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The German Environment Agency shows that a global tripling of nuclear capacity by 2050 is neither realistic nor needed to achieve climate goals

This factsheet analyzes the role of nuclear energy in global climate
scenarios. It shows that a global tripling of nuclear capacity until 2050
is neither realistic nor is it needed to achieve climate targets according
to the Paris agreement.

The factsheet presents an analysis of nine global
climate scenarios that achieve climate targets according to the Paris
agreement as well as two non-target scenarios with an emphasis on the role
of nuclear energy.

In order to assess how realistic these top-down
scenarios are, it compares these figures with the plans and programs of
governments for the expansion (or phase out) of nuclear power.

A tripling of today’s nuclear capacity of 370 GW would require 1.110 GW net
electrical capacity to be operational in 2050. If we assume a very high
sixty year lifetime for all nuclear reactors in operation and under
construction today, roughly 210 GW of the current nuclear fleet would still
be online in 2050.

Thus, a total of nearly 900 GW would have to be
constructed additionally between 2024 and 2050. Assuming a linear increase
in the rate of new construction up to 2050, starting with the amount of new
nuclear connected to the grid in 2023, in 2050 more than 60 GW would need
to be connected to the grid to meet the tripling nuclear target, compare
Figure 10.

This would be approximately twice the maximum historic capacity
connected to the grid in a single year. On average, more new capacity would
have to be added every year over 25 years as was the case at the historical
maximum in 1985. From these numbers, it is evident, that a tripling of
nuclear capacity until 2050 is neither realistic nor is it needed to
achieve climate targets according to the Paris agreement.

 German Environment 30th Nov 2023

8 Dec 23 https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/11850/publikationen/factsheet_nuclear_in_international_energy_scenarios.pdf>

December 10, 2023 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | climate change, Germany