nuclear-news

COP28’s Nuclear Energy Promise Is Still a Long Way Off

The role nuclear energy might play in the future global energy mix should be supported by realistic analysis not on hope about what might be accomplished on hypothetical pathways.

During the past decade, the industry has shifted its
attention from constructing relatively large scale ~1,000 MWe pressurized
and boiling water reactors to considering small modular reactors, SMRs ≤
300 MWe. It is widely believed that SMRs will be of lower cost than the
disastrous cost levels experienced at the Vogtle, GA, and abandoned V.C.
Summer, South Carolina, plant construction. Accordingly, SMRs have
attracted a great deal of private and federal investment, but low overnight
capital cost has yet to be demonstrated.

Optimism arose beginning in
mid-2022 that nuclear deployment in the United States was entering a period
of growth. The GE-Hitatchi BWRX-300 MWe SMR was selected for deployment by
the Ontario Power Group at its Darlington site. It is under consideration
by Saskatchewan’s SaskPower and the TVA at Clinch River, Tennessee.
NuScale, partnering with Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS),
planned to combine twelve 77 MWe pressurized water modules to produce a 924
MWe plant at the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Idaho Falls ID site by
2030. The DOE’s GEN IV Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program selected
X-Energy’s Xe-100 high-temperature gas reactor (four 80 MWe modules
ganged together to produce 320 MWe) and TerraPower’s 345 MWe molten salt
Natrium reactor, each to receive $110 million 50/50 cost share. X-Energy
has selected DOW’s Seadrift TX chemical plant as its first location.
TerraPower was selected at a retired coal plant at Kemmerer, WY, which
PacifiCorp will operate.

Toward the end of 2023, expectations collapsed.
COVID-19, unexpected inflation, and high borrowing rates have caused all
the early participants to extend their anticipated completion dates, exceed
initial cost targets, and indicate additional financing will be needed.
After the massive budget outlays of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act and
Inflation Reduction Act legislation, it is unlikely that major additional
support will come from the federal government.

In November, NuScale
announced the cancelation of its UAMPS project, delivering a major setback
to nuclear energy expectations. The DOE has provided $232 million for the
project since 2020, and the department has backed the project with a $1.4
billion cost-share deal. The project was abandoned because of the
substantial cost overruns and the unwillingness of UAMPS members to pay
higher prices for the off-take electricity.

Accordingly, the United States
will not have acquired a record declining unit cost on SMR reactors, at
least until the mid-2030s. In sum, we are confronted with an aspirational
goal for the growth of international nuclear energy deployment at
mid-century and a decidedly guarded assessment of nuclear energy progress
today based on conditions in the United States, the country with the
largest deployment of nuclear reactors and a history of leading the world
in nuclear technology. The role nuclear energy might play in the future
global energy mix should be supported by realistic analysis, not hope about
what might be accomplished on hypothetical pathways.

 The National Interest 2nd Jan 2024

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/techland/cop28%E2%80%99s-nuclear-energy-promise-still-long-way-208294

January 5, 2024 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | business and costs, USA