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Will Ukraine’s attack on Russian territory lead to the seizure of the Kursk Nuclear Plant?

Bellona, BY Dmitry Gorchakov, 9 Aug 24

As the Ukrainian army’s cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region rages into its fourth day, the objectives of the surprise attack have been grist for media speculation. Some have suggested the Ukrainians might target the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant as payback for Russia’s long-running seizure of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

It’s difficult to say how likely such a scenario is, but should it come to pass, it makes sense to briefly analyze the problems, risks, and dilemmas that would come of such an attack.

The specifics of the Kursk NPP

The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant is the closest Russian nuclear power plant to the Ukrainian border—just 60 km away. The idea that it could be at risk of attacks during a full-scale war became evident in the early months of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Russia seizure of the Zaporizhzhia plant and territory of Chernobyl, followed by vigorous Ukrainian counterattacks, made clear that this would be a full-scale and potentially prolonged war with consequences for Russian territories.

As the war has dragged on, we have seen the Kursk NPP and its satellite city, Kurchatov, fall under attack by Ukrainian drones. No other Russian nuclear plants, which are much farther from the border and the front line, have been subjected to such attacks.

Currently, only two units are operating at the Kursk NPP, Units 3 and 4, each with a capacity of 1,000 MW. The first two units were shut down in 2021 and early 2024, respectively, after 45 years of operation. Fuel has been unloaded from Unit 1. All of the Kursk NPP’s units are RBMK-1000 reactors, similar to those used at Chernobyl. It’s worth noting that RBMK reactors — unlike the VVER-1000 reactors installed at the Zaporizhzhia NPP — are less protected against external threats. Much of our risk analysis for the Zaporizhzhia NPP during its seizure, presented in our 2023 report “The Radiation Risks of Seizing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant,” was based on a comparison of the characteristics of these reactor types.

Let’s examine some of the technical points and key vulnerabilities of the RBMK design. First, the lack of concrete containment structures (domes) over the reactor compartments makes RBMK reactors more vulnerable to damage from accidental or deliberate attacks by missiles, bombs, and artillery. Small arms or even light drones pose less danger.

Second, RBMK’s are single-circuit, boiling water reactors. This means that the same water and steam that pass through the reactor core go directly to the turbine, without intermediate circuits and heat exchangers. Therefore, depressurization and damage to the machine hall could lead to a radiation release………………………………

The seizure of nuclear facilities during war

Any armed seizure of a nuclear facility is unacceptable and extremely dangerous. Formally, this can be considered nuclear terrorism according to the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism. Unfortunately, the reality of recent years in Europe has shown that many of the formulas embedded in international agreements, as well as many international organizations in general, are incapable of addressing, much less preventing, the modern challenges we are facing……………………………………………….   https://bellona.org/news/nuclear-issues/2024-08-will-ukraine-attacks-on-russian-territory-lead-to-the-seizure-of-the-kursk-nuclear-plant

August 11, 2024 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Russia, safety, Ukraine