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Geopolitics has already doomed the second nuclear renaissance

The announcement is better seen as a piece of theatre, driven by the domestic political needs of the governments concerned (particularly the UK and France) than as a serious commitment.

JOHN QUIGGIN, DEC 21, 2023, https://johnquigginblog.substack.com/p/geopolitics-has-already-doomed-the?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=806934&post_id=139962407&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ise1&utm_medium=email

At the COP28 meeting, 22 countries including U.S., Canada, the UK, France, South Korea, and the UAE pledged to triple nuclear capacity by 2050. But it will be impossible to meet this pledge, or even to maintain currently nuclear capacity, while decoupling from Russian and Chinese suppliers, most notably Rosatom and China General Nuclear. Of 60 nuclear plants currently under construction, more than 40 are being built by Russian and Chinese firms.

The difficulties with the pledge can be illustrated by the abandonment of Finland’s proposed Hanhikivi 1 project, which was to be built by Rosatom and the difficulties being faced by the UK government in funding the proposed Sizewell C and Bradwell B projects, after forcing out CGN. CGNs recent withdrawal from the Hinkley C project has thrown this project, already under construction, into doubt. The remaining firm involved, state-owned French firm EDF, is massively indebted, and is also being pressed to support new construction in France.

The ability of the remaining Western large-scale nuclear firms to ramp up production capacity is very limited. Westinghouse has already been bankrupted by the Vogtle and VC Summer projects, while Kepco is in severe financial difficulty. Once the remaining handful of projects under construction by these firms is completed, they are likely to leave the business altogether.

The remaining hope is that of “small modular reactors”. But the number of such reactors required to triple nuclear capacity is immense, running well into the thousands. The abandonment of the Nuscale project (originally projected for 12 reactors, then 6) makes it highly unlikely that even pilot projects will be in operation until well into the 2030s.

The announcement is better seen as a piece of theatre, driven by the domestic political needs of the governments concerned (particularly the UK and France) than as a serious commitment. In this context, it is worth noting that the target of tripling capacity exactly matches the aspirational policy of the UK, announced under former PM Boris Johnson.

Compare the case of solar, where the commitment to decouple from China has already led to a large expansion of US capacity. Since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), more than 240 GW of manufacturing capacity has been announced across the solar supply chain. To summarise: decoupling will necessitate a huge expansion in renewables, while making growth in nuclear capacity virtually impossible.

December 21, 2023 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | politics international