Why Nuclear Power Expansion Predictions Failed
A University of Reading team of researchers looked back at a model that
predicted nuclear power would expand dramatically in order to assess the
efficacy of energy policies implemented today. Results published in the
journal Risk Analysis showed the team found simulations that inform energy
policy had unreliable assumptions built into them and that they need more
transparency about their limitations. To improve this they recommend new
ways to test simulations and be upfront about their uncertainties. This
includes methods like ‘sensitivity auditing’, which evaluates model
assumptions. The goal is to improve modeling and open up decision-making.
The widespread adoption of nuclear power was predicted by computer
simulations more than four decades ago.
Oil Price 26th Nov 2023
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