians.
- Slovenia cancels referendum on new nuclear plant. Slovenia’s referendum on new nuclear cancelled.
- MP Steffan Aquarone says scrap Norfolk nuclear power plans.
POLITICS INTERNATIONAL and DIPLOMACY. Path to peace in Ukraine is thru negotiated settlement, not escalatory war that could go nuclear.
Iran complains to IAEA about possible Israeli attack on nuclear sites. Biden to Bibi: ‘OK to continue Gaza genocide till after election’. President Biden’s depraved last 15 months enables Israel’s genocidal destruction of Gaza.
| SAFETY.Iran complains to UN nuclear watchdog about Israeli threats against its nuclear sites.US nuclear regulator kicks off review on Three Mile Island restart.Letter laments the unscientific assurances of safety by spokesmen from the nuclear industry.Are Royal Navy nuclear deterrent submarines being re-supplied mid-patrol? |
| SECRETS and LIES. Mini-Nukes, Big Bucks: The Interests Behind the SMR Push.US authorizes CIA mercenaries to run biometric concentration camps in Gaza Strip.Secrecy over radioactive pollution from nuclear bases. |
| SPACE. EXPLORATION, WEAPONS. Space Tech Is How Israel Targets Doctors’ & Journalists’ Homes For Bombing. |
| SPINBUSTER. Alistair Osborne – nuclear is waste of time and money– ALSO AT https://nuclear-news.net/2024/10/25/2-a-alistair-osborne-nuclear-is-waste-of-time-and-money/‘You couldn’t make this up’: Expert pans Ontario nuclear option. |
| TECHNOLOGY. Three Mile Island nuclear plant gears up for Big Tech reboot. |
| URANIUM. Nuclear Energy Firm Orano Halts Niger Uranium Production |
WASTES.
- Google and Amazon Are Betting Big on Nuclear: No One Has a Plan for the Radioactive Waste ALSO AT https://nuclear-news.net/2024/10/28/1-b1-google-and-amazon-are-betting-big-on-nuclear-no-one-has-a-plan-for-the-radioactive-waste/
- Nuclear waste plant ‘leaking 2,100 litres of contaminated water a day’– ALSO AT https://nuclear-news.net/2024/10/25/2-b1-nuclear-waste-plant-leaking-2100-litres-of-contaminated-water-a-day/
- Has Canada’s Nuclear Waste Management Organization earned the public’s trust? – ALSO AT https://nuclear-news.net/2024/10/26/1-b1-has-canadas-nuclear-waste-management-organization-earned-the-publics-trust/
- Decommissioning. Last German nuclear power plant to receives decommissioning and dismantling permit.
- Britain ‘must speed up’ disposal of old nuclear submarines.
- Japan to resume trial removal of Fukushima nuclear debris, reports say.
| WAR and CONFLICT. Israel strikes Iran military targets amid fears of a wider war. |
| WEAPONS and WEAPONS SALES. CND condemns ‘outrageous railroading’ of US-UK nuclear agreement renewal through Parliament. |
Israel’s Iran reprisal, Middle East destabilized.

By Dan Steinbock, 27 Oct 24,
On Saturday, Israel’s retaliatory attack was framed as “carefully
calibrated.” But in the absence of ceasefire, regional turmoil is
simmering close to an edge, thanks to the escalation ladder.
Early on Saturday, Israel hit Iran with a set of airstrikes, stating it was targeting
military sites in retaliation for the 180 missiles that Iran fired into Israel over 3
weeks ago (which itself was a reprisal against a prior Israeli offensive).
Officially, it was a “carefully orchestrated, underwhelming retaliation” that was
preceded by Israel’s message to Iran ahead of the impending attack. But not
everything is what it seems to be in the Middle East.
The stories behind the stories
The Israeli retaliation was designed to be underwhelming; not by the
Netanyahu cabinet, but by the White House and the Pentagon.
Presumably, portions of Iranian military sites in three provinces – Tehran, Ilam
and Khuzestan – were hit. Iran said its air defenses successful and damage
was estimated as “limited.”
Yet later, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated Israel targeted “missile
manufacturing facilities used to produce the missiles that Iran fired at the state
of Israel over the last year.” It also hit surface-to-air missile sites and
“additional Iranian aerial capabilities.”
To stress that the retaliation was more effective, the Israeli Air Force later
claimed that these attacks had destroyed “the backbone of Iran’s missile
industry”, a critical component of its ballistic missile program. The targets
struck were sophisticated equipment that Iran could not produce on its own
and had to be purchased from China. Subsequent reports claim Israel
destroyed air defense systems near oil refineries in retaliatory strike on Iran.
If that’s the case, Netanyahu government was trying to minimize the damage
it caused in Iran, to appease the White House and defuse a potential Iranian
response. By the same token, Netanyahu struggled to deflect international
attention away from atrocities in northern Gaza and southern Lebanon.
The Netanyahu cabinet was playing with fire.
Retaliation scenarios and repercussions
Since early October, I had argued that there were basically three basic
scenarios for an Israeli retaliation:
- First, a proportionate Israeli retaliation would signal might without
causing widespread economic and human costs. - A disproportionate escalation would also target vulnerable
infrastructure. - Finally, if the aim is to seek regime change, the retaliation would
additionally target Iranian nuclear sites and critical military
infrastructure, hoping to destabilize Iran for a US-style regime change.
In the first case, Iran would likely contain its further response. In the second,
Iran would escalate. In the third, all bets would be off in the Middle East and
global reverberations would ensue.
Israel’s Saturday attack seems to have been positioned within the scenario 1
(unless critical infrastructure was, indeed, destroyed which takes us into
scenario 2 and more lethal consequences). This was a surprise to many who
expected a massive Israeli reprisal, as President Netanyahu and his defense
minister Gallant had pledged and the cabinet’s far-right had urged.
Reaction in Israel
The net effects in Israel? PM Netanyahu lost political capital. In part, he will
suffer heavy criticism by the Messianic far-right. It seeks a war with Iran and
would like to drag the U.S. administration into a regional conflict.
At the same time, the opposition blames Netanyahu for the failure to better
sync Israeli responses with Washington (the argument of center-right Benny
Gantz). Another part of the opposition says Israel should have deployed a
stronger response against Iran (the argument of the centrist Yair Lapid)
The fact that a pure scenario 2-like retaliation did not happen – if that proves
to be the case – is likely a direct outcome of hard American pressure. After all,
the initial Israeli retaliation plan was leaked, which undermined the expected
scenario 2 attack.
Most likely, Israel’s initial plans were far more aggressive and offensive. Most
probably, those plans were buried after U.S. pressure. If the Biden
administration and/or its stakeholders were behind the leak, it would not be
surprising.
A regionwide war in the Middle East is the last thing the Democratic White
House needs just two weeks before the U.S. presidential election –
particularly as the fragile lead of Vice-President Kamala Harris is softening.
Israel, Iran and US presidential race
The way the Israeli response was constrained may contain the ongoing
destabilization in the Middle East in the short-term; until the U.S. election day.
That, however, is predicated on the assumption that the impending attack by
Hezbollah against more than two dozen Jewish settlements in northern Israel
will not further escalate the status quo.
Nonetheless, during the U.S. presidential transition – between November and
mid-January – there is another vacuum when much can still happen.
It is not in the interest of Iran to attack. But it is very much in the interest of the
Netanyahu cabinet and particularly PM Netanyahu to retaliate harder. To
retain his immunity and avoid prosecution for corruption, Netanyahu depends on the far-right support.
The bottom line: If Harris wins the US election, Netanyahu will face some
constraints. If Trump emerges as the winner, Netanyahu is likely to see it as a
carte blanche for a broad-scale Iran attack.
Currently, both Israel and the U.S. share the strategic objective of
destabilizing Iran and undermining its government. As I show in my book The
Fall of Israel, these goals were developed in the US already two decades ago.
The question is not “what” and “why”, but “when” and “how.”
The Middle East crisis is far from over. Tragically, the future of the Middle East
is effectively a hostage of the U.S. presidential race.
Regional uncertainty
There are many possible scenarios, as long as Israel is able and willing to
execute offensive actions in multiple fronts, thanks to the incessant flow of
U.S. weapons to Israel, American bases in Israel and the region at large, and
massive financial inflows of U.S. military aid.
In the past, U.S. military aid to Israel amounted to $3.8 billion per year; last
year, it soared to $18 billion. It is not transparent aid. The Biden administration
has not disclosed its true extent. Financially, it contributes to the soaring U.S.
debt, which already exceeds the size of the American economy. In the Gaza
Strip and possibly in southern Lebanon, this aid has made U.S. complicit to
genocidal atrocities.
Thanks to the continued destabilization, the turmoil in the Middle East is
simmering close to an edge. Worse, the uncertainty is likely to prevail as long
as:
- Israel’s genocidal atrocities, backed by U.S. weapons and funds,
continue in the Gaza Strip and elsewhere in Israel’s proximate
neighborhood; - there is no ceasefire between Israel and Hamas;
- the Israeli hostages are ignored by the Netanyahu cabinet;
- the anti-Arab pogroms prevail in the West Bank which is effectively
being annexed into Israel; - the IDF keeps pushing deeper into southern Lebanon;
- Iran’s government and critical civilian and military infrastructure remain
Netanyahu cabinet’s ultimate targets, with intelligence and logistical
support by the United States.
The worst is not behind. It has only been deferred, for now.

On the new book, The Fall of Israel, see
https://www.claritypress.com/product/the-fall-of-israel/
Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar
world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China
and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see
https://www.differencegroup.net
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