nuclear-news

Indian nuclear weapons, 2024

By Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, Mackenzie Knight | September 5, 2024

India continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal, with at least four new weapon systems and several new delivery platforms under development to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems, and sea-based systems. Several of these systems are nearing completion and will soon be fielded.

We estimate that India may have produced enough military plutonium for 130 to 210 nuclear warheads but likely has produced only around 172, although the country’s warhead stockpile is likely growing. The Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by the staff of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project: director Hans M. Kristensen, associate director Matt Korda, senior research associates Eliana Johns and Mackenzie Knight.

This article is freely available in PDF format in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ digital magazine (published by Taylor & Francis) at this link. 

…………………..India continues to modernize its nuclear weapons arsenal and operationalize its nascent triad. We estimate that India currently operates eight different nuclear-capable systems: two aircraft, five land-based ballistic missiles, and one sea-based ballistic missile. At least five more systems are in development, most of which are thought to be nearing completion and to be fielded with the armed forces soon.

Research methodology and confidence

The Indian government does not publish numbers about the size of its nuclear weapon stockpile. The analyses and estimates made in the Nuclear Notebook are therefore derived from a combination of open sources: (1) state-originating data (e.g. government statements, declassified documents, budgetary information, military parades, and treaty disclosure data); (2) non-state-originating data (e.g. media reports, think tank analyses, and industry publications); and (3) commercial satellite imagery. …………………………………………………………….

…………Fissile material and warhead inventory estimates

India is one of only a handful of countries believed to be producing both highly enriched uranium (HEU) and weapons-grade plutonium, although its HEU production is largely assumed to be focused on producing fuel for its growing number of nuclear-powered vessels and submarines (Frieß et al. 2024).

………………..Nuclear doctrine

Tensions between India and Pakistan constitute one of the most concerning nuclear hotspots on the planet. These two nuclear-armed countries engaged in open hostilities as recently as November 2020, when Indian and Pakistani soldiers exchanged artillery and gunfire over the Line of Control, resulting in at least 22 deaths. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. more https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-09/indian-nuclear-weapons-2024/

September 8, 2024 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | India, weapons and war